Old-ass Bernie

[hanimmal]

This is gonna make some here howl, don't shoot the messenger! No dog in the fight, just posting relevant news. Old Bernie ain't doing so bad so far, if he makes it he'll need a good running mate and heir apparent to take on Trump. Liz would be a natural choice for this and to use as a policy wonk for healthcare etc. They are fairly close ideologically and could figure out something, the main thing is to beat Trump and win the GOP senate by the largest margin. Whoever that is is it's up to Americans to decide, so far yer feeling the burn, in some cases it's an arsehole that's burning!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sanders tops another poll just before the Iowa caucus
Bernie Sanders’s surge in momentum can be clearly seen in his 7-point lead in a January New York Time/Siena College poll.

Sanders tops another poll a week before the Iowa caucus

Bernie Sanders’s surge in momentum can be clearly seen in his 7-point lead in a January New York Times/Siena College poll.

www.vox.com

With the 2020 Iowa caucus just over one week away, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has another favorable Iowa poll under his belt — one in which he’s leading the field by 7 percentage points.

A new New York Times/Siena College poll, taken between January 20-23 and released Saturday, shows Sanders winning 25 percent of the vote in Iowa — a 6 percentage point rise since Siena’s last survey in October.

The poll found the Vermont senator followed by the race’s two moderate frontrunners: former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with 18 percent support, and former Vice President Joe Biden at 17 percent.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who Siena pollsters found leading the field in October with 22 percent support, saw her polling fall to 15 percent. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), who has seen some increase in her level of support nationally and in early states in recent weeks, was found to be fifth in the state, with 8 percent support. The poll’s margin of error is 4.8 percentage points.

This isn’t the first time Sanders has topped a recent Iowa poll: a Des Moines Register poll released two weeks ago showed Sanders with 20 percent support, 5 percentage points higher than the previous Register poll. He was followed by Warren at 17 percent, Buttigieg at 16 percent, and Biden at 15 percent.

And as Vox’s Ella Nilsen has reported, Sanders seems to be having a moment: He led a national poll for the first time last week, coming in 3 percentage points above habitual national frontrunner Biden, and a January New Hampshire poll conducted by WBUR released Thursday found him first in that state as well, leading the field by 12 percentage points.

That being said, it’s important to note that Iowa caucusgoers — and New Hampshire voters — are notorious for waiting until the last minute to make up their minds, which means that the results of the primary are far from set in stone. Saturday’s Siena poll, for instance, found 39 percent of likely caucusgoers said they haven’t yet made their minds up, a portion of the electorate so large it would be wrong to say there is a definite frontrunner — for now.

Warren’s loss appears to be Sanders’s gain
Biden and Buttigieg’s levels of support among Iowans remained completely stagnant between October and January, according to the Siena pollsters — what changed were Sanders and Warren’s numbers, with Warren’s loss appearing to be Sanders’s gain.
more...

Iowa is weird, you have to look at it on a top 5 spectrum.

Because after the first round of voting, the top 5 go on to the second round, and then all the people who voted for the candidates outside of the top 5 can change their votes.

Since Bernie has been campainging as long as Trump and has the same backing his voters are locked in, but how many of the remaining voters will see him as their 2nd choice.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out, he was always the top candidate in NH from what I remember, and Biden in South Carolina. Super Tuesday is when this will all shake out.

 

[PJ Diaz]

Why cut out the Missouri and rest of the poll?
View attachment 4464579

I was trying to help validate @UncleBuck with his previous statement.

 

[SFnone]

here is the problem with bernie, (amongst other things) ... he may very well win the democratic nomination, but it might be something like 60-40 of dems who vote for him. of the 40% that don't vote for him, there WILL be people who don't vote for him in the main election either, or straight up vote for trump- whether that be because they find him too liberal, or they refuse to reward those who screwed Hillary and helped put trump in the white house to begin with, or because they just don't fall for the bs he shouts out like his mainly white millennial base does. On the flip side, if he doesn't win the nomination, there is the risk of his supporters not voting (again), in an attempt to prove some point that nobody else can see or understand. it sounds stupid, but people are stupid... and petty and opinionated... and with the republicans already rigging the elections, bernie just being in it at all creates the potential for an easy win (and a win that is difficult to dispute) on the republican's side... which is why trump and the gop wants him to be the nom.

and if Stacy Abrams goes as a vp it will probably be with Biden. She has already come to his defense several times, and I think she had a meeting with Obama at one point, who is pro Biden. But who knows, a lot of people are thinking it might be Kamala Harris that goes with Biden.

