Another Republican President, Another Recession.

WASHINGTON (AP) — A measure of inflation that is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve slipped last month in a sign that price pressures continue to ease.

The government reported Friday that prices rose 0.3% from January to February, decelerating from a 0.4% increase the previous month in a potentially encouraging trend for President Joe Biden’s re-election bid. Compared with 12 months earlier, though, prices rose 2.5% in February, up slightly from a 2.4% year-over-year gain in January.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, last month’s “core” prices suggested lower inflation pressures. These prices rose 0.3% from January to February, down from 0.5% the previous month. And core prices rose just 2.8% from 12 months earlier — the lowest such figure in nearly three years — down from 2.9% in January. Economists consider core prices to be a better gauge of the likely path of future inflation.

Friday’s report showed that a sizable jump in energy prices — up 2.3% — boosted the overall prices of goods by 0.5% in February. By contrast, inflation in services — a vast range of items ranging from hotel rooms and restaurant meals to healthcare and concert tickets — slowed to a 0.3% increase, from a 0.6% rise in January.

The figures also revealed that consumers, whose purchases drive most of the nation’s economic growth, surged 0.8% last month, up from a 0.2% gain in January. Some of that increase, though, reflected higher gasoline prices.

Annual inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, tumbled in 2023 after having peaked at 7.1% in mid-2022. Supply chain bottlenecks eased, reducing the costs of materials, and an influx of job seekers made it easier for employers to keep a lid on wage growth, one of the drivers of inflation.

Still, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% annual target, and opinion surveys have revealed public discontent that high prices are squeezing America’s households despite a sharp pickup in average wages.

The acceleration of inflation began in the spring of 2021 as the economy roared back from the pandemic recession, overwhelming factories, ports and freight yards with orders. In March 2022, the Fed began raising its benchmark interest rate to try to slow borrowing and spending and cool inflation, eventually boosting its rate 11 times to a 23-year high. Those sharply higher rates worked as expected in helping tame inflation.

The jump in borrowing costs for companies and households was also expected, though, to cause widespread layoffs and tip the economy into a recession. That didn’t happen. The economy has grown at a healthy annual rate of 2% or more for six straight quarters. Job growth has been solid. And the unemployment rate has remained below 4% for 25 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

The combination of easing inflation and sturdy growth and hiring has raised expectations that the Fed will achieve a difficult “soft landing″ — taming inflation without causing a recession. If inflation continues to ease, the Fed will likely begin cutting its key rate in the coming months. Rate cuts would, over time, lead to lower costs for home and auto loans, credit card borrowing and business loans. They might also aid Biden’s re-election prospects.

Michael Pearce, economist at Oxford Economics, said that even a 0.3% January-to-February uptick in consumer prices was probably still too hot for the Fed’s inflation fighters. The central bank has signaled that it expects to cut rates three times this year, and Wall Street investors have been eagerly awaiting the move. Pearce wrote that a June rate cut now looks more likely than the May cut that he and his Oxford colleagues had previously expected.

The Fed tends to favor the inflation gauge that the government issued Friday — the personal consumption expenditures price index — over the better-known consumer price index. The PCE index tries to account for changes in how people shop when inflation jumps. It can capture, for example, when consumers switch from pricier national brands to cheaper store brands.

In general, the PCE index tends to show a lower inflation level than CPI. In part, that’s because rents, which have been high, carry double the weight in the CPI that they do in the PCE.

Friday’s government report showed that Americans’ incomes rose 0.3% in February, down sharply from a 1% gain in January, which had been boosted by once-a-year cost-of-living increases in Social Security and other government benefits.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. job openings barely changed in February, staying at historically high levels in a sign that the American job market remains strong.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 8.76 million job vacancies in February, up modestly from 8.75 million in January and about what economists had forecast.

But the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed that layoffs ticked up to 1.7 million in February from 1.6 million in January, highest since March 2023. The number of Americans quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence they can find better pay or working conditions elsewhere – rose modestly to 3.5 million.

Monthly job openings are down from a peak of 12.2 million in March 2022 but are still at a high level. Before 2021, they’d never topped 8 million.

The high level of vacancies is a sign of the job market’s strength and endurance. When the Federal Reserve began raising its benchmark interest rates two years ago to combat inflation, most economists expected the higher borrowing costs to send the United States into recession.

Instead, the economy has continued to grow and employers have been seeking new workers and holding on to the ones they already have. Although the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, it’s come in below 4% for 25 straight months, longest such streak since the 1960s.

