Another Republican President, Another Recession.

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
The Republicans seem to love dumping a recession on the American economy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/02/another-gop-president-another-recession/Screen Shot 2020-04-02 at 5.10.24 PM.png
President Trump did not create the coronavirus, but his failure to act swiftly and implement extensive testing and contact tracing left us with one option: extreme social distancing. And naturally, social distancing meant the economy ground to a halt. In that sense, the recession is a product of Trump’s mismanagement and willful ignorance. And that recession will be frightfully severe.

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

The Post reports: “More than 6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week — a record — as political and public health leaders put the economy in a deep freeze, keeping people at home and trying to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus.” The magnitude of the job losses so far — and there will be more to come — is staggering. (“The past two weeks have erased nearly all the jobs created in the past five years, a sign of how rapid, deep and painful the economic shutdown has been on many American families who are struggling to pay rent and health insurance costs in the midst of a pandemic.”) The number of claims so far, more than 10 million, is likely understated “since a lot of newly unemployed Americans haven’t been able to fill out a claim yet.”

As businesses find they can no longer hold out, declare bankruptcy or shut their doors, more people will lose their jobs. Employees asked to take pay cuts one month will find that their employer in a month or two can no longer keep them on payroll at all.

In looking at the political implications of this horror show, one need only recall the 2008 Great Recession. The causes of that financial collapse — e.g., unregulated financial instruments, negligence from ratings companies, lender deception, the Federal Reserve’s failure to act — were complicated. Nevertheless, the politicians who resisted warnings (from then-Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren, among other people) and favored a Wild West deregulated financial industry have unique culpability. And the party in charge at the time — the Republicans — bore the brunt of the voters wrath at the polls. Do we imagine this domestic debacle will play out differently?

Trump and his Republicans are vulnerable on three counts: failure to act to head off the pandemic, failure to respond adequately to the crisis and corruption in the response (in an administration already infamous for corruption and self-dealing).

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), among Trump’s most fervent enablers, picked a poor time to declare that the federal government should stop helping. The Post’s Robert Costa reports that McConnell delivered a “sweeping dismissal” of the call from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for a fourth stimulus package:
“She needs to stand down on the notion that we’re going to go along with taking advantage of the crisis to do things that are unrelated to the crisis,” McConnell said in an interview with The Washington Post, calling the speaker’s recent comments about a fourth round of virus-related legislation “premature.”
In her initial written response, Pelosi said, “The victims of the coronavirus pandemic cannot wait. It is moving faster than the leader may have suspected, and even he has said that some things should wait for the next bill.”

At her weekly news conference, she was even more emphatic, both on continuing to fund the recovery and on clamping down on corruption. She urged more money for equipment for health-care responders and other “front-line workers,” funds for states to manage unemployment insurance claims and a major effort on infrastructure (including water, broadband and community health-care centers). Reacting to the unemployment claims, she asked, “Does that just not take your breath away?” As for McConnell, she said bluntly, “We’ll have our bill.”

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Perhaps most important, Pelosi will set up a House select committee to oversee the entire coronavirus effort, much like then-Sen. Harry Truman did for World War II funding, to crack down on waste, fraud and abuse.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Want to guess what that chart above would look like if we updated it today?

Haha current version of DNC. Do you not notice how much they try to keep the change out? Look at how DNC treats progressives and what they have done to Bernie. The fact is that there has been obama for 8 years and clinton for 8 years and many other dems since 70's who could had fixed stuff, but no one did. Also biden doesent seem very interested in fixing them, because they are the kind of stuff that would guarantee him victory, but he only is giving out the very least, "vote for me, im not trump". People want a single payer and free education etc and biden knows this, but still he does not say that he would do those things. He doesent want to give out too much, just enough to maybe win. Giving out more than the very least would be worse than letting trump win for them, because they would need to promise things that would go against their donors and friends and that they will not do.
Right, shift to the progressive troll, nicely done.

Do you actually understand how laws get passed in our nation? There are three branches, the Democrats have only held power in all three branches at the same time for 2 years in Obama, Clinton, and Carter's presidencies. The first two years, and they got a hell of a lot done for the people. Even though they also all had to deal with Republican's recessions. After that the Republicans won back a branch after 2 years of Republicans trolling them and effectively shut the ability of the Democrats to push through their legislation without Republican poison pills.

