Climate in the 21st Century

Will Humankind see the 22nd Century?

  • Not a fucking chance

    Votes: 44 27.5%
  • Maybe. if we get our act together

    Votes: 42 26.3%
  • Yes, we will survive

    Votes: 74 46.3%

  • Total voters
    160

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
we are up to our armpits in quite enough shoddy Chicom merchandise. Just look at Amazon. Finding a “made in France” meat grinder is a lost cause.

(Excluding Treasla) I’ll buy a cheap EV if it is G7 manufacture. I’ll also wait for at least 10km (better 15) per kWH.
The big 3 appear to be focusing on the big vehicles selling for the big bucks and GM is dropping the Bolt in favor of making half ton trucks for example. Elon has Chinese battery connections and senses an opportunity for a cheap EV that more people can afford these days, essentially a model T idea, bring the price point down to increase sales by making cars more affordable. Fewer people can afford a new car with each passing year as they are priced out of reach of many, hopefully EVs with cheap batteries and robot assembly will change that in the future.

If I lived in a warmer climate, I would consider an eBike, most get 1.5 to 1.1 kWh per 100 miles, average. A 2 kWh battery, a 1000-watt motor and some occasional peddling, or none, could get you a long way on a charge! Charge at any 110 AC outlet, you wouldn't want to travel more than 100 miles by bike in a day in most cases even going on a road trip.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
The big 3 appear to be focusing on the big vehicles selling for the big bucks and GM is dropping the Bolt in favor of making half ton trucks for example. Elon has Chinese battery connections and senses an opportunity for a cheap EV that more people can afford these days, essentially a model T idea, bring the price point down to increase sales by making cars more affordable. Fewer people can afford a new car with each passing year as they are priced out of reach of many, hopefully EVs with cheap batteries and robot assembly will change that in the future.

If I lived in a warmer climate, I would consider an eBike, most get 1.5 to 1.1 kWh per 100 miles, average. A 2 kWh battery, a 1000-watt motor and some occasional peddling, or none, could get you a long way on a charge! Charge at any 110 AC outlet, you wouldn't want to travel more than 100 miles by bike in a day in most cases even going on a road trip.
I have not found an e-bike that is California freeway legal and can go 200 miles in 3 hours in a cold rain … on one charge.

The current crop of electric motorcycles has the sort of range that make them useful only for those who live in urban areas. Pfah.

Look at this piece of useless. $7500, top speed 95kph and less than 4 kWh capacity. Where does the shopping store?

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I have not found an e-bike that is California freeway legal and can go 200 miles in 3 hours in a cold rain … on one charge.

The current crop of electric motorcycles has the sort of range that make them useful only for those who live in urban areas. Pfah.

Look at this piece of useless. $7500, top speed 95kph and less than 4 kWh capacity. Where does the shopping store?

I live in a small town so it would be great for short trips with a bit of optional exercise. I was comparing it to a typical touring bicycle where 60 miles would be a good day's drive. A light bike trailer with some solar panels on the roof and a bit more battery could even charge it with that kind of mileage per kWh.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I live in a small town so it would be great for short trips with a bit of optional exercise. I was comparing it to a typical touring bicycle where 60 miles would be a good day's drive. A light bike trailer with some solar panels on the roof and a bit more battery could even charge it with that kind of mileage per kWh.
I’m looking for practical (and legal) transport with some places over 100 miles away, about 95% on the freeway.

My two-wheeled reference article is my previous Harley. With a careful wrist, I could turn 5 gallons of gas into over 300 miles. That’s 1000 lbs counting rider and groceries, at 60mph. You could reliably find me in the right lane.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
While it’s impossible to boycott China entirely, I certainly try to avoid sending them money whenever I can. Buying a Chinese EV would balance out those efforts and can be easily avoided. Don’t know about GM’s brands but most major car makers that offer compact ICE cars will offer compact EVs very soon, a LOT more options in just 1-3 years, ranging from 17k and up. Few years later and it’s all or nearly all electric.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
I live in a small town so it would be great for short trips with a bit of optional exercise. I was comparing it to a typical touring bicycle where 60 miles would be a good day's drive. A light bike trailer with some solar panels on the roof and a bit more battery could even charge it with that kind of mileage per kWh.
Sounds like you need a typical dutch ebike. Population NL 18 mil, 23mil bicycles, of which 6mil are ebikes (which here refers to bicycles never motorcycles). A third of the population 12y and older uses an ebike, but 80% of new bicycles is an ebike. Price range 1k-4k. i.o.w... we have a ton of them. They were designed to make the eldery more mobile, which worked, we now got 80y olds going up to 25km/h passing 5km/h stoners like me on regular bikes. But everyone else wants them too. That’s a lot of batteries… Plus everyone and their kids on ebikes getting fatter.

I have never seen anyone drag a trailer around with solar panels though lol. Some carry an extra battery but rarely. Plenty of public charging spots throughout the country. Also an increasing amount of bicycle freeways and companies sponsoring ebikes for their employees.

