The Long March to 11/24

cannabineer said:

it’s nice to see a key player admit that polling and real are different things.

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They were election trends, perhaps more indictive of the national mood, especially if the young show up, which they have been in increasing numbers these past few years. It is often the "unlikely voters" that can tip the scales and women registering them and getting them to the polls might make a difference. Women are pissed about reproductive rights, and it's been building since Dobbs and crazy shit happening in the states driving the unpopular issue. Women organizing a ground game to register youth and get them to the polls might make a lot of difference, you can't count on Trump and internal division in the GOP or even them fucking up epically.

These results differ from the polls significantly and reflect unlikely voters or as he says a "silent majority".

DIY-HP-LED said:

They were election trends, perhaps more indictive of the national mood, especially if the young show up, which they have been in increasing numbers these past few years. It is often the "unlikely voters" that can tip the scales and women registering them and getting them to the polls might make a difference. Women are pissed about reproductive rights, and it's been building since Dobbs and crazy shit happening in the states driving the unpopular issue. Women organizing a ground game to register youth and get them to the polls might make a lot of difference, you can't count on Trump and internal division in the GOP or even them fucking up epically.

These results differ from the polls significantly and reflect unlikely voters or as he says a "silent majority".

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Isn’t that the point though? “The national mood” is such a protean and subjective construct. It isn’t fact but nearly unconstrained speculation. It’s the opposite of news to invoke such a solid-sounding thing that is actually made of smoke and the odd mirror.

cannabineer said:

Isn’t that the point though? “The national mood” is such a protean and subjective construct. It isn’t fact but nearly unconstrained speculation. It’s the opposite of news to invoke such a solid-sounding thing that is actually made of smoke and the odd mirror.

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There is such a thing, and it has real effects, feelings affect politics more than facts There is such a thing as a zeitgeist too, the spirit of the 90s was much different than it is today, the times they are a changing along with attitudes. These are election trends over time and are indictive of social/ generational change moving America out of its polarized phase and strengthening the actual majority in the country. It is only because of minority rule that republicans are so powerful in America and without foxnews pumping out fascist propaganda for them, they would be even less.

If you don't want to look at it as a zeitgeist, then think of it as an evolving majority social consensus, and in the case of America the majority needs to be larger than usual.

DIY-HP-LED said:

There is such a thing, and it has real effects, feelings affect politics more than facts There is such a thing as a zeitgeist too, the spirit of the 90s was much different than it is today, the times they are a changing along with attitudes. These are election trends over time and are indictive of social/ generational change moving America out of its polarized phase and strengthening the actual majority in the country. It is only because of minority rule that republicans are so powerful in America and without foxnews pumping out fascist propaganda for them, they would be even less.

If you don't want to look at it as a zeitgeist, then think of it as an evolving majority social consensus, and in the case of America the majority needs to be larger than usual.

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No. I do not believe there is either thing with enough realtime resolution to be useful. They are usually glib simplistic constructs used by lazy historians at least a generation after the fact.

But in the here and now, my sentiment and yours and his and hers and that guy’s cannot be expressed as an artificial collective thing. Even if that derived collective sentiment were at the precise multivariate center of the five, every individual would look at it and say “no match”.

Someone pumping national mood or zeitgeist leads me to dig a little. It is a cheap but effective manipulation, so the immediate question is, who’s tilting the table in which direction, and to whose benefit? Since it is such a cheap shot and good cover, it’s usually to some person’s or corporation’s unethical benefit.

So when you propagate either or the pair of ideas, you’re near-certainly playing into the hands of some populist.

All of this derives directly from the axiom that polls are not news.

cannabineer said:

No. I do not believe there is either thing with enough realtime resolution to be useful. They are usually glib simplistic constructs used by lazy historians at least a generation after the fact.

But in the here and now, my sentiment and yours and his and hers and that guy’s cannot be expressed as an artificial collective thing. Even if that derived collective sentiment were at the precise multivariate center of the five, every individual would look at it and say “no match”.

Someone pumping national mood or zeitgeist leads me to dig a little. It is a cheap but effective manipulation, so the immediate question is, who’s tilting the table in which direction, and to whose benefit? Since it is such a cheap shot and good cover, it’s usually to some person’s or corporation’s unethical benefit.

So when you propagate either or the pair of ideas, you’re near-certainly playing into the hands of some populist.

All of this derives directly from the axiom that polls are not news.

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Polls cause politicians concern, and they react to the sentiments in their districts, things like abortion have some of them worried. In Canada the polls look good for the conservatives and the government is paying attention! Polls cause policy change or should, who manipulates the information people are working with is another matter that I cover as well. There is a housing shortage in Canada, a widely held opinion backed by statistics and rent increases, it's the same for food inflation. Facts do matter for those who care about them, unfortunately many do not and that is part of the problem.

Parties do polling on issues and politicians react accordingly, right now there is division in the GOP because many know that crashing the economy will be very bad for everybody whether they believe in facts or not. We need to assess how people think and feel about issues and polling with statistical analysis is one of the few ways we have to measure this. In science the only truth is often statistical truth.

