Pandemic 2020

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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The fear of vaccinated people contracting and testing positive for the virus appears to be overblown:

.01% of fully vaccinated people in Washington state test positive for COVID-19
Among the more than 1 million Washingtonians who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, 102 people have tested positive for COVID-19 more than two weeks after their vaccinations, the state Department of Health said Tuesday.

Those cases include eight people who have been hospitalized. Two deaths are also being investigated as possible “vaccine breakthrough” cases, the department said.

The vaccine breakthrough cases, which the department says are expected with any vaccine, represent .01% of the people who have been fully vaccinated and were tallied since Feb. 1, says a DOH news release issued Tuesday.

Clinical trials have shown COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus by up to 95%, but a small percentage of fully vaccinated people can still be expected to get it, the release says.

Clinical trials have shown COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus by up to 95%, but a small percentage of fully vaccinated people can still be expected to get it, the release says.

Breakthrough cases have been identified in 18 counties. Most of the people with confirmed vaccine breakthrough experienced only mild symptoms, if any, according to DOH. The two patients who died were both older than 80 and had underlying heath conditions.



Can somebody explain the apparent contradiction?

COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus by 90 - 95%. BUT only 0.01% of people who are fully vaccinated test positive for Covid-19.

Does anybody understand how both of those statement can be true?
Not without seeing the homework behind the numbers. I think they were being very conservative in their efficacy estimates. I'm not sure what their goal post was in the trials, but subsequently they have found that most people who are vaccinated do not catch it at all and those who do are much less contagious. I think they might have to start breaking the numbers down by variants from here on out, all covid types are not equal in terms of R0, virulence and vaccine response. The UK strain appears to be the most contagious and is winning the race to infect the most people, it also appears to be more virulent and is afflicting younger people.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
The results do not come from them actively searching for and testing people who are fully vaccinated, only tells of the people who felt the need to get tested after being fully vaccinated. I am sure of the 1 million people who are fully vaccinated, not all of them are going to get covid tested if they feel some type of way (most likely mild if any symptoms). You can't really compare the effectiveness and the 0.01% that tested positive afterwards
So, it's an artifact of a crappy testing program. If what you say is true. I figured that was a possibility but it's not what the newspaper said.

Whatever. 90-95% effective at preventing infection by the wild strain of coronavirus is pretty good. We'll see if the new strains get enough steam up to make us go through another cycle of death.
 
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printer

Well-Known Member
Yeah, they really missed the ball on the mutation predictions, I remember "experts saying that they predicted years for Covid mutations to take place WRONG, just likr they were on the original masking policy, remember healthy individuals only needed to maintain social distancing, also quite mistaken on the surface contamination thing(though it is probable that it stopped flu season in its tracks), as covid transmission is probably at least 90% aerosol spread.ccguns
There was an initial strain in Wuhan, it did not leave the area but was crowded out by two variants that got out of China. Then one traveled west to Europe and the other went to the other Asian countries and then got to the West Coast of the US. They have been tracking the movements of the virus by its mutations right from the start.

This is an interesting page that shows how the new variants pushed the others aside.


And the mutations. I can not seem to find the page I want.



There was a page that you could view the data, put your pointer over the dots and read which mutation it is. You could view the tree over time, it stepping through the data and it showing the movement across the world.

 
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Sativied

Well-Known Member
Can somebody explain the apparent contradiction?

COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus by 90 - 95%. BUT only 0.01% of people who are fully vaccinated test positive for Covid-19.

Does anybody understand how both of those statement can be true?
They’re not. “COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus by 90 - 95%”. Unfortunately that’s not really what that 90-95% means, it means 0-10% of a nonvaccinated population gets symptomatic covid over a period of time (the trial period) given a certain spread rate. That efficiacy percentage is based on the difference with the vaccinated and the placebo group. The actual effectiveness is typically lower but can be higher. If in an unvaccinated population 1000 out if 100k get sick, it would mean 90-95% less (so 50-100 people) get sick in a vaccinated population of the same size.

