$$in growing large

So, I live in a legal state and have enough $ and land to set up a large grow. Testing the waters to see if there is enough profit to do this venture.... been growing "stuff" for 25+ years so I'm not a green horn.
I have been looking into applying for the commercial growers licence... 5K + but that isn't all that bad. Now if I can just get with the proper dispensaries.
Any one in Oregon want to do a joint venture? You will need the capital to back your 1/2

Curious if you decided to go ahead with your license? I've been researching the OR market and here is some interesting info. relevant to OR I've pieced together based on analyzing the WA market:

Here is a very relevant paper on a study the University of Washington did:

http://www.cannalawblog.com/washington-state-cannabis-report/

Washington currently has 10 million potential square feet of total producer canopy space allocated for all cannabis markets. I'm not sure exactly how much of that total canopy space is currently licensed & producing though,, that's just how much they have "set aside."

Based off that report the total canopy needed for current WA med cannabis market is 2 million square feet. The total market is estimated at 1/3 medical, 1/3 recreational, and 1/3 illicit, which would require 6 million square feet of total canopy square footage to service.

Thus, at 10 million potential square feet WA appears to have about 40% more grow space than needed to service all their markets.

Next, relating this to the OR market. Oregon says there are no limits to how many producers can obtain licenses. If you go to the following link you can see there are currently 670 Oregon producers who have submitted applications:

http://www.oregon.gov/olcc/marijuana/Documents/mj_app_stats_by_county.pdf

If 1/2 of these are tier 1 (20 thousand square feet maximum) and half are tier 2 (40 thousand square feet maximum) that's already ~18 million square feet of total canopy space. That's triple the canopy space needed to service the WA markets, nearly double the total canopy square footage WA has, and likely over the next year there will be a lot more producers applying as they secure funding.

Washington - 6.9 million population
Oregon - 4.1 million population

That also doesn't factor in the more lax individual non-producer laws in OR. Any individual who wants can grow 6 plants.

Unfortunately I feel there are gonna be a ton of unhappy OR producers in the next couple of years as the OR market appears to be headed towards massive oversupply. Also consider Oregon producers were already struggling before all these producers came online

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-with-legalization--making-money-from-marijuana-in-oregon-could-be-tough-190159408.html

The place to be IMO is in the service industries: packaging, edibles, concentrates etc. The producers that thrive are gonna be the ones that can keep their costs down and cash flow at very low prices while still producing high quality product. You would have an advantage in that you already have your own land and likely don't have 100 investors all looking for their cut. Interested in your thoughts.

Money isn't in the product it is in the seeds. You can't produce higher quality indoor for cheaper than me I use supplemental lighting through opaque glass and I have always had a zen for keeping costs down. Even if you stood on my business for a decade taking a loss to undercut me I will just slow down but I won't disappear. When you raise prices I will come back in at stupid low zero profit prices. I'm one of those assholes who make a decent living marijuana is my hobby.

The money isn't in the product as I said it is in the seeds. You need a ton of land to grow out thousands of pheonos cherry picking traits, crossing back and selecting until you find a golden nugget. When you have that then you produce the seeds and you have an unstopable business model. I would love to do this with you but I don't have the capital for that. You see how I am cleanly cut out of that market because of my poorness?

I believe what you mention is the future and that is controlled greenhouse growing. Indoor is just way too expensive and the popular opinion (whether real or not) is outdoor affects quality negatively. Sunlight provides better growth than any amount of artificial light and only in a controlled greenhouse can one take full advantage of that and keep costs down. Even better is greenhouse with some supplemental lighting.

But anyway, based on some observations entrants into the OR rec market are often leveraged up with investor debt, land, and equipment so they won't be able to sell cheap. The guy who owns his own property and grows in a controlled greenhouse will have a big advantage IMO

The entire industry could learn a lot from regular farmers (non-cannabis) on controlling costs IMO.

So basically I feel that big gov has turned folks like myself into something like " Micro brew ".... going to bow out of the large scale, for now.

DG1959 said:

So basically I feel that big gov has turned folks like myself into something like " Micro brew ".... going to bow out of the large scale, for now.

Click to expand...

I think more or less it's like 600 microbreweries opening up in the state all the sudden. lol There will be some bigger companies that come in and put up 10,000 sq. ft greenhouses with supplemental light but they'd have to hold multiple licenses to scale up from that. It looks like most of the license apps are your regular mom and pop outdoor grows in southern oregon - 111 producer apps in jackson county alone.

DG1959 said:

So basically I feel that big gov has turned folks like myself into something like " Micro brew ".... going to bow out of the large scale, for now.

Click to expand...

Since I dissuaded you yesterday I started to think about the stories I hear when I let someone into my circle. They all haven't had great herb for a reasonable price ever in their lives. I think I am wrong about there not being money in product and actually I think the time might be ripe. But you need to control both sides of it not only producing but you need a chain of collectives under an llc also.

You know when In & Out came along there was already every kind of Hamburger joint and they couldn't really compete with them. So In & Out didn't try to compete they wanted to make the best hamburger bar none. Now In & Out they don't have salads, they don't have apple pie. Do you know what they make? Hamburgers Animal Style, and french fries sliced from whole potatoes! Want a chicken sandwich for your daughter? Go someplace else first because they just have burgers. They pay their employees 10 dollars an hour to start, or when they started they did not sure about now. Can you imagine what their business models looked like? Probably not stellar.