Why Do People Believe Weird Things... Confirmation Bias

captain chronizzle

captain chronizzle

Well-Known Member
Heisenberg said:
In my quest to understand why some false beliefs persist, I have found that it's easiest to start with the simple things. The same mistakes of logic and perception that cause silly beliefs like superstitions are also responsible for the big false beliefs of this world..like ghosts, alien abductions and yes, god. This post covers only two of those mistakes.

The first thing that comes into play in many superstitions is a mistake of logic called, post hoc ergo proctor hoc, which means, after this therefore because of this.

You walk under a ladder and then a paint bucket falls on your head. A black cat crosses your path and then your horse breaks it's leg. Someone gives you the evil eye and then you get the flu. All of these things assume a relationship that isn't really there. Because evolution has hardwired the human brain to see and recognize patterns, we sometimes see patterns where none exist.

The second thing that happens here is called confirmation bias. That is the tendency humans have to forget the events which do not reinforce their beliefs. In other words, you remember the hits and forget the misses. This comes into play a lot when psychics do a cold reading. You go away thinking they knew a lot about you because you don't remember all the stuff they got wrong.

A good example of confirmation bias is the belief that the rate of crime and emergencies are always higher during a full moon. Ask a cop who works the night shift and they will probably confirm that yea, a full moon seems to bring out the crazies. And if this cop is out there every night year after year, wouldn't he be the one to know?

A nurse looks around the emergency room and notes that they are much busier than normal, and the injuries coming in seem more severe than most nights. She turns to a doctor and asks him to look out the window and see if the moon is full. He looks and remarks that it's only half full. The nurse goes back to work and doesn't think anymore about it. If the doctor would have confirmed that the moon was full, it would have made an impression and she would remember for a long time that crazy night in the ER when the moon was full. We forget the misses and remember the hits. Confirmation bias.

So keep this in mind when you are trying to figure out the world. Humans are prone to mistakes, but making ourselves aware of those mistakes helps us avoid them.
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yeah, its like gun control. human beings can be sooooo intelligent, then turn around and be soooooo ignorant.

O.p. have you seen idiocracy?
 
Hum215

Hum215

Active Member
sleeperls93 said:
The things i have experienced are not random... and I have experienced proof.... it's not religion, it's faith... but I'm done, I'm not going to get into a debate with you so called "scholars" lmao.... your to wise lol
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Thank you for proving my point :)
 
guy incognito

guy incognito

Well-Known Member
The Ruiner said:
I respect your intellect man, but really alien abduction (or at least interaction) is not "silly," there are way too many unanswered questions about it...If you think it's "silly" I want to know how you can explain the work of Dr. Roger Lier as "silly."

To think we "know it all" is silly...people can believe what they want and rationality and intellect can only go so far to explain what is actually real. These implants are more real than your logic...They have substance...whereas your position is based off of nothing but your own limited perception of the world in which you live.

Google "the battle of los angeles" and then tell me belief in aliens is silly...
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Did you quote the right post?

Where are these implants? What kind of analysis has been done to prove they are not from earth?
 
guy incognito

guy incognito

Well-Known Member
The more I read about Roger Leir the more silly I think he and anyone who believes in this stuff is.

Why have these chips not been reverse engineered? (or have they? - but why can't I find any info on it?) Why would they use radio waves to transmit information back to them as he claimed? I would think they must have mastered FTL travel in order to ever get to earth in the first place. If they can do that, AND find intelligent life on earth in the vast cosmos, how could they not have figured out how human biology works? Why is roger leir the only one who has removed these chips out of the millions of doctors on earth?

The whole thing wreaks of conspiracy theory and bullshit.
 
The Ruiner

The Ruiner

Well-Known Member
guy incognito said:
The more I read about Roger Leir the more silly I think he and anyone who believes in this stuff is.

Why have these chips not been reverse engineered? (or have they? - but why can't I find any info on it?) Why would they use radio waves to transmit information back to them as he claimed? I would think they must have mastered FTL travel in order to ever get to earth in the first place. If they can do that, AND find intelligent life on earth in the vast cosmos, how could they not have figured out how human biology works? Why is roger leir the only one who has removed these chips out of the millions of doctors on earth?

The whole thing wreaks of conspiracy theory and bullshit.
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You are making assumptions about his work without even trying to clarify...he works with other well-respected scientist and no one, not even the Los Alamos Lab can explain these implants. How could humans reverse engineer that which they dont even have the capability to reproduce? We do not have access to the materials used, they are only found in deep space. And they behave like nothing else ever observed...

If you actually took the time to familiarize yourself with his work (and I admit, I am not fully qualified to debate it, and no one here probably is either), your questions might be answered.
 
mindphuk

mindphuk

Well-Known Member
Regardless of whether or not alien visitation is in fact a reality or still fiction as most skeptics would claim. I think we can all agree that the probability for alien visitation is magnitudes higher than the probability of Judeo-Christian god with all of the flaws and contradictions in the bible intact. This idea that all beliefs are equally valid is nonsense. Some weird beliefs are vastly more credible, even without ANY evidence, than other weird beliefs.
 
mindphuk

mindphuk

Well-Known Member
There was a thread about Dr. Lier here before. I think we all came to the conclusion he's completely genuine and the implants are solid proof of alien visitation to our planet. However, don't go to him to have your implant removed. I'll do it for you much cheaper and faster than him, and encase the implant in acrylic plastic attached to a chain so you can hang it round your neck to show disbelievers. Let's say $499.00 for the complete package.
 
