War

Unclebaldrick

Unclebaldrick

Well-Known Member
I may be a horrible pessimist, but I have been of the mind that Ukraine is going to fight a valiant but ultimately doomed campaign against Russia resulting in a rump state before long. Maybe I am wrong, maybe not. In another therad I stated that I thought Russia would meet its military objectives in a week or two - but I conveniently made no mention of what those objectives might be. It wasn't intentional.

Still bypassing that topic (lacking a crystal ball and never being that good of understanding the motivations of non-mammalian species), I fully expect that the Ukrainians will continue resistance indefinitely and make this a very costly venture for Russia in pretty much every way possible.

But the no-fly zone is what I am pondering today. Lots of discussion that seems to be favoring it and I am still not in agreement. First off, sending modern fighter jets into Ukraine seems like a bad idea. In order to make them effective, it would require a huge amount of support equipment and personnel. Maybe I am wrong about this but I find it very hard to believe that Russia has not obliterated any known Ukrainian airfields. Its pretty easy to do - they can't move them. So sending jets into these areas seems to pointless. I find it inconceivable that Ukraine is going to be able to challenge the Russian air forces for air superiority and would expect that anything we send will be quickly neutralized.

The topic of what would happen if a no-fly zone were established and enforced by NATO forces has come up. Parallels have been raised with Korea and Vietnam have been raised. Clearly, Soviet pilots were directly engaged with American pilots during those conflicts and yet it did not broaden the conflict into a world war. I'm sorry, but I see huge differences. First off, those Russian pilots were based in China or North Vietnam and made only hit and run attacks. If they were shot down, they landed over occupied territory. Did we have proof that Soviet pilots were engaged? Oh hell yeah. In many cases, we actually knew their names. Did we have a body? Probably, but nobody ever admitted anything. So why wasn't there a global conflict? I think the only reason for that was that we didn't make it one.

Imagine the modern equivalent. US air forces based in Poland, Lithuania, etc. dodge across the border deep into Ukraine to patrol the no fly zone. In addition to a gauntlet of surface to air missiles, you get to face modern Russian aircraft over territory partially controlled by Russia. It does not matter how good our pilots are or how good our planes are, some are going to get shot down. Then you will have a Francis Gary Powers style perp walk. What if Ukrainian pilots are the only ones involved? If they are flying out of Ukraine, their bases will be destroyed in short order by cruise missiles. If they are flying out of a bordering country, Russia will likely not hesitate to bomb the living shit out of them.

Would Russia broaden the conflict if either of these things happened? Yes, I believe they would. I also believe that their actions are broadcasting a willingness to do so and our diplomats understand this.
 
injinji

injinji

Well-Known Member
Unclebaldrick said:
I may be a horrible pessimist, but I have been of the mind that Ukraine is going to fight a valiant but ultimately doomed campaign against Russia resulting in a rump state before long. Maybe I am wrong, maybe not. In another therad I stated that I thought Russia would meet its military objectives in a week or two - but I conveniently made no mention of what those objectives might be. It wasn't intentional.

Still bypassing that topic (lacking a crystal ball and never being that good of understanding the motivations of non-mammalian species), I fully expect that the Ukrainians will continue resistance indefinitely and make this a very costly venture for Russia in pretty much every way possible.

But the no-fly zone is what I am pondering today. Lots of discussion that seems to be favoring it and I am still not in agreement. First off, sending modern fighter jets into Ukraine seems like a bad idea. In order to make them effective, it would require a huge amount of support equipment and personnel. Maybe I am wrong about this but I find it very hard to believe that Russia has not obliterated any known Ukrainian airfields. Its pretty easy to do - they can't move them. So sending jets into these areas seems to pointless. I find it inconceivable that Ukraine is going to be able to challenge the Russian air forces for air superiority and would expect that anything we send will be quickly neutralized.

The topic of what would happen if a no-fly zone were established and enforced by NATO forces has come up. Parallels have been raised with Korea and Vietnam have been raised. Clearly, Soviet pilots were directly engaged with American pilots during those conflicts and yet it did not broaden the conflict into a world war. I'm sorry, but I see huge differences. First off, those Russian pilots were based in China or North Vietnam and made only hit and run attacks. If they were shot down, they landed over occupied territory. Did we have proof that Soviet pilots were engaged? Oh hell yeah. In many cases, we actually knew their names. Did we have a body? Probably, but nobody ever admitted anything. So why wasn't there a global conflict? I think the only reason for that was that we didn't make it one.

Imagine the modern equivalent. US air forces based in Poland, Lithuania, etc. dodge across the border deep into Ukraine to patrol the no fly zone. In addition to a gauntlet of surface to air missiles, you get to face modern Russian aircraft over territory partially controlled by Russia. It does not matter how good our pilots are or how good our planes are, some are going to get shot down. Then you will have a Francis Gary Powers style perp walk. What if Ukrainian pilots are the only ones involved? If they are flying out of Ukraine, their bases will be destroyed in short order by cruise missiles. If they are flying out of a bordering country, Russia will likely not hesitate to bomb the living shit out of them.