 

[PJ Diaz]

.. there WILL be people who don't vote for him in the main election either, or straight up vote for trump- whether that be because they find him too liberal, or they refuse to reward those who screwed Hillary and helped put trump in the white house to begin with, or because they just don't fall for the bs he shouts out like his mainly white millennial base does. On the flip side, if he doesn't win the nomination, there is the risk of his supporters not voting (again), in an attempt to prove some point that nobody else can see or understand. it sounds stupid, but people are stupid... and petty and opinionated...

So wait.. When some Bernie supporters didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 they "screwed Hillary and helped put trump in the white house", but many of those 2016 Hillary supporters now say they will never support Bernie in 2020, so how are the two factions really any different from one another?

For better or for worse, the one thing that Republicans seem to have which Democrats don't have is a sense of party unity. The smartest thing the GOP has done in a long time is to let Trump run unopposed in the primaries, meanwhile Democrat nominees scratch each other's eyes out.

 

[Dr.Amber Trichome]

So wait.. When some Bernie supporters didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 they "screwed Hillary and helped put trump in the white house", but many of those 2016 Hillary supporters now say they will never support Bernie in 2020, so how are the two factions really any different from one another?

For better or for worse, the one thing that Republicans seem to have which Democrats don't have is a sense of party unity. The smartest thing the GOP has done in a long time is to let Trump run unopposed in the primaries, meanwhile Democrat nominees scratch each other's eyes out.

When a President runs for a second term they almost never have a same party competitor. They run alone. The democrats are not scratching each others eyes out, they are very respectful towards each other except for Bernie, the phony . They are actually quite nice to each other in comparison to how Trump was towards his republican competition in the 2016 race. Do you not remember how aweful he was towards his competition ? The name calling , bullying and disrespecting and conspiracy theory’s he was throwing around. And now those same people kiss his ass. Lying Ted is now kiss ass Ted with a short memory.

 

[abandonconflict]

The problem with Bernie is that he probably won't be alive much longer. Also he's a turd and nobody likes him. Also he's never accomplished anything meaningful. Also his healthcare plan is unworkable and unfunded. Also his 97 trillion dollar economic agenda is pure fantasy. Also he has a whole bunch of other problems.

 

[UncleBuck]

I was trying to help validate @UncleBuck with his previous statement.

I’m here to post the polls that you’ll pretend don’t exist

 

[Fogdog]

Poll? Did somebody cite a poll? How about an average of polls as they do at Nate Silver's Five-Thirty Eight? As he says, the resident RIU Bernie-Bros are citing polls that are cherry-picked -- polls that agree with their pre-conceived bias. This is not to say that they are wrong, just that their judgement is unreliable due to cognitive bias.

Election Update: It’s Cherry-Picking Season

As of our most recent Election Update this weekend, I noted that polls since last week’s debate had been — this is a scientific term — “pretty weird.” Well, i…

fivethirtyeight.com

Iowa and N.H. trends have been mediocre for Sanders
How the top five candidates’ polling averages in Iowa and New Hampshire changed, before and after the last debate
�

CANDIDATE	JAN. 14*	CURRENT	CHANGE	JAN. 14	CURRENT	CHANGE
	IOWA	NEW HAMPSHIRE
Biden	20.1	21.4	+1.3	21.8	17.9	-3.9
Sanders	19.9	17.8	-2.1	20.1	19.5	-0.6
Warren	14.9	16.4	+1.5	16.0	13.8	-2.2
Buttigieg	17.4	16.6	-0.8	13.1	13.9	+0.8
Klobuchar	6.7	8.4	+1.7	4.7	7.1	+2.4

* Polling average as of the day before the debate.




based on recent Iowa polls — both before and after the debate — Iowa would appear to be Biden’s state to lose more than Sanders’s. Biden has been ahead or tied for the lead in 4 of the 5 Iowa polls since the new year, as compared with just two for Sanders. (Although one of the polls that had Sanders ahead was the highly-rated Selzer & Co. poll.) In fact, Sanders has basically slipped into a three-way tie for second place in Iowa with Warren and Buttigieg.