At the same time, the higher rates have brought inflation down. In February, consumer prices were up 3.2% from a year earlier — down from a four-decade high year-over-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

The combination of easing inflation and sturdy job growth has raised hopes the Fed is managing to pull off a “soft landing’’ — taming inflation without triggering a recession. The Fed stopped raising rates last July and has signaled that it plans to reverse course and cut rates three times in 2024. But it appears to be in no hurry to start, given the economy’s strength and with inflation still above the central bank’s 2% target.

“Job openings are still elevated relative to pre-pandemic readings, signaling still-strong demand for workers,’’ said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “A strong labor market backdrop coupled with inflation receding but remaining above target supports the (Fed’s) current patient stance on future policy decisions.’’

Compared to layoffs, the steady drop in job openings is a painless way to cool a labor market that has been red hot, easing upward pressure on wages that can lead to higher prices.

Hiring likely remained healthy last month. Economists expect the March jobs report, out Friday, to show that employers added nearly 193,000 jobs and that the unemployment dipped to 3.8%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet.{?QUOTE]
A workman secures sheathing at a residential construction site in Mount Prospect, Ill., Monday, March 18, 2024. On Tuesday, April 2, 2024, the Labor Department reports on job openings and labor turnover for February. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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GUANGZHOU, China (AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on China on Friday to address manufacturing overcapacity that she said risks causing global economic dislocation, and to create a level playing field for American companies and workers.

Starting a five-day visit in one of China’s major industrial and export hubs, she raised what the U.S. considers to be unfair Chinese trade practices in talks with senior Chinese officials.

“The United States seeks a healthy economic relationship with China that benefits both sides,” she said ahead of a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in the southern city of Guangzhou. “But a healthy relationship must provide a level playing field for firms and workers in both countries.”

Earlier, she said at an an event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China that there are “Chinese practices that are tilting the playing field away from American workers and firms.”

He didn’t get into specifics in his remarks before the media but said that both sides “need to properly respond to key concerns of the other side.”

High on Yellen’s list is the overcapacity issue. Chinese government subsidies and other policy support have encouraged solar panel and EV makers in China to invest in factories, building far more production capacity than the domestic market can absorb.

The massive scale of production has driven down costs and ignited price wars for green technologies, a boon for consumers and efforts to reduce global dependence on fossil fuels. But Western governments fear that that capacity will flood their markets with low-priced exports, threatening American and European jobs.

Yellen, the first Cabinet-level official to visit China since President Joe Biden met Chinese leader Xi Jinping last November, told the vice premier and the governor of Guangdong province in separate meetings that it is important for the U.S. and China to have open and direct communication on areas of disagreement.

“This includes the issue of China’s industrial overcapacity, which the United States and other countries are concerned can cause global spillovers,” she said during her meeting with the governor.

Guangzhou is the provincial capital of Guangdong, a Chinese manufacturing and export hub that is home to telecom giant Huawei and BYD, China’s largest EV maker. Huawei has been hit hard by U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China and is at the vanguard of Chinese efforts to become self-sufficient and a leader in technology.

Yellen, who will also visit Beijing on her trip, met with both U.S. and European and Japanese business representatives before her meeting with He.

“I’ve heard from many American business executives that operating in China can be challenging,” she said at the American Chamber event in an auditorium at a marbled convention center in the Baiyun District of Guangzhou.

Citing a recent survey by the Chamber that found that a third of American firms in China say they have experienced unfair treatment compared with local competitors, Yellen said the U.S. has seen China “pursue unfair economic practices, including imposing barriers to access for foreign firms and taking coercive actions against American companies.”

“I strongly believe that this doesn’t only hurt these American firms: Ending these unfair practices would benefit China by improving the business climate here. I intend to raise these issues in meetings this week,” she said in her speech.

China has pushed back against the overcapacity concerns expressed by both the U.S. and Europe.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said earlier this week that the growth in Chinese EV and solar exports is conducive to green development globally and the result of the international division of labor and market demand.

He accused the U.S. of interfering with free trade by restricting technology exports to China.

“As for who is doing non-market manipulation, the fact is for everyone to see,” he said. “The U.S. has not stopped taking measures to contain China’s trade and technology. This is not ‘de-risking,’ rather, it is creating risks.”

Yellen said at the American Chamber event that “excess capacity is a concern that many countries share — from a range of advanced and developing countries and is not something that’s new.”

“This is not anti-China policy,” she said. “It’s an effort for us to mitigate the risks from the inevitable global economic dislocation that will result if China doesn’t adjust its policies.”

Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing — an alliance of businesses and the U.S. Steelworkers union — told The Associated Press ahead of Yellen’s trip that there are low expectations about the Chinese government’s response.

“One thing that Yellen hopefully can and should say is that the U.S. is prepared to use all the tools that we have available through policy to ensure that China’s industrial overcapacity doesn’t negatively harm our economic and national security interests,” he said.

