MMPR Grow op: Small Scale

Kootenaygirl

Active Member
Bedrocan irradiates all of it's foreign cannabis.
Sure hope tweed does all the hershy flavors, sense of humor may have been detected on the HC website with "Hi@tweed".
No marihuana for sale though.
 

woodsmaneh!

Well-Known Member
Bedrocan irradiates all of it's foreign cannabis.
Sure hope tweed does all the hershy flavors, sense of humor may have been detected on the HC website with "Hi@tweed".
No marihuana for sale though.
Bedrocan imports all their weed from the parent company in NL, I doubt they will grow in Canada, why create jobs here when they can do it at home in the NL. So much for Harper creating jobs.I have read that irradiated weed is not a good thing as it does change the free radicals and that is not a good thing. If anyone is an expert please enlighten me more. It's a cheap way to kill molds but you can do that by raising temps to 120 to 140 for a period of time depending on the mold. Do this during drying.
 

Kron3007

Well-Known Member
Bedrocan imports all their weed from the parent company in NL, I doubt they will grow in Canada, why create jobs here when they can do it at home in the NL. So much for Harper creating jobs.I have read that irradiated weed is not a good thing as it does change some compounds, anyone else read that. I'll look for it. It's a cheap way to kill molds but you can do that by raising temps to 120 to 140 for a period of time depending on the mold. Do this during drying.
Bedrocan says that they will be starting to grow in Canada, but time will tell.

As for the irradiation, there is some evidence that it has some negative effects on the chemistry. As for the heating, that will also have a negative impact, it is better to dry at lower temps. In my opinion irradiation only promotes sloppy production as you can get away with it, and any of the microbial toxins produced before irradiation will remain (they only make you test for aflatoxin, but there are others....). Just as milling your product will encourage including leaf etc.

The best way to keep your microbe counts down are through good production practices and sanitation. I suspect that a large number of patients will desire non-irradiated medicine, so it will be up to us (non-irradiating producers) to bring attention to this practice (and milling....).
 

leaffan

Well-Known Member
So Tweed has 10,000 plants growing before they got their licence? How did they do that? Any ideas?
I would assume that they had their licence prior to their listing on HC website. I believe there are a few licences that have been issued but not listed yet. An LP can purchase plants from approved sources, including DGs from the MMAR.
 

Icarus85

Member
I think how it works is you can't get listed on the health Canada site until you have product available which Tweed plans on having within the next week. I would believe there are more companies approved with product growing just nothing ready yet....
 

Kron3007

Well-Known Member
I agree that TC will be good for preservation, sharing, and long term storage, I don't think it will play to much of role with production in the short term for me.

The related materials for a simple cannabinoid analytically lab would be far less than the cost of the GC/FID itself. I wont be using a fume hood, I wont be using hydrogen as a carrier gas, and If I did decide to use a hood they are $2-$3K used, for overkill size and capability. The amount of flammable goods used and there exposure rates are minor, an analytical balance is $200-$400 low end, flammable storage $100-$300, glass, tools, supplies and consumables are maybe $100-$200/month, standards are $90 - $150 for the common cannabinoids.

Like you say it depends on each LP's situation and requirements if they want or would benefit from having in house capabilities.
I thought a fume hood would be a basic safety requirement for a lab, given that you will be working with various solvents. I'm not sure about commercial labs, but if you haven't already you should check the regulations. Either way, good luck, maybe you can run some samples for me....

Regarding the TC lab, that is why we are holding off on it. We see the benefits but they will be more important down the road and we will wait until we are on our feet (if we get there....). That being said, tissue culture for routine propagation may be a good option. It is used commercially in a lot of crops (that can be propagated easily), so the economics must be reasonably sound. Always more than one way to skin a cat.
 

leaffan

Well-Known Member
Its at the discretion of the LP as to when they want HC to officially list them on the HC website.
 

woodsmaneh!

Well-Known Member
Its at the discretion of the LP as to when they want HC to officially list them on the HC website.
yes that's true.

There are 9 companies approved by HC and only 5 are listed.


