Gas Prices Heading Down

Parker

Well-Known Member
First off, I am not confusing the Fed and the government, going back to my post I said "QE3 will probably help but it'd be better to pass stimulus"... I never said the Fed was passing stimulus, it might have read a little like that but my intent was along the lines of "QE3 would help but it'd be better if congress passed a stimulus bill."
QE 1 and 2 haven't worked. They have prolonged the depression. What reasons do you think QE3 will work?

As for budget considerations for the future being a farce, allow me to explain what I'm advocating for: Let's say Republicans and Democrats agree to a $4 trillion reduction plan over 10 years. Now, currently it's looking like they would enact these cuts immediately and 10 years from now the government will have made $4 trillion in total cuts. Now, I'm not against cuts I'm against cuts right now. If this $4 trillion in cuts is held off till say, 2020, and had a stimulus attached to it to deal with our short term economic problems (EMPLOYMENT) I'd be right there.
it is important to note these are not budget cuts when discussing the proposed budgets the repubs and dems have brought to the table. The Tea parties Rand Paul Budget is the one with actual cuts. When you increase something but not as high as originally proposed, it is still an increase.

The thing is, Austerity is not a growth tool as Republicans have been arguing; It's a debt reduction and structural tool. Austerity hurts in the short term, and if done without a strong, fully employed and producing economy - Austerity can and will create a more dire economic situation. Stimulus first, Austerity later.
Government has never been able to stimulate the economy for long AND the busts are always worse than the booms. History has proven this time and time again. I would never want the fools in Congress who have ruined this country to be in charge of the recovery UNLESS I was one of their buddies who received money from their managed economy.

Wow so you're doubling down? All lights are green for GO for QE3. All economic indicators - especially now that the main driver of the commodity bubble, gas prices, have backed off... Look, in other threads you admit that the Fed holds the most control over the economy... Why are so you against them doing their job?
It is not the role of government to run/manipulate the economy.
Why is it a good indicator that gas has dropped in price. lol Why isn't the point that gas is over $.80-$1 higher than a year ago discussed? Or the point that summer time usually brings a drop in gas prices? Why isn't that discussed?

