Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.

[doublejj]

The scientific community, even within the People's Republic of China is not complicit in the cover-up by the Chinese communist party at the onset of this pandemic. It's not that things are worse or better than "they're saying", it's that things are more complex. The most common form of disinformation is any conclusion at all. There simply hasn't been enough data to draw enough solid epidemiological conclusions to answer even the most common questions. Those questions for example are: What is the reproductive rate (R0)? What is the fatality rate? What is the asymptomatic proportion? What proportion will become seriously ill and experience ARDS? This is a big part of the problem which leads to disinformation and panic.

So a scientific study indicated that the number of people who aren't confirmed but may be infected (note the tentative language) may be as high as almost half. So half of those infected get confirmed. That means you can cut the fatality rate in half, right there. There's another study showing how the fatality rate is calculated. Basically they said, count how many people got sick on a given day and then count how many died 14 days later since the incubation period is 14 days on average. The problem with that is that now that more data are emerging, it's been shown consistently that the average incubation period is only 8 days. This brings the fatality rate down again. Then a new study went on even further and stated that the fatality rate can not possibly be higher than the percentage of cases with an outcome in which the outcome was death, which right now means you can categorically reject any fatality rate above 7%.

However, that number is not mitigated by the asymptomatic proportion, so drop it by half, easy. Then, figure in doctor precation, not releasing patients until recovery has been 100% assured, and you realize that the number of recovered is probably also significantly higher and you actually end up accepting the WHO fatality rate estimate of around 2%. The fact that you can reach this number by doing the math in different ways, makes a very strong case. So no, it's exactly as bad as they're saying it is. Don't get me wrong, that's still bad. No need to make it any worse with disinfo.

2% of the US population is = 6,000,000 dead.......

 

[abandonconflict]

if this coronavirus reaches America unchecked, at it's current fatality rate, 30 million Americans will die....

2% of the US population is = 6,000,000 dead.......

It would be better if you would just chill the fuck out.

 

[Fogdog]

The scientific community, even within the People's Republic of China is not complicit in the cover-up by the Chinese communist party at the onset of this pandemic. It's not that things are worse or better than "they're saying", it's that things are more complex. The most common form of disinformation is any conclusion at all. There simply hasn't been enough data to draw enough solid epidemiological conclusions to answer even the most common questions. Those questions for example are: What is the reproductive rate (R0)? What is the fatality rate? What is the asymptomatic proportion? What proportion will become seriously ill and experience ARDS? This is a big part of the problem which leads to disinformation and panic.

So a scientific study indicated that the number of people who aren't confirmed but may be infected (note the tentative language) may be as high as almost half. So half of those infected get confirmed. That means you can cut the fatality rate in half, right there. There's another study showing how the fatality rate is calculated. Basically they said, count how many people got sick on a given day and then count how many died 14 days later since the incubation period is 14 days on average. The problem with that is that now that more data are emerging, it's been shown consistently that the average incubation period is only 8 days. This brings the fatality rate down again. Then a new study went on even further and stated that the fatality rate can not possibly be higher than the percentage of cases with an outcome in which the outcome was death, which right now means you can categorically reject any fatality rate above 7%.

However, that number is not mitigated by the asymptomatic proportion, so drop it by half, easy. Then, figure in doctor precation, not releasing patients until recovery has been 100% assured, and you realize that the number of recovered is probably also significantly higher and you actually end up accepting the WHO fatality rate estimate of around 2%. The fact that you can reach this number by doing the math in different ways, makes a very strong case. So no, it's exactly as bad as they're saying it is. Don't get me wrong, that's still bad. No need to make it any worse with disinfo.

First, that figure of 50% infected isn't surprising to me at all. Merkel told the people of Germany she expected that 60%-70% will be infected.

Second, 2% seems right thus far. I'm guessing that it could be worse in the US because of all our other morbidity factors like obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, and so forth.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

The scientific community, even within the People's Republic of China is not complicit in the cover-up by the Chinese communist party at the onset of this pandemic. It's not that things are worse or better than "they're saying", it's that things are more complex. The most common form of disinformation is any conclusion at all. There simply hasn't been enough data to draw enough solid epidemiological conclusions to answer even the most common questions. Those questions for example are: What is the reproductive rate (R0)? What is the fatality rate? What is the asymptomatic proportion? What proportion will become seriously ill and experience ARDS? This is a big part of the problem which leads to disinformation and panic.

