The Feds Decision

[Balzac89]

Never, but I assume a real war will be nuclear resulting in a significant reduction of oil consumers. However, in light of the fact that oil production could well be impaired by such an event, a drop in the oil price (real, not nominal) would likely be a post-war outcome.

Perhaps prices would drop, but they would sky rocket first.

 

[Balzac89]

All this growth is fueled by cheap Fed Dollars. Not if, but when rates go up the growth will decline.

The Fed can't fuel the economy forever. The purchasing was supposed to taper off after a rate of growth was achieved.

The engine will be flooded eventually, you can only prime so much.

 

[ChesusRice]

All this growth is fueled by cheap Fed Dollars. Not if, but when rates go up the growth will decline.

The Fed can't fuel the economy forever. The purchasing was supposed to taper off after a rate of growth was achieved.

The engine will be flooded eventually, you can only prime so much.

Soft landing is possible. It has been done before

 

[Balzac89]

Soft landing is possible. It has been done before

There has to be a decline. The build up of debt causes the cycle. A big chunk of debt must be repaid to restart a new growth cycle. A new cycle of debt creation/ prosperity.

 

[fg2020]

There has to be a decline. The build up of debt causes the cycle. A big chunk of debt must be repaid to restart a new growth cycle. A new cycle of debt creation/ prosperity.

That's it in a nutshell. The only thing I would add is that while many debts will be repaid ("fire sales to meet liquidity needs will abound"), there are also going to be a lot of defaults. In the USA and elsewhere.

Somewhat ironically, if Japan would simply let the inevitable bankruptcies happen, they could end their long slide into the abyss in short order. Now, their demographic problem is a different animal, and, unlike the USA, they are resistant to increasing the population via immigration. The Japanese nuclear problem is another hairball. It's not like they have fossil fuel reserves to draw on.

 

[fg2020]

let me guess: rawn pawl fanboy?

edit: do you also use U6 unemployment figures when the rest of us use the more agreed upon, conventional measurement of things that does not make chicken little look more believable?

What would I "use unemployment figures" for? Perhaps to engage in partisan propaganda flame wars? No thanks, I really have no particular interest in unemployment figures, conventional or otherwise. When unemployment gets severe enough the government will create jobs programs. Because that's what governments do, regardless of the political party in office.

I am curious: what is behind your love of the State? Are you a beneficiary of their largesse via SSI or similar programs?

 

[Hemlock]

What would I "use unemployment figures" for? Perhaps to engage in partisan propaganda flame wars? No thanks, I really have no particular interest in unemployment figures, conventional or otherwise. When unemployment gets severe enough the government will create jobs programs. Because that's what governments do, regardless of the political party in office.

I am curious: what is behind your love of the State? Are you a beneficiary of their largesse via SSI or similar programs?

LOLOLOLOLOL you go

 

[ChesusRice]

There has to be a decline. The build up of debt causes the cycle. A big chunk of debt must be repaid to restart a new growth cycle. A new cycle of debt creation/ prosperity.

Doesnt have to be a decline
Output is catching up to pre 2009 levels. Where do you think the deficit cuts have been coming from?

 

[Balzac89]

Doesnt have to be a decline
Output is catching up to pre 2009 levels. Where do you think the deficit cuts have been coming from?

That's not repaying debts that is just creating less debt at the moment.

 

[ChesusRice]

That's not repaying debts that is just creating less debt at the moment.

First step in paying off debt is bringing in more income thanyou are paying off in bills

 

[Balzac89]

First step in paying off debt is bringing in more income thanyou are paying off in bills

And or Cutting expenses

 

[ChesusRice]

And or Cutting expenses

You mean like stop buying gas and not being able to get to work?

 

[Balzac89]

You mean like stop buying gas and not being able to get to work?

I mean like funding the Afghan War

 

[ChesusRice]

I mean like funding the Afghan War

Talk to me again this time next year about that

 

[Rob Roy]

I'm working
Everyone I know who wants a job is working
Housing is on the uptick
Stock market
Retail
Unemployment going down

My guess is the economy will never be doing better until The Republicans try to take credit for it

Is the "economy" a result of government policy or does it operate independent of the government?

 

[Balzac89]

I wanted to add it's not just government debt its consumer debt as well

 

[cannabineer]

the annual debt to GDP ratio is normal. it has been much worse.

we'll see about your predictions of a second housing bubble, to me it sounds kinda retarded. no offense.*

a lot of the other stuff you said is true enough, but tell japan that our debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable. they'll laugh while they continue to enjoy their high standard of living and their very sustainable, efficient, universal healthcare program.

n.b. the change in debt to GDP contains zero information about the actual ratio. You're stripping that info out by going to a graph that plots the first derivative.

 

[smokinafatty]

I hope they sign something soon so I can go to work next week and don't have to start selling weed to pay bills. Buncha jackasses.

 

[Balzac89]

I hope they sign something soon so I can go to work next week and don't have to start selling weed to pay bills. Buncha jackasses.

The Federal Reserves Monetary Policy doesn't really have anything to do with the complications in the Senate and House