Gold-good investment or hype.
- Thread starter doc111
- Start date
CrackerJax
New Member
Yah....I'm so ignorant I'm sitting pretty....unlike you.
I'm so ignorant that while ppl lost half the value in their houses I was tripling my equity.
I'm so ignorant as to protect my assets from the wreckage which is coming.... I know you don't see it. Not all can.
You've been warned.
WTF CJ are you really that much of a 90 pound weakling? I can hold 1.2 million dollars worth of gold in my hands, sure it weighs close to 70 pounds, but I sure as hell don't need a truck to haul it around. If I want 100K worth, its going to weigh less than 7 pounds. You don't really think 7 pounds is that much do you? Do you use a truck to carry your briefcase around? The safe to house it would not have to be more than 6 inches cubed. A 2000 pound cube of gold would be 18 inches on all sides.
Real Estate is great and all, I happen to own multiple properties myself, the only problem is that you can't take it with you.
Stocks and equities are great instruments also, you may make good profit with smart moves, but in the end its all just denominated in Dollars here in the states. Dollars are a fiction, they aren't worth diddly squat, they are backed by nothing but a statute that says they must be accepted for all debts. Put a bit of your money into some Canadian or Asian markets too so if the dollar does default you arent sitting around holding millions of dollars of stocks that are worth jack squat.
Gold may be rather stable in Dollars right now, but in other currencies its price keeps going up, just as the value of the dollar compared to other currencies is also going up. They convert gold to other currencies too, its accepted everywhere you want to go. Its better than Visa in some ways, cuz you don't need a telephone line to do the transaction.
And the big hidden tax AKA Inflation will take all your savings away.untill then its penny pinch and store it away
Mortgage delinquencies tick higher in 4th-qtr 2009
TransUnion finds rise in mortgage delinquencies in 4th-quarter 2009; forecasts further rise
By Eileen Aj Connelly, AP Personal Finance Writer , On Tuesday February 16, 2010, 3:57 pm EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- The percentage of homeowners late with mortgage payments hit another record during the last three months of 2009, and the pace at which they fell behind took a turn for the worse, a new report says.
For the fourth quarter, 6.89 percent of mortgage payments were 60 or more days past due, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. That's up from 4.58 percent in the final three months of 2008. The previous record delinquency rate was 6.25 percent in the third quarter of 2009.
The latest report marked the 12th consecutive quarter -- equal to three full years -- that delinquency rates have risen from the previous year.
More worrisome was that the quarter-to-quarter trend swung higher after declining in each of the previous three quarters.
The fourth-quarter uptick was in part due normal seasonal spending shifts, said FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services business unit. Consumers are more likely to have trouble paying bills during the last few months of the year, as they run low on cash because of holiday spending.
But even accounting for normal season patterns, there is some reason to be concerned about the pace of increase moving higher, Guarrera said. "To see continuing growth in the first quarter would certainly raise an eyebrow," he said.
He noted that many homeowners still have adjustable rate mortgages written in late 2006 or early 2007 due to reset to higher rates in coming months. That could drive foreclosures even higher, especially in areas where home prices have fallen to the point where values are lower than mortgages. "We're not out of the woods yet," Guarrera said.
TransUnion tracks mortgages that are two months past due as an indicator of potential foreclosure, because of the difficulty involved in coming up with three payments to bring an account current. The data is culled from the company's database of 27 million consumer records.
The agency said the delinquency rate stayed highest in Nevada, at 16.2 percent, and Florida, at 14.9 percent. Arizona and California, the other two states hit hardest by the housing crisis, were third and fourth, at 11.3 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
The highest growth rates compared with the third quarter were in the District of Columbia, Louisiana and Delaware.
The lowest delinquencies remain in North Dakota, at 1.8 percent, and South Dakota, at 2.5 percent.
There were some bright spots in the report. While no states that showed delinquency rate improvement in the fourth quarter, TransUnion said there were improvements in the areas around 38 cities. That reflects other signs that the economic recovery will be tied to local housing prices and unemployment rates, TransUnion said.
The average national mortgage debt per borrower also increased to $193,690 in the latest quarter from $192,789 in the fourth quarter of 2008. "We've said all along that home values have got to improve in order to see some stabilization in terms of mortgage delinquencies," Guarrera said. An increase in the amount of the average mortgage debt indicates rising home prices.
TransUnion expects foreclosures to continue rising throughout this year, peaking between 7.5 percent and 8 percent. The situation will be worst in Nevada, where as many as one in five mortgage borrowers may be delinquent by the middle of the year.
TransUnion finds rise in mortgage delinquencies in 4th-quarter 2009; forecasts further rise
- Buzz up! 4
By Eileen Aj Connelly, AP Personal Finance Writer , On Tuesday February 16, 2010, 3:57 pm EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- The percentage of homeowners late with mortgage payments hit another record during the last three months of 2009, and the pace at which they fell behind took a turn for the worse, a new report says.
For the fourth quarter, 6.89 percent of mortgage payments were 60 or more days past due, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. That's up from 4.58 percent in the final three months of 2008. The previous record delinquency rate was 6.25 percent in the third quarter of 2009.