So a scientific study indicated that the number of people who aren't confirmed but may be infected (note the tentative language) may be as high as almost half. So half of those infected get confirmed. That means you can cut the fatality rate in half, right there. There's another study showing how the fatality rate is calculated. Basically they said, count how many people got sick on a given day and then count how many died 14 days later since the incubation period is 14 days on average. The problem with that is that now that more data are emerging, it's been shown consistently that the average incubation period is only 8 days. This brings the fatality rate down again. Then a new study went on even further and stated that the fatality rate can not possibly be higher than the percentage of cases with an outcome in which the outcome was death, which right now means you can categorically reject any fatality rate above 7%.

However, that number is not mitigated by the asymptomatic proportion, so drop it by half, easy. Then, figure in doctor precation, not releasing patients until recovery has been 100% assured, and you realize that the number of recovered is probably also significantly higher and you actually end up accepting the WHO fatality rate estimate of around 2%. The fact that you can reach this number by doing the math in different ways, makes a very strong case. So no, it's exactly as bad as they're saying it is. Don't get me wrong, that's still bad. No need to make it any worse with disinfo.

Well I'm arguing it's a largely meaningless statistic, mortality rates will vary widely depending on the response, testing, containment and finally mitigation measures they might even range up to 5% in some places and less than 1% in others depending on the level of medical support and initial response. 2% means nothing in a situation where the hospitals are overwhelmed and the curve spikes.

I managed to express the idea clearly in a short simple paragraph too.

 

[abandonconflict]

First, that figure of 50% infected isn't surprising to me at all.

Where did you get that? I never cited any study saying anything like that or anything remotely resembling that.

I said that about half of people who get infected will become confirmed cases. I did not say half of people will get infected. Merkel is smart to plan for the worst.

 

[abandonconflict]

Well I'm arguing it's a largely meaningless statistic, mortality rates will vary widely depending on the response, testing, containment and finally mitigation measures they might even range up to 5% in some places and less than 1% in others depending on the level of medical support and initial response. 2% means nothing in a situation where the hospitals are overwhelmed and the curve spikes.

I managed to express the idea clearly in a short simple paragraph too.

No dude. You have made 80% of the posts in this thread and most of it is pretty much spam that is uninteresting and hardly pertinent. It's a distraction and it's tedious and it buries the arguments. I don't care for even a second if you don't have the attention span to read a complex scientific argument but maybe you shouldn't be the one doing the majority of the posting if you can't. The jist of the argument is shut the fuck up. But in a nice way.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

No dude. You have made 80% of the posts in this thread and most of it is pretty much spam that is uninteresting and hardly pertinent. It's a distraction and it's tedious and it buries the arguments. I don't care for even a second if you don't have the attention span to read a complex scientific argument but maybe you shouldn't be the one doing the majority of the posting if you can't. The jist of the argument is shut the fuck up. But in a nice way.

Ok fine, we're all gonna be spending some "quality" time together in quarantine, so we should try to get along I figure. Good luck in the Philippines, we will all need it.

 

[abandonconflict]

Sorry @Fogdog I see how you got that from this most recent comment I made. I'll post this again since it already got buried. This is what I cited.

There are some good studies out on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases. This is very useful info and in particular, I found the Nishiura et al study to be pretty solid. Basically, they tested every single Japanese evacuee from Wuhan and came up with a number of confirmed virus positive individuals and then figured out who had symptoms. So these are the people who would likely not have been tested had they not been actual evacuees. Furthermore, some of the symptomatic individuals only experienced mild symptoms and would likely also have been underdiagnosed.

Using a binomial distribution, the asymptomatic ratio is thus estimated at 30.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7%, 53.8%) among evacuees. As of 6 March 2020, a total of thirty days have elapsed since their departure from Wuhan, and the length of observation is sufficiently longer than the COVID-19 incubation period (Li et al., 2020; Linton et al., 2020). Thus, there is very little probability that the virus-positive asymptomatic individuals will develop symptoms.

Despite a small sample size, our estimation indicates that perhaps less than a half of COVID-19-infected individuals are underdiagnosed.

Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19)

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[Jimdamick]

Don't worry, everyone will probably catch this cold.

Except this "cold" has a good chance of killing you.
You made this post on1/26/2020, and now I get a laugh out of it
Some fucking cold, eh?

 

[Jimdamick]

It would be better if you would just chill the fuck out.

Hey, Twit
My entire town just went into a mandatory lockdown & NYC is closing all their restaurants & bars and you sound like it's no big fucking deal.
Are you really that fucking stupid?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Except this "cold" has a good chance of killing you.
You made this post on1/26/2020, and now I get a laugh out of it
Some fucking cold, eh?