This is for food but applies to spices too in Canada and it applys to weed.
[h=2]9. What changes to food are caused by irradiation?[/h]Irradiation causes minor chemical modifications, similar to cooking, and some irradiated foods may taste slightly different. Food irradiation does not lead to change in the food that, from a toxicological point of view, would have an adverse effect on human health. Food irradiation, at permitted levels, does not diminish the nutritional value of the food. Any living cells in the food, including potentially harmful bacteria, are killed or damaged.
[h=2]10. Does treatment by irradiation guarantee food safety?[/h]No. Nothing can guarantee food safety, but food irradiation greatly reduces bacteria and other microorganisms that may be present in food. Irradiated food must still be handled, stored, and cooked properly like all other foods. The rules of safe food handling - proper sanitation, packaging, storage and preparation - still need be followed.
Irradiation cannot be used to restore food that is already spoiled. If food looks, smells or tastes bad before irradiation, it will still look, smell and taste bad after irradiation.
 

ispice

Well-Known Member
Irradiating negatively effects terpenes, which are paramount. I am not sure how irradiating became an approved method of pest control for cannabis and why it isnt held to the same standard as other methods? I would put a large wager that Canni-Med will be the only one irradiating, maybe a big pharma co if they ever get involved directly, but 99% of LP's wont.
 

BiznassMan

New Member
Hello All,
New member here, I too went thru the entire thread yesterday and have to say its the best source of information I have come across ($300/hr consultants didnt have all this info). Anyways, I no nothing about MJ (I can hear the gasps behind my screen), nor do I really need to, my experience lies on the business side of things. Im a new PR in Canada, and worked on WallStreet in NY and London for over 10yrs (you think the underground MJ business is shady? you havent seen anything like I have), I moved to Van Isle recently and have been running #'s and refining a business plan for a team I put together (very, very senior Horticulturalist w/15+ yrs doing MJ consulting and managing large scale greenhouses, and an ex-grower I trust). The capital part and business plan is pretty straightforward, I have been fortunate to have both seed $ and investors who are willing to add capital if need be. While I dont know much about MJ, I know a good deal about suppy & demand and managing risk. The aspect that concerns me is the excess supply that will flow into the market in the coming months. Let me give you just a back of the envelope type calculation of buyers & sellers.

Buyers: ~40,000 prescriptions. Of those ~70% are on disability or lower income folks. Those who currently get their "medicine" from the current system pay little to nothing for their daily dose (most likely grossed up to 5-10g /day just to have a little extra to to sell to friends w/out prescriptions to pay for the whole process , or simply traded to a CC for their own consumption). So to be conservative, lets say of those 70% of patients, 50% of those will somehow come up with a way to purchase their ACTUAL personal use (5g/day to be safe..$1,140 month @ $7.60/g) on the open market, the other 50% will grow 1-4 plants themselves or have a funny uncle do it for them or maybe just buy on the BM. Now lets say the other 30% of your buyers all are well off and can pay any price for their medicine (same 5g/day, $1,140/month @ $7.60). Where does that leave us? 26,000 customers((40k x .3 + 28k x .5)) paying $1,140 month for 5g/day, thereby consuming 47.5k KG of MJ.

Sellers: As we just heard, Tweed was just authorized to produce 15k KG of MJ per year. There are 4 other growers already with very similar size licenses (but lets say 10k KG each to be safe, 40k KG combined). There are approx 300 LP in the pipeline right now, lets say that just 30% get approved (90), those that get approved are just small time guys, lets say 100lb/month or 1.2k KG/yr. Thats 108k KG/yr. So total we are at 163k KG/yr in production.

Now you will say, "yeah, but they cant produce that much right away" and your correct, but they are going to scale up as they get people into the pipeline(and they can scale faster and cheaper than almost all the sub 20k sq ft guys). The thing is that the Pipeline is at least 3.5X bigger than the market!! That is why scale is going to be soo important in this business. If your business model doesnt work @ $4/g you should really be asking yourself some tough questions. I get the whole idea that people pay for premium product, but look at your customers, really look at them, if you opened their fridge at home, you going to find the fancy craft beer in there or the cans of Molson (i have been told thats what Canadiens love to drink? )

Im not trying to piss on anyone's parade, but the real kicker here is the recreational legalization front. If you dont think that happens in the next two years, you might be in the wrong business. But thats just my two cents. Would love to know why people think prices will be in the $7-10 range. I get that the medical users will grown @ 30% yr, but even that doesnt do you much good for 10yrs. And given the reception from most doctors I know (only 4 granted), its going to be hard to get growth larger than that.

