The renewable energy changes and policy

Ozumoz66

Well-Known Member
yeah i can see cost being the decision maker there.....i had a 76 short bed chevy pickup one time, i was rebuilding it at a friends of the families place...told the man i was finally time for the motor, the guy told me to look out back and pick a 350 i can rebuild, i said ok.....got the motor into the shop a low and behold the one i picked wasn't a 350, it was a 383 and i didn't tell anyone......i'm a stinker....

btw those kits for the Vw's are about 20g to do.....here:
Good score on the 383. Thnx for the link.

Wish I still have my '72 Chev fleet side w/350 2brl. Got a rust free box & cab for it out of Oklahoma and had it painted British racing green. Sold it for $3500 in 2000 - regret it ever since.

Had a '76 super beetle with a fuel injected 1600cc engine, velour seat, air shocks - so mags wouldn't scrub, and 400watt amp to drive the 10" subs and 6x9s. Sold it when we purchased our first home - needed fridge, stove, washer and dryer. Fond memories.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member

The Chinese Offensive: "A Bloodbath"

“The reason for the overproduction: Almost all providers in China have state investors, either as joint venture partners or as major shareholders. It is in their interest to keep the factories running, even if there are no domestic customers for the vehicles. The government in Beijing wants to avoid unemployment and achieve the growth target of around 5 percent at all costs. This is another reason why BYD and the other Chinese cars are pushing onto the global markets – and causing a price war that some car company executives have described as a "bloodbath."

The fact that German manufacturers are giving them plenty of space is providing even more of a boost. BYD even ousted Volkswagen as a sponsor for the marketing of the 2024 European Football Championship in Germany.

“In China, BYD is already selling what German manufacturers can't currently offer: an affordable mass model at a competitive price of less than 10,000 euros. The BYD Seagull will soon be available in Germany. The price tag is likely to be higher than it is in China. But even at 20,000 euros, the Chinese would still be undercutting all Western manufacturers.


If that’s not bad enough, their profit margins are higher for BYD. While unfortunately often inevitable, I try to avoid buying anything made in China. Feels any effort is useless when the west is going to send billions more by buying their EVs.

It's very likely Tesla would have done extremely well in Europe if it had focused on smaller affordable models instead of the silly truck.

Although... Elon being Elon isn't helping either.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
The German car manufacturers oppose raising import taxes on Chinese EVs, worried that will cause a trade war. At first surprising but it makes sense given the export market, especially to China, is much larger. Mercedes and BMW are pretty popular among the richer Chinese.


They also seem to see it for what it is, populism at EU level, not something based on research and reason regarding what's good for Germany on a national level. Never liked unelected Ursula. Admittedly partly because everything about her screams 'christian democrats', conservatives that held this part of Europe back on many topics even those less batshit Christians consider too progressives, but mostly because she's acting like she's POTEU, while she's merely president of the European Commission. No such thing as president of the EU. She'll probably get the position for another 5 years though.

Obviously could be worse with the current political climate, but the actual climate is not better off given the fact it's often the christian democrats (generally center/center-right conservatives) who choose to appease far-right and farmers on delaying or reducing climate measures. Especially in Germany. Which actually seems to work... Merkel like Ursula was also CDU. When Merkel left they lost, barely, and Scholz got to form a broader coalation, including the Greens. AfD (far-right) was rising, but appears to be losing gains in the poll, while CDU is large again, over 31% far ahead of others.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
Teslas are jam-packed with Chinese content. We are not winning a massive trade war.
Not winning and seemingly hardly even putting up a fight.

A new Tesla CEO, an ethics commission, a smaller/medium-size model, proper dealerships with physical locations, and europeans would be all over Tesla again. I think GM discontuining the Chevy Spark was a huge mistake too.

I bought several news cars, well, paid by then employer, and the normal way to go about that was to go to the dealers. Check out the models in a showroom, touch the steering wheel, test the seats, etc. Tesla you had to buy online. They have some ‘shops’ now. China (I think it’s fair to say China instead of Chinese carmakers) takes a different approach, sold online, use our ports for storage:


The ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge in Belgium are reportedly flooded with EVs from China, however, the port told Euronews that it is not only Chinese vehicles which are involved. But they did not disclose any other exporter countries contributing to the problem.

However, Le Monde reported that at Calloo, near Antwerp, and Zeebrugge, the huge parking lots to accommodate 130,000 freshly shipped vehicles, are cramped now with Chinese models, including MG, BYD, Nio, XPeng, Lynk & Co, Omoda, Hongqi, among others.


(Peugeots in the pic so French cars too but that’s just a fraction).

Most sold EV in NL so far in 2024 is the Volvo EX30, second spot Tesla Y. In Germany VW and Tesla are neck and neck for the nr 1 spot. First half of 2023 Tesla sold more EVs to Germans than the major German car makers did combined. This year is looking different, especially BYD is doing well, stole Tesla’s position as most sold EV worldwide.