40miles easily in any case (they do roughly 14km per 100Wh, some over 20), 60miles is also easily doable on a typical ebike here (500-800Wh) especially in light support mode, where you still get a bit of light excercise (which is actually more comfortable than sitting still).

Typical models, first one is most common classic city ebike model:

C5B9EDE2-E0CF-447D-835D-7E3C2919B09D.jpeg

42786E34-09AC-431B-8611-0C1232003DC6.jpeg
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The solar camping bike trailer is for those who like to tour and camp, and the trailer too could have batteries and even side folding "wings" to increase the area if required. I've seen lots of light weight bike trailers for those who like to bike tour.

If circumstances are right an ebike is a good economical choice for many, but bikes are not driven here in winter even though we are further south than you. However, the winters are getting shorter with warm spells and late arrivals. I figure the ebikes will get cheaper as the batteries get cheaper, right now fire safety is a concern for many and insurance companies, but future safer batteries should deal with that. At the rate battery factories are going up with the variety of chemistries and improvements coming on stream that cheap batteries are just a few years away.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus

Sativied

Well-Known Member
The solar camping bike trailer is for those who like to tour and camp, and the trailer too could have batteries and even side folding "wings" to increase the area if required. I've seen lots of light weight bike trailers for those who like to bike tour.

If circumstances are right an ebike is a good economical choice for many, but bikes are not driven here in winter even though we are further south than you. However, the winters are getting shorter with warm spells and late arrivals. I figure the ebikes will get cheaper as the batteries get cheaper, right now fire safety is a concern for many and insurance companies, but future safer batteries should deal with that. At the rate battery factories are going up with the variety of chemistries and improvements coming on stream that cheap batteries are just a few years away.
If you’re going to use a trailer anyway than sure, why not add some solar on it. It’s not like people here don’t charge ebike batteries from solar, like on a camper, and plenty of people experiment, just never seen one do it while they’re driving it. With a little help you can drive for 6 hours straight at top speed of 25km/h, less with trailer of course but still plenty. A spare battery gives you a total of 8 hours, more than enough for a day, charge both overnight, and costs only 200-500 bucks. With a typical price of 2000 for the bike including battery they won’t get much cheaper regardless of battery advances. In practice that just means you get more range, lifetime and/or faster charging, not a cheaper bike.

These have been for sale since 2013, company went bankrupt in 2019.
A3975634-94F2-4825-88A1-324D42CFDB53.jpeg

As for fire safety, it does happen, at least weekly, most commonly by using cheap chargers from ali or bad choice of charging spots. Gotta educate consumers for sure. But with 5million ebikes, that‘s rare enough to cover. Fires caused by people charging phones and tablets is more common and isn’t stopping anyone from using those either. Battery fire phobia, didn’t know that was still a thing. :)

Most people do continue to use their bicycles during winter here indeed, ebikes only make that easier (driving a bicycle in winter takes more energy). An alternative, slightly more suitable during colder months especially with windscreen and helmet:

EE00635F-5772-4423-A79A-D0B8C5A008CC.jpeg

These e-scooters were expected to become very common before the ebike took most of the pie. The above is an example of a “share scooter”. Parked at differents spots throughout cities. Costs roughly 25 cents per minute, 45km/h tops, range 40-60miles too. It’s activated and payment is handled via an app. At destination, or anywhere, park it. At night a van picks them up, batteries are replaced, and they are then parked at better spots again (such as train stations).
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Deep-sea mining: The race for critical minerals

5,242 views Jul 10, 2023
There are billions of tonnes of valuable minerals for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage at the bottom of the ocean, and a Canadian-registered company is leading the race to mine them. But marine scientists and environmentalists say it's likely to risk a sea floor ecosystem about which little is known. Negotiations are underway at the International Seabed Authority this month in Jamaica.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
I have not found an e-bike that is California freeway legal and can go 200 miles in 3 hours in a cold rain … on one charge.

The current crop of electric motorcycles has the sort of range that make them useful only for those who live in urban areas. Pfah.

Look at this piece of useless. $7500, top speed 95kph and less than 4 kWh capacity. Where does the shopping store?

https://www.motorcycle.com/specs/piaggio/scooter/2022/liberty/150/detail.html
My scooter costs half as much, gets well over 100 mpg unless you keep it wide open constantly, goes 60 effortlessly, will hit 70 if you let it wind up a little...And has an IGET engine
https://www.vespamag.com/en/2212/a-revolution-the-iget-engine

Yes, it is NOT an EV, but it sure seems a damn sight better than any car, and most motorcycles, as far as economy and environmental impact.
BMW and all the major makers are just going to have to do better...
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Efficient solar enhanced electroliers powered by solar power farms could be a game changer for Australia. Australia has vast quantities of iron ore that it currently sends to China for smelting using coal, they could make green steel with green hydrogen at home instead using solar power. Heating iron ore to 400C with hydrogen gas causes the oxygen in the ore to be turned into water vapor leaving iron "sponge" behind for later reduction in electric arc furnaces. Australia has abundant solar power and lots of desert land to put solar panels on and might make a lot of green steel in a couple of decades. They have the iron ore and could have the hydrogen and energy to produce plenty of green steel using green power and hydrogen in a decade. I sure many including the government see the opportunities that plunging solar power prices and other technical advances are presenting to their large iron mining industry. Ship steel and iron to China, even iron sponge, instead of iron ore and it will significantly lower carbon emissions from China's steel industry, Australia will have the solar energy to process it at home in an environmentally friendly value-added form cheaply.

