The Long March to 11/24

printer

Well-Known Member


Trump claims credit for record-high stock market under Biden
Former President Trump, who has predicted economic doom if he’s not elected back to the White House, said Monday he should get credit for the stock market’s recent record highs, more than three years after he left office.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed that polls that show him ahead of President Biden in a hypothetical rematch in November are driving the optimistic outlook on Wall Street.

“THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP,” Trump wrote in an all-caps missive on Truth Social.

Biden’s campaign team mocked the post, describing it as Trump “desperately trying to take credit for the stock market hitting record highs under President Biden.”

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ analysis of polls shows Biden and the GOP front-runner, Trump, in a close race in a general election match-up, with Trump ahead by an average of 2.2 percentage points.

Trump repeatedly has predicted the stock market would crash if he doesn’t win the presidential election — most recently ahead of this month’s Iowa caucuses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index set record highs over the past week.

“I think the economy is horrible, except the stock market is going up, and I think the stock market is going up because I’m leading Biden in all of the polls,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall event in Iowa on Jan. 10. “I think there will be a crash if I don’t win.”

Trump made a similar prediction before losing the 2020 election.

“If Biden wins, you’re gonna have a stock market collapse, the likes of which you’ve never had,” he said during a a campaign rally that year.

The Biden camp dug up that clip and reposted it online last week, quipping, “Good one, Donald.”
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member


Trump claims credit for record-high stock market under Biden
Former President Trump, who has predicted economic doom if he’s not elected back to the White House, said Monday he should get credit for the stock market’s recent record highs, more than three years after he left office.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed that polls that show him ahead of President Biden in a hypothetical rematch in November are driving the optimistic outlook on Wall Street.

“THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP,” Trump wrote in an all-caps missive on Truth Social.

Biden’s campaign team mocked the post, describing it as Trump “desperately trying to take credit for the stock market hitting record highs under President Biden.”

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ analysis of polls shows Biden and the GOP front-runner, Trump, in a close race in a general election match-up, with Trump ahead by an average of 2.2 percentage points.

Trump repeatedly has predicted the stock market would crash if he doesn’t win the presidential election — most recently ahead of this month’s Iowa caucuses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index set record highs over the past week.

“I think the economy is horrible, except the stock market is going up, and I think the stock market is going up because I’m leading Biden in all of the polls,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall event in Iowa on Jan. 10. “I think there will be a crash if I don’t win.”

Trump made a similar prediction before losing the 2020 election.

“If Biden wins, you’re gonna have a stock market collapse, the likes of which you’ve never had,” he said during a a campaign rally that year.

The Biden camp dug up that clip and reposted it online last week, quipping, “Good one, Donald.”
Why not, the prevailing media narrative is that Biden's economy isn't doing that well, but the data clearly says otherwise in a very big way. A majority of the public think Trump is better for the economy than Biden and republicans are more fiscally responsible, another thing that flies in the face of the evidence.

If he lies to the base, they will either believe him or won't care and half of the independents will either believe him or be confused about it. Foxnews won't come right out and call him a liar at the top of every hour and plenty of republicans will be forced to mouth yet another absurd lie.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Biden team thanks Trump for ‘lifting up’ strong economic news
President Biden’s reelection campaign thanked former President Trump on Monday for “lifting up” strong news on the economy, after Trump claimed credit for the record-high stock market.

Ammar Moussa, spokesman for Biden’s campaign, criticized Trump’s comments from earlier on Monday and reminded him that Biden is in the White House, in a statement first shared with The Hill.

“Thank you Donald for lifting up today’s strong economic news, but on this planet, Joe Biden is the president, and is the one whose policies are helping achieve historic GDP growth, a stronger than ever stock market, and real job creation after Trump tanked our economy,” Moussa said.

Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that he should get credit for the recent record highs of the stock market because of polls that show him ahead of Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. He argued that polling is driving an optimistic outlook on Wall Street and that “investors are projecting” he wins in November and “that will drive the market up.”

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index set record highs over the past week.

White House spokesman Andrew Bates also bashed Trump’s comments, touting that the economy under Biden was strong in 2023 and that Biden has also successfully taken steps to rebuild infrastructure and lower drug prices.