The building below is since a few days a ’showroom’ from Nio, Chinese EV. In the center of Amsterdam. Building commisioned by a NY insurance company in 1891, monumental status. Was tallest privately owned building at the time. Bought clothes there a few times, was only Abercrombie and Fitch location in NL. One of the most expensive places to rent in the city and because of its monument status very expensive to change the interior.

NIO reported ~750million(USD!) losses in Q4 2023… which is no problem cause China hands out billions in subsidies to flood the global market.

AFC9548A-FD33-4484-B393-C0C06E5CCE07.jpeg4AE89FE1-4065-4B67-8BC5-7BA5CA4F9848.jpeg

Another one recently opened one up down the street. It has 1 car and no soul…


Meanwhile China, in addition to the forced labor and unfair business practices, supports Russia’s war that is costing us billions as well. It’s stupid. Hard to impossible to avoid ‘made in China’ entirely but I’d be really embarrassed driving a Chinese EV. Trump’s china tarrifs were part of America First, but really, if anything, the aim should be China last…

Doesn’t make up for all the bad ideas, but this sure sounds good:

we estimate this tariff increase would reduce imports from China by about 85 percent
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c
Screen Shot 2024-05-30 at 9.21.47 AM.png
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden slapped major new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment on Tuesday, taking potshots at Donald Trump along the way as he embraced a strategy that’s increasing friction between the world’s two largest economies.

The Democratic president said that Chinese government subsidies ensure the nation’s companies don’t have to turn a profit, giving them an unfair advantage in global trade.

“American workers can outwork and outcompete anyone as long as the competition is fair,” Biden said in the White House Rose Garden. “But for too long, it hasn’t been fair. For years, the Chinese government has poured state money into Chinese companies ... it’s not competition, it’s cheating.”

The tariffs come in the middle of a heated campaign between Biden and Trump, his Republican predecessor, to show who’s tougher on China. In a nod to the presidential campaign, Biden recognized lawmakers from Michigan in his remarks and spoke about workers in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all battleground states in November’s election.

Asked to respond to Trump’s comments that China was eating America’s lunch, Biden said of his rival, “He’s been feeding them a long time.” The Democrat said Trump had failed to crack down on Chinese trade abuses as he had pledged he would do during his presidency.

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s press secretary, called the new tariffs a “weak and futile attempt” to distract from Biden’s own support for EVs in the United States, which Trump says will lead to layoffs at auto factories.

The Chinese government was quick to push back against the tariffs, saying they “will seriously affect the atmosphere of bilateral cooperation.” The foreign ministry used the word “bullying.”

The tariffs are unlikely to have a broad inflationary impact in the short term because of how they’re structured, some not to take effect until 2026, but there could be price increases in the meantime for EV batteries, solar and some other specific items.

Biden administration officials said they think the tariffs won’t escalate tensions with China, yet they expect China will explore ways to respond to the new taxes on its products. It’s uncertain what the long-term impact on prices could be if the tariffs contribute to a wider trade dispute.

The tariffs are to be phased in over the next three years, with those that take effect in 2024 covering EVs, solar cells, syringes, needles, steel and aluminum and more. There are currently very few EVs from China in the U.S., but officials worry low-priced models made possible by Chinese government subsidies could soon start flooding the U.S. market.

Chinese firms can sell EVs for as little as $12,000. China’s solar cell plants and steel and aluminum mills have enough capacity to meet much of the world’s demand, with Chinese officials arguing their production keeps prices low and would aid a transition to the green economy.

China’s commerce ministry said in a statement that the tariffs were “typical political manipulation” as it expressed its “strong dissatisfaction” and pledged to “take resolute measures to defend its rights and interests.”

Under the findings of a four-year review on trade with China, the tax rate on imported Chinese EVs will rise to 102.5% this year, up from total levels of 27.5%. The review was undertaken under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the government to retaliate against trade practices deemed unfair or in violation of global standards.

Under the 301 guidelines, the tariff rate is to double to 50% on solar cell imports this year. Tariffs on certain Chinese steel and aluminum products will climb to 25% this year. Computer chip tariffs will double to 50% by 2025.

For lithium-ion EV batteries, tariffs will rise from 7.5% to 25% this year. But for non-EV batteries of the same type, the tariff increase will be implemented in 2026. There are also higher tariffs on ship-to-shore cranes, critical minerals and medical products.

The new tariffs, at least initially, are largely symbolic since they will apply to only about $18 billion in imports. A new analysis by Oxford Economics estimates the tariffs will have a barely noticeable impact on inflation by pushing up inflation by just 0.01%.

The Chinese EV maker BYD has explored the possibility of opening factories in Mexico for the Mexican market, possibly creating a way to ship goods into the United States. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said she was talking with industry and workers about the possibility and to “stay tuned.”

