DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Hence the massive PR aid program with PPE and perhaps even mass produced respirators, sales will also be brisk.
Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.
- Thread starter abandonconflict
- Start date
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
You are vastly overstating the world's need for Chinese junk. The only draw in that regard is the price. If the US doesn't buy Chinese crap, it will hurt China just as much as the US. Respirators don't require much in the way of rare materials, even in the manufacturing process.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I should have said ventilators and PPE is disposable junk for the most part, things like respirators, glasses, gloves and bunny suits will be needed on a massive scale. I've dealt with American respirators, 3M, MSA and North, fit tested (using a machine) and trained others to fit test too, dunno how much of their supply chains are in China these days, probably most by now. I used to order them, cartridges, spare parts and accessories from Acklands Granger, among other responsibilities.
I'm no fan of the CPP, just looking at their moves in light of their massive fuck up, they seem to be doing the right thing of late, on this issue at least. Aid is a smart move on their part and Trump shitting on them for originating it is not a smart move on America's part. Even in the states they will delay dealing with trump's role in this until an appropriate time, right now the priorities are to do everything we can to help the situation and get organised.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
None of the top ten ventilator manufacturing companies are Chinese.
TOP 10 COMPANIES IN VENTILATORS MARKET
The Ventilators Market is expected to reach USD 7.72 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 15.8% during the forecast period of 2020 to 2027. Ventilatory intervention is often life-saving when patients with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience acute respiratory compromise...
We don't need Chinese junk flooding our markets . Their regulatory system is corrupt, their government is intrusive and massively into violating human rights. Their 5G products are considered spyware. I'd prefer if the US and the rest of the world treat them as a rogue state, shift supply chains elsewhere until they and their government clean up it's act.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I won't argue with ya. but if ya wanna move away from China, that's a federal policy decision and it will take years to accomplish and probably cost a lot too. You will need to start with direct online sales from China to the west and such a policy must be coordinated with allies, we all share the same concerns. Ebay, Amazon, Banggood etc. are pipelines directly into North America, they have favorable postage rates, pay no customs or sales tax here either on most stuff. We get cheap stuff though and not just at Walmart.None of the top ten ventilator manufacturing companies are Chinese.
TOP 10 COMPANIES IN VENTILATORS MARKET
The Ventilators Market is expected to reach USD 7.72 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 15.8% during the forecast period of 2020 to 2027. Ventilatory intervention is often life-saving when patients with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience acute respiratory compromise...meticulousblog.org
We don't need Chinese junk flooding our markets . Their regulatory system is corrupt, their government is intrusive and massively into violating human rights. Their 5G products are considered spyware. I'd prefer if the US and the rest of the world treat them as a rogue state, shift supply chains elsewhere until they and their government clean up it's act.
The PR move by China to provide aid is a smart move on their part, is my observation, coming clean helps too.
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DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
You won't be looking for Cadillacs, just a ripped off 5 or 10 year old western design they started cranking out en mass to meet their domestic epidemic needs. I'm sure someone has figured out the potential demand for them, you won't find them on the top 50 list, but they will sell like hotcakes.
Lucky Luke
Well-Known Member
In fairness humans have been eating bush meat for thousands of years. Hunters and fishermen still do.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Actually, those are just darn good life-saving ventilators and yes, a person with COVID-19 complications needs them. On top of that, these are the units people in ICUs already know how to use.
You are totally clueless about this issue. The Chinese are ordering more ventilators from a Swiss company. They aren't buyers, not suppliers.
Italy may have less than a quarter of the breathing machines necessary to help patients as infections fill their lungs with fluid, Andreas Wieland, chief executive of the world’s largest ventilator maker Hamilton Medical, told Reuters.
“There’s a huge discrepancy between available ventilators and the need,” Wieland said in an interview, adding that the U.S. Army is among customers looking to order more. “Turkey has ordered many ventilators, China has ordered many devices, the United States – actually, everyone is ordering.”