And it has been a long road to get to today's Democratic party.
 

CannaOnerStar

Well-Known Member
Its always so funny how republicans wreck the economy by creating these economical bubbles that burst and democrats then claim they cant afford to do anything to progress things properly because the economy needs to be revived.. Nice scam i say

They have done these recession scams or what ever for a long time already and almost collapsed world economy a couple of times.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Its always so funny how republicans wreck the economy by creating these economical bubbles that burst and democrats then claim they cant afford to do anything to progress things properly because the economy needs to be revived.. Nice scam i say

They have done these recession scams or what ever for a long time already and almost collapsed world economy a couple of times.
If you actually took two seconds to reread what you wrote you would see it doesn't make any sense at all.

The Democrats were busy trying to fix the economy, figuring out what to spend on is not magic or some 'gut' logic. And also plugging holes in the laws that lead to the financial market crash, and bailing out the auto makers.

The Republicans during the entire time Obama was fixing their mess trolled them with their 'Tea Party' astroturf movement funded by the mega wealthy Koch Bros. So that the next election two years later the Republicans won the House and were able to shut everything down until McConnell really got to end Obama's ability to govern at all.

The Democrats have not been in power long enough to do all the things that need to get done, it is not that they have complaining about not having the money to do it, it is that money never got appropriated to do them.
 

CannaOnerStar

Well-Known Member
If you actually took two seconds to reread what you wrote you would see it doesn't make any sense at all.

The Democrats were busy trying to fix the economy, figuring out what to spend on is not magic or some 'gut' logic. And also plugging holes in the laws that lead to the financial market crash, and bailing out the auto makers.
They could do tons, but they only use this an excuse like i said. If DNC would only talk about these issues properly that would be a lot.

Yea they modified their game with changing the laws a bit, so that they could do it again and again and again in a way that allows them to continue doing it.

Obama was mostly serving the walls street and look at what he did at standing rock. Thats not much better than what trump is doing with his task forces right now. Sure thing shave gotten out of control more now with trump, so there has been more force. But when the protests were equivalent to stadning rock in size, they used equal amount of oppression etc even tho obama was sweet talking all the time.

Do you know that obama could had made it much much harder for the standing rock thing to go through, instead he jsut talsked shit and waited it out until, while oppressing protestors till trump got to control.

Luckily it seems that through court cases people have started to maybe win in the case, but much damage has already been done and its been 4 years when obama could had stopped it immediately if he wanted to. But it would had gone against his donors and friends, so he didnt do anything about it, just left the mess for trum to handle, because then obama would not lose his face and his donors would be happy.


The Republicans during the entire time Obama was fixing their mess trolled them with their 'Tea Party' astroturf movement funded by the mega wealthy Koch Bros. So that the next election two years later the Republicans won the House and were able to shut everything down until McConnell really got to end Obama's ability to govern at all.

The Democrats have not been in power long enough to do all the things that need to get done, it is not that they have complaining about not having the money to do it, it is that money never got appropriated to do them.
They could do tons of things all the time, instead they feed lies through media and brainwash people. And no its not just DNC, its also RNC.

Im not sure if i should put the text in my signature that says; "go vote for biden and demand stuff from him, because he wont give you them, just because he is not trump, but even if you dont demand anything from him, he is better than trump". So that retards would not think im some ruski troll trying to get people to vote for trump.

Its funny you dont see that the way you are being manipulated is that you are driven against your own side. Im just lucky im not an american brainwashed fool who believes either what DNC or RNC says. Ever heard of divide and conquer? These people feeding you the story of good DNC and bad RNC or good RNC and bad DNC are the world best manipulators and bullshitters. Its funny to see how fucked people are looking at them from the outsiders perspective, when the people who are fucked dont see anything weird but only what they perceive as normal..
 

rkymtnman

Well-Known Member
Dems are called the tax and spend party by the GOP

the "fiscally responsible GOP"are tax cuts and spend even more. and notice how no repub has mentioned that the debt went up 7 trillion in 3.5 yrs vs 9.9 in 8 yrs by Obama???
 

