Here's the thing, I get you had a couple Econ classes back in the day. Most likely a entry level and maybe a intermediate macro class and a micro class or two. But we both then know that even getting a's in those classes don't mean they teach it to a level that the reasoning and math, nor the statistical breakdown that make them up. And even 20 years ago it is not like they had as much info as we now do, forcing even more rigorous changes to the models.
Think of all the Major events since then, the info on tax decreases under regan wasn't until late eighties, the recession under bush senior that introduced the importance of foriegn investment, the dot com burst, oh the chicago bank in 87?, the moves of the nineties that gave us a booming decade, and so many more without even talking of all the tremendous events over seas.
The models keep showing that when we apply the data from these events and examine what happened the main theory that you constantly refer to as keynsian (even though this is not a discussion about long run or short run, which is the only real time the distinction should even be brought up) comes out correct.
Austrian economics is not anything other than maybe a good book about rules of thumbs, or common sense, but really it is just like intelligent design. They say we are headed towards trouble because of the dollar being not linked to gold, but then for years they chant the sky is falling, and because every so often they happen to go into a recession, doesn't mean they called anything. Continuity does not equal corollary.
The US dollar cannot go up, the more they print the more it goes down, it really is that simple. The Fed no longer is concerned with a stable value for the dollar, they only know how to inflate and nothing else.
Because a 2.5ish inflation rate actually is a good thing for our economy every study has shown, and the fed fights to maintain it, you get that they know nothing else? And by stable it is actually a 2.5ish inflation rate that they have seemed to maintain. And even that is a struggle as they learned more and more over the last almost hundred years, from the classical economics of the four ties and the Keynes model in the fifties and half the sixties, to the new classical model that regan introduced to the monetarist model that dominated to the new keynsian model that Clinton brought in, back a bit with bush, before the model now which you're determined to call keyensian. And every time the politicians that we entrust our economy to, decide they know more than the economists and do what ever spending I'll advised or not that they want.
You need to realize that Hyperinflation is not caused by inflation. Inflation is growth of the money supply, Hyperinflation is loss of confidence in the currency. You can easily have deflation and then overnight Hyperinflation. I think you assume I think they are a correlating phenomena.
Do you realize the scale of what you are assuming? That would mean that about what a forty percent of the people would have to pretty much decide their money is worthless and dump it? That pretty much would mean in a coordinated effort they would have to purchase not only all the raw materials but all the land and all the guns, and then somehow remove us all onto a vacation or something so that we would not fight it..
America is not postwar Germany, not zimbabwee, ect. If nothing else you should see that as much as you hate the banks they would never let this happen because it would mean they would not get all the products made that their CEOs demand if we don't have a vibrant economy.
The Bond market could very easily blow up in a couple of hours, making the "Flash Crash" pale in comparison, the only thing you need to get it started is a large rise in the price of a Commodity and all those banks that hold the majority of treasuries will sell those treasuries to buy that commodity. The Fed will of course buy those Treasuries to keep the rate down and the dollar as strong as possible, but it won't work. The Fed is actually very limited in a crisis.
With a little more economic thought you would see that even if that happened, like a devaluing that Mexico boned by letting some companies know about it before hand. The market would stabilize, because eventually the dollar would get to a point that the investors would want to get back into a cheaper commodity. America is too good of an investment to let it drop more than three four spots even in the worst conditions.
Just like a fantasy football draft, you wouldn't let Peyton manning slip to fifth qb picked.
JP Morgan has left the Silver market, JP Morgan was the Largest naked short seller in the world, shorting more silver than even exists. The Volker rule makes it impossible for them to trade for their own book any longer. I would advise to buy silver if you want to make some money, seriously. Screw gold. Its a Bargain at $22 an ounce , spot is 19.30 right this minute, but you have to pay a 10% premium to buy the actual physical metal, which is about the best way to own it. Fun to play with, pure silver has a very distinct sound.
I like silver too, but not for the reasons you listed aside from being cheap. Those stats don't scare me anymore because I did the math last time they broke records and realized it was the equivalent of a two percent move for the day they made.
There isn't anything wrong with Austrian Economics, I don't know everything there is to know about it either. I was schooled in Keynesian just like you, In fact I majored in business. My dad barely graduated from high school, but every business he has tried has been VERY successful. He always said he just used common sense, I listened to him give me some pointers and I was amazed by how very similar to Austrian it was. He is pissed he is going to get taxed more ( He makes more than $250k a year).
I'm truly do think it is great that your dad has done well. And understand taxes suck. But even he has to admit that pretty much every successful business over the last few decades has made a tremendous amount of their profits due to the loose credit and the amount of money that it allowed them and their customer base to put into their pockets. All of us are producers selling a product, and we made a lot of progress over the last few decades and we are at a point that the economy was outpacing the people working In it.
Too much money has been lent and injected. The high spending in military, too much wasted social spending, too much money to misaimed crime fighting, too much judicial spending, piss poor management of our workforces education, ect. And it doesn't even mean that the amou ts were too much or too little I guess, just not enough in the right places creating bloat like an overwatered plant.
But that is more a problem with the elected officials that don't even know the right questions to ask much less the answers they get, than it is with the people who have dedicated their lives studying and working in those fields in my opinion.
