Unnaturally Lucky?

Padawanbater2

Padawanbater2

Well-Known Member
So last season I grew 6 plants - all turned out female.

This season I planted 4 plants - all turned out female.

These are just bagseeds from my personal stash, not feminized seeds from a distributor.

So what's this about, 10 for 10 - all females. How does that randomly happen by chance?

Odd..
 
Oh and because I am stoned and once took a statistics class...

You have a 50% chance of one plant being female. So...
You have a 25% chance of two plants being female. And..
You have a 12.5% chance of three plants being female. And..
You have a 6.25% chance of four plants being female. And..
You have a 3.13% chance of five plants being female. And...
You have a 1.56% chance of six plants being all female... So, less than 1 in 100.
 
I would love a stats guy on hands at all times! thems crazy odds, your are most definatlty a lucky man, i only chanced bag seed once, and grew one the best males you ever seen!
 
NLXSK1 said:
Oh and because I am stoned and once took a statistics class...

You have a 50% chance of one plant being female. So...
You have a 25% chance of two plants being female. And..
You have a 12.5% chance of three plants being female. And..
You have a 6.25% chance of four plants being female. And..
You have a 3.13% chance of five plants being female. And...
You have a 1.56% chance of six plants being all female... So, less than 1 in 100.
Click to expand...

but i think for two consecutive seasons for it to happen you need to multiply the 100 (1 in 100) by 100 and now its 1 in 10,000
 
So the old stats guy misinformed us, tut tut, praise new stats guy, your even more fortuante than before (good god im baked)
 
rzza said:
but i think for two consecutive seasons for it to happen you need to multiply the 100 (1 in 100) by 100 and now its 1 in 10,000
Click to expand...

I wasnt calculating both grows together but we are both wrong then.

It would be the 6 plant grow 1.56% * the 4 plant grow * 6.25 = .000975 or .0975% so about 1 in 1,000. Now if the next two he grows are female then he is in the range of 1 in 10,000.

And if I am wrong on this cut me some slack cause the class was over 20 years ago :P
 
assuming all 6 seeds have precisely a 50% chance at being female:

odds of all females = 1/2^6 = 1/1/2*2*2*2*2*2 = 1/64

assuming all 4 seeds on grow 2 have the same 50% odds:

odds of all females = 1/2^4 = 1/2*2*2*2 = 1/16

1/16 * 1/64 = 1/16*64 = 1/1024.

however, the odds are probably not so close to 1 in a 1000 when you factor in conditional probability, which i do not want to get into. this also assumes all seeds had a 50/50 shot, which may not have been the actual case. even feminized seeds are only 97 or 99% feminized, from what I read.

still pretty damn lucky!
 
NLXSK1 said:
I wasnt calculating both grows together but we are both wrong then.

It would be the 6 plant grow 1.56% * the 4 plant grow * 6.25 = .000975 or .0975% so about 1 in 1,000. Now if the next two he grows are female then he is in the range of 1 in 10,000.

And if I am wrong on this cut me some slack cause the class was over 20 years ago :P
Click to expand...

i agree fully, its exactly what i said before ...
 
You know what's even luckier ?

I was in camp for six months and wanted to grow 'cause there was NO weed (and that's REALLY rare in a logging camp!)

I had ONE seed in an oz that I brought in, and it turned out to be a female. Stats be damned, THAT'S lucky !
Had it been a male, it would have been a looooong tour.
 
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