Is the World Flat? The Flatlander's theory..

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eye exaggerate

eye exaggerate

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Heisenberg said:
Until cannabineer returns to give me something to mull over, I'm bored.

Shall we play another game?


Name that cognitive bias.

-I believe half of all marriages end in divorce, but I am confident that if I get married I will end up in the half that stay together.

-Although I smoke two packs a day, I don't think I will get lung cancer because I didn't start smoking until I was 25.

-My chances of winning the lottery are better than most people because I have a special system for picking the numbers.

The three statements have a bias in common, what is it? Yes, I know that the actual divorce rate is not as simple as saying "it's 50/50", which is why the first one is worded carefully.
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Luck.
 
714steadyeddie

714steadyeddie

Well-Known Member
Slipup420 said:
DO our eyes play tricks on us ??? why are astronauts sworn to secrecy. what could they possibly say that would make governments truly liars but we go ahead on believing them likes its gospil
why are there no fly zones at the poles

Lyndon Johnson told America that the North Vietnamese had attacked us in the Gulf of Tonkin. He lied. As a result, tens of thousands of Americans and millions of Vietnamese lost their lives in a no-win war.

Bill Clinton told America that he "did not have sexual relations with that woman." Tens of thousands of children who (a generation ago) would have dreamed of being President have now turned to experimenting with oral sex.

Other big government lies:

  • "Read my lips: no new taxes."
  • "I experimented with marijuana a time or two and I didn’t like it, and didn’t inhale and never tried it again."
  • "The federal building in Oklahoma City was destroyed by right-wing extremists" (why has the Arab-looking "John Doe #2" never been arrested?)
  • "Vince Foster committed suicide."
  • "Children are being molested in a compound in Waco" (to protect them, we must incinerate them).
  • The downing of TWA Flight 800 was an "accident." (and again, the Mideast questions have been suppressed).
  • "We owe it to ourselves."
  • It is "easy to imagine an infinite number of situations . . . where government officials might quite legitimately have reasons to give false information out" (details).
  • "Saddam Hussein is a direct and imminent threat to the United States of America."
Behind all these lies -- all the buildings destroyed by terrorists, all the lives lost in senseless wars, all the new taxes taken from your paycheck, and all the decline in America's greatness -- is The Biggest Government Lie of All Time.

And like most Americans, you probably believe it.

The Big Lie is an on-going lie.

  • Every child in every government school in America is taught The Big Lie.
  • Governments around this world spread The Big Lie.
  • Television and cable networks repeat The Big Lie almost daily.
  • The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and other major newspapers, all perpetuate The Big Lie.
Because of The Big Lie, University of Hawaii Political Science Professor Rudolph J. Rummel has calculated that on the average day, every single day during the 20th century, thousands of people have been murdered by governments --per day. His book is called Death by Government.

Because of The Big Lie, not just millions, not just billions, but trillions of dollars in private property have been stolen by governments.

Because of this lie, billions of people around the world have been denied "the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them" (Declaration of Independence, 1776).
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Well put
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

Well-Known Member
eye exaggerate said:
Luck.
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Yes, this is sometimes referred to as the luck bias. Good Job.

The more proper name is optimism bias. Where the availability heuristic can cause us to miscalculate the probability of an event/outcome, optimism bias happens when we understand the odds favor a negative outcome, but think we'll get the outcome we want anyway. Specifically, it's not that we think the odds will somehow magically bend to favor us, but that we have some sort of unique ability or factor that will help us gain an edge.

It is not limited just to direct probability assessment, but more abstract predictions as well.

"The methodology reveals, for instance, that students expect to receive higher starting salaries and more job offers than they end up getting. People tend to underestimate how long a project will take to complete and how much it will cost. Most of us predict deriving greater pleasure from a vacation than we subsequently do, and we anticipate encountering more positive events in an upcoming month (such as receiving a gift or enjoying a movie) than we end up experiencing" http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982211011912

Although this can lead to poor decisions, it can also be incredibly helpful. If people only considered the likelihood that they will become president, no one would bother trying to become president. Optimism bias helps motivate us to reach our goals, and It can also help to reduce stress and anxiety. There are always two sides to a bias.
 
a senile fungus

a senile fungus

Well-Known Member
Heisenberg said:
Until cannabineer returns to give me something to mull over, I'm bored.

Shall we play another game?


Name that cognitive bias.

-I believe half of all marriages end in divorce, but I am confident that if I get married I will end up in the half that stay together.

-Although I smoke two packs a day, I don't think I will get lung cancer because I didn't start smoking until I was 25.

-My chances of winning the lottery are better than most people because I have a special system for picking the numbers.

The three statements have a bias in common, what is it? Yes, I know that the actual divorce rate is not as simple as saying "it's 50/50", which is why the first one is worded carefully.
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Sounds like wishful thinking to me...
 
714steadyeddie

714steadyeddie

Well-Known Member
tangerinegreen555 said:
because...




it's not the earth....
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Actually you're wrong


"The Moon does spin on its axis, completing a rotation once every 27.3 days; the confusion is caused because it also takes the same period to orbit the Earth, so that it keeps the same side facing us."

NASA says the moon rotates but we fucking see the same side always. No matter where on earth

Point being nasa is full of shit
 

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