Biden's way of thinning the GOP herd?

Biden encourages others to ‘follow his example’ after receiving new flu, COVID shots
President Biden received a flu shot and updated COVID vaccine on Friday, and encouraged other Americans to do the same, the White House announced.

“As we enter the cold and flu season, the President encourages all Americans to follow his example and to check with their healthcare provider or pharmacist to assure that they are fully vaccinated,” White House physician Kevin O’Connor wrote in a statement Saturday.

The new COVID vaccine was approved by the FDA last week. The booster is crafted to combat newer strains of the virus as case rates rise nationally.
Cases of COVID rose rapidly in August nationwide, though that trend appears to have slowed this month, according to CDC data. The COVID positivity rate fell by about 2 percent last week, the first decrease in more than two months.

Meanwhile, hospitalization and death rates attributed to COVID-19 have continued to rise, according to the most recent data from the beginning of September.
More Americans are now concerned about COVID than in recent months, a Gallup poll released this week found. About a third of Americans worry about COVID worsening, while about a quarter worry about being infected, the survey found.

The rollout of the new vaccine has also not gone completely without a hitch. Many Americans have reported being charged for the new vaccine despite having insurance, which the Biden administration said would cover the shot.

The new vaccines have been available at retail pharmacies nationwide beginning this past week.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Polls cause politicians concern, and they react to the sentiments in their districts, things like abortion have some of them worried. In Canada the polls look good for the conservatives and the government is paying attention! Polls cause policy change or should, who manipulates the information people are working with is another matter that I cover as well. There is a housing shortage in Canada, a widely held opinion backed by statistics and rent increases, it's the same for food inflation. Facts do matter for those who care about them, unfortunately many do not and that is part of the problem.

Parties do polling on issues and politicians react accordingly, right now there is division in the GOP because many know that crashing the economy will be very bad for everybody whether they believe in facts or not. We need to assess how people think and feel about issues and polling with statistical analysis is one of the few ways we have to measure this. In science the only truth is often statistical truth.

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Your last sentence should read “In the social and political nonsciences the best way to feign a scientific approach is through lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Broad-brush concepts like mood of the nation, collective sentiment etc. are illusory. I assert again that they are usually and deliberately spun to benefit a minority. Since they are always biased to some degree, and often to a great one, their use as instruments of policy, ass you suggest above, is something I oppose on principle.

The only poll that matters is the one for which they mail me a ballot, since it is the only poll that has a direct consequence. As a side benefit, the sample size approaches the useful except in districts with low or skewed voter turnout.

Maga became what they are by and large on the back of “polls” like the WSJ one being treated as legitimate.

Once again, the guiding principle (which publishers generally deny because to them, polls are salable) is that polls are not news barring actual elections.

cannabineer said:

Your last sentence should read “In the social and political nonsciences the best way to feign a scientific approach is through lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Broad-brush concepts like mood of the nation, collective sentiment etc. are illusory. I assert again that they are usually and deliberately spun to benefit a minority. Since they are always biased to some degree, and often to a great one, their use as instruments of policy, ass you suggest above, is something I oppose on principle.

The only poll that matters is the one for which they mail me a ballot, since it is the only poll that has a direct consequence. As a side benefit, the sample size approaches the useful except in districts with low or skewed voter turnout.

Maga became what they are by and large on the back of “polls” like the WSJ one being treated as legitimate.

Once again, the guiding principle (which publishers generally deny because to them, polls are salable) is that polls are not news barring actual elections.

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This started with a post about actual election trends, not polls, polls are another instrument used to gauge public opinion and opinions are most often based on feelings, not logic and facts. There are problems with polling, more so today than in the past, today many don't answer polls and some people are deceptive on issues likely to cause embarrassment. Then there are likely voters and registered voters but don't count new voters and don't seem to capture some waves of social unrest. Marketing people use polls and other statistical measures to control hundreds of billions in advertising revenue, so they must have some connection to reality. Sales and money matter.

DIY-HP-LED said:

This started with a post about actual election trends, not polls, polls are another instrument used to gauge public opinion and opinions are most often based on feelings, not logic and facts. There are problems with polling, more so today than in the past, today many don't answer polls and some people are deceptive on issues likely to cause embarrassment. Then there are likely voters and registered voters but don't count new voters and don't seem to capture some waves of social unrest. Marketing people use polls and other statistical measures to control hundreds of billions in advertising revenue, so they must have some connection to reality. Sales and money matter.

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Marketing polls and political polls are completely different animals. The better market research firms, like Nielsen, instrument their test populations.

Also, imo the burden of inaccuracy lies less with the pollee than with the pollsters. Often a loaded question is posed to a curated sample group to produce results less in line with how things are but biased toward the pollsters’ or their backers’ agenda.