Would Russia broaden the conflict if either of these things happened? Yes, I believe they would. I also believe that their actions are broadcasting a willingness to do so and our diplomats understand this.
Click to expand...
There is enough ground to air defenses that neither air force is flying many missions. Most of the death from the sky is coming in the form of cruise missiles and rockets from poot-poot's side and drones from Ukraine. As long as we keep the missiles coming in, that is not going to change.

There is not going to be a no fly zone. Full stop. It's best for everyone but the Ukrainians if it takes six months to a year for poot-poot to gain control of the country. If we can get them to stay two or three years after that as an occupying force, Russia as we know it will no longer be part of the world stage. Their force has already been decimated in less than a month. In the true sense of the word. ie reduced by 10%.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
CCGNZ said:
I've seen some predictions that China would conduct a operation to seize the territory including the port of Vladivlostoc,a former Mongolian area that belonged to China in the 15th century if Russia is really weakened in the future,think about that and the access to the Pacific they would gain,hell it might even alter their designs on Taiwan as the need to control that choke point would be altered significantly if they gained that territory,could solve alot of problems.
Click to expand...
Going north might be easier than going south, blow some bridges over a remote river in Siberia and they can cut off western Russia from the east and take the whole eastern part. If the economy is in the toilet, some regions may want to break away, like with the bullshit the Russians pulled in Ukraine. If people figured their standard of living would rise quickly, you never know, China would not need to invade, just install a puppet government. They would then would invite China in and form a defense alliance. That's how Vlad thinks and how it might go down, in some of the central Asian Stans too, some of which have oil...
 
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printer

printer

Well-Known Member
Last edited by a moderator:
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
Yandex Head Quits After Surprise EU Sanctions
Tech giant that previously tread path of compromise with Kremlin comes under Brussels’ fire.
www.themoscowtimes.com

Yandex Head Quits After Surprise EU Sanctions - The Moscow Times

The head of Russia’s top technology firm Yandex quit late Tuesday after being slapped with EU sanctions in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
www.themoscowtimes.com www.themoscowtimes.com
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Unclebaldrick said:
I may be a horrible pessimist, but I have been of the mind that Ukraine is going to fight a valiant but ultimately doomed campaign against Russia resulting in a rump state before long. Maybe I am wrong, maybe not. In another therad I stated that I thought Russia would meet its military objectives in a week or two - but I conveniently made no mention of what those objectives might be. It wasn't intentional.

Still bypassing that topic (lacking a crystal ball and never being that good of understanding the motivations of non-mammalian species), I fully expect that the Ukrainians will continue resistance indefinitely and make this a very costly venture for Russia in pretty much every way possible.

But the no-fly zone is what I am pondering today. Lots of discussion that seems to be favoring it and I am still not in agreement. First off, sending modern fighter jets into Ukraine seems like a bad idea. In order to make them effective, it would require a huge amount of support equipment and personnel. Maybe I am wrong about this but I find it very hard to believe that Russia has not obliterated any known Ukrainian airfields. Its pretty easy to do - they can't move them. So sending jets into these areas seems to pointless. I find it inconceivable that Ukraine is going to be able to challenge the Russian air forces for air superiority and would expect that anything we send will be quickly neutralized.

The topic of what would happen if a no-fly zone were established and enforced by NATO forces has come up. Parallels have been raised with Korea and Vietnam have been raised. Clearly, Soviet pilots were directly engaged with American pilots during those conflicts and yet it did not broaden the conflict into a world war. I'm sorry, but I see huge differences. First off, those Russian pilots were based in China or North Vietnam and made only hit and run attacks. If they were shot down, they landed over occupied territory. Did we have proof that Soviet pilots were engaged? Oh hell yeah. In many cases, we actually knew their names. Did we have a body? Probably, but nobody ever admitted anything. So why wasn't there a global conflict? I think the only reason for that was that we didn't make it one.

Imagine the modern equivalent. US air forces based in Poland, Lithuania, etc. dodge across the border deep into Ukraine to patrol the no fly zone. In addition to a gauntlet of surface to air missiles, you get to face modern Russian aircraft over territory partially controlled by Russia. It does not matter how good our pilots are or how good our planes are, some are going to get shot down. Then you will have a Francis Gary Powers style perp walk. What if Ukrainian pilots are the only ones involved? If they are flying out of Ukraine, their bases will be destroyed in short order by cruise missiles. If they are flying out of a bordering country, Russia will likely not hesitate to bomb the living shit out of them.

