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Accounting Tweak Could Save Fed From Losses
Published: Friday, 21 Jan 2011 | 4:58 PM ET
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By: Reuters
Concerns that the Federal Reserve could suffer losses on its massive bond holdings may have driven the central bank to adopt a little-noticed accounting change with huge implications: it makes insolvency much less likely.
The significant shift was tucked quietly into the Fed's weekly report on its balance sheet and phrased in such technical terms that it was not even reported by financial media when originally announced on Jan. 6.
But the new rules have slowly begun to catch the attention of market analysts. Many are at once surprised that the Fed can set its own guidelines, and also relieved that the remote but dangerous possibility that the world's most powerful central bank might need to ask the U.S. Treasury or its member banks for money is now more likely to be averted.
"Could the Fed go broke? The answer to this question was 'Yes,' but is now 'No,'" said Raymond Stone, managing director at Stone & McCarthy in Princeton, New Jersey. "An accounting methodology change at the central bank will allow the Fed to incur losses, even substantial losses, without eroding its capital."
The change essentially allows the Fed to denote losses by the various regional reserve banks that make up the Fed system as a liability to the Treasury rather than a hit to its capital. It would then simply direct future profits from Fed operations toward that liability.
This enhances transparency by providing clearer, more frequent, snapshots of the central bank's finances, analysts say. The bonus: the number can now turn negative without affecting the central bank's underlying financial condition.
"Any future losses the Fed may incur will now show up as a negative liability as opposed to a reduction in Fed capital, thereby making a negative capital situation technically impossible," said Brian Smedley, a rates strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and a former New York Fed staffer.
"The timing of the change is not coincidental, as politicians and market participants alike have expressed concerns since the announcement (of a second round of asset buys) about the possibility of Fed 'insolvency' in a scenario where interest rates rise significantly," Smedley and his colleague Priya Misra wrote in a research note.
READ THE COMMENTS YOU WILL NOT FIND ONE GOOD ONE
COMMENTS
Brophy | Jan 21, 2011 05:08 PM ET
Accounting tricks do not prevent insolvency.
1. The Fed is monetizing the US debt to keep interest low. Rising interest will hit the debt like a bomb.
2. The US debt is growing, not falling, at present interest of 0.
3. Taxes can never cover the US deficits, let alone the US debt.
4. This fiasco will not end well.
Report Abuse
ELTUT | Jan 21, 2011 05:10 PM ET
there is nothing more American than "creative accounting", anyone in the financial sector and remotely affiliated with gov't will testify to that fact.
the worst that the human race as to offer is in charge of the state, bank on it!
Report Abuse
RenderingPlant | Jan 21, 2011 05:28 PM ET
There is a solution to the problem that could be implemented. If the scenario occurs where the FED places dollars on the Treasury liability ledger, the Treasury will issue United States Notes with a RED SEAL into public circulation. The FED, abhoring competetion, can buy the RED SEAL notes back from the Traesury and have them destroyed. This keeps the FED honest because the U.S. Notes will be in circulation for all to see. The more U.S. Notes the more the FED owes!
Good idea, huh?
Report Abuse
TxChristopher | Jan 21, 2011 05:53 PM ET
Wish I could get my bank to mark negatives in my accounts as "negative liabilities". Can I get that for the next few years please?
Report Abuse
DJSMPS | Jan 21, 2011 05:56 PM ET
I just love the "new normal". I wish my tax bill could be a liability on my neighbor,
Report Abuse
oh-sheet | Jan 21, 2011 05:57 PM ET
Thats nothin.. you should see how many private citizens are gaming the system.. It's how we roll now.. "New Normal" lol it's the madoff effect!
Report Abuse
milehi-bones | Jan 21, 2011 06:11 PM ET
TICK TOCK!!! Why fear the post WWII axis of evil, or Saudi funded Bin Laden robots or the Chinese economic CANCER attacking North America and Western Europe; when we have our own home grown terrorist - Federal Reserve Mafia
Report Abuse
rugby11 | Jan 21, 2011 06:11 PM ET
The shocking thing is the FED actually disclosed it. Kind of reminds me of all the off balance sheet assets/liabilities the big banks hold. Nothing like a big recovery with no transparency!
Report Abuse
oh-sheet | Jan 21, 2011 06:14 PM ET
QE 3 starting to be sculpted and in the pipe line since the stimulus runs out in a few months.. GO FRIGGIN LONG! Now!
Report Abuse
sabra1 | Jan 21, 2011 06:16 PM ET
let's make the rules as we go along! this is all the proof you need, that they have lost all control of this great manipulated ponzi scheme!