Wattzzup

Well-Known Member
The Republicans seem to love dumping a recession on the American economy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/02/another-gop-president-another-recession/View attachment 4521334
President Trump did not create the coronavirus, but his failure to act swiftly and implement extensive testing and contact tracing left us with one option: extreme social distancing. And naturally, social distancing meant the economy ground to a halt. In that sense, the recession is a product of Trump’s mismanagement and willful ignorance. And that recession will be frightfully severe.

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

The Post reports: “More than 6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week — a record — as political and public health leaders put the economy in a deep freeze, keeping people at home and trying to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus.” The magnitude of the job losses so far — and there will be more to come — is staggering. (“The past two weeks have erased nearly all the jobs created in the past five years, a sign of how rapid, deep and painful the economic shutdown has been on many American families who are struggling to pay rent and health insurance costs in the midst of a pandemic.”) The number of claims so far, more than 10 million, is likely understated “since a lot of newly unemployed Americans haven’t been able to fill out a claim yet.”

As businesses find they can no longer hold out, declare bankruptcy or shut their doors, more people will lose their jobs. Employees asked to take pay cuts one month will find that their employer in a month or two can no longer keep them on payroll at all.

In looking at the political implications of this horror show, one need only recall the 2008 Great Recession. The causes of that financial collapse — e.g., unregulated financial instruments, negligence from ratings companies, lender deception, the Federal Reserve’s failure to act — were complicated. Nevertheless, the politicians who resisted warnings (from then-Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren, among other people) and favored a Wild West deregulated financial industry have unique culpability. And the party in charge at the time — the Republicans — bore the brunt of the voters wrath at the polls. Do we imagine this domestic debacle will play out differently?

Trump and his Republicans are vulnerable on three counts: failure to act to head off the pandemic, failure to respond adequately to the crisis and corruption in the response (in an administration already infamous for corruption and self-dealing).

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), among Trump’s most fervent enablers, picked a poor time to declare that the federal government should stop helping. The Post’s Robert Costa reports that McConnell delivered a “sweeping dismissal” of the call from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for a fourth stimulus package:

In her initial written response, Pelosi said, “The victims of the coronavirus pandemic cannot wait. It is moving faster than the leader may have suspected, and even he has said that some things should wait for the next bill.”

At her weekly news conference, she was even more emphatic, both on continuing to fund the recovery and on clamping down on corruption. She urged more money for equipment for health-care responders and other “front-line workers,” funds for states to manage unemployment insurance claims and a major effort on infrastructure (including water, broadband and community health-care centers). Reacting to the unemployment claims, she asked, “Does that just not take your breath away?” As for McConnell, she said bluntly, “We’ll have our bill.”

The Opinions section is looking for stories of how the coronavirus has affected people of all walks of life. Write to us.

Perhaps most important, Pelosi will set up a House select committee to oversee the entire coronavirus effort, much like then-Sen. Harry Truman did for World War II funding, to crack down on waste, fraud and abuse.
Have you ever went back further? 6 of 7 Presidents prior to the Great Depression were republican.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Yeah I saw where that Barack guy n Hilary were "heavily invested" in that state...so.......good clue as to why that coal operation is closing
Even Pre-Pandemic Obama's economy was stronger than Trump's in almost every category.

The Republicans are shit for our economy, great for the wealthy people, but shit for the economy, and anyone who doesn't have enough wealth to take advantage of their recessions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/07/obamas-last-three-years-of-job-growth-all-beat-trumps-best-year/#44197b656ba6
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MY OWN DANK

Well-Known Member
Even Pre-Pandemic Obama's economy was stronger than Trump's in almost every category.