Germany, Italy rush to buy life-saving ventilators as manufacturers warn of shortages
Germany and Italy spearheaded a national scramble for ventilators as manufacture...
That being said, the US isn't going to cause a shortage. Trump seems completely satisfied with the way he's handling the problem (a ten out of ten) and told the states to take their needless worries elsewhere, not to him.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Never claimed expertise or special knowledge, just reasonable conjecture and it's still possible, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. It is a reasonable assumption and you are ignoring the dynamic nature of the situation. Sure the Chinese are in a scramble for ventilators, everybody is, but that's not to say they don't have a program to produce machines, the article simply does not say. It is a reasonable assumption that they have such a program in the works, I might see if I can dredge up evidence of it, but it's not really important to me and I'm lazy.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Find something you know to ramble on about.
doublejj
Well-Known Member
lock him up....Actually, those are just darn good life-saving ventilators and yes, a person with COVID-19 complications needs them. On top of that, these are the units people in ICUs already know how to use.
You are totally clueless about this issue. The Chinese are ordering more ventilators from a Swiss company. They aren't buyers, not suppliers.
Italy may have less than a quarter of the breathing machines necessary to help patients as infections fill their lungs with fluid, Andreas Wieland, chief executive of the world’s largest ventilator maker Hamilton Medical, told Reuters.
“There’s a huge discrepancy between available ventilators and the need,” Wieland said in an interview, adding that the U.S. Army is among customers looking to order more. “Turkey has ordered many ventilators, China has ordered many devices, the United States – actually, everyone is ordering.”
Germany, Italy rush to buy life-saving ventilators as manufacturers warn of shortages
Germany and Italy spearheaded a national scramble for ventilators as manufacture...www.reuters.com
That being said, the US isn't going to cause a shortage. Trump seems completely satisfied with the way he's handling the problem (a ten out of ten) and told the states to take their needless worries elsewhere, not to him.
rkymtnman
Well-Known Member
no, make him do meet and greets at every -19 hotspot. and then meet with the whole family to discuss their weekly grift.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
This is a place where ideas are exchanged and you appear to want to silence me, arrogantly and unjustly I might add. Everybody is a layman outside of their area of expertise, even and engineer foggy. I will continue to "ramble on" as you say, as you will continue to blunder socially. This is not a goddamn scientific or engineering forum, it's a pot forum where potheads discuss the events of the day and try to help each other while sharing information and ideas. I'm not talking conspiracy theories, but making reasonable conjectures, your reactions are emotional in motivation and rude. I merely swear, but you deliberately seek to offend, you have repeatedly complained about me giving advice, while hypocritically giving it yourself, I just smiled and gathered what wisdom I could. I'm a nice guy foggy, but I'm nobody's doormat, use me as one at your peril.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
In a technocracy, not every idea deserves a round of applause.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
In mid-Feb, a report detailing how many ventilators and qualified staff to care for people on them was prepared with a stiff warning that supply was not adequate to respond to a surge in patients due to the nascent epidemic:
There is recognition of this problem in the US:
www.huffpost.com
The most bleak assessment was this:
The sources HuffPost consulted were skeptical that the industry as a whole could replicate that figure. They speculated that quickly increasing capacity by 20% or 30% was possible, and maybe with an all-hands-on-deck approach 50% or even 100% within a few months. “But if you’re talking like five times the number we have now, I mean that’s just a huge undertaking that would take time,” said Larry Smith, a retired medical device executive who is now director of graduate business programs at Rider University.
It discusses cutting regulatory requirements, eliminating certification requirements for new manufacturing sites, even 3-D printers. If any of these solutions are to be used, the time is now and requires action by the federal government. Trump's administration bungled something as simple as testing. Gawd help us if they get involved with manufacturing a sophisticated medical device.
the article ends with the only practical solution to the problem.