Be fair he saw it coming before anybody, his thread, let it be.

 

[abandonconflict]

Hey, Twit
My entire town just went into a mandatory lockdown & NYC is closing all their restaurants & bars and you sound like it's no big fucking deal.
Are you really that fucking stupid?

Dude, I have been the one telling people to stop joking around for almost two months and take this seriously. I live in one of the poorest countries in Asia with terrible public healthcare systems and laughable travel restrictions on Chinese citizens. I made serious duckets selling masks two damn months ago. I'm not saying it's no big fucking deal. I'm saying don't bring down the entire society with hysteria just because you don't understand it.

 

[Lucky Luke]

Hey, Twit
My entire town just went into a mandatory lockdown & NYC is closing all their restaurants & bars and you sound like it's no big fucking deal.
Are you really that fucking stupid?

It is what it is, no need to panic on a forum. Anyone who has been following this thread and from there on to Italy etc can see whats coming.
Yes, i think America will have a higher % of fatalities simply due to its health system. But panicking and insulting someone who has been showing raw data since 27/Jan is pointless.

We all know that people will die, we all know that due to a swamped health system those who may have a heart attack at home simply wont get treated (this is happening in Italy). So its not just the deaths that the virus causes its the death from other things that wont go on the tally.

JJ did some smart shit. Cashed in his stock and moved to the farm. He did that because of this thread id wager, or at least due to the heads up this thread gave him.

Keep Calm an Carry on.

 

[abandonconflict]

Don't treat it like a joke, don't go into mass hysteria either.

JUST WASH YOUR FUCKING HANDS!

Now excuse me, I'm going to volunteer at an urgent care center.

 

[abandonconflict]

It is what it is, no need to panic on a forum. Anyone who has been following this thread and from there on to Italy etc can see whats coming.
Yes, i think America will have a higher % of fatalities simply due to its health system. But panicking and insulting someone who has been showing raw data since 27/Jan is pointless.

We all know that people will die, we all know that due to a swamped health system those who may have a heart attack at home simply wont get treated (this is happening in Italy). So its not just the deaths that the virus causes its the death from other things that wont go on the tally.

JJ did some smart shit. Cashed in his stock and moved to the farm. He did that because of this thread id wager, or at least due to the heads up this thread gave him.

Keep Calm an Carry on.

Insults are fine. I insult people all the time.

 

[Lucky Luke]

In Australia we have been having problems with people ignoring the self isolation "Request", so the state governments gave them sharp teeth.

For those people who breach the self isolation policy in place the following fines apply.

WA $50,000 and 12 months jail
SA $25,000
QLD $13,345.00
NSW $11,000 and 6 months jail
TAS $8,400
VIC $6,600

 

[doublejj]

Fauci: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing'
Fauci reiterated that Americans should avoid crowded places to prevent the spread of the virus

Fauci: ‘If it looks like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing’

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said Sunday that it was better to err on the side of caution in coronavirus mitigation, even if the steps take…

thehill.com

 

[abandonconflict]

Fauci: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing'
Fauci reiterated that Americans should avoid crowded places to prevent the spread of the virus

Fauci: ‘If it looks like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing’

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said Sunday that it was better to err on the side of caution in coronavirus mitigation, even if the steps take…

thehill.com

What does he say about going around claiming millions are about to die?

I'll answer that for you. He says that we can take action to reduce the toll, rejecting the notion that we should do anything like accepting a high death toll.

 

[doublejj]

What does he say about going around claiming millions are about to die?

I'll answer that for you. He says that we can take action to reduce the toll, rejecting the notion that we should do anything like accepting a high death toll.

bro "Just wash your hands" ain't gonna cut it....

 

[abandonconflict]

bro "Just wash your hands" ain't gonna cut it....

Out of all the data I have shared, that's all you are looking at?

The data are being buried before they can be comprehended. Look, I commend you for being ready for the end of the world, but I like the world. I don't want it to end. It's worth you know, fixing. I get that I'm a fucking prick most of the time, but really, it's because I actually believe a difference can be made. I just put my name and phone number on a list to volunteer on my island if I'm needed. I'm probably going to be helping maintain order and sanitizing a local hospital. So yes, I am doing a whole lot more than just washing my hands.

Three more pages of this thread today and I'm the only one making any sort of attempt at all to explicate data. That's profoundly frustrating.