The Republicans are shit for our economy, great for the wealthy people, but shit for the economy, and anyone who doesn't have enough wealth to take advantage of their recessions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/07/obamas-last-three-years-of-job-growth-all-beat-trumps-best-year/#44197b656ba6
View attachment 4670482
With the payroll tax cut that Trumps administration put into effect shortly after he took office I got abt a 350$ raise per chk...so from my personal perspective whatever Trumps doing n hs done benefitted me well...plus the fact that when Barack was in there worked pretty much slowed to a bare minimum on the rivers that move coal...I still continued to work but alott guys didn't...I saw all that open up quickly after Trump got into office n its stayed that way currently...we have so many boats running we have trouble crewing them with quality crews...alot of our experience has to be spread thinly to ensure things run well bc we have more work n boats than we have experienced employees for...its that way industry wide...but that's just my personal perspective n my world
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
With the payroll tax cut that Trumps administration put into effect shortly after he took office I got abt a 350$ raise per chk...so from my personal perspective whatever Trumps doing n hs done benefitted me well
So your house isn't worth much I am guessing if that cut wasn't offset by those write-offs he removed for the non wealthy.

plus the fact that when Barack was in there worked pretty much slowed to a bare minimum on the rivers that move coal...I still continued to work but alott guys didn't...
So even though you have been shown that the Coal industry is diminishing even faster now under Trump, you just don't believe it because you don't see it?
I saw all that open up quickly after Trump got into office n its stayed that way currently...we have so many boats running we have trouble crewing them with quality crews...alot of our experience has to be spread thinly to ensure things run well bc we have more work n boats than we have experienced employees for...its that way industry wide...but that's just my personal perspective n my world
That sounds like it has the potential to be dangerous if all those executive actions Trump did to ruin our EPA and HEPA stuff to allow industries like yours to use unqualified employees if shit hits the fan.

Interesting article on your industry.

https://www.herald-dispatch.com/opinion/jim-ross-boats-pushing-coal-fewer-as-market-declines/article_698a83f0-3991-5796-970c-7c51ec9896cc.html
Screen Shot 2020-08-31 at 1.24.41 PM.png

I guess my question would be have you been in this career since at least 2005 to have a really accurate memory of how the industry has changed over the years?
 

MY OWN DANK

Well-Known Member
Exactly what you said above...I dont see it...I actually am on the river living 28days on 28off...I see the work I do the work I deliver coal on a regular basis to power plants they burn it as fast as it can be brought on a never ending cycle...n the "unqualified" employees you speak of are some entry level deckhands who do clean up and tighten the ratchets n winches or the wires laid by the mates to hold the barges together...all ppl in leadership positions are experienced...what I said was that there's so much work those ppl who are in leadership positions are spread thin...
This was the sum up of ur article n what it was saying as was I...that the conversion from coal to natural gas that Obama set in motion was not doable for some or too expensive so they folded or intend to fold...there's still many that are thrivingScreenshot_20200831-133121_Chrome.jpg
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Screen Shot 2020-08-31 at 9.27.55 PM.png
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/08/31/payroll-tax-trump-federal-employee/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_fed-taxes-410p:homepage/story-ans
The U.S. government will implement an across-the-board payroll tax deferral for about 1.3 million federal employees starting in mid-September, potentially forcing these workers to take a temporary financial boost now that they will have to repay next year.

The policy, confirmed Monday by a senior administration official, comes in response to a widely panned policy directive issued by President Trump earlier in August. Unions have sharply criticized the government’s decision, fearing federal workers may not have a choice in whether to take the deferral — resulting in them receiving smaller paychecks in 2021 until the past-due taxes are paid off.

Trump’s order specifically targets the 6.2 percent tax that employers deduct from their workers’ wages so the government can fund Social Security. His directive postpones payment of those taxes until January, at which point employers are required to start collecting back what is owed, perhaps by withholding double the amount they usually take until May. The deferral applies only to people who earn up to $4,000 on a biweekly basis, and less than $104,000 annually.

Trump in recent weeks has promised to “terminate” the tax bills Americans rack up during that time, hoping to spare workers from having to repay those debts down the road. But he can’t cut taxes unilaterally, and his pledge has earned virtually no support on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers in both parties have been reluctant to touch the funding source for the country’s cash-starved retirement programs — and are unlikely to do so before potentially millions of workers’ tax bills are due.

Trump’s push to defer payroll taxes could lead to smaller paychecks for workers in early 2021, Treasury signals

The idea has proven so problematic that few businesses have expressed any interest in carrying out Trump’s order, even as the government prepares to implement the change for federal employees starting in a few weeks. With so much uncertainty, union leaders unleashed a barrage of criticism on the White House. Everett Kelley, the national president of the American Federation of Government Employees, blasted Trump’s policy on
Monday as a “scam that leaves workers with a substantial tax bill right after the holiday season.”