All that being said, we are still doing our homework and have some plans in place, anyone on Van Isle want to hook up and brainstorm Im up for it.
 

leaffan

Well-Known Member
Doesn't irradiated foods have to have the irradiated label on the packaging? I thought I read that on the HC website. If yes, shouldn't that apply to Cannimed too?
 

leaffan

Well-Known Member
Hello All,
New member here, I too went thru the entire thread yesterday and have to say its the best source of information I have come across ($300/hr consultants didnt have all this info). Anyways, I no nothing about MJ (I can hear the gasps behind my screen), nor do I really need to, my experience lies on the business side of things. Im a new PR in Canada, and worked on WallStreet in NY and London for over 10yrs (you think the underground MJ business is shady? you havent seen anything like I have), I moved to Van Isle recently and have been running #'s and refining a business plan for a team I put together (very, very senior Horticulturalist w/15+ yrs doing MJ consulting and managing large scale greenhouses, and an ex-grower I trust). The capital part and business plan is pretty straightforward, I have been fortunate to have both seed $ and investors who are willing to add capital if need be. While I dont know much about MJ, I know a good deal about suppy & demand and managing risk. The aspect that concerns me is the excess supply that will flow into the market in the coming months. Let me give you just a back of the envelope type calculation of buyers & sellers.

Buyers: ~40,000 prescriptions. Of those ~70% are on disability or lower income folks. Those who currently get their "medicine" from the current system pay little to nothing for their daily dose (most likely grossed up to 5-10g /day just to have a little extra to to sell to friends w/out prescriptions to pay for the whole process , or simply traded to a CC for their own consumption). So to be conservative, lets say of those 70% of patients, 50% of those will somehow come up with a way to purchase their ACTUAL personal use (5g/day to be safe..$1,140 month @ $7.60/g) on the open market, the other 50% will grow 1-4 plants themselves or have a funny uncle do it for them or maybe just buy on the BM. Now lets say the other 30% of your buyers all are well off and can pay any price for their medicine (same 5g/day, $1,140/month @ $7.60). Where does that leave us? 26,000 customers((40k x .3 + 28k x .5)) paying $1,140 month for 5g/day, thereby consuming 47.5k KG of MJ.

Sellers: As we just heard, Tweed was just authorized to produce 15k KG of MJ per year. There are 4 other growers already with very similar size licenses (but lets say 10k KG each to be safe, 40k KG combined). There are approx 300 LP in the pipeline right now, lets say that just 30% get approved (90), those that get approved are just small time guys, lets say 100lb/month or 1.2k KG/yr. Thats 108k KG/yr. So total we are at 163k KG/yr in production.

Now you will say, "yeah, but they cant produce that much right away" and your correct, but they are going to scale up as they get people into the pipeline(and they can scale faster and cheaper than almost all the sub 20k sq ft guys). The thing is that the Pipeline is at least 3.5X bigger than the market!! That is why scale is going to be soo important in this business. If your business model doesnt work @ $4/g you should really be asking yourself some tough questions. I get the whole idea that people pay for premium product, but look at your customers, really look at them, if you opened their fridge at home, you going to find the fancy craft beer in there or the cans of Molson (i have been told thats what Canadiens love to drink? )

Im not trying to piss on anyone's parade, but the real kicker here is the recreational legalization front. If you dont think that happens in the next two years, you might be in the wrong business. But thats just my two cents. Would love to know why people think prices will be in the $7-10 range. I get that the medical users will grown @ 30% yr, but even that doesnt do you much good for 10yrs. And given the reception from most doctors I know (only 4 granted), its going to be hard to get growth larger than that.

All that being said, we are still doing our homework and have some plans in place, anyone on Van Isle want to hook up and brainstorm Im up for it.
Hello and welcome.

LPs will also be competing with the black market, not just other LPs.

I think it is a mistake to focus on the 40k patient #. I believe that the numbers will climb at a very fast pace. More and more recreational people will become "patients". I predict 200k by the end of the second year, 500k within 5 years.

Doctors opinions might change dramatically now that the American Herbal Pharmacopeia has included Cannabis. If not, there will be a network of willing doctors to become specialized pot docs.

Lets say production costs are $2g. Sure an LP can sell for $4 and make a good profit margin. If they can sell it for $7 even better. The selling price, eventually will be determined by the marketplace. Supply and demand. Keeping in mind that the supply also includes the black market. The selling price will be as much as the seller can get.

We are very fortunate to be able to watch what transpires in Colorado. We can learn from their mistakes. Already we know that the suppliers who jumped into a price war failed miserably. The victors were the companies that maintained their high prices and margins, accepting a temporary drop in sales.
Have you noticed the selling price in Colorado?
 