I dont think I've ever spent $100 for a week of groceries, either. You feeding several mouths? I consistently spend $50 a week at the grocery store.Besides, if the dollar has lost 15% of it's value lately due to QE as Bernanke says, how the fuck can you be telling me food prices are set to triple with QE3? That's pretty far away from what arithmetic would have you believe...
I disagree with food prices tripling but does a 10-15 percent rise make you feel good all over? What is very important and should never be swept under the rug is FOOD PRICES ARE RISING PERIOD. That affects everyone but mainly those on limited income.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
QE 1 and 2 haven't worked. They have prolonged the depression. What reasons do you think QE3 will work?
Umm... Do you have any evidence of this? No? Prior to QE1 we were closer to DEFLATION than any inflation at all. Trust me, with as much private and public debt floating around ATM deflation would have for sure brought plenty of pain. Contrary to your assertion, QE1 and QE2 have helped:
private debt.jpgKrugman.jpg
As you can see the manufacturing trade balance has obviously been effected by the dollars slide (Which actually started with the Bush years, and no I'm not complaining..). Aside from that, every bit of inflation helps those who are in debt - which, behind housing(although related), is the biggest obstacle to the U.S. recovery.
it is important to note these are not budget cuts when discussing the proposed budgets the repubs and dems have brought to the table. The Tea parties Rand Paul Budget is the one with actual cuts. When you increase something but not as high as originally proposed, it is still an increase.
This is called "bending the curve". Considering our main budget problem in the future is not that excessive entitlements have been handed out, but a problem of spiraling healthcare costs. This strategy is absolutely legitimate. The U.S. doesn't have to make extreme cuts at all; You're falling for the "we must destroy it to fix it" doctrine that has been shot down by evidence repeatedly. Truth is, our fiscal situation is horribly overstated; Our short term situation, especially(most of the "increased size of government" under Obama is actually a loss of revenue combined with increased safety net spending not some kind of government takeover).
Government has never been able to stimulate the economy for long AND the busts are always worse than the booms. History has proven this time and time again. I would never want the fools in Congress who have ruined this country to be in charge of the recovery UNLESS I was one of their buddies who received money from their managed economy.
Absolutely wrong. Case and point: What about all that government spending during the Great Depression and WW2? WW2 came around, government spends more than at any other time in hostory (compared to the size of the economy) and the following decades were the best time in U.S. history.
It is not the role of government to run/manipulate the economy.
It is the Governments role to ensure fair play and it is the governments role to fight recessions. This comes down to idealogy, though. I'm not going to beat on this drum, as it's a waste of time.
Why is it a good indicator that gas has dropped in price. lol Why isn't the point that gas is over $.80-$1 higher than a year ago discussed? Or the point that summer time usually brings a drop in gas prices? Why isn't that discussed?
Gas is a good indicator because gas prices were, in part, driving the commodity bubble. As Bernanke has pointed out, much of the increase in CPI is all gas prices. If you exclude gas prices, CPI is much closer to core inflation numbers. Now, I'm not saying some prices aren't going up (wheat, corn) or that Gas wont go up again - I'm saying that these price increases are not primarily driven by inflation (I mean, unless you can explain how gas went up 160% while the USD lost only 15% of it's value? Inflation, mathematically, cannot be responsible for the entire increase in prices...)
I disagree with food prices tripling but does a 10-15 percent rise make you feel good all over? What is very important and should never be swept under the rug is FOOD PRICES ARE RISING PERIOD. That affects everyone but mainly those on limited income.
This is true, those with lower income are effected the most, but I actually posted a couple of articles in this thread about Wheat, corn, etc that basically say food prices would have gone up, and will continue to go up with or without QE because there are supply/demand imbalances; The world population is growing and this years crops are expected to be far below average... basic economics says prices go up when demand outpaces supply (which BTW is exactly what has been happening to gas prices in recent years... demand is outpacing supply).
 

mame

Well-Known Member
I see what you are saying about congress, but its a bad idea in my opinion.

It does nothing to have a budget reduction over 10 years when all you can do is the current years budget, that same budget cut over 10 years will have to be re argued every year for the whole 10 years. The US does its budget yearly, anything planned that takes more than 1 year to implement is unfeasible, the next goof ball in office will line item vote it out, that simple. Budgets are done yearly and voted on yearly. They do not vote on budget measures that affects more than the current years budget. Any plan more than 1 year to implement will NEVER pass, since by mandate it cannot be voted on. Smoke and Mirrors to keep you distracted.
I guess... I mean, if they dont mind losing their job? There is definantly risk that an implemented plan could just be scrapped 6 years from now or something - keeping it from ever happening as you say; Surely that's a risk but cuts now are not a good idea either. IMO anything is better than cutting RIGHT NOW as it'll just hurt more than it'll help.


I feed multiple mouths, 5 right now. I spend $40 a week just for milk, wish I had my own cow, but you know that raw milk is the equivalent to Plutonium?
Damn that's a lot of milk. I buy two gallons for every three weeks on average, but obviously I have no one else to feed (just me, malady and the dog).

All lights are green and go for QE3, it is the only choice available and has been the only choice available for 3 years now. I have 90% of my chips riding on this.
Absolutely; It is the only option outside of fiscal stimulus which is politically toxic and therefore not going to happen.

The main driver of Prices is not gasoline or oil, it is money printing by the fed.
But gas has gone up 160% against a 15% devaluation in the dollar? Surely you've got an explanation for this? What you're saying would make sense in the late 70's but we're just not seeing the same thing. I guess you could argue that speculation brought on by inflation expectations can explain some of the difference - but it's hard to deny supply/demand has been playing the main role... There just isn't any evidence to support the hypothesis that it's all driven by money printing.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
I think the term best used is stabilized. http://www.freecharts.com/commodities/index.html?page=mktcom&gclid=COLa1J76q6kCFQZDgwodXW_yMA

$99 ish

So we get used to $4 ish and in a year we surge to $5
Yeah, I guess the title is misleading now. At the time the thread started crude was in the process of plummeting... The selloff ended pretty quick and has since stablized, obviously.