“While we do not comment on the 2024 election, we welcome the wide range of ideologically diverse voices who are increasingly conceding that President Biden is building an economy that actually delivers for hardworking families — not just billionaires or executives at multinational corporations,” Bates told The Hill.

Biden’s campaign also shared on X, formerly Twitter, a video of Trump claiming Biden winning in 2020 will collapse the stock market and shared a Trump post that said, “This is the Trump stock market.”

Trump has previously said he hopes the stock market crashes in the next year, under Biden, arguing that he doesn’t want to be like President Hoover if elected to another term.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Biden team thanks Trump for ‘lifting up’ strong economic news
President Biden’s reelection campaign thanked former President Trump on Monday for “lifting up” strong news on the economy, after Trump claimed credit for the record-high stock market.

Ammar Moussa, spokesman for Biden’s campaign, criticized Trump’s comments from earlier on Monday and reminded him that Biden is in the White House, in a statement first shared with The Hill.

“Thank you Donald for lifting up today’s strong economic news, but on this planet, Joe Biden is the president, and is the one whose policies are helping achieve historic GDP growth, a stronger than ever stock market, and real job creation after Trump tanked our economy,” Moussa said.

Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that he should get credit for the recent record highs of the stock market because of polls that show him ahead of Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. He argued that polling is driving an optimistic outlook on Wall Street and that “investors are projecting” he wins in November and “that will drive the market up.”

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index set record highs over the past week.

White House spokesman Andrew Bates also bashed Trump’s comments, touting that the economy under Biden was strong in 2023 and that Biden has also successfully taken steps to rebuild infrastructure and lower drug prices.

“While we do not comment on the 2024 election, we welcome the wide range of ideologically diverse voices who are increasingly conceding that President Biden is building an economy that actually delivers for hardworking families — not just billionaires or executives at multinational corporations,” Bates told The Hill.

Biden’s campaign also shared on X, formerly Twitter, a video of Trump claiming Biden winning in 2020 will collapse the stock market and shared a Trump post that said, “This is the Trump stock market.”

Trump has previously said he hopes the stock market crashes in the next year, under Biden, arguing that he doesn’t want to be like President Hoover if elected to another term.
A recent survey of people's "personal economy" and prospects showed a large majority had positive views and it clashed with some national polling on the economy. The belief somehow still persists that the GOP are more fiscally responsible and better for the economy, in spite of the data showing repeated failure and deficits historically.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Jan 30, 2024
Steve Rattner: Economy performing more strongly than expected

Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Rattner discusses why the economy is performing more strongly than many expected.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
The media are full of contradictory polling data right now and are desperate to say something that draws attention. It's not that they are wrong when they report a percentage increase in young and people of color who support Trump or Republicans, it's just that the numbers are insignificant. Also true that the polls contradict depending on the question asked and especially how the polls are conducted. The alarming headline that I've seen on this subject is something like "growing numbers of young people say they can't vote for Biden". It's probably true, too. But that in no way means they will vote for Trump. Their complaint with Democrats is that we are not pursuing policies that are far enough to the left. We'll see how many will hew to that oath when the election day comes around. At this time, I view poll numbers as statements of public sentiment and not anything that is predictive of results in November.

It's just that the news cycle is all about Trump and Republicans right now. They aren't doing anything to attract new voters, they are simply entrenching their base, which is not insignificant but, as I said is mostly old people and mostly white. They do not account for a majority in this country but they are probably the largest and most energized voting bloc in this country at the moment.

This article is an example of what you are referring to when you mention polls that claim young people are switching to Trump:


I won't argue that they are factually reporting what the poll said. It's nothing to be complacent about and I doubt Biden's campaign is ignoring it. And yet, just two months after that poll, comes this from the same outlet:


So, take the information for what it's worth, which is, not much. I'm going more by election polls, which are the only ones that matter and Republicans have lost lost ground or woefully underperformed in the last three national elections. The youth of this nation do not like Trump, according to exit polls from those elections. We are a fickle people but not that fickle.
I find myself being slightly displeased with this reply. In multiple ways. But far worse, it doesn't make me any less concerned. You sound like me 6 months ago, and boy, was I wrong. Death throes of dying conservatives I told myself more than once. Counting on younger generations to be any wiser, progressive even, will end with social media and at some point progressive becomes the new conservative. Saving the climate, world peace, equal rights for all, no discrimination, bare bottom tanning, cannabis smoking idealists. We are basically hippies.

