OK then. Biden 2020.
- Thread starter abandonconflict
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hanimmal
Well-Known Member
It is interesting that Biden still outperforms beating Trump over every other Democratic candidate:
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/806703427/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-sanders-leads-bloomberg-qualifies-for-debate
I can't wait to see how everything shakes out after Super Tuesday.
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/806703427/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-sanders-leads-bloomberg-qualifies-for-debate
I can't wait to see how everything shakes out after Super Tuesday.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Super Tuesday should narrow the field and draw lines.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
When they drop and endorse other candidates, those delegates will mostly go to another moderate candidate.
Padawanbater2
Well-Known Member
Bloomberg and Buttigieg have all but fizzled out too, and Sanders is sitting comfortable with a 7 point lead two weeks before super tuesday, where he's expected to clean house
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
When a moderate candidate drops and endorses another candidate, delegates are consolidated. When the field narrows to just Sanders vs one moderate candidate, Sanders will still have the same poll numbers, around 30-35% and very few delegates will be awarded to him aside from those pledged during the actual primaries.
So when the delegates nominate someone other than Sanders, will you still show up and vote against Trump?
So when the delegates nominate someone other than Sanders, will you still show up and vote against Trump?
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
"Let Bernie win or we'll give you Trump!"
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
So you can't read a graph either
Padawanbater2
Well-Known Member
Except that's not how elections work, and most of those moderates second choice will go to Sanders
He takes a significant portion of Biden's votes when he exits the race after ST, most of Warren's votes, and quite a bit of Buttigieg's votes when their second option endorses him
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
He also seems to think that votes = delegates.
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Yes it is. Delegates pledged to a candidate that drops go to the candidate they endorse. Sanders is going to get slaughtered on delegates. Many of them will simply refuse to pledge to him even in the primaries where he does well simply because he is not a democrat and because he is dying.
Face Reality, Padaraper.
hanimmal
Well-Known Member
It doesn't matter as long as he can typed rigged nonstop I'm guessing. It's a shame when people think that the delegates shouldn't get to vote. Especially when they don't sign up to be one themselves.
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
Berniebabies are incapable of facing reality. Their logic is totally flawed because they start with a false supposition that Bernie must win - only Bernie can win - and then work backward, twisting and turning and grasping at whatever straw that can lead them to their conclusion no matter what ridiculous shit it entails.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Here's what is going to happen. In a couple of days, after delegates from Nevada and South Carolina have pledged, one or two candidates will drop out. Likely among them will be Gabbard and Warren. They are the only candidates who might endorse Sanders and Warren might not. Biden will likely take a lion's share of the delegates in South Carolina. It will still look competitive until Super Tuesday. Sanders might even take a small lead in number of delegates pledged. But after Super Tuesday, when the field narrows down to two or 3 candidates, Bernie will not get any more endorsements from other candidates having dropped out, so no more delegates that way and likely no superdelegates at all. Which ever moderate candidate is still in the race will suddenly get the endorsements of the other moderates and the entire party establishment will rally behind that person.
First one to 1991 delegates is nominated.
First one to 1991 delegates is nominated.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
These are the pledged delegates so far. South Carolina has a total of 63 and Nevada a totasl of 48. After the primaries in those two states and any candidates dropping and endorsing Sanders, we'll see how many delegates he has going into Super Tuesday. I predict he will have fewer than 60 while moderate candidates will have a combined total of at least double that. Once the race narrows to just Sanders vs one moderate candidate, he'll be picking a running mate and continuing the race at a sharp disadvantage in the number of delegates pledged, possibly less than half of what the other candidate has.
hanimmal
Well-Known Member
This is really what it comes down to. Those Battleground states that Trump got Russian interference the most in 2016 (by depressing Democratic voters) Biden is walking over Trump, while everyone else is statistically tied with Trump.
Hillary Clinton beat Trump by almost 3 million votes in 2016, but Trump won by 80,000 votes in these key states to win the Presidency.
There is a reason Trump wants anyone but Biden to the degree that he got impeached trying to manufacture dirt by forcing a vulnerable foreign ally to announce Biden's kid got a job there.
Hillary Clinton beat Trump by almost 3 million votes in 2016, but Trump won by 80,000 votes in these key states to win the Presidency.
There is a reason Trump wants anyone but Biden to the degree that he got impeached trying to manufacture dirt by forcing a vulnerable foreign ally to announce Biden's kid got a job there.