To draw any conclusions about the efficiacy of vaccination from the fact only 0.01% of the million Washingtoners got sick you’d have to compare it to a million who haven’t been vaccinated. Based on the claimed efficiacy however, there should be, in theory, 10-20 times as many sick in a million unvaccinated Washingtoners. To draw any hard conclusions about the effectiveness is much harder, as there are many other reasons why those vaccinated Washingtoners didn‘t get infected, and sick, than getting vaccinated.

If that sounds confusing it’s cause it is. Simply put 90-95% efficiacy means 90-95% less zombies than without vaccination. It doesn’t say anything about how much of the population turns into zombies, and it doesn’t mean 5-10% of the population becomes a zombie.

Is Washingtoner a word? :?:

(edited: oops)
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Found it. There are arrows and a row of dots at the left top which steps you through different options.

A useful scientific tool for professionals, timely information sharing speeds up scientific progress. We are not swinging blindly in the dark here, the power of our knowledge and response is evolving much quicker than the virus can, we do things exponentially too these days.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Here is a market for some enterprising company to develop and build scaled mRNA facilities in a number of countries, there are many eager customers out there. mRNA strand data can be emailed FFS and we all cooperate on the front end of vaccine development and produce our own vaccines as well as for others. These facilities can be used to produce future flu vaccines and cancer treatments, as well as standing by for pandemic response. If trade agreements interfere in any way with this, they are dropped or renegotiated, we need a domestic supply chain too for vaccines and PPE. Never again.

I wanna know how many Canadians died because of this oversight and I want it corrected, I'm a liberal party member and I made it clear to certain people that I'll vote for a fucking Tory if they don't do it! I figure lot of people think that way and the government knows it. The liberals are still doing well in the polls, despite this screw up, but they know they better have a plan or more come election day, cause the other two parties will.
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Lack of vaccine capacity propels Canada into global race to attract drug companies - POLITICO

Lack of vaccine capacity propels Canada into global race to attract drug companies
Canada has had to rely entirely on over-burdened foreign supply chains for a Covid vaccine rollout that has lagged international peers.

OTTAWA — Canada's race for Covid vaccines quickly exposed a flaw: It lacked the capacity to produce any.
The absence of domestic manufacturing forced the Trudeau government from the get-go into a global competition to attract drug producers to the country’s shores.

So far, Canada has had to rely entirely on over-burdened foreign supply chains for a Covid vaccine rollout that has lagged international peers, including the United States.

“We started, I would say, in a position that I don’t want to find ourselves to be in the future, whatever may come next,” Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne told POLITICO in a recent interview.
But even as the government works to get the country ahead of Covid variants, it's determined to establish better footing for the next pandemic. It's not alone.

“Many countries of the world have drawn the same conclusion as Canada, that they would want to have more domestic capacity. ... Part of the challenge is getting [companies’] attention and attracting them to Canada,” Champagne added.

Lessons from the fallout: The biomanufacturing scarcity in Canada has highlighted the health risks of foreign dependence as well as the political ones.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has faced flak for Canada’s program to get doses into arms. Trudeau has predicted everyone who wants to get vaccinated will be able to by September, though he’s recently said the timeline could end up being shorter. Just 1.76 percent of Canadians were fully vaccinated as of March 27 and only around 10 percent had received one dose, says the Public Health Agency of Canada.

Last year, his government signed contracts totaling more than C$1 billion with eight drug companies to line up promising vaccine candidates from abroad. Canada, however, won’t have the capacity to produce its own Covid-19 vaccine until the end of 2021 at the earliest.

Criticism has focused on whether Canada could have produced its own vaccines, rather than depending on international drug shipments, some of which have seen delays.

Trudeau has acknowledged the pandemic caught the world off guard and there’s been much to learn from it.

Canada’s pitch to pharma: Champagne, who is Trudeau’s point person on rebuilding vaccine manufacturing in Canada, said he’s been working the phones with pharma CEOs trying to entice them to invest in the country.
The minister’s sales pitch includes promoting Canada’s research institutes, its highly skilled labor force and how it has the smallest population in the G-7.

“That is a true advantage because on one hand you can come here and satisfy our domestic needs relatively quickly and you can use Canada as a base to export to the world,” he said, noting Canada has trade deals with the Pacific Rim, Europe and North America.

The biggest obstacle? Champagne, who was foreign minister until Trudeau shuffled him into his new job in January, says it’s getting the companies’ attention in a crowded global field.