The surest solution to the ventilator shortage is to slow the spread of the pandemic, to “flatten the curve” of the infected population, so that the shortages never happen. But the surge of patients is likely to test the U.S. health care system’s capacity even under the best of circumstances, which is why the federal government should be acting now to increase that capacity as much as possible.
There is recognition of this problem in the US:
How To Get More Ventilators And What To Do If We Can't
Factory capacity can be ramped up, but the components come from overseas and they could be hard to find.
The most bleak assessment was this:
The sources HuffPost consulted were skeptical that the industry as a whole could replicate that figure. They speculated that quickly increasing capacity by 20% or 30% was possible, and maybe with an all-hands-on-deck approach 50% or even 100% within a few months. “But if you’re talking like five times the number we have now, I mean that’s just a huge undertaking that would take time,” said Larry Smith, a retired medical device executive who is now director of graduate business programs at Rider University.
It discusses cutting regulatory requirements, eliminating certification requirements for new manufacturing sites, even 3-D printers. If any of these solutions are to be used, the time is now and requires action by the federal government. Trump's administration bungled something as simple as testing. Gawd help us if they get involved with manufacturing a sophisticated medical device.
the article ends with the only practical solution to the problem.
The surest solution to the ventilator shortage is to slow the spread of the pandemic, to “flatten the curve” of the infected population, so that the shortages never happen. But the surge of patients is likely to test the U.S. health care system’s capacity even under the best of circumstances, which is why the federal government should be acting now to increase that capacity as much as possible.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Watch this and understand the strategy.
WORDZcuresCovid
Member
I'm pretty good at the whole paranoia thing. How come they aint found and nuked the bat cave this originated in/ have they found 1 corona bat? or just bats have a corona like virus? Fuck dis shit.
WORDZcuresCovid
Member
I'ma finally buy one of them drones all the people are using now days and I'm fucking taking every damn bat out that I can find. Fuckin air rats aint taking me or mine out. We got summtin for that.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
The fatality rate is apparently increasing based on the availability of reliable data. As of March 18, there are 90,746 cases in which an outcome has been confirmed. Of those cases, the number in which that outcome was death stands at 7,984. This means that the worst case scenario is now a fatality rate of 9%. Any estimated fatality rate above 9% should be categorically rejected. Also, it is important to note that the fatality rate varies from country to country based on a number of variables and that it is not a fixed number and there are many things that can be done in society to minimize the death toll. So remember, the fatality rate will change often.
It should also be noted that there are two solid reasons to believe that this maximum fatality rate is about double the actual fatality rate. One is that research has shown that about half of the actual number of cases are confirmed. The other is simply derived from looking at South Korean stats apart from the rest of the world. South Korea has taken a different approach to dealing with this pandemic than other countries have. Instead of ordering people to comply with huge lockdowns and assuming that people simply do not understand, they have taken several key steps that should be considered exemplary. It is based on accepting that people are smart enough to understand and being transparent.
1) Seoul has procured an abundance of reliable and fast test kits. This is essential to tracking accurate statistics in a timely manner.
2) Every single individual suspected of having been in contact with an infected person is tested, even if they go abroad, and anyone who wants to be tested is also. Positive tests lead to more suspected cases and in this way, the state isn't so far behind the spread.
3) They have made use of the fact that almost every citizen has a smartphone to create an AI system that tracks where infected individuals have been and can therefore see more cases in which others may have come into contact with the virus. If a person goes into a building where a confirmed case has been they get an alert on their phone telling them to take precautions and said buildings have teams sent out to put up signs and sanitize.
4) TRANSPARENCY. They immediately report on their findings to the appropriate disease control authorities and this has the added benefit of providing the world with the most reliable statistics and epidemiological data.