It's not fickle people, but perhaps a cycle. While nothing in your reply sounds convincing, you actually made it worse, I'll repeat what I said: "I hope that's true". Only reason I 'hope'... we're kinda starting to count on things not working out well if he gets to run.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I find myself being slightly displeased with this reply. In multiple ways. But far worse, it doesn't make me any less concerned. You sound like me 6 months ago, and boy, was I wrong. Death throes of dying conservatives I told myself more than once. Counting on younger generations to be any wiser, progressive even, will end with social media and at some point progressive becomes the new conservative. Saving the climate, world peace, equal rights for all, no discrimination, bare bottom tanning, cannabis smoking idealists. We are basically hippies.

It's not fickle people, but perhaps a cycle. While nothing in your reply sounds convincing, you actually made it worse, I'll repeat what I said: "I hope that's true". Only reason I 'hope'... we're kind starting to count on things not working out well if he gets to run.
Trump and his troubles should divide the GOP, at least for this election cycle, by 2029, everything will have been forgotten, the fact that they really are fascists and by then the base will vomit up some real characters. The press will try to normalize them like Trump who should be long gone and, in a cell, a bad memory, at least for those without the attention span of a gnat.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Many explanations are proposed for the continued rise of Donald Trump, and the steadfastness of his support, even as the outrages and criminal charges pile up. Some of these explanations are powerful. But there is one I have seen mentioned nowhere, which could, I believe, be the most important: Trump is king of the extrinsics.

Some psychologists believe our values tend to cluster around certain poles, described as “intrinsic” and “extrinsic”. People with a strong set of intrinsic values are inclined towards empathy, intimacy and self-acceptance. They tend to be open to challenge and change, interested in universal rights and equality, and protective of other people and the living world.

People at the extrinsic end of the spectrum are more attracted to prestige, status, image, fame, power and wealth. They are strongly motivated by the prospect of individual reward and praise. They are more likely to objectify and exploit other people, to behave rudely and aggressively and to dismiss social and environmental impacts. They have little interest in cooperation or community. People with a strong set of extrinsic values are more likely to suffer from frustration, dissatisfaction, stress, anxiety, anger and compulsive behaviour.

Trump exemplifies extrinsic values. From the tower bearing his name in gold letters to his gross overstatements of his wealth; from his endless ranting about “winners” and “losers” to his reported habit of cheating at golf; from his extreme objectification of women, including his own daughter, to his obsession with the size of his hands; from his rejection of public service, human rights and environmental protection to his extreme dissatisfaction and fury, undiminished even when he was president of the United States, Trump, perhaps more than any other public figure in recent history, is a walking, talking monument to extrinsic values.

We are not born with our values. They are shaped by the cues and responses we receive from other people and the prevailing mores of our society. They are also moulded by the political environment we inhabit. If people live under a cruel and grasping political system, they tend to normalise and internalise it, absorbing its dominant claims and translating them into extrinsic values. This, in turn, permits an even crueller and more grasping political system to develop.

If, by contrast, people live in a country in which no one becomes destitute, in which social norms are characterised by kindness, empathy, community and freedom from want and fear, their values are likely to shift towards the intrinsic end. This process is known as policy feedback, or the “values ratchet”. The values ratchet operates at the societal and the individual level: a strong set of extrinsic values often develops as a result of insecurity and unfulfilled needs. These extrinsic values then generate further insecurity and unfulfilled needs.

Ever since Ronald Reagan came to power, on a platform that ensured society became sharply divided into “winners” and “losers”, and ever more people, lacking public provision, were allowed to fall through the cracks, US politics has become fertile soil for extrinsic values. As Democratic presidents, following Reagan, embraced most of the principles of neoliberalism, the ratchet was scarcely reversed. The appeal to extrinsic values by the Democrats, Labour and other once-progressive parties is always self-defeating. Research shows that the further towards the extrinsic end of the spectrum people travel, the more likely they are to vote for a rightwing party.