“Workers will have to pay double their regular payroll tax rate during the first four months of 2021, and if they cannot do so, they will have to pay interest and penalties on amounts still owed if they’re not paid back by May 1, 2021,” Kelley said.

Rachel Semmel, a spokeswoman at the Office of Management and Budget, did not respond to questions Monday about whether the deferral would be optional.

“The president put forward this action to give relief to all Americans during this pandemic,” she said in a statement, adding that the executive branch as an employer is “implementing the deferral to give our employees relief as quickly as possible, in line with the presidential memo."

President Trump’s attempt to bypass Congress on stimulus is offering only limited economic relief

The early criticism of the government’s plans highlights the wide-ranging confusion caused by Trump’s order, signed in August in an attempt to circumvent a congressional logjam over coronavirus aid. Lawmakers, tax experts, business leaders and payroll-processing companies have raised concerns about its implementation, raising the potential that Trump’s bid to boost workers’ paychecks may result in little economic gain.

It remains unclear, for example, what might happen in the case an employee has his taxes deferred and leaves his job before his employer has a chance to collect what is owed. The implications for nonpayment are vast, threatening to widen the financial hole facing Social Security at a time when many budget experts warn that it is in significant need of reform.

The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service issued only early guardrails describing the program on Friday, four days before Trump’s directive is set to take effect. That has left few businesses in a position to begin deferring payroll taxes in time for Sept. 1, creating further logistical and technical challenges that make it “less likely” for companies to participate at all, said Pete Isberg, the vice president of government affairs for Automatic Data Processing, known as ADP, which processes payroll for about 670,000 firms.

For workers, meanwhile, the concern is that they may lack the means to pay back what they owe. Tony Reardon, the president of the National Treasury Employees Union, said Friday that the roughly 150,000 federal employees he represents may be “unprepared for the higher tax obligation in 2021,” creating particular challenges for IRS workers for whom “overdue tax debt can have severe job consequences.”

President Trump’s attempt to bypass Congress on stimulus is offering only limited economic relief

Most federal agencies use one of four payroll processors, operated by the Defense, Agriculture and Interior departments and the General Services Administration. About 60 percent of the 2.1 million executive-branch employees earn less than $100,000 a year, just below the cutoff set by Trump’s order. Almost all federal employees pay into Social Security on the same terms as other workers; a small percentage are under a retirement system that does not include Social Security.

Almost all federal employees are paid on a biweekly pay cycle that ends on a Saturday; the current cycle started Sunday and will end Sept. 12. Most employees receive pay for that period late in the following week or early in the subsequent week. The aim is to implement the deferral starting with the second paycheck in September, the senior administration official said, setting up workers to begin seeing their taxes deferred around Sept. 18.

In doing so, Democratic Rep. Don Beyer, whose Northern Virginia district includes a large share of federal employees, faulted the White House for treating federal workers like a “guinea pig” for Trump’s policies.

“Their proposed payroll tax deferral would not really put money in workers’ pockets, it would simply set up the members of the federal workforce who can least afford it for a big tax bill that many will not expect,” he said in a statement.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-jobless-claims-archive-united-states-economy-0ad4c225f28cef814e8e0afab3ec0e6a
Screen Shot 2020-10-01 at 5.10.35 PM.png
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits declined last week to a still-high 837,000, evidence that the economy is struggling to sustain a tentative recovery that began this summer.

The Labor Department’s report, released Thursday, suggests that companies are still cutting a historically high number of jobs, though the weekly numbers have become less reliable as states have increased their efforts to root out fraudulent claims and process earlier applications that have piled up.

California, for example, which accounts for more than one-quarter of the nation’s aid applications, this week simply provided the same figure it did the previous week. That’s because the state has stopped accepting new jobless claims for two weeks so it can implement anti-fraud technology and address a backlog of 600,000 applications that are more than three weeks old.


Overall jobless aid has shrunk in recent weeks even as roughly 25 million people rely upon it. The loss of that income is likely to weaken spending and the economy in the coming months.