Would Russia broaden the conflict if either of these things happened? Yes, I believe they would. I also believe that their actions are broadcasting a willingness to do so and our diplomats understand this.
Click to expand...
Do what works and better AA missiles with a longer reach is what they are getting, aircraft are only operating over friendly territory by the Russians, close tactical air support that makes a difference on the ground is off the table with Stingers. The Russians can only bomb area targets with dumb bombs WW2 style and only can bomb cities from high altitude. Much of the damage is being done with long range rocket artillery and when they can, gun artillery. Drones are doing an unexpectedly good job in tactical air support and they will be getting many more from Uncle Sam, some might not be controlled from inside Ukraine, but they will be painted blue and yellow. The Ukrainians, missiles and drones can do the job and are doing it, wait a couple of weeks and see what happens to the Russians deep in Ukraine, when offensive operations begin.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
DIY-HP-LED said:
Going north might be easier than going south, blow some bridges over a remote river in Siberia and they can cut off western Russia from the east and take the whole western part. If the economy is in the toilet, some regions my want to break away, like with the bullshit the Russians pulled in Ukraine. If people figured their standard of living would rise quickly, you never know, China would not need to invade, just install a puppet government. They would then would invite China in and form a defense alliance. That's how Vlad thinks and how it might go down, in some to the central Asian Stans too, some of which have oil...
Click to expand...
This reminds me of Clancy’s novel about China making a bid to conquer the “Northern Resource Area” after a pair of massive mineral strikes deep in the taiga.
In that work, relations between Russia and us are good enough that we help with a few air strikes. Incorrupt Russian premiers seem to be creatures of fiction.

I imagine there are highly-placed Chinese who see a real shot at doubling their territory in a blitzkrieg of maybe a week of fighting and a few months of consolidation. It would be fun to read a similar speculation starting with conditions now.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
cannabineer said:
This reminds me of Clancy’s novel about China making a bid to conquer the “Northern Resource Area” after a pair of massive mineral strikes deep in the taiga.
In that work, relations between Russia and us are good enough that we help with a few air strikes. Incorrupt Russian premiers seem to be creatures of fiction.

I imagine there are highly-placed Chinese who see a real shot at doubling their territory in a blitzkrieg of maybe a week of fighting and a few months of consolidation. It would be fun to read a similar speculation starting with conditions now.
Click to expand...
If they do, they will play spy games and use clandestine operations, cause revolution in the regions or vassal states they want and install a puppet or friendly government who will invite them in, to lift Vlad's yoke. Going north is a viable option for them, they will have Vlad by the balls and own the fucker in 5 years.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
NBC learned about the study in the United States of the possibility of supplying Ukraine with high-precision guided missiles
The administration of US President Joe Biden is exploring the possibility of supplying Ukraine with precision-guided missiles as part of a new military aid package, which is expected to be discussed on Wednesday, NBC reported, citing congressional sources.

It is noted that Washington can transfer Switchblade 300 and Switchblade 600 to Kiev , which are used for pinpoint attacks on both personnel and tanks and other armored vehicles.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that Western weapons to Ukraine are incessantly flowing, defiantly, and foreign advisers are in charge of the situation in this country.

Russia launched a military operation on February 24 to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine . The armed forces say they are only targeting military infrastructure and Ukrainian troops. There are casualties on both sides.

After that, many Western countries imposed large-scale sanctions against Moscow , primarily against the banking sector and the supply of high-tech products.
ria-ru.translate.goog

СМИ: США задумались над поставками Украине высокоточных управляемых ракет

Администрация президента США Джо Байдена изучает возможность поставки Украине высокоточных управляемых ракет в рамках нового пакета военной помощи, обсуждение... РИА Новости, 16.03.2022
ria-ru.translate.goog ria-ru.translate.goog
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
BudmanTX said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504067534684921862

long overdue
Click to expand...
They are dumping a ton of leftover Soviet era stuff on them, leftovers from former Warsaw pact members, it will work for it's intended purpose and the Ukrainians have many people familiar with them. However, they did not mention the NATO AA systems that were going into Ukraine too, just these to give the press something to chew on. Uncle Sam has already jumped in with both feet, he very much likes what he sees, tragedy aside, it is a major strategic and historical event. The Chinese curse was never more true than for the Ukrainians, "May you live in in interesting times".
 
BudmanTX

BudmanTX

Well-Known Member

At a different media briefing in the same venue, a reconnaissance officer called Vladimir who had been captured told a group of international reporters, "Our government told us we need to liberate the civilian population. I want to tell Russian servicemen: lay down your arms and leave your stations, don't come here. Everyone wants peace here."
Vladimir then went a big step further, saying: "I want to tell our commander-in-chief to stop terror acts in Ukraine because when we come back we'll rise against him."


after this mess looks like ol pooty gonna have problems domestically....hehe
 
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