Future planning: Dr. Alan Bernstein, a member of Canada’s Covid-19 Vaccine Task Force, said in an interview that the pandemic has reinforced the need for governments to partner with the private sector.
For example, he said the U.S. government has had success by partnering with drugmakers on a vaccine through the Trump administration’s accelerator Operation Warp Speed. In contrast, he said the European Union decided it would only be a consumer.

“And look who’s in bad shape these days,” said Bernstein, who’s also president and CEO of CIFAR, a Canadian-based global research organization. “When there’s a pandemic — and there will be another one, of course … there’s a public interest at stake and therefore there has to be a public investment on the line.”

Bernstein argued Canada falls somewhere in between the U.S. and the EU because it secured vaccine doses and started investing in its own production capacity for the future.

From bad to worse: He said successive governments over the past 25 years failed to encourage drug companies to stay in Canada.

“We never worried about it because, of course, we had supply,” Bernstein said. “There was always lots of it around, so it was never viewed as being an issue until this pandemic came along.”

Pamela Fralick, who heads the pharma industry association in Canada, said that conditions in the country haven’t been hospitable to the sector for decades. In recent years, she said the Trudeau government's costly regulatory measures made it worse.

Fralick, the president of Innovative Medicines Canada, said that prior to the pandemic relations between government and industry were at a low point. Global pharma CEOs, who have the power to direct the investments, reached out to the Trudeau government four times pre-pandemic and “effectively didn’t get any kind of meaningful response,” she said.
“We couldn’t even really get meetings with a minister as an association here in Canada,” said Fralick, who added that the pandemic has lowered the tensions and led to a “fragile, but positive change.”

Trudeau himself has highlighted his direct conversations in recent months with the top global pharma executives, including Pfizer’s Dr. Albert Bourla.

The global race: Bernstein said the pandemic has forced countries to find ways to shore up vaccine supplies, an environment that has created bidding wars with manufacturers.

"[They want] to make sure that, for the next pandemic, they’re not caught with their pants down," he said. “Every politician is highly motivated to fix this situation.”

Fralick said the pandemic has indeed launched an international contest.

“Just about every country in the world will feel blindsided by this pandemic. ... Canada’s certainly not alone,” she said, noting only a handful of countries produce the vaccines. “We were caught flat footed.”

The effort, so far: Last week, Champagne announced a federal investment of up to C$415 million towards a new Sanofi flu vaccine manufacturing facility in Toronto. The deal offered a roughly 50-50 split between governments and industry.
Fralick, who doesn’t know the terms of the deal, said “50-cent dollars” must have taken precedence over the company’s concerns about some of the other issues.

In February, Trudeau announced a memorandum of understanding with Novavax Inc. that would see the company produce its Covid-19 vaccines at a new Montreal facility, which received C$126 million in funding.

The facility is expected to be ready to produce vaccine in late 2021. The Novavax vaccine is still under review and has yet to receive Health Canada approval.

The government has also announced deals to expand biomanufacturing with domestic companies, including investments of up to C$173 million with Medicago and C$25.1 million with Precision NanoSystems Inc.

What’s next: Champagne says Canada is in talks with numerous players. “We’re trying to advance as many of them as possible and I think you’ll see more coming,” he said. “I don’t have a crystal ball, but I think we need to be better prepared for whatever may come next.”
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
This should help to heat up the fire under Justin's ass. The problem is international supply, not coordination, just a squabble about limited supply.
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As the U.S. Vaccinates Millions for Covid-19, Most Canadians Are Still Waiting - WSJ

As the U.S. Vaccinates Millions for Covid-19, Most Canadians Are Still Waiting
Canada’s vaccine rollout has been among the slowest in major economies, and it is imposing fresh lockdowns as virus variants spread

The U.S. economy is opening up and Covid-19 vaccines are increasingly available. But its neighbor to the north has had one of the slowest vaccine rollouts among developed economies, and is now imposing new lockdowns to stem a surge in infections.

Canada’s lockdowns come as new, more contagious variants of the coronavirus have taken hold in the country. The rapid spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the U.K., and P.1 variant, which originated in Brazil, has forced authorities in Canada’s biggest provinces to impose new stay-at-home orders and in some cases, shut down schools.