A $600-a-week federal check that Congress provided in last spring’s economic aid package was available to the unemployed in addition to each state’s jobless benefit. But the $600 benefit expired at the end of July. A $300 weekly benefit that President Donald Trump offered through an executive order lasted only through mid-September, although some states are still working to send out checks for that period.

A result is that Americans’ incomes and spending are declining or slowing. Total paid unemployment benefits plunged by more than half in August, according to the Commerce Department. That pulled down Americans’ incomes for the month by 2.7% — a trend that, if it continues, could weaken economic growth.

Consumer spending did rise 1% that month, down from 1.5% in July. But that increase relied in part on consumers drawing upon their savings.

“Unless employment growth picks up, or additional (government) aid is extended, consumer spending is at risk of slowing dramatically during the second phase of the recovery,” said Gregory Daco, an economist at Oxford Economics.

Other measures of the U.S. economy have been sending mixed signals. Consumer confidence jumped in September, fueled by optimism among higher-income households, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels. And a measure of pending home sales rose in August to a record high, lifted by ultra-low mortgage rates.

Yet some real-time measures indicate that growth has lost momentum with the viral pandemic still squeezing many employers, especially small retailers, hotels, restaurants and airlines, nearly seven months after it paralyzed the economy. An economic index compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York grew in September at a weaker pace than during the summer months.

In its report on jobless claims Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of people who are continuing to receive benefits fell to 11.8 million, extending a steady decline since spring. That suggests that many of the unemployed are being recalled to their old jobs. Another 12 million people are receiving aid under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which has made the self-employed and gig workers eligible for benefits for the first time.


But the decline in the number of those receiving aid also reflects the fact that tens of thousands of jobless Americans have exhausted their regular state unemployment benefits. Most of them are transitioning to an extended jobless aid program that provides benefits for an additional three months.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits are typically watched as a proxy for layoffs, although the data has become muddied in recent months. The flood of laid-off workers during the pandemic recession overwhelmed state agencies.


The states’ efforts to clear backlogs and uncover fraud in the new program have made it harder to interpret the government’s report on unemployment benefits. Many economists no longer consider it a clear sign of the pace of layoffs.

Initial jobless claims are stuck above the highest levels reached in the 2008-2009 Great Recession. But last week, economists at Goldman Sachs noted that according to other government data, layoffs have fallen below the peaks of a decade ago.

Still, many large companies are announcing further layoffs.

Disney said this week that it’s cutting 28,000 jobs in California and Florida, a consequence of the damage it’s suffered from the viral outbreak and the shutdowns and attendance limits that were imposed in response. Allstate said it will shed 3,800 jobs — 7.5% of its workforce.

And U.S. airlines on Thursday began furloughing more than 32,000 employees, among the many who will likely lose jobs this month as federal aid to the airlines expires. The airlines were barred from cutting jobs as long as they were receiving government assistance. American and United had said they would begin the 32,000 furloughs after lawmakers and the White House failed to agree on a pandemic relief package that would extend the aid to airlines.

On Friday, the government will issue the jobs report for September, the final such report before Election Day, Nov. 3. Analysts have forecast that it will show a gain of 850,000, which would mark the third straight monthly slowdown in job growth. It would mean that the economy has regained just over half the 22 million jobs that were lost to the pandemic.

The unemployment rate is expected to decline from 8.4% to 8.2%, according to data provider FactSet.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
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hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-us-news-economy-bda32f552bd450be2b804131cd5d49e6Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 11.12.34 AM.png
WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers added 661,000 jobs in September, the third straight month of slower hiring and evidence from the final jobs report before the presidential election that the economic recovery has weakened.

With September’s hiring gain, the economy has recovered only slightly more than half the 22 million jobs that were wiped out by the viral pandemic. Nearly 10 million jobs remain lost — more than were shed during the entire 2008-2009 Great Recession. And the pattern of slower hiring will delay a full recovery of jobs: Compared with September’s more modest gain, employers added nearly 1.5 million jobs in August, 1.8 million in July and 4.8 million in June.

The unemployment rate fell last month to 7.9% from 8.4% in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Since April, the rate has tumbled from 14.7%. But last month’s drop in joblessness reflected mainly a drop in the number of people seeking work, rather than a surge in hiring. The government doesn’t count people as unemployed if they aren’t actively looking for a job.