The Alliance released a report in February that says the introduction of inexpensive Chinese autos to the American market “could end up being an extinction-level event for the U.S. auto sector.” The U.S. auto sector accounts for 3% of America’s GDP, according to the report.

Yellen told reporters Wednesday during an Alaska refueling stop en route to Asia that the U.S. “won’t rule out” tariffs to respond to China’s heavily subsidized manufacturing of green energy products.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers delivered another outpouring of jobs in March, adding a sizzling 303,000 workers to their payrolls and bolstering hopes that the economy can vanquish inflation without succumbing to a recession in the face of high interest rates.

Last month’s job growth was up from a revised 270,000 in February and was far above the 200,000 economists had forecast. By any measure, it amounted to a strong month of hiring, and it reflected the economy’s ability to withstand the pressure of high borrowing costs resulting from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. With the nation’s consumers continuing to spend, many employers have kept hiring to meet steady customer demand.

Friday’s report from the Labor Department also showed that the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% from 3.9% in February. That rate has now come in below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

Normally, a blockbuster bounty of new jobs would fan worries that the additional spending from those new workers could accelerate inflation. But the March jobs report showed that wage growth was mild last month, which might allay any such fears. Average hourly wages were up 4.1% from a year earlier, the smallest year-over-year increase since mid-2021. But hourly pay rose 0.3% from February to March after increasing 0.2% the month before.

The economy is sure to weigh on Americans’ minds as the November presidential vote nears and they assess President Joe Biden’s re-election bid. Many people still feel squeezed by the inflation surge that erupted in the spring of 2021. Eleven rate hikes by the Fed have helped send inflation tumbling from its peak over the past year and a half. But average prices are still about 18% higher than they were in February 2021 — a fact for which Biden might pay a political price.

The Fed’s policymakers are tracking the state of the economy, the job market and inflation to determine when to begin cutting interest rates from their multi-decade highs — a move eagerly awaited by Wall Street traders, businesses, homebuyers and people in need of cars, household appliances and other major purchases that are typically financed. Rate cuts by the Fed would likely lead, over time, to lower borrowing rates across the economy.

The central bank’s policymakers started raising rates two years ago to try to tame inflation, which by mid-2022 was running at a four-decade high. Those rate hikes — 11 of them from March 2022 through July 2023 — helped drastically slow inflation. Consumer prices were up 3.2% in February from a year earlier, far below a year-over-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Yet the sharply higher borrowing costs for individuals and companies that resulted from the Fed’s rate hikes were widely expected to trigger a recession, with waves of layoffs and a painful rise in unemployment. Yet to the surprise of just about everyone, the economy has kept growing steadily and employers have kept hiring at a healthy pace. Layoffs remain low.

Some economists believe that a rise in productivity — the amount of output that workers produce per hour — made it easier for companies to hire, raise pay and post bigger profits without having to raise prices. In addition, an influx of immigrants into the job market is believed to have addressed labor shortages and slowed upward pressure on wage growth. This helped allow inflation to cool even as the economy kept growing.

In the meantime, the Fed has signaled that it expects to cut rates three times this year. But it is awaiting more inflation data to gain further confidence that annual price increases are heading toward its 2% target. Some economists have begun to question whether the Fed will need to cut rates anytime soon in light of the consistently durable U.S. economy.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week as the labor market continues to thrive despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool it.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that filings for unemployment claims for the week ending April 6 fell by 11,000 to 211,000 from the previous week’s 222,000.

The four-week average of claims, which smooths out some of the week-to-week swings, fell by 250 to 214,250.

Weekly unemployment claims are considered a proxy for the number of U.S. layoffs in a given week and a sign of where the job market is headed. They have remained at historically low levels since the pandemic purge of millions of jobs in the spring of 2020.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate 11 times beginning in March of 2022 in a bid to stifle the four-decade high inflation that took hold after the economy bounced back from the COVID-19 recession of 2020. Part of the Fed’s goal was to loosen the labor market and cool wage growth, which it believes contributed to persistently high inflation.

Many economists thought there was a chance the rapid rate hikes could tip the country into recession, but jobs have remained plentiful and the economy has held up better than expected thanks to strong consumer spending.

In March, U.S. employers added a surprising 303,000 jobs, yet another example of the U.S. economy’s resilience in the face of high interest rates. The unemployment rate dipped from 3.9% to 3.8% and has now remained below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

Though layoffs remain at low levels, companies have been announcing more job cuts recently, mostly across technology and media. Google parent company Alphabet, Apple, eBay, TikTok, Snap, Amazon, Cisco Systems and the Los Angeles Times have all recently announced layoffs.

Outside of tech and media, UPS, Macy’s and Levi Strauss also have recently cut jobs.

In total, 1.82 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits during the week that ended March 30, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week and the most since January.

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