The country’s vaccine rollout, stymied by supply-chain problems and a lack of coordination at the federal and provincial levels, contrasts with its initial, aggressive response to securing doses earlier in the pandemic. Canada clinched deals with eight vaccine makers, the bulk of them completed before late last year, for access to as much as 404 million doses—the most doses per capita of any advanced economy.

But Canada has been slow to get those shots into people’s arms, and Canadians have watched with envy the progress in the U.S.

Data collected by the University of Oxford’s Our World in Data shows Canada had provided one or more doses to about 16% of its population as of Tuesday, whereas the U.S. had covered 32% of its population, the U.K. was at 47% and Israel had reached 61%.
 

CunningCanuk

Well-Known Member
I've alway's seen woman as able to carry a heavier burden and keep things together than men are,no argument from me, also been amazed at how some mothers can juggle a overwhelming amount of things to do day in and day out without complaining, all you need now is to be able to kick our asses and you could reduce us to drone bees.LOLccguns
My wife can kick my ass, as well.
 

CunningCanuk

Well-Known Member
They’re not. “COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus by 90 - 95%”. Unfortunately that’s not really what that 90-95% means, it means 0-10% of a nonvaccinated population gets symptomatic covid over a period of time (the trial period) given a certain spread rate. That efficiacy percentage is based on the difference with the vaccinated and the placebo group. The actual effectiveness is typically lower but can be higher. If in an unvaccinated population 1000 out if 100k get sick, it would mean 90-95% less (so 50-100 people) get sick in a vaccinated population of the same size.

To draw any conclusions about the efficiacy of vaccination from the fact only 0.01% of the million Washingtoners got sick you’d have to compare it to a million who haven’t been vaccinated. Based on the claimed efficiacy however, there should be, in theory, 10-20 times as many sick in a million unvaccinated Washingtoners. To draw any hard conclusions about the effectiveness is much harder, as there are many other reasons why those vaccinated Washingtoners didn‘t get infected, and sick, than getting vaccinated.

If that sounds confusing it’s cause it is. Simply put 90-95% efficiacy means 90-95% less zombies than without vaccination. It doesn’t say anything about how much of the population turns into zombies, and it doesn’t mean 5-10% of the population becomes a zombie.

Is Washingtoner a word? :?:

(edited: oops)
I finished smoking a joint a few minutes before I read this. After reading it 3 more times I still don’t get it.

I’ll try again later when I come down. You better answer my PM if I send you one.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
I finished smoking a joint a few minutes before I read this. After reading it 3 more times I still don’t get it.

I’ll try again later when I come down. You better answer my PM if I send you one.
I’d fire myself too if I was Biden and on my staff :eyesmoke::eyesmoke: Not my most clear post ever and can’t even spell efficacy.

Efficacy is the degree to which a vaccine prevents disease, and possibly also transmission, under ideal and controlled circumstances – comparing a vaccinated group with a placebo group. Effectiveness meanwhile refers to how well it performs in the real world. Although a vaccine that has high efficacy – such as Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine with 94.5% efficacy and Pfizer’s with 90% efficacy – would be expected to be highly effective in the real world, it is unlikely to translate into the same effectiveness in practice.

WHAT IS EFFICACY?
A vaccine with an efficacy of 90% in a trial, for instance, means there was a 90% reduction in cases of disease in the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated (or placebo) group. But efficacy in laboratory conditions does not always translate to effectiveness, and so an efficacy trial can overestimate a vaccine’s impact in practice.


Or from Canada’s CCV:

Don’t tell the anti-vaxxers lol

With flu vaccines it seems the effectiveness is at the low end of the efficacy range of 40-60%, which just shows how awesome the covid vaccines are in comparison regardless.

