I figure in a decade the situation in some places will be reversed with dwindling numbers of gas stations. As volumes decrease with more EVs on the roads gas stations will close or switch uses because of reduced gas sales. The current ICE fleet is an average of 12 years old and by 2035 they are shooting mostly if not all the new cars sold are EVs in most places and depending on the country or region, a large portion of the cars should be EVs. I expect the number of charging points to grow and the number of gas stations to shrink starting over the next decade.
Much depends on emerging battery technology IMO, Lion batteries leave much to be desired, in terms of safety, range, temp performance, durability, resources and cost. According to many reports we appear to be getting there with the batteries, with factories going up and new chemistries going into production. The auto industry has bet the farm on the transition to EVs, but it might mean some changes to the kinds of vehicles some people drive. The era of the SUV and suburban half ton might be coming to an end for many, driving 3 tons of shit to the corner store to pick up milk might be a thing of the past for many.
Contrarily, I think the petroleum infrastructure will be fairly robust. My reasoning:
1) Current combustion vehicles are built to go a long way/time with minimal maintenance. There are enough people who like to keep a car for decades, and people who buy older cars to save on the purchase, that there will be demand for fuel for 30 years easy, barring regulatory pressure.
2) The places where EVs will first be adopted are densely-populated metro areas. These have the bulk of the Wesyern world’s cars, so cities will have a mix of charging and filling stations.
It is in metro areas that I expect filling station attrition to happen first and most, simply because there are a buttload of stations on the ground currently. But I anticipate it being very much slower than you suggest — once again barring a strong artificial regulatory bias.
3) The gas and Diesel car and truck (and farm machine) will remain king of the open country for a long time.
Rural users have real need of vehicles with long range and all-weather operability. Under current and reasonably projected tech, that disqualifies electrics. I expect filling stations in low-population-density regions to be here for the rest of my life, and to outnumber charging stations.
The technology of BEVs will need to become MUCH better before they prevail in ranchland.
Also, the electrical grid has a great deal of evolving to do before it can service a countryside of combines and stock trucks.
Or anything heavy whose manufacturer livery is green or yellow.
Summary: filling stations will be with us for decades yet — that is barring punitive regulation. My car is 10 years old, and I expect to get another 20-30 years of service from it.
By then I expect my next vehicle to have
much better efficiency, adverse-condition capability and range (and reduced weight from more energy-dense storage than the current 240 Wh per freakin kilogram)
and considerably lower price than current EVs that aren’t an Aptera with the 1000-mile battery. I also expect it to have a coupla kW of ~45%-efficient solar on its upper surfaces, and autonomous operation. When I lose my operator’s license due to the slings and arrows of advancing age, a true self-driving AI on wheels will keep me independently mobile.
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