Kron3007

Well-Known Member
Hello All,
New member here, I too went thru the entire thread yesterday and have to say its the best source of information I have come across ($300/hr consultants didnt have all this info). Anyways, I no nothing about MJ (I can hear the gasps behind my screen), nor do I really need to, my experience lies on the business side of things. Im a new PR in Canada, and worked on WallStreet in NY and London for over 10yrs (you think the underground MJ business is shady? you havent seen anything like I have), I moved to Van Isle recently and have been running #'s and refining a business plan for a team I put together (very, very senior Horticulturalist w/15+ yrs doing MJ consulting and managing large scale greenhouses, and an ex-grower I trust). The capital part and business plan is pretty straightforward, I have been fortunate to have both seed $ and investors who are willing to add capital if need be. While I dont know much about MJ, I know a good deal about suppy & demand and managing risk. The aspect that concerns me is the excess supply that will flow into the market in the coming months. Let me give you just a back of the envelope type calculation of buyers & sellers.

Buyers: ~40,000 prescriptions. Of those ~70% are on disability or lower income folks. Those who currently get their "medicine" from the current system pay little to nothing for their daily dose (most likely grossed up to 5-10g /day just to have a little extra to to sell to friends w/out prescriptions to pay for the whole process , or simply traded to a CC for their own consumption). So to be conservative, lets say of those 70% of patients, 50% of those will somehow come up with a way to purchase their ACTUAL personal use (5g/day to be safe..$1,140 month @ $7.60/g) on the open market, the other 50% will grow 1-4 plants themselves or have a funny uncle do it for them or maybe just buy on the BM. Now lets say the other 30% of your buyers all are well off and can pay any price for their medicine (same 5g/day, $1,140/month @ $7.60). Where does that leave us? 26,000 customers((40k x .3 + 28k x .5)) paying $1,140 month for 5g/day, thereby consuming 47.5k KG of MJ.

Sellers: As we just heard, Tweed was just authorized to produce 15k KG of MJ per year. There are 4 other growers already with very similar size licenses (but lets say 10k KG each to be safe, 40k KG combined). There are approx 300 LP in the pipeline right now, lets say that just 30% get approved (90), those that get approved are just small time guys, lets say 100lb/month or 1.2k KG/yr. Thats 108k KG/yr. So total we are at 163k KG/yr in production.

Now you will say, "yeah, but they cant produce that much right away" and your correct, but they are going to scale up as they get people into the pipeline(and they can scale faster and cheaper than almost all the sub 20k sq ft guys). The thing is that the Pipeline is at least 3.5X bigger than the market!! That is why scale is going to be soo important in this business. If your business model doesnt work @ $4/g you should really be asking yourself some tough questions. I get the whole idea that people pay for premium product, but look at your customers, really look at them, if you opened their fridge at home, you going to find the fancy craft beer in there or the cans of Molson (i have been told thats what Canadiens love to drink? )

Im not trying to piss on anyone's parade, but the real kicker here is the recreational legalization front. If you dont think that happens in the next two years, you might be in the wrong business. But thats just my two cents. Would love to know why people think prices will be in the $7-10 range. I get that the medical users will grown @ 30% yr, but even that doesnt do you much good for 10yrs. And given the reception from most doctors I know (only 4 granted), its going to be hard to get growth larger than that.

All that being said, we are still doing our homework and have some plans in place, anyone on Van Isle want to hook up and brainstorm Im up for it.
You make some very strong arguments and valid points. However, I think there is also a case for starting small and building from there. If you are producing 15 000kg/year you need to find a large number of patients to support your business. If you start small, you can survive with fewer customers and grow with demand. I find it interesting that they would start at such a large scale without an established customer base, especially given the nature of the beast. I understand the economy of scale, but if you start as a small group willing to defer salaries (at least in part) etc., and outsource the analysis, I dont know if it will apply.

From our calculations we could easily stay in business at $4/g and would love to see full legalization.
 

woodsmaneh!

Well-Known Member
Hello All,
New member here, I too went thru the entire thread yesterday and have to say its the best source of information I have come across ($300/hr consultants didnt have all this info). Anyways, I no nothing about MJ (I can hear the gasps behind my screen), nor do I really need to, my experience lies on the business side of things. Im a new PR in Canada, and worked on WallStreet in NY and London for over 10yrs (you think the underground MJ business is shady? you havent seen anything like I have), I moved to Van Isle recently and have been running #'s and refining a business plan for a team I put together (very, very senior Horticulturalist w/15+ yrs doing MJ consulting and managing large scale greenhouses, and an ex-grower I trust). The capital part and business plan is pretty straightforward, I have been fortunate to have both seed $ and investors who are willing to add capital if need be. While I dont know much about MJ, I know a good deal about suppy & demand and managing risk. The aspect that concerns me is the excess supply that will flow into the market in the coming months. Let me give you just a back of the envelope type calculation of buyers & sellers.