Anyway, feel free to PM. Codeword is the name of the most awesome coolest Canadian who ever lived.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
Got it. Codeword Celine Dion.
"In maybe some alternate Canadian universe. Would you fuck her?" - Anthony Burdain

You’re all wrong, it’s obviously the legendary Léo Major, aka the One-eyed ghost, aka Quebec’s Rambo aka the Great Canadian Liberator (ok I made up the last one).
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
"In maybe some alternate Canadian universe. Would you fuck her?" - Anthony Burdain

You’re all wrong, it’s obviously the legendary Léo Major, aka the One-eyed ghost, aka Quebec’s Rambo aka the Great Canadian Liberator (ok I made up the last one).
Well Canada did develop a strong relationship with Holland during the war and after, we helped liberate and feed the country in it's time of need and sheltered the Royal family for the duration. We get thousands of tulips every year for thanks. We send a Christmas tree to Boston every year too, after the Halifax explosion in 1917 they helped a lot with trainloads of supplies and help then shiploads.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I'm glad Americans are getting vaccinated at a very fast rate, you folks have suffered greatly and the variants are giving you one last kick in the teeth. We are getting pounded up this way too in some places and the virus is on the rise everywhere, including here in NS, where we've been kinda blessed this past year with low case counts. Joe will have all Americans who want a vaccine covered by the end of the month, here in NS Canada it's by the end of June. Those over 55 and healthcare workers etc will be covered by the end of the month here and that should help quite a bit. However the variants are now afflicting younger people and that is the emerging issue, especially front line workers. I expect the border will be opened back up by around July, though I suspect a vaccine passport will be required both ways.
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Canada's third wave on track to become its worst yet as hospitalizations spike - CNN

Canada's third wave on track to become its worst yet as hospitalizations spike

Covid-19 variants are putting younger Canadians in intensive care

(CNN)Canada's third wave of the pandemic is now more serious than the previous two, as hospitalizations and critical care admissions spike and the vaccine rollout is unlikely to change things over the next few weeks.

"The end is definitely in sight but we're not there yet. This third wave is more serious and we need to hang in there for another few weeks to make sure that we can flatten that curve, drop those numbers down again, to give a chance for vaccines to take hold," said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a press conference in Ottawa Friday.

The situation is most serious in Ontario, Canada's most populous province, where officials say the province is close to its 'worst case scenario' projections for the third wave. The province came dangerously close on Friday to shattering a record for a single day increase in cases and has already set a record this week for intensive care unit admissions related to Covid-19.

"We're seeing more and more young people being admitted to hospital with Covid-19. So to young people: There are more contagious and more serious variants out there, even if you're younger, you can get sick very, very quickly," Trudeau said.

Across the country, Canadian health officials say ICU admissions are up more than 20% in the last week alone as all of Canada's most populous provinces cope with a third wave more threatening to the health care system than the last two.

"I can understand the frustration, the anxiety, the concern that Canadians right across the country are feeling in seeing these numbers rise, I share it. I think we're all recognizing that we don't want to be in this third wave but we're here," Trudeau said.

Vaccine rollout will not slow new growth in cases
Although Canada broke a record this week for vaccine doses administered, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, says the vaccine rollout will not slow the rapid growth in cases as more contagious variants spread throughout the country.

"Right now my concern is ... the ICUs filling up, not just hospitalizations, because there is an absolute limit to ICU capacity, not necessarily because of equipment, but because of people," Tam said during Friday's press conference.

The province of Ontario, including Canada's most populous city, Toronto, imposed a provincewide stay-at-home order for at least four weeks beginning Thursday as the third wave threatens to overwhelm hospitals. However, restrictions have only moderately decreased new infections despite the fact that cities like Toronto have been in some form of lockdown since late November.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford imposed the province's third state of emergency since the pandemic began. Nonessential retail stores including malls will close to in-person shopping with only grocery stores, pharmacies and garden centers open to the public.

Restaurant dining rooms, personal care services, and gyms were already closed across the province as last week province official shut down many places but stopped short of a stay-at-home order.

Toronto and the adjacent region of Peel moved students to virtual learning earlier this week just ahead of a previously scheduled spring break. The Ford government says its priority is to keep schools open throughout the province.

Outside of Canada's Atlantic provinces, the third wave of the pandemic is straining hospitals throughout most of the country.

In a statement released Wednesday, Tam underscored the threat of variants spreading and leading to more infections and severe illness, especially among younger Canadians.

"While COVID-19 continues to impact people of all ages in Canada, infection rates are highest among those aged 20 to 39 years of age. As well, we are seeing an increased number of adults, under the age of 60 years being treated for COVID-19 in hospital, including in intensive care units," Tam said.
 
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