 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
A2D9A051-243C-4541-9FF6-CAA033581C71.jpeg

Surface temperatures in Spain after days of hot weather with temps up to 113f/45c. The dark areas in the south west are surface temps of up to 140f/60c.

A former coworker who has been living in Madrid for years is seriously considering moving back up north as things look to become even crazier than last year. Those along the Costas are dealing with sea water of 77f.. I remember the rest of EU complaining about lazy Spaniards and their daily siesta, work from 8:30 to 13:30, siesta, work from 16:30 to 20:00. Still not rare for some areas/people but less common since EU regulations caused more companies to remain open. The way things are going, we may have to reconsider and reintroduce a daily siesta throughout a larger part of europe,


In Italy, temperatures could reach as high as 48.8C (119.8F)
 

VaSmile

Well-Known Member
double whammy


What is going on in the far south is absoultly crazy.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
What is going on in the far south is absoultly crazy.
Yes. This happened last year. I fear it is the first of many hot excursions.

All we need is a big glacier like Thwaites coming unpinned, and bye-bye Venice, Dhaka, Amsterdam. And a coupla south pacific island nations.

I’m over 60 — and might see it happening in
my lifetime. We live, alas, in interesting times.

 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/13/us-firefighters-raise-concerns-over-looming-pay-cut

We've been paying federal wildfire fighting firemen $15 bucks an hour? That is motherfucking insulting.
The fat leeches sitting on their asses in the house and senate make 174K a year, while people who go out and try to stop the world from burning, literally, make somewhere around 30K? They have to at LEAST double that, throw in FULL benefits, triple would be more realistic.
I wouldn't blame a single one of them that walks away and doesn't look back till this is made right.
 

VaSmile

Well-Known Member
Yes. This happened last year. I fear it is the first of many hot excursions.

All we need is a big glacier like Thwaites coming unpinned, and bye-bye Venice, Dhaka, Amsterdam. And a coupla south pacific island nations.

I’m over 60 — and might see it happening in
my lifetime. We live, alas, in interesting times.

Last year was odd and concerning, this year is a whole other level. 2022 had record low minimum extent and record low daily extent for about 130day. 2023 beat that record low minimum and have set daily low extent records for 145days so far most of them by a wide margen and if tends continue will set a record low maximum by 1.5mil km².
If you read the thread on the thwaites you can see deteriation well into the SH fall.
The artic is not as depressing this year by the number so far, but when i look at the NSIDC concentation map i see a lot of light blue and very little white(high concentration) in what is predicted to be a highly active hurrican season it will only take 1 major storm to take the norther root to change that picture dramaticly. Watchung interviews of the people who provid data to the IPCC they all say we are constantly learning of more excelaration processes contributing to sea lever rise that are not in thr current models and simulations. Im not a scientist but all this added up tells me most of our long term predictions are about to be accelerated by a decade or so. 10 years ago i did not think i would live to see land masses slip into the sea but now i am convinced I'll out live the everglades and OBX, possible a major port city like norfolk or miami
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Last year was odd and concerning, this year is a whole other level. 2022 had record low minimum extent and record low daily extent for about 130day. 2023 beat that record low minimum and have set daily low extent records for 145days so far most of them by a wide margen and if tends continue will set a record low maximum by 1.5mil km².
If you read the thread on the thwaites you can see deteriation well into the SH fall.
The artic is not as depressing this year by the number so far, but when i look at the NSIDC concentation map i see a lot of light blue and very little white(high concentration) in what is predicted to be a highly active hurrican season it will only take 1 major storm to take the norther root to change that picture dramaticly. Watchung interviews of the people who provid data to the IPCC they all say we are constantly learning of more excelaration processes contributing to sea lever rise that are not in thr current models and simulations. Im not a scientist but all this added up tells me most of our long term predictions are about to be accelerated by a decade or so. 10 years ago i did not think i would live to see land masses slip into the sea but now i am convinced I'll out live the everglades and OBX, possible a major port city like norfolk or miami
I have wonderful childhood memories of our annual beach trip to Fenwick Island (Delaware right by Maryland). (saw it again in ‘06 … it’s all built up and the beach was crusted in boomboxes. The old home movies show a small motel every half mile.) It’s not just the Outer Banks but every barrier island terrain from the Jersey shore to Padre Island.

At least Spacex pad cooling issue will be self-correcting. ;)
 
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