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 11.13.20 AM.png

“There seems to be a worrisome loss of momentum,” said Drew Matus, an economist at MetLife Investment Management. “There’s a lot of caution on the part of employers.”

The September figures, Matus said, show that employers are working their existing employees for longer hours, particularly in services such as retail, warehousing, and restaurants and hotels, and may be reluctant to hire new people. Indeed, last month’s gains appeared to reflect mainly temporarily laid-off workers being recalled to their old jobs, continuing a trend in place since April, rather than people joining new employers. In a worrisome sign, the number of laid-off workers who say their jobs are gone for good rose from 3.4 million to 3.8 million.

The jobs report coincided with other data that suggests that while the economic picture may be improving, the gains have slowed since summer. The economy is under pressure from a range of threats. They include the expiration of federal aid programs that had fueled rehiring and sustained the economy — from a $600-a-week benefit for the unemployed to $500 billion in forgivable short-term loans to small businesses.

Friday’s numbers offered voters a final look at the most important barometer of the U.S. economy before the Nov. 3 presidential election — an election whose outcome was thrown into deeper uncertainty by the announcement early Friday that President Donald Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Still-high unemployment is a potential political liability for Trump. Yet President Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012 even with unemployment at 7.8% on the eve of the election. And even as the economy has struggled to sustain a recovery, it has remained one of the few bright spots in Trump’s otherwise weak political standing. Roughly half of voters approve of his performance on the economy even though only about three in 10 voters believe the country is moving in the right direction.

But the president’s coronavirus diagnosis threatens to upend any political benefit he might derive from public views of the economy. With just a month to go before Election Day, Trump’s health status and his downplaying of a pandemic he has been accused of mishandling could overshadow almost everything else.

The September jobs report showed that women in their prime working years are quitting their jobs and leaving the workforce at much higher rates than men, a sign that remote schooling may be pushing many women to stay home.

“Women continue to bear the brunt of this recession,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter. “They are supervising at-home schooling.”

This is the first U.S. recession in which services jobs have been hardest hit, instead of goods-producing industries like manufacturing, and women make up a greater share of the workforce in service industries like retail and health.

And while the unemployment rate for Black workers fell sharply last month, it remained much higher than for whites. The African-American rate fell to 12.1% in September from 13% the previous month. For whites, unemployment dropped rom 7.3% to 7%. For Hispanics, the jobless rate fell from 10.5% to 10.3%.

A recent wave of layoffs by large companies has heightened fears that the viral outbreak still poses a serious threat to the economy.

Disney said this week that it’s cutting 28,000 jobs, a consequence of reduced customer traffic and capacity limits at Disney World in Florida and the ongoing closure of Disneyland in California.

Allstate said it will shed 3,800 jobs, or 7.5% of its workforce. Marathon Petroleum, the Ohio refiner, is slashing 2,000 jobs. And tens of thousands of airline workers are losing their jobs this month as federal aid to the airlines expires. The airlines had been barred from cutting jobs as long as they were receiving the government assistance.

While congressional negotiations, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, continue, the prospect of a major new economic aid package before the November elections is highly uncertain.

The United States is hardly alone in struggling with a weakened job market. Unemployment has risen for a fifth straight month in Europe in August and is expected to grow further amid concern that government support programs won’t be able keep many businesses hit by coronavirus restrictions afloat indefinitely.

Until a vaccine is developed, many economists say hiring and economic growth won’t fully recover. Restaurants, for example, rehired many employees over the summer as outdoor dining picked up. But as temperatures cool, business may fall off again, which could force many restaurants to lay off workers again. One in six restaurants have shut down because of the viral pandemic, the National Restaurant Association says.

Slowing job growth has raised the specter of a prolonged downturn that feeds on itself and becomes harder to fully reverse. Many temporary layoffs are becoming permanent as hotels, restaurants, airlines, retailers, entertainment venues and other employers anticipate a longer slump than they initially expected. There is also growing fear of a resurgence of the virus, which would compound the threat.