Report Abuse
Published: Friday, 21 Jan 2011 | 4:58 PM ET
By: Reuters
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Concerns that the Federal Reserve could suffer losses on its massive bond holdings may have driven the central bank to adopt a little-noticed accounting change with huge implications: it makes insolvency much less likely.
Tetra Images | Getty Images
United States Federal ReserveThe significant shift was tucked quietly into the Fed's weekly report on its balance sheet and phrased in such technical terms that it was not even reported by financial media when originally announced on Jan. 6.
But the new rules have slowly begun to catch the attention of market analysts. Many are at once surprised that the Fed can set its own guidelines, and also relieved that the remote but dangerous possibility that the world's most powerful central bank might need to ask the U.S. Treasury or its member banks for money is now more likely to be averted.
"Could the Fed go broke? The answer to this question was 'Yes,' but is now 'No,'" said Raymond Stone, managing director at Stone & McCarthy in Princeton, New Jersey. "An accounting methodology change at the central bank will allow the Fed to incur losses, even substantial losses, without eroding its capital."
The change essentially allows the Fed to denote losses by the various regional reserve banks that make up the Fed system as a liability to the Treasury rather than a hit to its capital. It would then simply direct future profits from Fed operations toward that liability.
This enhances transparency by providing clearer, more frequent, snapshots of the central bank's finances, analysts say. The bonus: the number can now turn negative without affecting the central bank's underlying financial condition.
"Any future losses the Fed may incur will now show up as a negative liability as opposed to a reduction in Fed capital, thereby making a negative capital situation technically impossible," said Brian Smedley, a rates strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and a former New York Fed staffer.
"The timing of the change is not coincidental, as politicians and market participants alike have expressed concerns since the announcement (of a second round of asset buys) about the possibility of Fed 'insolvency' in a scenario where interest rates rise significantly," Smedley and his colleague Priya Misra wrote in a research note.
READ THE COMMENTS YOU WILL NOT FIND ONE GOOD ONE
COMMENTS
Brophy | Jan 21, 2011 05:08 PM ET
Accounting tricks do not prevent insolvency.
1. The Fed is monetizing the US debt to keep interest low. Rising interest will hit the debt like a bomb.
2. The US debt is growing, not falling, at present interest of 0.
3. Taxes can never cover the US deficits, let alone the US debt.
4. This fiasco will not end well.
Report Abuse
ELTUT | Jan 21, 2011 05:10 PM ET
there is nothing more American than "creative accounting", anyone in the financial sector and remotely affiliated with gov't will testify to that fact.
the worst that the human race as to offer is in charge of the state, bank on it!
Report Abuse
RenderingPlant | Jan 21, 2011 05:28 PM ET
There is a solution to the problem that could be implemented. If the scenario occurs where the FED places dollars on the Treasury liability ledger, the Treasury will issue United States Notes with a RED SEAL into public circulation. The FED, abhoring competetion, can buy the RED SEAL notes back from the Traesury and have them destroyed. This keeps the FED honest because the U.S. Notes will be in circulation for all to see. The more U.S. Notes the more the FED owes!
Good idea, huh?
Report Abuse
TxChristopher | Jan 21, 2011 05:53 PM ET
Wish I could get my bank to mark negatives in my accounts as "negative liabilities". Can I get that for the next few years please?
Report Abuse
DJSMPS | Jan 21, 2011 05:56 PM ET
I just love the "new normal". I wish my tax bill could be a liability on my neighbor,
Report Abuse
oh-sheet | Jan 21, 2011 05:57 PM ET
Thats nothin.. you should see how many private citizens are gaming the system.. It's how we roll now.. "New Normal" lol it's the madoff effect!
Report Abuse
milehi-bones | Jan 21, 2011 06:11 PM ET
TICK TOCK!!! Why fear the post WWII axis of evil, or Saudi funded Bin Laden robots or the Chinese economic CANCER attacking North America and Western Europe; when we have our own home grown terrorist - Federal Reserve Mafia
Report Abuse
rugby11 | Jan 21, 2011 06:11 PM ET
The shocking thing is the FED actually disclosed it. Kind of reminds me of all the off balance sheet assets/liabilities the big banks hold. Nothing like a big recovery with no transparency!
Report Abuse
oh-sheet | Jan 21, 2011 06:14 PM ET
QE 3 starting to be sculpted and in the pipe line since the stimulus runs out in a few months.. GO FRIGGIN LONG! Now!
Report Abuse
sabra1 | Jan 21, 2011 06:16 PM ET
let's make the rules as we go along! this is all the proof you need, that they have lost all control of this great manipulated ponzi scheme!
Report Abuse