The latest report marked the 12th consecutive quarter -- equal to three full years -- that delinquency rates have risen from the previous year.
More worrisome was that the quarter-to-quarter trend swung higher after declining in each of the previous three quarters.
The fourth-quarter uptick was in part due normal seasonal spending shifts, said FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services business unit. Consumers are more likely to have trouble paying bills during the last few months of the year, as they run low on cash because of holiday spending.
But even accounting for normal season patterns, there is some reason to be concerned about the pace of increase moving higher, Guarrera said. "To see continuing growth in the first quarter would certainly raise an eyebrow," he said.
He noted that many homeowners still have adjustable rate mortgages written in late 2006 or early 2007 due to reset to higher rates in coming months. That could drive foreclosures even higher, especially in areas where home prices have fallen to the point where values are lower than mortgages. "We're not out of the woods yet," Guarrera said.
TransUnion tracks mortgages that are two months past due as an indicator of potential foreclosure, because of the difficulty involved in coming up with three payments to bring an account current. The data is culled from the company's database of 27 million consumer records.
The agency said the delinquency rate stayed highest in Nevada, at 16.2 percent, and Florida, at 14.9 percent. Arizona and California, the other two states hit hardest by the housing crisis, were third and fourth, at 11.3 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
The highest growth rates compared with the third quarter were in the District of Columbia, Louisiana and Delaware.
The lowest delinquencies remain in North Dakota, at 1.8 percent, and South Dakota, at 2.5 percent.
There were some bright spots in the report. While no states that showed delinquency rate improvement in the fourth quarter, TransUnion said there were improvements in the areas around 38 cities. That reflects other signs that the economic recovery will be tied to local housing prices and unemployment rates, TransUnion said.
The average national mortgage debt per borrower also increased to $193,690 in the latest quarter from $192,789 in the fourth quarter of 2008. "We've said all along that home values have got to improve in order to see some stabilization in terms of mortgage delinquencies," Guarrera said. An increase in the amount of the average mortgage debt indicates rising home prices.
TransUnion expects foreclosures to continue rising throughout this year, peaking between 7.5 percent and 8 percent. The situation will be worst in Nevada, where as many as one in five mortgage borrowers may be delinquent by the middle of the year.
CrackerJax
New Member
Real estate is .... over. There are still tons of bad loans out there... and like an ocean of red....it will come to us in waves. I have already mentioned that Congress is gearing Fred & Fannie to CONTINUE the practices which brought us all this in the first place.
I don't see any point in keeping equity in ur home at this point. There is no telling when the market will return, but it isn't anytime soon. There are always niche markets...and you can only judge....but waiting for the value to return to your property can't compare to using the equity wisely in another investment vehicle.
If real estate does truly bust out....it's best to bust out with no equity. The bank doesn't have much incentive to recover. They seek value first.
I don't see any point in keeping equity in ur home at this point. There is no telling when the market will return, but it isn't anytime soon. There are always niche markets...and you can only judge....but waiting for the value to return to your property can't compare to using the equity wisely in another investment vehicle.
If real estate does truly bust out....it's best to bust out with no equity. The bank doesn't have much incentive to recover. They seek value first.
The only incentive the banks have is to lend to the government at guaranteed 5% and borrow from inter-agency at a bit less than 1%, leverage that spread up by the magical money creation biz called fractional banking by ten fold and the banks are making quite a nice amount of profit lending to Uncle Sam. Of course lending to us Shmucks at 7-8% will double that profit, but we might default, or the small business we run might default.
Big Moves Ahead for Gold and Silver!
Feb 15 2010 3:23PM
The blue arrows point to bottoms in the 7 8 week gold cycle. The last arrow points to the bottom in a pullback that covered 2 of the 7 8 week gold cycles and lasted 44 days (from Dec 3rd to Feb 5th).
It was the 9th pullback in gold of 10% or more since the current bull market began, and before this last one, the longest of these pullbacks lasted 46 days. Thus at day #44 time was up.
According to market expert W. D. Gann: when time is up price will turn.
The fact that the commercial gold traders have just reduced their net short position from 282,000 four weeks ago to the current 213,000 positions lends credence to the expectation that price bottomed during week # 6 of the latest cycle. (Bottoms sometimes arrive a week early, and sometimes a week late).
It remains now for gold to rise above the green arrow. Once that is accomplished, the next bullish cycle will be underway and price will then be able to challenge the December top.
Happy trading!
Gold in Euros is About to Go Parabolic
Feb 16 2010 11:52AM
How can we tell if a market is about to go parabolic? Trendlines are one way. Another way is to look at the length of corrections. How long is it taking the market to correct? Are the corrections becoming shorter and shorter?
In the case of Gold/Euro, we see a market that is ready to go parabolic. The market has had four major corrections and each one has been shorter then the last. See the chart below.
I should mention that I am looking for a bounce in the Euro and some US$ weakness. While we should get a decent rally in the Euro, I doubt it affects the prognosis for Euro/Gold.