But the shift goes deeper than politics. For well over a century, the US, more than most nations, has worshipped extrinsic values: the American dream is a dream of acquiring wealth, spending it conspicuously and escaping the constraints of other people’s needs and demands. It is accompanied, in politics and in popular culture, by toxic myths about failure and success: wealth is the goal, regardless of how it is acquired. The ubiquity of advertising, the commercialisation of society and the rise of consumerism, alongside the media’s obsession with fame and fashion, reinforce this story. The marketing of insecurity, especially about physical appearance, and the manufacture of unfulfilled wants, dig holes in our psyches that we might try to fill with money, fame or power. For decades, the dominant cultural themes in the US – and in many other nations – have functioned as an almost perfect incubator of extrinsic values.

A classic sign of this shift is the individuation of blame. On both sides of the Atlantic, it now takes extreme forms. Under the criminal justice bill now passing through parliament, people caught rough sleeping can be imprisoned or fined up to £2,500 if they are deemed to constitute a “nuisance” or cause “damage”. According to article 61 of the bill, “damage” includes smelling bad. It’s hard to know where to begin with this. If someone had £2,500 to spare, they wouldn’t be on the streets. The government is proposing to provide prison cells for rough sleepers, but not homes. Perhaps most importantly, people are being blamed and criminalised for their own destitution, which in many cases will have been caused by government policy.

We talk about society’s rightward journey. We talk about polarisation and division. We talk about isolation and the mental health crisis. But what underlies these trends is a shift in values. This is the cause of many of our dysfunctions; the rest are symptoms.

When a society valorises status, money, power and dominance, it is bound to generate frustration. It is mathematically impossible for everyone to be number one. The more the economic elites grab, the more everyone else must lose. Someone must be blamed for the ensuing disappointment. In a culture that worships winners, it can’t be them. It must be those evil people pursuing a kinder world, in which wealth is distributed, no one is forgotten and communities and the living planet are protected. Those who have developed a strong set of extrinsic values will vote for the person who represents them, the person who has what they want. Trump. And where the US goes, the rest of us follow.

Trump might well win again – God help us if he does. If so, his victory will be due not only to the racial resentment of ageing white men, or to his weaponisation of culture wars or to algorithms and echo chambers, important as these factors are. It will also be the result of values embedded so deeply that we forget they are there.
 

Bagginski

Well-Known Member
People “get more conservative” as they get older because they come to realize how fragile are the gains made during their lives; not wanting to destroy what you’ve spent your life on is wholly human - and is *literally* conservative at its most true…but it has nothing to do with the fear, anger, and fake ‘tribal pride’ that passes for normal among our modern political conservatives

The shift in the dynamic from creative to preservative is just the ‘color’ of older/wiser.

POLITICAL conservatism OTOH is driven by biology; specifically, sex hormones (bear w/ me)

As we age, sex hormones are harder to get & keep; women’s bodies produce less estrogen, men’s bodies produce less testosterone. These changes have obvious physical effects, but the more profound changes are emotional - but that’s still downstream a bit. Reduced estrogen in women translates directly into mood & behavior, & many women experience the de-facto testosterone BOOST as liberating, empowering, augmenting & resilient. Men have it somewhat worse in that declining testosterone production is made severe by conversion of remaining test to estrogen.

Yes, you read that right. Not only does test production fall off a cliff in our 40s (& off another cliff in our 60s), but along with it, our bodies convert free testosterone into estrogen. Our balance - our emotional center of gravity - shifts. Now, think about emotions, states of mind & perception & behavior we associate with males & females, being DRIVEN by the constantly shifting balance between the two prime steroids.

There aren’t any tricks here, this is basic physiology…but boy howdy, it influences behavior. In a nutshell, women tend to become more assertive, less ‘flexible’, more determined, more self-directed (my grandmother was a classic example); men, to the contrary, begin to get lost in their feelings, begin worrying about the future, start to wonder what’s happening to them.

