The protein production disruption for those interested and who might live in the rural areas expected to be affected by 2030...
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This rapid improvement is in stark contrast to the industrial livestock production model, which has all but reached its limits in terms of scale, reach, and efficiency. As the most inefficient and economically vulnerable part of this system, cow products will be the first to feel the full force of modern food’s disruptive power. Modern alternatives will be up to 100 times more land efficient, 10-25 times more feedstock efficient, 20 times more time efficient, and 10 times more water efficient.1,2 They will also produce an order of magnitude less waste.
Modern foods have already started disrupting the ground meat market, but once cost parity is reached, we believe in 2021-23, adoption will tip and accelerate exponentially. The disruption will play out in a number of ways and does not rely solely on the direct, one-for-one substitution of end products.
Summary of Key Findings
» By 2030, demand for cow products will have fallen by 70%. Before we reach
this point, the U.S. cattle industry will be effectively bankrupt. By 2035, demand
for cow products will have shrunk by 80% to 90%. Other livestock markets such
as chicken, pig, and fish will follow a similar trajectory. There will be enormous
destruction of value for those involved in rearing animals and processing them,
and for all the industries that support and supply the sector (fertilizers, machinery,
veterinary services, and more). We estimate this will total more than $100bn. At
the same time, there will be huge opportunities for the producers of modern foods
and materials.
» Production volumes of the U.S. beef and dairy industries and their suppliers will
decline by more than 50% by 2030, and by nearly 90% by 2035. In our central
case, by 2030 the market by volume for ground beef will have shrunk by 70%, the
steak market by 30%, and the dairy market by almost 90%. The market by volume
for other cow products such as leather and collagen is likely to have declined by
more than 90%. Crop farming volumes, such as soy, corn, and alfalfa, will fall by
more than 50%.
» The current industrialized, animal-agriculture system will be replaced with a
Foodas-Software model, where foods are engineered by scientists at a molecular level
and uploaded to databases that can be accessed by food designers anywhere
in the world. This will result in a far more distributed, localized food-production
system that is more stable and resilient than the one it replaces. The new
production system will be shielded from volume and price volatility due to the
vagaries of seasonality, weather, drought, disease and other natural, economic,
and political factors. Geography will no longer offer any competitive advantage.
We will move from a centralized system dependent on scarce resources to a
distributed system based on abundant resources.
» By 2035, about 60% of the land currently being used for livestock and feed
production will be freed for other uses. This represents one-quarter of the
continental U.S. – almost as much land as was acquired during the Louisiana
Purchase of 1803. The opportunity to reimagine the American landscape by
repurposing this land is wholly unprecedented.
» Modern foods will be cheaper and superior to animal-derived foods. The cost
of modern food products will be half that of animal products and they will
be superior in every functional attribute – more nutritious, tastier, and more
convenient with much greater variety. Nutritional benefits could have a profound
impact on health, both in a reduction in foodborne illness and in conditions
such as heart disease, obesity, cancer, and diabetes that are estimated to cost
the U.S. $1.7 trillion every year.
» Wider economic benefits will accrue from the reduction in the cost of food in the
form of increased disposable incomes and from the wealth, jobs, and taxes that
come from leading the way in modern food technologies.
» Environmental benefits will be profound, with net greenhouse gas emissions
from the sector falling by 45% by 2030. Other issues such as international
deforestation, species extinction, water scarcity, and aquatic pollution from animal
waste, hormones, and antibiotics will be ameliorated as well. By 2035, lands
previously used to produce animal foods in the U.S. could become a major
carbon sink.
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