Thanks for the clarification. I guess it kind of sucks you're in Cali, it's a bit cheaper than $4 here(haven't checked in over a week but last I saw was 3.80 something, think I posted in this thread after I saw it).
 

mame

Well-Known Member
doesn't suck for me. I get 100mpg+ on my new motorbike.
shit son that must be nice.

I walk almost everywhere I go, my GFs car gets good mileage and we dont have to use it much so gas prices barely effect me at all ATM. ;)
 

Ernst

Well-Known Member
-~
I have a two year plan.

I rode a bike for 2.5 years since I lived so close to the job, then went 4x4 V8 and now a motorized bike.
Two years from now it should be clear to all what our new economic future really is and at that time I will decide what I'll use for transport.

Actually, the "bugs" are being worked out on the bike. I have to tune the exhaust and stop using 91~93 octane (burns slow) so 89 octane is better for this 2-stroke.
I should see a 10 to 20 mpg improvement and a power increase once the intake and exhaust are sealed and tuned better.
That is what the experts say.

But, for those of you willing to spend the money there is savings in the 2 - 3 year range especially for me over the $100 fill up on the old 4x4.

One tank a week, 4 a month 48 a year.. $4800 a year for gas for the 4x4.. I have all my expense for this custom build motorbike covered in just a few months at that rate.

Maybe the smart people are riding bikes now?
 

txhazard

Well-Known Member
It is the year before election year, prices will go up uP UP. Then in 2012 it will go down, happens all the time. "Happy" civilians means "Happy" voters...
 

jeff f

New Member
Umm... Do you have any evidence of this? No? Prior to QE1 we were closer to DEFLATION than any inflation at all. Trust me, with as much private and public debt floating around ATM deflation would have for sure brought plenty of pain. Contrary to your assertion, QE1 and QE2 have helped:
View attachment 1642016View attachment 1642017
As you can see the manufacturing trade balance has obviously been effected by the dollars slide (Which actually started with the Bush years, and no I'm not complaining..). Aside from that, every bit of inflation helps those who are in debt - which, behind housing(although related), is the biggest obstacle to the U.S. recovery.
This is called "bending the curve". Considering our main budget problem in the future is not that excessive entitlements have been handed out, but a problem of spiraling healthcare costs. This strategy is absolutely legitimate. The U.S. doesn't have to make extreme cuts at all; You're falling for the "we must destroy it to fix it" doctrine that has been shot down by evidence repeatedly. Truth is, our fiscal situation is horribly overstated; Our short term situation, especially(most of the "increased size of government" under Obama is actually a loss of revenue combined with increased safety net spending not some kind of government takeover).
Absolutely wrong. Case and point: What about all that government spending during the Great Depression and WW2? WW2 came around, government spends more than at any other time in hostory (compared to the size of the economy) and the following decades were the best time in U.S. history.
It is the Governments role to ensure fair play and it is the governments role to fight recessions. This comes down to idealogy, though. I'm not going to beat on this drum, as it's a waste of time.
Gas is a good indicator because gas prices were, in part, driving the commodity bubble. As Bernanke has pointed out, much of the increase in CPI is all gas prices. If you exclude gas prices, CPI is much closer to core inflation numbers. Now, I'm not saying some prices aren't going up (wheat, corn) or that Gas wont go up again - I'm saying that these price increases are not primarily driven by inflation (I mean, unless you can explain how gas went up 160% while the USD lost only 15% of it's value? Inflation, mathematically, cannot be responsible for the entire increase in prices...)
This is true, those with lower income are effected the most, but I actually posted a couple of articles in this thread about Wheat, corn, etc that basically say food prices would have gone up, and will continue to go up with or without QE because there are supply/demand imbalances; The world population is growing and this years crops are expected to be far below average... basic economics says prices go up when demand outpaces supply (which BTW is exactly what has been happening to gas prices in recent years... demand is outpacing supply).

and the planners continue to plan......too fucking funny smart guy. what, another 15 year depression? your off to a good start fdr
 

jeff f

New Member
shit son that must be nice.