Ignore the above wall of text -- the race is too close to call. Neither Sanders or Biden are favored to win in the first round in the Iowa Caucus. This takes us to what is likely to happen on the night of the Iowa Caucus.

The first round of ballots will result in no winner. Only four people will make it to the second round with Klobuchar's up-for-grabs delegates most likely to decide the outcome. Guess who they will vote for -- Biden. If they aren't enough to give Biden the win, then round 3 will ensue with people talking and trying to convince uncommitted delegates to join them. Because nobody likes him, Sanders will be unable to attract new delegates. So, if Sanders doesn't win in the first round (more than likely this will be the outcome in that round), then, advantage Biden.

The strain on the fragile and uncompromising Sanders delegates -- who nobody likes -- will eventually take it's toll. We can expect that at some point, mentally unstable members of Bernie's cult will suffer a complete break down, rush out the doors and climb into nearby trees, throwing poop on pedestrians below.

This happened to tty during the 2016 Colorado caucus. As we know, the damage was permanent.

 

[hanimmal]

Poll? Did somebody cite a poll? How about an average of polls as they do at Nate Silver's Five-Thirty Eight? As he says, the resident RIU Bernie-Bros are citing polls that are cherry-picked -- polls that agree with their pre-conceived bias. This is not to say that they are wrong, just that their judgement is unreliable due to cognitive bias.

Election Update: It’s Cherry-Picking Season

As of our most recent Election Update this weekend, I noted that polls since last week’s debate had been — this is a scientific term — “pretty weird.” Well, i…

fivethirtyeight.com

Iowa and N.H. trends have been mediocre for Sanders
How the top five candidates’ polling averages in Iowa and New Hampshire changed, before and after the last debate
�

	IOWA	NEW HAMPSHIRE
CANDIDATE	JAN. 14*	CURRENT	CHANGE	JAN. 14	CURRENT	CHANGE
Biden	20.1	21.4	+1.3	21.8	17.9	-3.9
Sanders	19.9	17.8	-2.1	20.1	19.5	-0.6
Warren	14.9	16.4	+1.5	16.0	13.8	-2.2
Buttigieg	17.4	16.6	-0.8	13.1	13.9	+0.8
Klobuchar	6.7	8.4	+1.7	4.7	7.1	+2.4

* Polling average as of the day before the debate.





based on recent Iowa polls — both before and after the debate — Iowa would appear to be Biden’s state to lose more than Sanders’s. Biden has been ahead or tied for the lead in 4 of the 5 Iowa polls since the new year, as compared with just two for Sanders. (Although one of the polls that had Sanders ahead was the highly-rated Selzer & Co. poll.) In fact, Sanders has basically slipped into a three-way tie for second place in Iowa with Warren and Buttigieg.

Ignoring the wall of text -- the race is too close to call and that Sanders or Biden are not favored to win in the first round. This takes us to what is likely to happen on the night of the Iowa Caucus.

The first round of ballots will result in no winner. Only four people will make it to the second round with Klobuchar's up-for-grabs delegates most likely to decide the outcome. Guess who they will vote for -- Biden. If they aren't enough to give Biden the win, then round 3 will ensue with people talking and trying to convince uncommitted delegates to join them. Because nobody likes him, Sanders will be unable to attract new delegates. So, if Sanders doesn't win in the first round (more than likely this will be the outcome in that round), then, advantage Biden.

The strain on the fragile and uncompromising Sanders delegates -- who nobody likes -- will eventually take it's toll. We can expect that at some point, mentally unstable members of Bernie's cult will suffer a complete break down, rush out the doors and climb into nearby trees, throwing poop on pedestrians below.

This happened to tty during the 2016 Colorado caucus. As we know, the damage was permanent.

I saw a guy today on one of the Sunday morning shows talking about a 15% threshold. And how Warren is right at it, if she is under her voters may go to Bernie by a margin enough and push him over. If she gets over 15% the Klobachar voters (and others) should move to Biden mostly and he walks with it.

