ginwilly
Well-Known Member
You want us to mirror Japan's lost decades of economic growth? fuck! So that's the bar we set now with Obama, great.
The Feds Decision
- Thread starter Balzac89
- Start date
The chart you have posted appears to be referencing the rate of change of annual public deficits. Note how it dips below the zero line sometime in the 90s. That's all anybody needs to know about that chart. The ratio I am referring to is total credit market debt, public and private. It is well north of 300% and that is not including all the OTC derivative contracts extant. The fed pretends that this is not only sustainable, but expandable. Just keep printing debt and we can all live the high life forever, like Japan. Forget about the fact that Japan is perched on the edge of the abyss. The NIKKEI is still less than half what it was 24 years ago. That is not for lack of interventionist economic efforts. Last time I checked, the public debt to GDP alone was at 220% in Nippon.
"Kinda retarded"? No doubt the same thing was said - more emphatically - in 2005.
The Japanese are laughing? Have you checked their reproduction rates? I'd say they are crying, stoically.
Winter Woman
Well-Known Member
Ringsixty I agree. The rest of you read this if you have the man parts.
http://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2013/09/the-peak-debt-twilight-zone.html
As for the sustainability of state health care in the industrialized world, that is unlikely. How has it been "sustained" thus far? By the creation of debt, that's how. The first world has enjoyed a 30 year bull market and by taking advantage of the general euphoria, they have stuffed tons of debt into the pension plans of pretty much every public and private planner on Earth. It is assumed that these debts will be repaid, regardless of the endless issuance of new debt. Get the price of oil back down to $10 per barrel - and keep it there - and this game could go on another 20 years. In reality, the only way that oil is going back to $10 is in the case of either a decline in demand due to global economic collapse or, more likely, a real war. Neither of those two conditions will facilitate the repayment of debts.
This man is what I call a seere or a see'er or a smart mother fucker....LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL oh my that was funny
Balzac89
Undercover Mod
When was the last time War made anything cheaper especially oil?
Never, but I assume a real war will be nuclear resulting in a significant reduction of oil consumers. However, in light of the fact that oil production could well be impaired by such an event, a drop in the oil price (real, not nominal) would likely be a post-war outcome.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
that's because we ran a surplus at the time. math is not difficult.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2013/0515/Why-federal-budget-deficit-is-falling-faster-than-CBO-expected
deficits projected to be at 2.1% of GDP by 2015.
the sky is not falling anytime soon. see japan.
what filthy squalor they live in, practically eating their own feces by now.
Harrekin
Well-Known Member
Super spacious...that's because we ran a surplus at the time. math is not difficult.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2013/0515/Why-federal-budget-deficit-is-falling-faster-than-CBO-expected
deficits projected to be at 2.1% of GDP by 2015.
the sky is not falling anytime soon. see japan.
what filthy squalor they live in, practically eating their own feces by now.
As previously stated, "the total debt to GDP ratio is at historically unprecedented levels: there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that this is sustainable." The chart you posted has nothing whatsoever to do with the total debt to GDP ratio. The annual deficits with which you are concerned are cumulative. The fleeting supluses of the nineties, were these used to pay down the national debt? I'll bet not.
Again, what is the reproduction rate of the Japanese? If they had faith in their future, they would be making babies. Who is going to support all those Japanese pensioners? Is increasing their national debt in perpetuity going to do the trick?
Ultimately, the entire first world is sitting on a mountain of debt that is continuing to grow. That model has never been sustainable in the past and there is zero reason to think that this time is different. Quite the contrary, considering the growing constraints on energy resources in an ever more populous world.
EDIT: What is your photo supposed to prove? That the lights are on and the Japanese enjoy walking? Just because they are facing a bankruptcy cascade, I don't expect them to turn out the lights. Well, not all of them.
ChesusRice
Well-Known Member
Did we have a mountain of debt after the founding of our country?
How abotu after the civil war?
WW2?
Are we still here and prosperous?
ChesusRice
Well-Known Member
The economy is not doing great.
Agreed
It's recovering though and the roads are now crowded again with people going to work.
BULLSHIT and you know it.
ChesusRice
Well-Known Member
I'm working
Everyone I know who wants a job is working
Housing is on the uptick
Stock market
Retail
Unemployment going down
My guess is the economy will never be doing better until The Republicans try to take credit for it
Founding of the country and the civil war? Considering the primitive weapons systems employed at those times, I doubt the debts incurred were anything to worry too terribly about. More importantly, there was no reason to believe that economic growth would falter.
As for WWII, see the chart below. Note that the falloff in GDP in the early thirties is what drove the ratio higher during that period. When GDP hits the skids this time, I expect a percentage greater than 500%.
Still here and prosperous? For the moment, yes.
From 1971, direct from the Fed itself:
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
your chart says the debt is $52 trillion. it is not.Founding of the country and the civil war? Considering the primitive weapons systems employed at those times, I doubt the debts incurred were anything to worry too terribly about. More importantly, there was no reason to believe that economic growth would falter.
As for WWII, see the chart below. Note that the falloff in GDP in the early thirties is what drove the ratio higher during that period. When GDP hits the skids this time, I expect a percentage greater than 500%.
Still here and prosperous? For the moment, yes.
From 1971, direct from the Fed itself:
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
false.
the debt has been much higher as a percentage of GDP in the past than it is now.
the debt is not $52 trillion and has been higher in the past.
the sky didn't fall.
quit yer squawking, chicken little.
Did I say public debt? No, I said total debt. And you are right the total debt is not $52 trillion. The first NDR chart only goes out to 2011, so sorry.
According to the chart from the Fed, it appears to be about $58 trillion.
Be sure to load up on stocks and real estate Buck. The Fed has got your back.
EDIT: Your public debt chart is outdated. According to Wikipedia, "on April 2, 2013, debt held by the public was approximately $11.959 trillion or about 75% of GDP." Interesting how the rate of change shown by your chart puts the last few years on par with WWII. It is worth reading the Wikipedia article to see what is excluded from the public debt calculation.
According to the chart from the Fed, it appears to be about $58 trillion.
Be sure to load up on stocks and real estate Buck. The Fed has got your back.
EDIT: Your public debt chart is outdated. According to Wikipedia, "on April 2, 2013, debt held by the public was approximately $11.959 trillion or about 75% of GDP." Interesting how the rate of change shown by your chart puts the last few years on par with WWII. It is worth reading the Wikipedia article to see what is excluded from the public debt calculation.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
let me guess: rawn pawl fanboy?
edit: do you also use U6 unemployment figures when the rest of us use the more agreed upon, conventional measurement of things that does not make chicken little look more believable?