Critical Thought Experiments

Okay, let's break down the number of possibilities. For g-b we have 7 distinct possibilities, the girl on a Friday and the boy on one of the 7 days.
For the b-g, we have the same 7 possibilities.
For the g-g, we have only 13, not 14 as we shouldn't count Friday-Friday twice. So we have 27 possibilities and only 13 are two girls making 13/27 or 48.1%
If we take 'neer's belief that one and only one girl is born on a Friday, then we get 12/26 or 6/13 or 46.1%

Absolutely correct! The trick lies in not counting the Friday possibilities twice.

By supplying a bit of seemingly irrelevant information the man changed the odds quite a bit from 1/3 to 13/27. The more specific and rare the information provided (weekdays are 1/7), the closer the chance of having two daughters gets to 50%.
 
Here is an official explanation, except this changes the gender to boys and the weekday to Tuesday.




Let's list the equally likely possibilities of children, together with the days of the week they are born in. Let's call a boy born on a Tuesday a BTu. Our possible situations are:


When the first child is a BTu and the second is a girl born on any day of the week: there are seven different possibilities.
When the first child is a girl born on any day of the week and the second is a BTu: again, there are seven different possibilities.
When the first child is a BTu and the second is a boy born on any day of the week: again there are seven different possibilities.
Finally, there is the situation in which the first child is a boy born on any day of the week and the second child is a BTu – and this is where it gets interesting. There are seven different possibilities here too, but one of them – when both boys are born on a Tuesday – has already been counted when we considered the first to be a BTu and the second on any day of the week. So, since we are counting equally likely possibilities, we can only find an extra six possibilities here.


Summing up the totals, there are 7 + 7 + 7 + 6 = 27 different equally likely combinations of children with specified gender and birth day, and 13 of these combinations are two boys. So the answer is 13/27, which is very different from 1/3.


It seems remarkable that the probability of having two boys changes from 1/3 to 13/27 when the birth day of one boy is stated – yet it does, and it's quite a generous difference at that.

http://www.newscientist.com/article...ing-of-mathemagical-tricksters.html?full=true
 
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