South Korea stats:
total cases: 8,413
deaths: 84
recovered: 1,540
active cases 6,749
critical cases 59
For simple math that can give you an idea but certainly won't pass peer review, take the number of critical cases and the number of active cases and you've got a simple equation to figure out a rough hospitalization rate. So in Korea, about 8% of active cases are critical. For such an equation to figure out a rough fatality rate, you'd take the sum of the recovered and the dead to come up with the number of cases with an outcome and then divide this number by the number of the dead. Doing this would give a worst case scenario for the fatality rate in South Korea. I would like to caution, profusely, that this is far from scientific and the fatality rate is certainly below 5% in South Korea because these numbers will be mitigated by the fact that there are still more cases than have been confirmed as asymptomatic cases will still invariably occur. Another mitigating factor is that doctors may be reluctant to declare a patient recovered due to caution.
It should also be noted that there are two solid reasons to believe that this maximum fatality rate is about double the actual fatality rate. One is that research has shown that about half of the actual number of cases are confirmed. The other is simply derived from looking at South Korean stats apart from the rest of the world. South Korea has taken a different approach to dealing with this pandemic than other countries have. Instead of ordering people to comply with huge lockdowns and assuming that people simply do not understand, they have taken several key steps that should be considered exemplary. It is based on accepting that people are smart enough to understand and being transparent.
1) Seoul has procured an abundance of reliable and fast test kits. This is essential to tracking accurate statistics in a timely manner.
2) Every single individual suspected of having been in contact with an infected person is tested, even if they go abroad, and anyone who wants to be tested is also. Positive tests lead to more suspected cases and in this way, the state isn't so far behind the spread.
3) They have made use of the fact that almost every citizen has a smartphone to create an AI system that tracks where infected individuals have been and can therefore see more cases in which others may have come into contact with the virus. If a person goes into a building where a confirmed case has been they get an alert on their phone telling them to take precautions and said buildings have teams sent out to put up signs and sanitize.
4) TRANSPARENCY. They immediately report on their findings to the appropriate disease control authorities and this has the added benefit of providing the world with the most reliable statistics and epidemiological data.
South Korea stats:
total cases: 8,413
deaths: 84
recovered: 1,540
active cases 6,749
critical cases 59
For simple math that can give you an idea but certainly won't pass peer review, take the number of critical cases and the number of active cases and you've got a simple equation to figure out a rough hospitalization rate. So in Korea, about 8% of active cases are critical. For such an equation to figure out a rough fatality rate, you'd take the sum of the recovered and the dead to come up with the number of cases with an outcome and then divide this number by the number of the dead. Doing this would give a worst case scenario for the fatality rate in South Korea. I would like to caution, profusely, that this is far from scientific and the fatality rate is certainly below 5% in South Korea because these numbers will be mitigated by the fact that there are still more cases than have been confirmed as asymptomatic cases will still invariably occur. Another mitigating factor is that doctors may be reluctant to declare a patient recovered due to caution.
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
Yes, the truth must be out no matter how it looks through someones individual moralistic glasses.
On the other hand, humans can eat what they want and the way how cattle is processed creates also alot of health problems, to cite this:
True! see also Kuru vs. BSE, the one derived from native africans but the other is a modern western disease - both are
Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Plus (esp. the western) attitude to throw around antibiotics mindlessly is one of the driving factors behind MRSA (etc) which is also of huge health concerns.
I found your thread one of the best threads on SARS-CoV-2 and it's been immensely helpful to evaluate the future scenario. I read it from the beginning and to my eyes it's been crystal clear how that monster did evolve... Unfortunately the politicans were too dumb to anticipate this threat - what are we actually paying these idiots for? 1 months ago our health minister stated "we are already well prepared blablabla" - now everything is in lockdown, when in fact, the dissemination of this virus could have prevented by a more earlier lockdown.
You realize there's still youngsters dying due to diseases which we could 100% eradicate with a vaccine but some people are still too dumb to comply?
SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus which are known to mutate quickly (like Influenca for example). If we don't find a vaccine perhaps even a more deadly genotype evolves as it spreads throughout the world - then we'll have to kill all infected & burn their bodies to ash. Not trying to cause panic now but this is a theoretical but possible worst-case scenario my friend - you better wake up.