Buyers: ~40,000 prescriptions. Of those ~70% are on disability or lower income folks. Those who currently get their "medicine" from the current system pay little to nothing for their daily dose (most likely grossed up to 5-10g /day just to have a little extra to to sell to friends w/out prescriptions to pay for the whole process , or simply traded to a CC for their own consumption). So to be conservative, lets say of those 70% of patients, 50% of those will somehow come up with a way to purchase their ACTUAL personal use (5g/day to be safe..$1,140 month @ $7.60/g) on the open market, the other 50% will grow 1-4 plants themselves or have a funny uncle do it for them or maybe just buy on the BM. Now lets say the other 30% of your buyers all are well off and can pay any price for their medicine (same 5g/day, $1,140/month @ $7.60). Where does that leave us? 26,000 customers((40k x .3 + 28k x .5)) paying $1,140 month for 5g/day, thereby consuming 47.5k KG of MJ.

Sellers: As we just heard, Tweed was just authorized to produce 15k KG of MJ per year. There are 4 other growers already with very similar size licenses (but lets say 10k KG each to be safe, 40k KG combined). There are approx 300 LP in the pipeline right now, lets say that just 30% get approved (90), those that get approved are just small time guys, lets say 100lb/month or 1.2k KG/yr. Thats 108k KG/yr. So total we are at 163k KG/yr in production.

Now you will say, "yeah, but they cant produce that much right away" and your correct, but they are going to scale up as they get people into the pipeline(and they can scale faster and cheaper than almost all the sub 20k sq ft guys). The thing is that the Pipeline is at least 3.5X bigger than the market!! That is why scale is going to be soo important in this business. If your business model doesnt work @ $4/g you should really be asking yourself some tough questions. I get the whole idea that people pay for premium product, but look at your customers, really look at them, if you opened their fridge at home, you going to find the fancy craft beer in there or the cans of Molson (i have been told thats what Canadiens love to drink? )

Im not trying to piss on anyone's parade, but the real kicker here is the recreational legalization front. If you dont think that happens in the next two years, you might be in the wrong business. But thats just my two cents. Would love to know why people think prices will be in the $7-10 range. I get that the medical users will grown @ 30% yr, but even that doesnt do you much good for 10yrs. And given the reception from most doctors I know (only 4 granted), its going to be hard to get growth larger than that.

All that being said, we are still doing our homework and have some plans in place, anyone on Van Isle want to hook up and brainstorm Im up for it.
Some interesting points and that is what keeps lots of people up at night. With your background on wall street I'm kind of puzzled by your pessimistic view of a new market place. I mean coming from a world of pump and run experts you got to see more that the collapse of the market before it gets going. Where is your sense of adventure after all, your a high risk taker, Wall street and all.

So lets look at a few things

15K a year? Is it or is it for 3 years? I have a large capacity on my licence, will I ever get there, I hope so. It's smarter to grow into your licence than grow out of it, don't you think?

Warring if are a small LP and your market plan is to get some of those 40,000, stop and turn around and get back on the porch right now!
Any LP's who have a go to market plan and have done your SWOP, Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threat analysis, carry on. We got that sorted out.

Cost models are interesting and there are lots of variables that effect them. Your experienced grower should be able to give you real solid numbers on cost to grow, which I'm sure they did. Like you said $300.00 an hr consultants told you very little of value, I charge $50 an hour but if you got $300 for crappy advice I want $150 and will show you how to drop your cost model so low you will pay me $300 an hour. If you think it's coming down to last man standing, I know I will be that guy. I don't want to scare people with my cost of production numbers but after growing legal for a long time I can survive <$1 a gram, so bring it on. Sorry forgot I'm not playing in that market segment, so I'll set my own prices and will cover from $3 a gram to $12 a gram with a free grinder too.

Any how that's just my view of the world.

Best of luck
 

woodsmaneh!

Well-Known Member
Doesn't irradiated foods have to have the irradiated label on the packaging? I thought I read that on the HC website. If yes, shouldn't that apply to Cannimed too?
That is all covered under the regulations and the same food regulations apply to MMJ.
 
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