These changes can make men feel afraid of changes, of things being different, because they have no idea how to navigate that soup. After a lifetime of testoterone-fueled confidence and exuberance, they seriously wonder what’s going on. The habits of a lifetime point them OUTSIDE THEMSELVES for causes, and that uncertainty, that new balance inclines them to focus on “problems ‘out there’” as the sources of their fears.

Fear is a tricky state for men to occupy because they’ve been proving they’re not afraid all their lives; every man learns NOT to display fear ‘cause it attracts predators (“like YOU used to be, old-timer!”). The most common reaction to this quandary is ANGER, as in lashing out at the things/people/events that seem to stimulate those bad feelings. ANY of us can write the rest of that story for ourselves, & other men will nod in understanding

So. Let’s take Mr Magoo here: how does his personal development go from this point? He’s no longer master of his particular soup-mix (physiologically), he’s no history of reflection or self-examination except in specific male-role kinda ways, he doesn’t feel safe talking about what’s going on in him because he’s afraid of how others would react. Most commonly, he’ll find things to do that distract him, that take his focus off HIMSELF, that allow him the comfort of distance from his afflictions: hobbies, sports, current events, religion, family

before you know it, you have a bunch of guys, all in more or less the same boat, all going through roughly the same transitions, all not knowing how, all trying to not shame themselves, all avoiding anything that twinges their uncertainties - all looking for things to talk about, others to hold accountable, honorable recipients of their blame. They gripe about traffic, about women, about their families, about the news.

It’s around here where we go off the rails. Before Trump & MAGA & general free-floating insanity, we’d’ve complained about our bosses, about society, about our families, our businesses, our churches. Honest curmudgeonly crankiness, w/ more and/or less grace here & there. Your ‘native conservative’.

MAGA & the overthrow have weaponized all that. The fear AND the rage, the uncertainty AND the iron-headed conviction, the *need* to act, the righteousness of the cause - the details lost in a blind fog of rage @ the unlimited injustices AGAINST *YOU*, MISTER!!

“No one EVER treated so unfairly. It’s because I’m standing up for you…I’m doing this FOR YOU”

Really, how can you *NOT* love Big Brother, eh?
HE’S DOING IT FOR *YOU*
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
I find myself being slightly displeased with this reply. In multiple ways. But far worse, it doesn't make me any less concerned. You sound like me 6 months ago, and boy, was I wrong. Death throes of dying conservatives I told myself more than once. Counting on younger generations to be any wiser, progressive even, will end with social media and at some point progressive becomes the new conservative. Saving the climate, world peace, equal rights for all, no discrimination, bare bottom tanning, cannabis smoking idealists. We are basically hippies.

It's not fickle people, but perhaps a cycle. While nothing in your reply sounds convincing, you actually made it worse, I'll repeat what I said: "I hope that's true". Only reason I 'hope'... we're kinda starting to count on things not working out well if he gets to run.
Maybe I'm misinformed about the political shift going on right now in Europe, where unions have an official role in setting wages in their industries, government provided healthcare is the norm and gun ownership is well regulated. Near as I can tell, today's US Republicans, with their support for fascism, thirst for cutting access to the ballot box for those who would disagree with them and their agreement with their leader's attempt to overthrow the government, near as I can tell, they are far, far to the right of what in Europe calls "right". They make a European righty seem leftist to somebody in the US.

So, maybe my comfort zone with the bare knuckle election we are having seems to be too passive to you. Could it be that I'm simply less affected by it because it's been going on for almost a decade now? I'm concerned but not alarmed. I see the upcoming election as a close one that will be hard fought and agree that there are conflicting signals about who might prevail coming from polling sources that were once reliable. And yet, the Biden campaign hasn't even begun its campaign. They have amassed a huge pile of campaign funds. Much more than Trump's campaign has, most of which is being frittered away paying Trump's legal bills. Democrats haven't been in the press very much because we aren't holding a primary of any consequence. In the absence of activity from Biden's campaign, all we really have to look at are recent election results. There, the signal is strong and good. Good for Democrats, bad for Republicans, that is. At every poll that matters recently, Democrats have been spanking their Republican rivals. As far as the upcoming election, I'd much rather have the political problems that Joe Biden's campaign are facing compared to the ones Donald Trump's campaign is.

