"Why did Hamas attack now?
Hamas’s move was triggered by three factors. First, the policies of the far-right Israeli government enabling settler violence in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem led to a sense of desperation among Palestinians and growing demands for a reaction. At the same time, the rising tensions in the West Bank caused by these policies necessitated the shift of Israeli forces away from the south and into the north to guard the settlements. This gave Hamas both a justification and an opportunity to attack.
Second, the Hamas leadership felt compelled to act due to the acceleration of Arab-Israeli normalisation. In recent years, this process further diminished the significance of the Palestinian issue for Arab leaders who became less keen on pressuring Israel on this matter.
If a Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal had been concluded, it would have been a turning point in the Arab-Israeli conflict, which may have eliminated the already weak chances of a two-state solution. This was also part of Hamas’s calculations.
Third, Hamas was emboldened after it managed to repair its ties with Iran. In recent years, the movement had to reconsider the political position it assumed in the wake of the Arab Spring in 2011, in opposition to Iran and its ally, the Syrian regime.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has said that he was personally involved in improving the relations between Hamas and Damascus. A Hamas delegation visited Damascus in October 2022 and its political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh travelled to Beirut in April and Tehran in June. Just last month, Nasrallah hosted the Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Ziad al-Nakhalah and the deputy chief of Hamas’s political bureau Saleh al-Arouri."
"What is Hamas’s end game?
Three days into Hamas’s surprising and overwhelming attack, it is not clear what its end game is and what it can do to reap long-term benefits. Its priority has seemed to be to take both military and civilian hostages to help deter aggressive Israeli retaliation and later exchange them for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
However, Israel does not appear to be deterred. Hamas spokesperson Abu Ubaida has said that Israeli bombardment has killed four Israeli citizens held in Gaza. He has also warned that the movement will start killing hostages if Israel strikes civilian homes in Gaza without warning; this might backfire against Hamas if implemented.
The Hamas leadership has said that the objectives of the attacks are ending “Israeli violations”, securing the release of Palestinian prisoners, and “returning to the project of establishing a state”. Hamas may be able to secure a prisoner swap deal with Israel, although, in the past, many of those released from Israeli prisons had been quickly rearrested. But the group does not have a clear roadmap for moving forward on “establishing a state” and it cannot have one separately from the Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank."
"What is next?
Israel has struggled to recover from the attack. It has intensified its bombardment of the Gaza Strip and announced a total blockade on the coastal enclave, turning off electricity and blocking humanitarian aid. Netanyahu’s government was already facing domestic turmoil before the attack due to its judicial reforms; its stability will now be tested even further.
Israel will have to decide whether to undertake a ground invasion and if it is worth the military and political costs. Whether it proceeds with it or not, sooner or later its military operation, including the excessive bombardment of the strip, will have to come to an end. At that point, Israel will have to ask for Egypt to mediate some kind of conclusion of this escalation and a deal to exchange prisoners.
When the Israeli assault ends, Hamas, which has gained more legitimacy in Gaza and the West Bank with its operation, will also face the challenge of translating it into policies and governance that would serve the Palestinians in the long term.
The United States, for its part, will have to put its normalisation mediation plans on hold for now. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was expected in Israel and Saudi Arabia later this month to discuss normalisation talks, but his plans have changed and now include a visit to Jordan.
Given the current public mood in the Arab world after the Gaza attack, it would be too complicated to advance talks on a Saudi-Israeli deal. Most probably, these talks will be put on the shelf by the Saudis in the short term but not necessarily fully cancelled.
These developments work in Iran’s favour. With the progress of Arab-Israeli normalisation halted, Tehran can now pressure the US into re-entering a nuclear deal of some kind that would take some of the sanctions pressure off the Iranian economy.
Whatever mediation happens between Israel and Hamas eventually, it is unlikely to address the root causes of the conflict. There does not seem to be any political will within Israel to address issues like the imprisonment of Palestinians, the freezing of Palestinian funds, the dire socioeconomic conditions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, or the continuing settlement expansion. This means the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will continue to fester and produce cycles of violence."
A number of factors led to Hamas’s operation in southern Israel.
www.aljazeera.com
Fairuz - Zahrat Al-Mada'en
Most splendid of cities
For you, city of prayer, I pray.
For you, most splendid of dwellings,
flower among cities,
Jerusalem, city of prayer, I pray.
Our eyes turn towards you every day,
Taking in the colonnades of the places of prayer,
Embracing the old churches,
And wiping grief from the mosques.
[We recall] the Night of Ascension,
the path of those who went up to heaven,
And our eyes turn towards you every day, and I pray.
The infant is in the grotto and his mother is Mary — two faces are crying,
for those who have been evicted,
for children without a home,
for those who tried to defend the city and were killed in their doorways,
for peace has been martyred in the land of peace!
And justice fell in the doorways.
When Jerusalem fell,
Love drew itself back into the hearts of the world and war established itself.
The infant is in the grotto and his mother is Mary — two faces are crying and I pray.
Irrepressible anger is coming and I am all faith!
Irrepressible anger is coming and I shall move beyond grief.
Anger is coming from all directions, it is coming on a fearsome steed,
And our anger is as profuse as the face of God!
The gate of our city will not be locked – for I am on my way to pray.
I shall hammer on the gates and I shall open those gates.
And you, River Jordan, will bathe my face in your holy water.
And you, River Jordan, will erase all the footprints of the barbarians.
Anger is coming from all directions, it is coming on a fearsome steed,
And it will defeat those who wield power!
The Temple Mount is ours. Jerusalem is ours.
With our own hands we shall restore the splendour of Jerusalem,
With our own hands peace is coming to Jerusalem
thehill.com
