Fogdog
Well-Known Member
No link to a study in your post. I'm not saying you are wrong, just saying the data are kind of crappy right now. I have no way to read up on that study to decide on my own.
Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.
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captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
I don't think it's been reviewed yet, supposedly they saw something similar on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
I can't make sense of the data. This update from 12th of March but the European Center for Disease Control gave this apparently conflicting statement:
Infection in asymptomatic individuals: The virus has been detected in asymptomatic persons. On a rapidly evolving cruise ship outbreak, where most of the passengers and staff were tested irrespective of symptoms, 51% of the laboratory confirmed cases were asymptomatic at the time of confirmation [33]. In Italy, 44% of the laboratory-confirmed cases have been asymptomatic [34]. In Japan, 0.06% of reported cases have been asymptomatic [35]. These proportions based on nationally notified cases likely reflect laboratory testing algorithms rather than true estimates of asymptomatic infections.
Based on Chinese data, the international WHO mission report indicates that up to 75% of initially asymptomatic cases will progress to clinical disease, making the true asymptomatic infection rather rare (estimated at 1-3%) [16].
Both viral RNA and infectious virus particles were detected in throat swabs from two German citizens evacuated from Hubei province on 1 February 2020, who remained well and afebrile seven days after admission to a hospital in Frankfurt [36]. Both a mother and a child in a family cluster remained asymptomatic (including normal chest CT images during the observation period) with qRT-PCR positive nasopharyngeal swab samples [37]. Similar viral load in asymptomatic versus symptomatic cases was reported in a study including 18 patients [38]. Persistent positivity of viral RNA in throat and anal swabs were reported in a asymptomatic female patient after 17 days of clinical observation and treatment [39].
Potential transmission from an asymptomatic person has been reported in a familial cluster of five COVID-19 patients hospitalised with fever and respiratory symptoms that had contact before their onset of symptoms with an asymptomatic family member, a young 20-year-old woman, upon her return from Wuhan [40]. She remained asymptomatic for the whole duration of laboratory and clinical monitoring (19 days).
The first paragraph confirms what you just said. Other experience in China indicates most of those initially diagnosed as infected but asymptomatic eventually show symptoms, hence the 1%-3% estimate.
I think it's a fine point and maybe I don't understand the difference in importance. Whether or not a person who is infected will show symptoms is less important than the finding that:
a) People in a closed community, i.e. a cruise ship, a nursing home, or a "remote Italian village"(?), where a large enough sample or sick and asymptomatic people have been tested, show more than 40% were infected.
b) People who are asymptomatic can infect others.
(?) = word of mouth, citation not yet available
Maybe you have drawn different conclusions?
To me, what health officials are saying about what to do still holds. Don't go out. What the general public can do is slow the spread of this disease so that the health care system can continue to operate. Flatten the curve. The area under the curve is probably baked in. The spread of the curve is what we can affect by our actions.
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captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
What I took away from this is that if you follow the South Korean model and test everyone and quarantine everyone including all the asymptomatic the infection rate plummets. Chinas harsh lock down also seems to back that up.
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
only 10%? thats surprisingly low. I would've expected that if one doesnt display symptoms - but is already a vector - that its more likely that these persons infect soneone than those which are already visibly sick...
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
Exactly, if you're sick most people try to do things not to infect others. If you're sick and don't know you don't.
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
I also wonder where the distinction between sympomatic-asymptomatic begins? because a disease develops fluidly...
maybe thats the reason the Italian study on the 3000 people looks more like an estimate (50-75%)...?
maybe thats the reason the Italian study on the 3000 people looks more like an estimate (50-75%)...?
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Here's something instructive on self isolation and flattening the curve, what happens when you do the right thing, and what happens when you don't.
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A Tale of Two Cities: The Catastrophic 1918 Flu Pandemic Can Guide City Policymakers Today - CityHealth — Helping everyone live healthy, full lives
March 24, 2020 Update: CityHealth President Shelley Hearne wrote this blog post back in 2018, about how lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic could help us prepare for future outbreaks. Now that the coronavirus has spread around the globe, this message is more important than ever. Cities have...
www.cityhealth.org
A Tale of Two Cities: The Catastrophic 1918 Flu Pandemic Can Guide City Policymakers Today
By Shelley Hearne, DrPH, President of CityHealth
One hundred years ago, in 1918, a novel virus swept the globe, infecting at least 500 million people – one third of the world’s population –and killing an estimated 50 million people worldwide. Sometimes referred to as the “Spanish Flu,” it was one of the deadliest disease outbreaks in recorded history. About 675,000 people in the United States died in the pandemic, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Scientists know that it is simply a matter of time before another new viral threat emerges. As such, in addition to basic medical preparedness, vaccine development, and global surveillance, we must remember to learn from history to ensure not to repeat past missteps. Some of those century old lessons can save lives today.
more...
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
The data are kind of crappy right now.
Maybe it's an argument about what "asymptomatic" means. I don't know. It's interesting so, sure let's talk about it but I don't understand the importance in the difference between "truly asymptotic" or "asymptotic", as in --"you don't have symptoms now but will". Not sure how important it is to split those hairs.
I'm just buying into the idea that "we can't stop the spread, only slow it down". The actionable conclusions being: stay home if you can. Also, "not feeling sick doesn't mean you can't spread it". The actionable conclusion being -- stay home if you can. Oh, and "if you are sick, stay home". Period.
There seems to be a repeating theme here.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
That could be a problem, many of the corona symptoms are the same as colds and flu. Many may just have the sniffles like a mild cold and be in the asymptomatic category because they don't have all the bad symptoms.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
I heard one health official say quite clearly that "if you have the sniffles or runny nose, you don't have coronavirus"
It's described as a dry cough.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
I've read that it depends on where the infection starts. The doctor in China that blew the whistle and died thought he got it in his eyes, his eyes got swollen and red like allergies. If it enters the nose does it make it runny?
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
what exactly in human physiology is the cause that theres such a grave difference between the harshness of the sickness between old & young? which part of the immune system doesnt run anymore in the old? or is it because their lungs generally wont make it anymore anyway...?
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
do you know if he contracted an encephaliitis afterwards and subsequently died due to that?
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
If I remember right it was cardiac from the drugs they used to try and save him but not sure, I've read a mountain of articles.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
Some strange stuff coming out, like blood type and sex, you would think it wouldn't matter.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
I'm no heath professional. I just know what I read and hear. In a special report on Oregon Public Broadcasting, I distinctly heard one of the health officials interviewed saying that if you have a stuffy nose you don't have coronavirus. Does that mean 100%? Probably not.
As I'm sure you've heard, they also have repeated many times "don't touch your face" because it can enter the body through wet membranes like those in the eyes, nose and mouth. The disease itself causes respiratory problems and from what people who know more than I do say, it rarely if ever causes the kind of problems we associate with a head cold. Flu, yes.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
There will be a lot of confusion, they are doing old fashioned empirical science on the fly and sharing data as they go, proper studies are being done too and we are seeing some of their raw data, before proper analysis, but those definitive answers will have to wait. I saw the article on blood types too, yer stuck with what ya got!
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
But is there a difference between a stuffy nose and a runny nose and could that just be the bodies reaction to the virus like the doctors eyes?
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
The initial symptoms may vary some depending on were the virus enters the body, if you breath it in you may start with a cough, the nose may run if it enters there or the eyes become red and runny.