The auto industry is still trying to assess the impact of the tariffs. But at present, it appears they could be assessed on only two Chinese-made vehicles, the Polestar 2 luxury EV and potentially Volvo’s S90 luxury gas-electric hybrid midsize sedan.

“We’re still reviewing the tariffs to understand exactly what’s affected and how,” said Russell Datz, spokesman for Volvo, a Swedish brand now under China’s Geely group. A message was left seeking comment from Polestar, which also falls under Geely.

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said the U.S. is trampling on the principles of a market economy and international economic and trade rules.

“It’s a naked act of bullying,” Wang said.

The Chinese economy has been slowed by the collapse of the country’s real estate market and past coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, prompting Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to jumpstart growth by ramping up production of EVs and other products, making more than the Chinese market can absorb.

This strategy further exacerbates tensions with a U.S. government that claims it’s determined to strengthen its own manufacturing to compete with China, yet avoid a larger conflict.

“China’s factory-led recovery and weak consumption growth, which are translating into excess capacity and an aggressive search for foreign markets, in tandem with the looming U.S. election season add up to a perfect recipe for escalating U.S. trade fractions with China,’’ said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

The Europeans are worried, too. The EU launched an investigation last fall into Chinese subsidies and could impose an import tax on Chinese EVs.

After Xi’s visit to France last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that government-subsidized Chinese EVs and steel “are flooding the European market” and said, “The world cannot absorb China’s surplus production.’’

Biden’s administration views China, with its subsidies of manufacturing, as trying to globally control the EV and clean-energy sectors, whereas the administration says its own industrial support is geared toward ensuring domestic supplies to help meet U.S. demand.

“We do not seek to have global domination of manufacturing in these sectors, but we believe because these are strategic industries and for the sake of resilience of our supply chains, that we want to make sure that we have healthy and active firms,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.

The tensions go far beyond a trade dispute to deeper questions about who leads the world economy as a seemingly indispensable nation. China’s policies could make the world more dependent on its factories, possibly giving it greater leverage in geopolitics. At the same time, the United States says it’s seeking for countries to operate by the same standards so competition can be fair.

China maintains the tariffs are in violation of the global trade rules the United States originally helped establish through the World Trade Organization. It accuses the U.S. of continuing to politicize trade issues and on Friday said the new tariffs compound the problems caused by tariffs the Trump administration previously put on Chinese goods, which Biden has kept.

Those issues are at the heart of November’s presidential election, with a bitterly divided electorate seemingly united by the idea of getting tough with China. Biden and Trump have overlapping but different strategies.

Biden sees targeted tariffs as needed to defend key industries and workers, while Trump has threatened broad 10% tariffs against all imports from rivals and allies alike.

Biden has staked his presidential legacy on the U.S. pulling ahead of China with its own government investments in factories to make EVs, computer chips and other advanced technologies.

Trump tells his supporters America is falling further behind China by not betting on oil to keep powering the economy, despite its climate change risks. The ex-president may believe tariffs can change Chinese behavior, but he believes the U.S. will be reliant on China for EV components and solar cells.

“Joe Biden’s economic plan is to make China rich and America poor,” he said at a rally this month in Wisconsin.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member

"The EU already charges a tariff of 10 percent on any foreign-made vehicle, versus China’s 15 percent level. The duties announced on Wednesday will be added on top of that, meaning that at the highest level they would approach 50 percent."

Up to double the % Biden imposed a few months ago. Maybe this will trigger a transatlantic race to keep communist authoritarian China from dumping EV on our markets.

Not everyone in Germany is happy about it, especially the car industry who exports a lot to China as well. From another article: "The Chinese Passenger Car Association seemed less concerned. "The EU's provisional tariffs come basically within our expectations, averaging around 20%, which won't have much of an impact on the majority of Chinese firms."

The profit margins are so large the Chinese EV manufacturers won't even need to raise the prices to still make money and be competitive. So it's uncertain this means less Chinese EVs. At least it means less money to China. Volvo decided to move back to Europe the production of two popular models so that's good too. They're partly Chinese now, the move is to circumvent duties but again less money for China and a small economic boast for the area where they'll move it.

Member states get to keep a 25% of the EU duties collected, like those where Chinese EV arrive by sea, main harbors in NL, Germany and Belgium. Rest goes to EU budget. Would be nice if there was a provision included to use the earnings to address climate change. Though that usually involves buying parts, solar panels, or raw materials from China and they're threatening to retaliate.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member

"The EU already charges a tariff of 10 percent on any foreign-made vehicle, versus China’s 15 percent level. The duties announced on Wednesday will be added on top of that, meaning that at the highest level they would approach 50 percent."

Up to double the % Biden imposed a few months ago. Maybe this will trigger a transatlantic race to keep communist authoritarian China from dumping EV on our markets.