Iowa is a interesting opening Primary state. I am learning a lot this election cycle, Thanks Trump/Putin for making paying attention to elections matter!

 

[Fogdog]

I saw a guy today on one of the Sunday morning shows talking about a 15% threshold. And how Warren is right at it, if she is under her voters may go to Bernie by a margin enough and push him over. If she gets over 15% the Klobachar voters (and others) should move to Biden mostly and he walks with it.

Iowa is a interesting opening Primary state. I am learning a lot this election cycle, Thanks Trump!

It's completely insane that a red state has such importance in the Democratic primary.

As they say, nobody likes Sanders. I'm guessing Warren's delegation will not go strongly for Biden or Sanders. More likely a split that favors Sanders is what I'm guessing. Klobuchar and Buttigieg's delegation (if they are in play), OTOH are the ones that will make the difference for Biden.

 

[SFnone]

So wait.. When some Bernie supporters didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 they "screwed Hillary and helped put trump in the white house", but many of those 2016 Hillary supporters now say they will never support Bernie in 2020, so how are the two factions really any different from one another?

For better or for worse, the one thing that Republicans seem to have which Democrats don't have is a sense of party unity. The smartest thing the GOP has done in a long time is to let Trump run unopposed in the primaries, meanwhile Democrat nominees scratch each other's eyes out.

the difference is Bernie supporters were upset that their candidate didn't get it so gave it to the republicans. if people give it away now it could be out of revenge. it's like, "you gave us trump, so why would we give you your guy now?" I am not saying I am one of those people, I am just saying there will be those with that mentality. Also, there are many who find him too far to the left and will choose trump over him. that is just reality. plus like others said, he is full of shit and just not fit to be that guy, and only his die hard base refuse to see it. like I said, people are opinionated petty and stupid. And I am totally in agreement with you that the Republicans have more unity than the Democrats. And that is my point- people say they will vote whoever the nom is, but they won't. People either overly love bernie or overly hate him. And because of that, he really should have sat it out this time.

 

[abandonconflict]

Sanders will probably be in a grave before 2024, in all likelihood.

 

[abandonconflict]

He's going to be dead soon.

Bernie Sanders says he won’t release post-heart attack medical records
February 9, 2020
Sen. Bernie Sanders on Sunday balked at releasing medical records in the wake of a heart attack that briefly took him off the campaign trail last fall — insisting that he is “in good health.”

Bernie Sanders says he won’t release post-heart attack medical records

“We have released as much documentation I think as any other candidate,” said Sanders, 78.

nypost.com

 

[Padawanbater2]

Sanders jumps out to huge lead in national poll as Biden plummets


Let me know if you need help opening the link

 

[abandonconflict]

Sanders jumps out to huge lead in national poll as Biden plummets


Let me know if you need help opening the link

He will be dead soon and the delegates know it. Will you vote for the nominee no matter who it is?

 

[abandonconflict]

And furthermore, we need to know who Bernie is running with, since he will almost certainly not be alive even 3 more years. His running mate may very well become the president unless the delegates protect us from having to nominate a dying candidate.

 

[Jonboy34]

We need someone to give us free weed. We don’t need free schooling, free healthcare, or free food. Just free weed. They would have my vote. Feel the bern lol.

 

[Sir Napsalot]

Sanders will probably be in a grave before 2024, in all likelihood.

If he beats Trump, he can die the day after he takes the office

 

[hanimmal]

Sanders jumps out to huge lead in national poll as Biden plummets


Let me know if you need help opening the link

It is more about the 2 week hit job the Republican Senate pulled on trying to impeach Joe Biden and support from the black community moving to Bloomberg than it is about Sanders increasing his numbers.

If you really want to stop a billionaire from becoming the nominee, you should start supporting the person who was firmly in the middle class his entire career in politics.

 

[Fogdog]

It is more about the 2 week hit job the Republican Senate pulled on trying to impeach Joe Biden and support from the black community moving to Bloomberg than it is about Sanders increasing his numbers.

If you really want to stop a billionaire from becoming the nominee, you should start supporting the person who was firmly in the middle class his entire career in politics.


View attachment 4476749

Klobuchar > Bloomers > Biden >>>>>> Sanders