I walk almost everywhere I go, my GFs car gets good mileage and we dont have to use it much so gas prices barely effect me at all ATM. ;)
do you realize whats involved in getting your groceries to market? even a little bit? didnt think so...

oh and for the other tard, all farmed by rednecks.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
and the planners continue to plan......too fucking funny smart guy. what, another 15 year depression? your off to a good start fdr
I am not a central planner. One day you'll learn to read and realize I am not a socialist or a commie; One day you'll realize that believing government has a role in life is different than being for "big government" or whatever it is that has your panties in a bunch. Maybe one day... I wont be holding my breath though.
do you realize whats involved in getting your groceries to market? even a little bit? didnt think so...

oh and for the other tard, all farmed by rednecks.
Uhm yes, I completely understand the concept of shipping, etc. effecting food prices... My grocery bill is low; In all this time that gasoline and food have spiked, I've barely even noticed because gasoline and food take up such a small portion of my budget. You should really try to troll somewhere else, because you're failing pretty badly here.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
Umm... Do you have any evidence of this? No? Prior to QE1 we were closer to than any inflation at all. Trust me,
Umm... I would never trust you because you say so. I trust me after I get the information. I would not trust someone who thinks the ones who manipulated the economy would be the ones to get it back on the right track. Congress has NEVER helped the economy except for short term. Why would they break that streak now?
with as much private and public debt floating around ATM deflation would have for sure brought plenty of pain. Contrary to your assertion, QE1 and QE2 have helped:
As you can see the manufacturing trade balance has obviously been effected by the dollars slide (Which actually started with the Bush years, and no I'm not complaining..). Aside from that, every bit of inflation helps those who are in debt - which, behind housing(although related), is the biggest obstacle to the U.S. recovery.
you didn't bring anything to the table on your answer. Unemployment is over 9, not 8 like we were promised by the pretty chart put out by the Obamas crack staff. ( a lot higher when you correctly count all that are not working) Prices are up, the dollars value has dropped significantly. How is that a good thing?

This is called "bending the curve". Considering our main budget problem in the future is not that excessive entitlements have been handed out, but a problem of spiraling healthcare costs. This strategy is absolutely legitimate.
Health costs are a problem but the entitlements area larger problem imo. SS won't be around for the younger generation unless changes are made. How can anyone think SS would be sustainable when it started out it was 50 paying in to 1 receiving, now its closer to 3 to 1. The life expectancy was shorter back then too.
Spiraling healthcare costs are once again the fault of government making regulations that destroy the free market and stifle competition. Once again government interferes, prices go up, quality goes down. Explain away why the exact same drug can be had for a lot less across the border?

The U.S. doesn't have to make extreme cuts at all; You're falling for the "we must destroy it to fix it" doctrine that has been shot down by evidence repeatedly.
no I'm not. That is your misguided assumption. Don't misrepresent my point.
Extreme are the measures put in by government that has prolonged the horrible economy.

Truth is, our fiscal situation is horribly overstated; Our short term situation, especially(most of the "increased size of government" under Obama is actually a loss of revenue combined with increased safety net spending not some kind of government takeover).
The truth is our economic situation is dire. Businesses are unsure of the future so they do not invest. We know this for a fact. After Congress screwed around taking their time deciding who would get taxed, and what amount, businesses started up again up for the simple fact they knew what direction they were heading. Not necessarily they knew whatever was passed was going to be beneficial but they at least now knew what lay ahead.