That said, as far as Biden v Republican candidate is concerned the only poll that matters will held in November and we have a long way to go before then.
 
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Fogdog

Well-Known Member
People “get more conservative” as they get older because they come to realize how fragile are the gains made during their lives; not wanting to destroy what you’ve spent your life on is wholly human - and is *literally* conservative at its most true…but it has nothing to do with the fear, anger, and fake ‘tribal pride’ that passes for normal among our modern political conservatives

The shift in the dynamic from creative to preservative is just the ‘color’ of older/wiser.

POLITICAL conservatism OTOH is driven by biology; specifically, sex hormones (bear w/ me)

As we age, sex hormones are harder to get & keep; women’s bodies produce less estrogen, men’s bodies produce less testosterone. These changes have obvious physical effects, but the more profound changes are emotional - but that’s still downstream a bit. Reduced estrogen in women translates directly into mood & behavior, & many women experience the de-facto testosterone BOOST as liberating, empowering, augmenting & resilient. Men have it somewhat worse in that declining testosterone production is made severe by conversion of remaining test to estrogen.

Yes, you read that right. Not only does test production fall off a cliff in our 40s (& off another cliff in our 60s), but along with it, our bodies convert free testosterone into estrogen. Our balance - our emotional center of gravity - shifts. Now, think about emotions, states of mind & perception & behavior we associate with males & females, being DRIVEN by the constantly shifting balance between the two prime steroids.

There aren’t any tricks here, this is basic physiology…but boy howdy, it influences behavior. In a nutshell, women tend to become more assertive, less ‘flexible’, more determined, more self-directed (my grandmother was a classic example); men, to the contrary, begin to get lost in their feelings, begin worrying about the future, start to wonder what’s happening to them.

These changes can make men feel afraid of changes, of things being different, because they have no idea how to navigate that soup. After a lifetime of testoterone-fueled confidence and exuberance, they seriously wonder what’s going on. The habits of a lifetime point them OUTSIDE THEMSELVES for causes, and that uncertainty, that new balance inclines them to focus on “problems ‘out there’” as the sources of their fears.

Fear is a tricky state for men to occupy because they’ve been proving they’re not afraid all their lives; every man learns NOT to display fear ‘cause it attracts predators (“like YOU used to be, old-timer!”). The most common reaction to this quandary is ANGER, as in lashing out at the things/people/events that seem to stimulate those bad feelings. ANY of us can write the rest of that story for ourselves, & other men will nod in understanding

So. Let’s take Mr Magoo here: how does his personal development go from this point? He’s no longer master of his particular soup-mix (physiologically), he’s no history of reflection or self-examination except in specific male-role kinda ways, he doesn’t feel safe talking about what’s going on in him because he’s afraid of how others would react. Most commonly, he’ll find things to do that distract him, that take his focus off HIMSELF, that allow him the comfort of distance from his afflictions: hobbies, sports, current events, religion, family

before you know it, you have a bunch of guys, all in more or less the same boat, all going through roughly the same transitions, all not knowing how, all trying to not shame themselves, all avoiding anything that twinges their uncertainties - all looking for things to talk about, others to hold accountable, honorable recipients of their blame. They gripe about traffic, about women, about their families, about the news.

It’s around here where we go off the rails. Before Trump & MAGA & general free-floating insanity, we’d’ve complained about our bosses, about society, about our families, our businesses, our churches. Honest curmudgeonly crankiness, w/ more and/or less grace here & there. Your ‘native conservative’.

MAGA & the overthrow have weaponized all that. The fear AND the rage, the uncertainty AND the iron-headed conviction, the *need* to act, the righteousness of the cause - the details lost in a blind fog of rage @ the unlimited injustices AGAINST *YOU*, MISTER!!

“No one EVER treated so unfairly. It’s because I’m standing up for you…I’m doing this FOR YOU”

Really, how can you *NOT* love Big Brother, eh?
HE’S DOING IT FOR *YOU*
Not disagreeing with your thesis in its conclusion but perhaps the degree to which we change as we age is overstated.

