Lucky Luke
Well-Known Member
I haven't seen that 15% figure anywhere?
Not sure on the number but every hospital bed has an O2 outlet. So if a O2 mask isnt sufficient then its just a matter of hooking up a tube.
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Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.
- Thread starter abandonconflict
- Start date
Not sure on the number but every hospital bed has an O2 outlet. So if a O2 mask isnt sufficient then its just a matter of hooking up a tube.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Now that the thread is infested by "smart" people...
Burnvictim1
Member
Sorry, did I respond to you?
Lucky Luke
Well-Known Member
interesting article.
www.abc.net.au
Masks, antibiotics and hand sanitisers: Amid coronavirus, Australia's secret medical stockpile is now open
In secret locations across Australia, millions of dollars' worth of medical supplies — including masks, antibiotics and equipment such as basic hand sanitisers — are at the ready, wrapped up on huge pallets. They're about to be deployed.
www.abc.net.au
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I responded to your idiotic comment, free country 1st amendment and all that. Do you think the pandemic is a hoax like Donald says? Planning on going to any rallies? This is news you can use fool.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
people don’t seem to like you
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
It's mainly about how one measures it. If you're genuinely seeking impartial and scientifically minded analysis and not just to meme some jokes I made this thread for that. I have been ahead of this for a month.
So, if you just take the numbers being reported by the People's Republic of China (which I don't feel comfortable with but it's still the biggest picture we have) there are 37,362 active cases, of which 7,664 are critical condition. That's actually greater than 20% ICU admissions of the total of confirmed cases. However, most sources are now certain that Chinese definitions of confirmed cases are low-ball. They have changed the definition 6 times now.
If you look at the South Korean numbers you see very fast growing numbers of infected but far fewer ICU admissions. This, to me, indicates that most cases have not incubated to that point but that Seoul is just more honest and forward about how they track the spread while also actually tracking it more accurately and quickly. There are currently 2,891 active cases and only 7 are in the ICU.
The JAMA study out of China reported 81% of cases were mild and that a whopping 49% of critical cases were fatal.
Furthermore, that 81% (19% of cases being critical) number is very likely off. The number is likely much less worrisome because it is very likely that mild cases are in mostly not reported and therefore not confirmed. Total confirmed cases vs current ICU admissions indicates less than a 10% rate of critical cases but that's obviously a poor way to track this. The total confirmed case (including recovered) number vs the total confirmed fatalies indicates a fatality rate of 2.9%. Again, there are almost certainly more cases than have been confirmed so the CFR is likely less than that.
As I have been saying for a month, we need straight data before we can dismiss anything and we need to take this seriously. Most epidemiologists are saying that this virus certainly has the potential to kill tens of millions of people. It has a very high R0 (2.4-4) and a case fatality rate of at least 2% (a hundred times higher than flu) with a rate of ICU admission at least 10%. In regard to the R0, it may indeed be safe to accept the low end estimate of 2.4 because that actually comes from the cruise ship data. It's still alarmingly high and almost double the reproductive rate of the flu.
*edit* case fatality rate a hundred times higher than the flu where I said ten times higher
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Fogdog
Well-Known Member
The very beginning paragraph contains misinformation.interesting article.
Masks, antibiotics and hand sanitisers: Amid coronavirus, Australia's secret medical stockpile is now open
In secret locations across Australia, millions of dollars' worth of medical supplies — including masks, antibiotics and equipment such as basic hand sanitisers — are at the ready, wrapped up on huge pallets. They're about to be deployed.
In multiple secret locations across Australia, about $100 million worth of medical supplies — including 20 million masks, antibiotics, vaccines and equipment such as basic hand sanitisers — is sitting on huge pallets wrapped in plastic, ready to be deployed.
There is no tested and approved vaccine for this virus. Also, its a virus, so antibiotics don't apply. Nice that there will be enough masks, gloves and hand sanitizers available for hospitals. Better hope they have enough beds.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Antibiotics are actually a major part of the treatment regimen due to the risk of secondary bacterial infections actually finishing off a patient recovering from viral pneumonia. It is thought that this actually accounts for a vast majority of the fatalities (case fatality rate thought to be 2-3%) originally attributed to the 1918 influenza which is H1N1. H1N1 is swine flu, of which there was another pandemic in 2009 that infected a fifth of the world with a case fatality rate of 0.02%.
I agree though, the article was sensational bullshit.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
It seems that the government is appropriately preparing to ensure there are enough supplies for caregivers. Thanks for the explanation for why they are stockpiling antibiotics.
I wish the Trump administration could get it through their thick heads that this isn't a political problem. It's his fucking JOB to run the government.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
A pneumonia vaccination might help with some secondary complications and having a flu shot might not be a bad idea either for vulnerable older people.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Flu shots are a good idea for anybody who deals with older people too. I got a flu shot to reduce the chances of my transmitting the flu to people living in my mom's assisted living facility. They don't help with coronavirus but I guess the reason the Australian govt is stockpiling vaccines is to prevent the same kind of thing happening in care facilities for coronavirus patients should it come to that.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
The response is as concerning as the fucking virus, this is a hotspot for Christ sake, where is the response, and I haven't heard about them purchasing reliable foreign test kits that the they're making at a rate of 150k a day in S korea, I believe some of these are available and wonder if they are being flown in on an air force cargo plane to the nearby base pronto. Testing and PPE for medical staff are the priorities here.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Yep stay away unless yer near dead with the plague or something else and if ya got something else and end up in a hospital...
They should bring back bowing in China, this western handshaking is a bad idea! Also eat lots of raw garlic, works by keeping others at a safe distance with garlic breath that could knock ya down at 40 paces.
Grandpapy
Well-Known Member
Like Katrina, possibly Mexico will come to our rescue. It's looking like it's the best bet.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I've got an older sister in an assisted care facility too, visit almost every day with a Tim's coffee and a donut. I keep my flu shots up today too. I expect the place might be quarantined and I'm thinking of taking down an old laptop computer with skype on it and set to auto answer and put it in the corner.
Burnvictim1
Member
Are going to recommend Suicide next ?
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Not a bad idea.
They had a bout with norovirus a while back and asked us to stop visiting until they could give us the all clear. It took a couple of weeks.
The thought of my mom in there with a site lock down and no family support is hard for me to take. She has memory issues and forgets where she is. One time I came to visit and she was amazed that I was "able to find her". She needs frequent visits to keep her grounded.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
hahahahahahaha