Absolutely wrong. Case and point: What about all that government spending during the Great Depression and WW2? WW2 came around, government spends more than at any other time in hostory (compared tothe size of the economy) and the following decades were the best time in U.S. history.
Absolutely wrong. Case and point the economy during the War was HORRIBLE. It was only AFTER the war when the war time economic policies that STIFLED competition were lifted. It is well known that MANY government contracts were not competitive and bids were fixed. You cannot have competition that way. We know competition increases quality for the the consumer.

It is the Governments role to ensure fair play and it is the governments role to fight recessions. This comes down to idealogy, though. I'm not going to beat on this drum, as it's a waste of time.
According to the Constitution, they specific and enumerated powers. Enforce contracts, yes Manipulating and managing the economy, no.

Gas is a good indicator because gas prices were, in part, driving the commodity bubble. As Bernanke has pointed out, much of the increase in CPI is all gas prices. If you exclude gas prices, CPI is much closer to core inflation numbers. Now, I'm not saying some prices aren't going up (wheat, corn) or that Gas wont go up again - I'm saying that these price increases are not primarily driven by inflation (I mean, unless you can explain how gas went up 160% while the USD lost only 15% of it's value? Inflation, mathematically, cannot be responsible for the entire increase in prices...)
Dunno who you are saying said inflation is the cause for the entire increase.
Why exclude gas prices when they are an important cost to almost everyone?
Gas and food prices are very important to the consumer. BOTH of those are up over last year. The economy is worse off. Gas goes up $1 in 8 months and down .20 in two months is not good news .
Of course prices are driven by inflation. We know this, none are immune.
Dunno what period you are talking about? Over the last year gas didn't go up 160 percent. If gas was 270 last year and its 350 now, thats ~30 percent. 350/270

This is true, those with lower income are effected the most, but I actually posted a couple of articles in this thread about Wheat, corn, etc that basically say food prices would have gone up, and will continue to go up with or without QE because there are supply/demand imbalances; The world population is growing and this years crops are expected to be far below average... basic economics says prices go up when demand outpaces supply (which BTW is exactly what has been happening to gas prices in recent years... demand is outpacing supply).
Gas demand is not outstripping supply. People are driving less now. AND in summer months when people do drive more the prices go down. I haven't seen an oil shortage in quite some time. I've heard some try and say there is one like when a middle eastern country gets involved in unrest. Libya was a recent example. We saw no shortage of gas yet some tried to say otherwise.
When a product is manipulated the rules of the free market do not apply. We saw this with the housing drisis and we see it with the cost of a college education now.
 

jeff f

New Member
I am not a central planner. One day you'll learn to read and realize I am not a socialist or a commie; One day you'll realize that believing government has a role in life is different than being for "big government" or whatever it is that has your panties in a bunch. Maybe one day... I wont be holding my breath though.

Uhm yes, I completely understand the concept of shipping, etc. effecting food prices... My grocery bill is low; In all this time that gasoline and food have spiked, I've barely even noticed because gasoline and food take up such a small portion of my budget. You should really try to troll somewhere else, because you're failing pretty badly here.

no, lame... i aint talking about the "shipping". i am talking about the mining. ever mined coal, copper, gold, oil....you know, the stuff that makes stuff?

how about this, you ever tried to make the tools, dynomite, big ass fucking trucks to get that shit out of the ground so you can sit on that plastic stool to type?......nevermind, you have no idea how your life works.....but show us some charts.....
but hey, i am listening.....
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
I am not a central planner. One day you'll learn to read and realize I am not a socialist or a commie; One day you'll realize that believing government has a role in life is different than being for "big government" or whatever it is that has your panties in a bunch. Maybe one day... I wont be holding my breath though.

Uhm yes, I completely understand the concept of shipping, etc. effecting food prices... My grocery bill is low; In all this time that gasoline and food have spiked, I've barely even noticed because gasoline and food take up such a small portion of my budget. You should really try to troll somewhere else, because you're failing pretty badly here.
Remember it's not about you, it's about what is.
 
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