Gold/Foreign Currencies compared to Gold in US$
Here we show Gold/UDN on top of Gold. Gold/UDN is Gold against the currencies in the US$ index. As we’ve noted before, at key points in this bull market Gold/foreign currencies has been leading Gold. Here we are just showing the last few years.
Notice how Gold/UDN made its major breakout in January while Gold achieved its breakout in September. If the relationship continues then we’d expect Gold to trade in a tight range for about four months and then begin a new advance to new highs.
The strongest moves in Gold occur when the market is rising against all currencies. While this is a “duh” statement, I bet most analysts neglect to track how Gold is performing against the major currencies. We are tracking it and you can see how bullish Gold/Euro looks and how Gold/UDN is showing a positive divergence compared to Gold in US$. With Gold so strong against all currencies, it will not fall to $950-$1000. In periods of US$ strength, Gold is holding up better and better as its gaining significant strength against the Euro and the other currencies.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Trendsman@trendsman.com
http://www.thedailygold.com
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CrackerJax
New Member
Here's a very simple chart of gold for the last ten years. This shows very clearly why Gold is not the investment of choice for prime profit.
Has it yielded profits? You bet...and that's great. That's why everyone who is serious about amassing a portfolio includes a small base of gold.
But look at the growth over ten years..... 267% Good, but hardly stellar. There are a few spikes in there over a fairly brief periods, and it is tempting to think you could have bought at the low and sold at the high, but that rarely happens. You have to be in for the long haul to faithfully get the spikes. But then there's the long periods of floundering..... it all averages out to a fairly safe upward growth investment.
But a savvy investor can match that entire 267% in a single year ... or less, with other options ... like stocks, futures, IPO'S (my fav
). ==============================================================
On a side note, I'll throw out another good investment which is becoming more available. Tax liens. Like money in the bank. Better in fact. One man gathers what another man spills. It's beginning to spill everywhere.
It's not enough to recognize an opportunity when it passes by. One must be prepared ahead of time to take true advantage.
prepared in advanced (always prepared)
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Quicklist9:48 When will America Collapse? .....answers from ...
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PaulRevere2012
Added to Quicklist9:48 When will America Collapse? .....answers from ...
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PaulRevere2012
CrackerJax
New Member
When opportunity knocks ... you don't have time to put on your pants. 
CrackerJax
New Member
Europe..... where's the tea parties? Total submission to the state.
Jobless rate? Don't worry...Obama is going to hire a million ppl....to take the census part time....that'll fix everything.
Total submission to the state.Jobless rate? Don't worry...Obama is going to hire a million ppl....to take the census part time....that'll fix everything.
Just wanted to mention one note about real estate investing which is that there is a big difference between real estate investing and owning your own residence.
If you are stable and planning on living in your house for a long time there is almost no better investment than paying off the house in which you live. When you pay on your house at least a part of your payment goes into equity whereas when you rent all of your money goes into someone elses pocket. Best of all though is once it is paid off you are now living rent free.
It is almost never a good idea to pull equity out of your residence to invest in other vehicles. For example if you have a 6% mortage rate then you would need to generate 12% return (6% for the mortage + 3% for inflation + 3% for taxes on the investment) just to break even on the investment.
Also remember the debtor is slave to the lender so always try to get out of debt before trying to build wealth.
If you are stable and planning on living in your house for a long time there is almost no better investment than paying off the house in which you live. When you pay on your house at least a part of your payment goes into equity whereas when you rent all of your money goes into someone elses pocket. Best of all though is once it is paid off you are now living rent free.
It is almost never a good idea to pull equity out of your residence to invest in other vehicles. For example if you have a 6% mortage rate then you would need to generate 12% return (6% for the mortage + 3% for inflation + 3% for taxes on the investment) just to break even on the investment.
Also remember the debtor is slave to the lender so always try to get out of debt before trying to build wealth.
CrackerJax
New Member
Hey, you sound like a Fannie mae brochure...
Maybe so but to be honest I personally have no idea why fannie mae was ever created. They seem like a useless middleman in the whole scheme of home loans. It seems like if your bank sees you as a qualified and sound person to loan money for a house why would they need to sell off your mortage. If the bank needs more capital to make more loans isn't that what the sale of stock is for?
Big P
Well-Known Member
they are caught between a shit and a sweat . if they raise interest rates the interest paid on the national debt will go up.also stall a faltering economy .if they raise interest rates as much as 2% all of the moneys in the US collected in tax's will go to just pay the interest on the debt. the country is flat ass broke and is running on borrowed time and money.
if they dont raise interest rates they are going to have WORSE hyper inflation.
the wholesale prices you mentioned earlier is just the start of inflation..watch it catch fire and burn out of control and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it once it is on fire.
bernake and obama are the match.
its to late to put the geni back into the bottle. the 12 trillion has already been spent.
if they dont raise interest rates they are going to have WORSE hyper inflation.
the wholesale prices you mentioned earlier is just the start of inflation..watch it catch fire and burn out of control and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it once it is on fire.
bernake and obama are the match.
its to late to put the geni back into the bottle. the 12 trillion has already been spent.