For myself and from what I've read about you, I don't think either of us have changed much over time in the way we view politics. Maybe we've mellowed but I don't think we've changed. Not saying that proves anything but our personal history does not align with the idea that people just naturally become more conservative and therefore change politically from Democrat to Republican. It didn't happen with my parents or brothers either.

There isn't a lot of good research available from a simple google search. I did come across this abstract:

Do People Really Become More Conservative as They Age?


"Folk wisdom has long held that people become more politically conservative as they grow older, although several empirical studies suggest political attitudes are stable across time. Using data from the Michigan Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study, we analyze attitudinal change over a major portion of the adult life span. We document changes in party identification, self-reported ideology, and selected issue positions over this time period and place these changes in context by comparing them with contemporaneous national averages. Consistent with previous research but contrary to folk wisdom, our results indicate that political attitudes are remarkably stable over the long term. In contrast to previous research, however, we also find support for folk wisdom: on those occasions when political attitudes do shift across the life span, liberals are more likely to become conservatives than conservatives are to become liberals, suggesting that folk wisdom has some empirical basis even as it overstates the degree of change."
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
There are two phenomena that are affecting society and politics that have arisen with the right and ethnic nationalism over the last couple of decades. We went from a curated hierarchical information system to a networked system with social media and where any fool with a cellphone had a studio. Radicals can meet up online and coalesce around shitty ideas and people, gain a social support network online and begin a self-reinforcing spiral down the rat hole. They provide the alternative social support network that helps them resist the entreaties of friends and families as they are sucked into information bubbles.

The other thing that is happening is mass global migration, especially to desirable countries where the good life they see on TV and the internet can be had. Once minorities reach a certain level in society and the dominate group perceives a threat to its social statues, culture or language, the reactionary forces come into play amplified and organized by the internet. Add to that a resistance of newcomers to assimilate culturally because jet travel and the internet make it possible to maintain cultural, linguistic and family contacts back home.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
It would be nice to beat him at the polls after criminal conviction, but he really should be disqualified and is unfit for office. It is not worth the risk and not worth shaking the confidence of allies for months, not worth the circus this summer and fall.


Trump stands to lose majorities of swing state voters if found guilty: poll
Majorities of voters in seven key swing states would be unwilling to vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime or sentenced to prison in one of the four cases against him, according to new Bloomberg/Morning Consult polling.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Not disagreeing with your thesis in its conclusion but perhaps the degree to which we change as we age is overstated.

For myself and from what I've read about you, I don't think either of us have changed much over time in the way we view politics. Maybe we've mellowed but I don't think we've changed. Not saying that proves anything but our personal history does not align with the idea that people just naturally become more conservative and therefore change politically from Democrat to Republican. It didn't happen with my parents or brothers either.

There isn't a lot of good research available from a simple google search. I did come across this abstract:

Do People Really Become More Conservative as They Age?


"Folk wisdom has long held that people become more politically conservative as they grow older, although several empirical studies suggest political attitudes are stable across time. Using data from the Michigan Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study, we analyze attitudinal change over a major portion of the adult life span. We document changes in party identification, self-reported ideology, and selected issue positions over this time period and place these changes in context by comparing them with contemporaneous national averages. Consistent with previous research but contrary to folk wisdom, our results indicate that political attitudes are remarkably stable over the long term. In contrast to previous research, however, we also find support for folk wisdom: on those occasions when political attitudes do shift across the life span, liberals are more likely to become conservatives than conservatives are to become liberals, suggesting that folk wisdom has some empirical basis even as it overstates the degree of change."
Speaking for myself, I appear to have bucked the trend. I do not think my leftward journey is over yet, and I just canoed over testosterone cliff #2.

I seem to be forming a peace with my reduced male drives. Why, if anyone impugns my manhood, I’ll belt them a smart one with my purse!
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
If Trump is disqualified, they might pick a better candidate who would do well with independents, but there is Trump and he will have a very sore asshole if he is not the nominee, disqualified or not, so a replacement for him might not work out, if he captures 20 or 30% of the republican vote in spoiled ballots with a write in campaign with his own endorsed candidates. If he doesn't fuck up, he should be running around until election day loose on appeal, but under Chutkan's thumb.

 
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