Not everyone in Germany is happy about it, especially the car industry who exports a lot to China as well. From another article: "The Chinese Passenger Car Association seemed less concerned. "The EU's provisional tariffs come basically within our expectations, averaging around 20%, which won't have much of an impact on the majority of Chinese firms."

The profit margins are so large the Chinese EV manufacturers won't even need to raise the prices to still make money and be competitive. So it's uncertain this means less Chinese EVs. At least it means less money to China. Volvo decided to move back to Europe the production of two popular models so that's good too. They're partly Chinese now, the move is to circumvent duties but again less money for China and a small economic boast for the area where they'll move it.

Member states get to keep a 25% of the EU duties collected, like those where Chinese EV arrive by sea, main harbors in NL, Germany and Belgium. Rest goes to EU budget. Would be nice if there was a provision included to use the earnings to address climate change. Though that usually involves buying parts, solar panels, or raw materials from China and they're threatening to retaliate.
EU Customers pay the tax/tariff. The real answer is to work on your own costs, not make the products of others less affordable to customers. That said, China is supposedly subsidizing the production of EV vehicles in order to stimulate investment in said production. Hence tariffs. Perhaps the answer lies other than tariffs that shift costs to customers and shrink the overall market. Maybe I just don't understand tariffs.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
EU Customers pay the tax/tariff. The real answer is to work on your own costs, not make the products of others less affordable to customers. That said, China is supposedly subsidizing the production of EV vehicles in order to stimulate investment in said production. Hence tariffs. Perhaps the answer lies other than tariffs that shift costs to customers and shrink the overall market. Maybe I just don't understand tariffs.
Technically importers pay the tariffs. Who then pass those costs on to retailers. The consumer pays for the car barely knowing how that price is established. Most they know and care about is how it compares to prices of other brands and models in their desired segment.

When Trump introduced his tariffs I pointed out many times to his fans that it will be US customers and not China who’ll end up paying. Which was true because those tariffs would and did often directly increase consumer prices of the imported products, i.e. were passed on to consumers. Where that wasn’t the case it were often still the US companies and importers who had to share the damage and take a hit in profits.

The shift to consumers is however not a given, is not an automatic effect of tariffs, just the regular practical way to deal with them in order for everyone in the chain to still make a fair profit. Emphasis on fair. This, EVs, is an entirely different ball game than gouda cheese or soda can metal (examples where everyone in the chain, from manufacturers to end consumers split the increased costs).

China competes not by necessarily offering cheaper cars but more car (and options) for your money. Shifting the tariffs on to customers by raising the retail price accordingly or in large part, would put their cars in a different price segment where they cannot compete in the same way and would for many kill the incentive many customers have to buy a chinese EV at all.

It’s still doubtful it will work great, some don’t even need to make a profit, not on the overproduction they want to dump anyway, but I think it’s a good thing that should be reevaluated frequently.

The real answer is to work on your own costs, not make the products of others less affordable to customers.
That would be a fair approach in a fair normal trade relationship. It’s not a realistic answer to the real problem at hand, which isn’t too high costs or high profit margings for those being protected, nor a lack of efforts to reduce them. The problem is products that have artificially with government subsidies (which with exceptions is illegal in EU) made more affordable to consumers resulting in unfair competition.
 
Last edited:

Sativied

Well-Known Member
I missed this one before my previous posts: Biden increases tariffs on Chinese EV to 100%:

Don’t expect prices of Chinese EV in US to increase accordingly and customers effectively paying the tariffs. Instead, China will have to export them cheaper, take less profit, so that after profit margins in the chain and taxes it enters the consumer market at a similar competitive retail price. Else it kills their main stategy and it’s still a win.

Tesla did announce prices hikes, which seems too soon regardless of what Musk does not necessarily making any sense, cause EU is still working on an exception for Teslas from China. Regardless, Tesla can do that and keep their position.

Chinese car makers doing well on stock exchanges since the EU tariffs news as investors know too they can handle it (and those who might not, like state-owned SAIC, shouldn’t).
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
Just a short addendum: 75-80% of the import duties, the portion the collection member state doesn't get to keep, goes to the EU budget and is subtracted from the total of Gross National Income-based EU contributions. Effectively, an increase in EU import duties translates to less national income tax of all member states needing to go to the EU. That's music to not just net-contributor's ears. It's not my prediction or speculation, it's the expectation of those working on it and those dealing with it, that it will cut into profits much more than it will and realistically can increase consumer prices. If a consumer needs to pay a couple of thousand more and EU gets 3-4 times that, that what China doesn't get, and then effectively gets spread out over all income tax paying EU citizens. Money paid by those who can afford an EV. Then yeah, more of this EU stuff please (no way we could do this on a national level without starting a trade war).
 
Top