Back when polls were the province of one firm, Gallup, the results tended to be a bit more predictive. But now, with ads embedded in news articles inviting anybody (and thus selecting those opposed) to answer a dogwhistle such as “should illegal aliens get Social Security?” polls have largely degenerated into another propaganda mill.

cannabineer said:

Marketing polls and political polls are completely different animals. The better market research firms, like Nielsen, instrument their test populations.

Also, imo the burden of inaccuracy lies less with the pollee than with the pollsters. Often a loaded question is posed to a curated sample group to produce results less in line with how things are but biased toward the pollsters’ or their backers’ agenda.

Back when polls were the province of one firm, Gallup, the results tended to be a bit more predictive. But now, with ads embedded in news articles inviting anybody (and thus selecting those opposed) to answer a dogwhistle sic as “should illegal aliens get Social Security?” polls have largely degenerated into another propaganda mill.

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The parties do polls too and don't lie to themselves, but are sometimes deceived by the results, which I agree have become much less accurate in the era of Trump.

Let's talk about Taylor Swift's fans showing up....

If enough young people and women show up to vote in 24, it could be a blue landslide, particularly if the women organize and get out the youth vote to expand their voice on reproductive rights. Young women can bring young men to the polls too, boy fiends, friends, brothers and fathers.

Guess who the ones who oppose unions are. 90% of those who oppose unions are republicans and most are magat morons. The GOP is anti-union and anti-worker, they serve the rich and con their base of idiots with bigotry and culture wars.

Tens of millions of Americans will eagerly await to cut their own throats come election day and they will find the knife in the voting booth.

He makes a good point about phone polling and its increasing unreliability and underrepresenting the younger demographic.


Let's talk about Trump leading Biden in a poll....

Another civics and political science lesson from Steve.


Steve Schmidt explains why Donald Trump’s plans for retribution can’t be taken lightly | The Warning

39,114 views Sep 25, 2023 The Warning
Steve Schmidt explains why Donald Trump's comments about going after his enemies in the meeting must be taken both literally and seriously.

Unlike beer, the yokels don't buy her music, so go ahead and boycott away boys! Piss her off and she could throw the election to the democrats, and it looks like she might try this coming election season. Incels of the world unite!

Joe: The president needs to start talking about Trump being too old

17,190 views Sep 26, 2023 #JoeBiden #Trump #Politics
During a campaign stop in South Carolina on Monday, former President Trump appeared to confuse Jeb Bush and his brother George W. Bush. The Morning Joe panel discusses the moment and why President Biden needs to go after Trump over Trump's age.

Supreme Court refuses to revive Alabama’s GOP-drawn congressional map
The Supreme Court refused to reinstate Alabama’s Republican-drawn congressional map, enabling a court-appointed official to draw the lines for the 2024 election instead.
The justices in June struck down Alabama’s previous map for likely diluting the power of Black voters, and the current dispute concerned a new version that still did not add a second majority-Black district.

Alabama had urged the justices to temporarily halt a lower ruling that blocked that new map for not following the Supreme Court’s directive.
In a brief order on Tuesday, the high court denied the state’s request, handing a significant victory for voting rights advocates and a group of Black Alabama voters who had sued over the design. There were no noted dissents.
The ruling could also provide a boost to Democrats in their quest to retake the House next year. Rather than using the Republican-drawn lines for the 2024 election cycle, the order paves the way for an independent expert appointed by a panel of federal judges to design the boundaries instead.

That court-appointed expert is set to submit the final map in the coming days.
When Alabama brought its redistricting fight to the high court the first time, the justices ruled 5-4 in February 2022 to temporarily revive the state’s map, allowing it to be used for that year’s midterms.
Conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who voted to revive the map, at the time cited a legal doctrine that federal courts should not intervene to alter state election rules in the lead-up to an election.


But in the final decision months later, Kavanaugh went the other way, giving Chief Justice John Roberts and the court’s three liberals a majority to toss Alabama’s map for likely violating the Voting Rights Act.
The state’s Republican-led Legislature was directed to draw a new map that “will need to include two districts in which Black voters either comprise a voting-age majority or something quite close to it.”
The new design maintained Alabama’s one majority-Black district — which is represented by the state’s lone congressional Democrat — and only increased the percentage of Black voters in the 2nd Congressional District from 30 percent to 40 percent.

The original plaintiffs challenged the new design, saying Alabama had defied the Supreme Court.
Earlier this month, a panel of federal judges sided with them by ruling that Alabama’s new map did not remedy the issue. The panel instead ordered a court-appointed official step in and draw the lines.
“The State of Alabama has been maligned as engaging in ‘open rebellion’ because it remedied the discriminatory effect in the 2021 Plan without going further to split Mobile, or Dothan, or the places in between on race-based lines. No State could constitutionally draw such plans,” Alabama wrote in court filings.

In an interview ahead of the ruling, Evan Milligan, one of the lead plaintiffs, said he was optimistic about their chances at the Supreme Court, given the past success.
“I’m more optimistic than when we started,” he said. “So, it’s been about two years. I think for a number of reasons. There are a lot of people that are interested in this now that were not a part of the conversation, when we first started.”