Heisenberg
Well-Known Member
In my quest to understand why some false beliefs persist, I have found that it's easiest to start with the simple things. The same mistakes of logic and perception that cause silly beliefs like superstitions are also responsible for the big false beliefs of this world..like ghosts, alien abductions and yes, god. This post covers only two of those mistakes.
The first thing that comes into play in many superstitions is a mistake of logic called, post hoc ergo proctor hoc, which means, after this therefore because of this.
You walk under a ladder and then a paint bucket falls on your head. A black cat crosses your path and then your horse breaks it's leg. Someone gives you the evil eye and then you get the flu. All of these things assume a relationship that isn't really there. Because evolution has hardwired the human brain to see and recognize patterns, we sometimes see patterns where none exist.
The second thing that happens here is called confirmation bias. That is the tendency humans have to forget the events which do not reinforce their beliefs. In other words, you remember the hits and forget the misses. This comes into play a lot when psychics do a cold reading. You go away thinking they knew a lot about you because you don't remember all the stuff they got wrong.
A good example of confirmation bias is the belief that the rate of crime and emergencies are always higher during a full moon. Ask a cop who works the night shift and they will probably confirm that yea, a full moon seems to bring out the crazies. And if this cop is out there every night year after year, wouldn't he be the one to know?
A nurse looks around the emergency room and notes that they are much busier than normal, and the injuries coming in seem more severe than most nights. She turns to a doctor and asks him to look out the window and see if the moon is full. He looks and remarks that it's only half full. The nurse goes back to work and doesn't think anymore about it. If the doctor would have confirmed that the moon was full, it would have made an impression and she would remember for a long time that crazy night in the ER when the moon was full. We forget the misses and remember the hits. Confirmation bias.
So keep this in mind when you are trying to figure out the world. Humans are prone to mistakes, but making ourselves aware of those mistakes helps us avoid them.
The first thing that comes into play in many superstitions is a mistake of logic called, post hoc ergo proctor hoc, which means, after this therefore because of this.
You walk under a ladder and then a paint bucket falls on your head. A black cat crosses your path and then your horse breaks it's leg. Someone gives you the evil eye and then you get the flu. All of these things assume a relationship that isn't really there. Because evolution has hardwired the human brain to see and recognize patterns, we sometimes see patterns where none exist.
The second thing that happens here is called confirmation bias. That is the tendency humans have to forget the events which do not reinforce their beliefs. In other words, you remember the hits and forget the misses. This comes into play a lot when psychics do a cold reading. You go away thinking they knew a lot about you because you don't remember all the stuff they got wrong.
A good example of confirmation bias is the belief that the rate of crime and emergencies are always higher during a full moon. Ask a cop who works the night shift and they will probably confirm that yea, a full moon seems to bring out the crazies. And if this cop is out there every night year after year, wouldn't he be the one to know?
A nurse looks around the emergency room and notes that they are much busier than normal, and the injuries coming in seem more severe than most nights. She turns to a doctor and asks him to look out the window and see if the moon is full. He looks and remarks that it's only half full. The nurse goes back to work and doesn't think anymore about it. If the doctor would have confirmed that the moon was full, it would have made an impression and she would remember for a long time that crazy night in the ER when the moon was full. We forget the misses and remember the hits. Confirmation bias.
So keep this in mind when you are trying to figure out the world. Humans are prone to mistakes, but making ourselves aware of those mistakes helps us avoid them.