The longer that laid-off workers fail to find jobs, the more likely it is that they will have to look for new work with new employers or in different occupations.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Here we go down the next rabbit hole Trump's temper tantrums are going to send us.
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https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-donald-trump-financial-markets-seoul-hong-kong-e3482018c3c8de77076254e631e9d585
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NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks dropped suddenly on Wall Street Tuesday afternoon after President Donald Trump ordered a stop to negotiations with Democrats over another round of stimulus for the economy, which has been punched into a recession by shutdowns related to the coronavirus pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung instantly from a gain of about 200 points to a loss of about 300 points. The series of tweets from the president came just hours after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell urged Congress to come through with more aid, saying that too little support “would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses.”

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE: AP’s earlier story appears below.

Stocks are drifting in afternoon trading on Wall Street Tuesday, as the market’s momentum slows following the S&P 500’s best day in more than three weeks and another rocky stretch of trading.

The benchmark index was 0.1% higher after flipping between very small gains and losses throughout the day. Other stock markets around the world made mostly modest gains, while longer-term Treasury yields were hanging close to their highest levels in months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 96 points, or 0.3%, at 28,245, as of 12:57 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1% lower.

Most stocks across the market were rising, and roughly two in three within the S&P 500 were higher. Companies that would benefit most from a strengthening economy gained ground, including banks, airlines and industrial companies like Caterpillar. Utilities rose 1.4% for the biggest gain among its 11 broad sectors, while energy stocks gained 1.1%.

Smaller stocks were strengthening more than the rest of the market in another sign of improved optimism. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks was up 1.5%.

But many of the big stocks that carried Wall Street back to record heights during the summer were wavering. Apple was down 1%, Microsoft slipped 1.1% and Amazon dipped 1.4%. Movements for these behemoths have an outsized effect on the S&P 500 and other indexes that give bigger weights to companies based on their market value.

Trading on Wall Street has gotten even shakier recently as investors contend with a long list of uncertainties, from President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis to waxing and waning expectations about Congress’ ability to deliver another round of stimulus for the economy.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.8% on Monday after Trump said he’s returning to the White House to complete his recovery from the coronavirus, though his medical team said he’s not yet fully “out of the woods.”

Some investors are also getting more hopeful that another big rescue package may be on the way, even though bitter partisanship on Capitol Hill has been preventing a compromise. Reports on the economy have been mixed recently, as some areas show a slowdown after extra unemployment benefits and other stimulus earlier approved by Congress expired.

“We continue to fail to understand how it is that any incumbent dare face his or her voters on November 3 without having passed the (new) stimulus package,” said Julian Emanuel, BTIG chief equity and derivatives strategist. “Which is why we continue to think there’s a reasonable chance something will get done.”

A report on Tuesday showed that U.S. employers advertised slightly fewer job openings in August than the prior month. But the number was nevertheless better than economists expected.

In the short term, Democrats and Republicans are continuing their talks on a stimulus deal as Election Day draws near. In the longer term, investors are seeing a higher probability for a big stimulus package if Democrats sweep the elections, which Wall Street sees as a likelier possibility than before.

The Federal Reserve’s chair, Jerome Powell, has repeatedly urged Congress to provide additional aid, saying the Fed can’t prop up the economy by itself, even with interest rates at record lows.

“The expansion is still far from complete,” Powell said in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, group of corporate and academic economists. “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy, and holding back wage growth.”

Still, several big challenges lie ahead of markets. Chief among them is the still-raging pandemic, as so clearly illustrated by Trump’s stay in the hospital. The worry is that a ramp-up in infections could cause governments to bring back some of the restrictions they put on businesses early this year, which sent the economy hurtling into a recession.

“We’re on the eve of earnings season and people are reasonably undecided as to whether the correction that started in September has further to run,” BTIG’s Emanuel said.

The upcoming election also still means a host of uncertainty about tax rates and regulations on businesses, while tensions between the United States and China continue to simmer.

In Asian trading, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.5%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong jumped 0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3%.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX returned 0.6%, and the French CAC 40 rose 0.5%. The FTSE 100 in London rose 0.1%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 0.77% from 0.78% late Monday. While that’s still incredibly low, the yield has been generally climbing since dropping close to 0.50% in early August.
 
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