It's not as if that website is all alone in reporting that Biden's polling numbers indicate there are troubles that must be faced and addressed by Democrats in this election season. The Bulwark is not run by Democrats. It's run by conservatives who were once Republicans but have been run out of what was once their party by Trump's radical and extremist faction. They are very worried about Democrat's chances this fall but are rallying to Biden and helping Democrats because they see the risk posed by Trump and MAGA as the main issue of this election.
Anyway, this interview with Simon Rosenberg gives reasons why Democrats should be optimistic about the prospects of not only winning the presidential election but why Rosenthal thinks we are going to kick their asses.
Simon Rosenberg: I Think We're Going to Kick His Ass
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/simon-rosenberg-i-think-were-going
He's not entirely rosy about the election:
at 28:00:
Simon: " I'm not being Pollyannaish here, the election is tied. I don't think anybody should be happy about that, some of our coalition is wandering, I think we've got to get them back."
Tim: "you agree with that, you aren't doing poll trutherism here"
Simon: "no"
Tim: "You think the election is basically tied right now. You talked about how the Biden team seems very calm or sanguine about things, I forget the term you used"
Simon: "Quietly confident"
Tim: "Quietly confident. That worries me a little bit. I've heard from Biden people personally and in the New Yorker article, we
interviewed Evan Onos about this. There are high level Biden people that think the polls are broken. That do think the polls are misrepresenting reality. And I don't really share that view."
Simon: "This has been kind of .. not, and I've been accused of poll trutherism, right"
Tim: "I wasn't accusing you (laughs)"
Simon: "I know, I know, Let me try to explain the reality of this as opposed to the caricature of this. I think there is a quiet confidence that once we push the chess pieces forward. That, Joe Biden is a good president, people are better off, we have a strong case to make, we are raising tons more money that they are, our party is more unified, right? We've been winning elections all across the country. When voters have to go out and vote, we've been overperforming expectations, they keep underperforming. And then, there's their dumpster fire shit show on the other side. Where the RNC is completely broke and broken, there is an unprecedented rebellion against the nominee the likes of which we've never seen in our lifetime"
Tim: "You are talking about the primary?"
Simon: "Yeah, well, no. I mean, all of you (chuckles), we are talking about Romney, two former vice presidents, Republican nominee of the party, right? Many other Republican Party leaders, Chris Christie announced he was not able to support Trump. We've never seen that kind of rebellion against the nominee of one party and I think, as you know, the whole premise of your work is creating that permission structure for Republicans to not vote for Republicans. We have more powerful tools in order to do that than we've ever had. And it's why I think this Never Trump or Never MAGA wing of the Republican Party is going to be, this is an existential threat to Trump in 2024.
Because I think something broke in the Republican Party with Dobbs. In that I think for many in the Republican Party they said, "OK, this is a bridge too far, they've gone too far, the party is too dangerous". And what you've seen happen is in practically every election since 2022, that Democrats have overperformed expectations and Republican have underperformed. ... I think as people have gone through the process of having to vote, right, where they go from being a registered voter to a likely voter to a voter. Right? That when they start looking at MAGA, the ugliness of MAGA is causing Republicans to lose votes and to lose money."
The whole interview is pretty good and I found interesting. They don't just dwell on Republicans and the threat Trump faces from the revolt going on right now in that party. They talk about the student unrest and how Simon thinks that is in issue but not a large one for the election. They talk about Latino voters and why, though proportionally more are voting Republican now than before, the Latino vote still favors Biden by a large margin. And other reasons why Republicans are simply sucking when it comes to this election season.
So, yes, polls show one thing but there are plenty of other factors in play that are not reflected in the polls. Such as a large rebellion among Republicans who are repulsed by Trump. And the racism Trump holds against Latinos that cause them to vote for Biden over Trump. And the effect that the Dobbs decision has on the votes of women. Democrats have their work cut out for them. The election is basically tied right now and even if all the things Rosenberg talks about fall in Democrats' favor, the election will still be close but he still thinks Democrats are going to kick the Republican Party's ass in the fall.