VIANARCHRIS
Well-Known Member
Ross Romaniuk/Postmedia/FileLegislation to legalize casual marijuana consumption is supposed to be introduced in parliament next spring.
Analysis
A large majority of Canadians wants marijuana to be legalized and made available for sale to every adult in the country, regardless of medical need. Right?
Maybe not. A new survey conducted by a major financial advisory company and obtained by the National Post ahead of its release casts some doubt on that piece of conventional wisdom. Deloitte LLP surveyed 5,000 Canadians 19 years and older this summer and found that only 40 per cent favour marijuana legalization, with almost as many opposed, throwing shade on one of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s key campaign promises from the 2015 federal election.
In B.C., the province most closely associated with pot production and consumption, 42 per cent of people surveyed were in favour of legalization, with 33 per cent opposed. Next door in Alberta, more people were actually opposed to legalization than in favour of it. In Ontario, 40 per cent were in favour with 36 per cent opposed, while Quebeckers were almost evenly divided.
The Deloitte findings seem at odds with results from similar but smaller surveys conducted earlier this year by other firms, when as many as 75 per cent of respondents nationwide said they supported legalization.
The latest survey comes just ahead of a final report from the federal Task Force on Marijuana Legalization and Regulation, to be delivered next month to Trudeau and his cabinet. Chaired by former Liberal cabinet minister Anne McLellan, the nine-person task force is meant to “provide advice for the design of a new legislative and regulatory framework” for recreational pot.
Marijuana enthusiasts rally at the Hill for 4/20 2:00
Trudeau may never turn back from his commitment to make Canada the first G7 country to allow casual marijuana consumption, but implementing the scheme will be complicated. Legislation based on the McLellan report is supposed to be introduced in parliament next spring, but Canadians won’t be buying from government-sanctioned pot shops for some time yet.
Canada’s existing international treaty obligations may have to be “adjusted,” as bureaucrats working on the file acknowledged, in a briefing note sent to the prime minister and obtained earlier this year by The Canadian Press. But that’s just one of the serious challenges that will keep recreational pot on the back-burner.
Who will be allowed to grow marijuana that’s meant for the casual consumer? Where will it be sold, in what form, and at what potency? How much tax will Ottawa apply to the recreational-use product? What role will the provinces play? And what is the point — and predicted outcome — of all this?
According to Trudeau and his ministers responsible, the main objective behind legalization is the removal of criminal elements from pot production and sales. That could work. But don’t expect a big windfall to follow. Placing high taxes on legal pot would simply return consumers to the underground market.
Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesEven in B.C., the province most closely associated with pot production and consumption, only 42 per cent of people surveyed were in favour of legalization, and 33 per cent opposed.
Washington State fell into the “tax-the-hell-out-of-it” trap when it legalized recreational pot two years ago, and the black market flourished. State authorities had to scale back their marijuana taxation rates in order to direct consumers into sanctioned pot shops. Even so, illicit marijuana sales still account for about 28 per cent of the entire market, says Rick Garza, director of the Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board.
Deloitte asked its 5,000 respondents — 1,000 of whom identified themselves as current recreational pot consumers — to name their preferred retail channel for legal weed. One-quarter of those surveyed chose “pharmacies,” while 18 per cent said they prefer privately owned pot shops, and another 18 per cent picked “new government-owned marijuana retailers.” Existing government and private liquor stores, groceries and supermarkets were less popular options.
Perhaps it’s little wonder the Shoppers Drug Mart retail chain announced this week it has applied for a federal licence to sell medical marijuana to patients with a prescription.
Currently, Canada’s 40,000-plus medical marijuana patients with valid prescriptions are allowed to grow their own weed, buy from other individual growers with personal-use permits, or purchase from large-scale, highly scrutinized and regulated “licensed producers” who distribute their products using mail delivery only.
There are no federally approved, bricks-and-mortar pot shops in Canada at present, only illicit dispensaries in such places as Vancouver and Toronto. Should a chain such as Shoppers get a toehold in the medical marijuana distribution network, asking permission to sell recreational pot seems a logical next step.
If there’s one thing on which everyone seems to agree, the appetite for weed remains strong, despite warnings from the McLellan task force and others about potentially adverse impacts to health. Deloitte reports that based on its survey results, the annual market for legal weed in Canada ranges from $4.9 billion to $8.7 billion, which is in line with projections from financial analysts. Deloitte also sees a “potential upside” of at least $22.6 billion per year in Canada, should marijuana be legalized.
And that is why government-approved pot is coming to a neighbourhood near you, eventually, like it or not.