Perfextionist420

Perfextionist420

Well-Known Member
I think that it is very naive and ignorant to believe we are alone in the universe, mathematically it would make sense that life exists elsewhere in the universe. Then the question arises why wouldn't we have plain and simple contact. If an alien race had managed to master space travel that can allow them to arrive at earth it would stand to reason that they are a much more advanced than us and upon viewing our planet would conclude that we are a lost cause. In order to realistically travel the distances of the universe these beings would have to adhere to what we understand as quantum physics. In our ordinary understanding of physics it suggests that light is the fastest known speed and limit of travel (this would take countless lifetimes to reach our nearest galaxy). However in quantum physics it suggests that space and time are tangible and simultaneous which would allow a being to essentially fold space and time to appear where and when they wish.

If a race had managed to discover and manipulate quantum physics upon viewing our world we would look hopeless, the fact of the matter is we as a species possess the capability and technology to solve the vast majority of our problems here on earth but lack the uniformed interest to address the issues. Violence and self preservation is hardwired into our minds and the average person lacks the ability to let go of this.


I don't personally know for a fact that alien life exists in the universe as I haven't experienced it first hand. I just believe that logically and mathematically it would make sense life exists elsewhere.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

Well-Known Member
Alien Abduction at least falls into the realm of possibility. When I say some mistakes of logic/perception/memory lead people to the false belief in aliens, it's true. People are fooled everyday into thinking that ordinary things are UFO's, fooled into thinking they have memories of abduction, mistake well understood and documented phenomena like sleep paralysis for abduction... whether or not it actually happens outside of these mistakes is beside the point.

Since false belief in aliens is rarely due to confirmation bias or post hoc reasoning, i'll leave further comment to another thread.


“If it’s true that our species is alone in the universe, then I’d have to say the universe aimed rather low and settled for very little” – George Carlin
 
The Ruiner

The Ruiner

Well-Known Member
Perfextionist420 said:
I think that it is very naive and ignorant to believe we are alone in the universe, mathematically it would make sense that life exists elsewhere in the universe. Then the question arises why wouldn't we have plain and simple contact. If an alien race had managed to master space travel that can allow them to arrive at earth it would stand to reason that they are a much more advanced than us and upon viewing our planet would conclude that we are a lost cause. In order to realistically travel the distances of the universe these beings would have to adhere to what we understand as quantum physics. In our ordinary understanding of physics it suggests that light is the fastest known speed and limit of travel (this would take countless lifetimes to reach our nearest galaxy). However in quantum physics it suggests that space and time are tangible and simultaneous which would allow a being to essentially fold space and time to appear where and when they wish.

If a race had managed to discover and manipulate quantum physics upon viewing our world we would look hopeless, the fact of the matter is we as a species possess the capability and technology to solve the vast majority of our problems here on earth but lack the uniformed interest to address the issues. Violence and self preservation is hardwired into our minds and the average person lacks the ability to let go of this.


I don't personally know for a fact that alien life exists in the universe as I haven't experienced it first hand. I just believe that logically and mathematically it would make sense life exists elsewhere.
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As far as the part in bold, there are MANY people that would say that we do, but that we are lacking the "official" disclosure. I am one of them...I personally think that we have been and continue to be visited by 3-dimensional beings, and that we are constantly in contact with other-dimensional being as well...

The lack of official government disclosure is just another way to keep the lid on an out of control situation (but there have been some very HUGE steps taken, like the vatican hiring advisors to correlate belief in ET's with their faith, and smaller governments openly releasing their UFO data)...There are unexplained phenomena of abductions, implants, mass ufo sightings, govt harassment of whistleblowers, cattle mutiliations (which most terrestial DNA experiments are done using BOVINE-based serums), unexplained attacks on UFO's over Los Angeles...At what point does the mounting evidence trump official negligence to explain these things?

I mean seriously, if someone like Zecharia Sitchin was such a quack why did the federal government see it such a priority to take a dying man to court on trumped-up bogus terrorism charges? It just makes no sense...
 
tardis

tardis

Well-Known Member
sleeperls93 said:
Good luck to you with that!! I hope that works out for you!!! Of course ronald mcdonald is god, he invented the burgers! So retarded hawaiian stoners have something to eat!!
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Saying God made science not seem to have god is equally valid in logic to Ronald Mcdonald made God who made science not seem to have god. I'm just pointing out the rationality of your argument so you can see it clearly for yourself. If you missed that they you have lived up to your avatar picture of the character from East Bound & Down.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

Well-Known Member
The Ruiner said:
I respect your intellect man, but really alien abduction (or at least interaction) is not "silly," there are way too many unanswered questions about it...If you think it's "silly" I want to know how you can explain the work of Dr. Roger Lier as "silly."
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I shall have to research a bit about Dr. Lier before I make a thread about the mistakes that lead to belief in aliens. But for the record, I said superstitions were silly, but the same mistakes can lead to bigger false beliefs like ghosts, aliens and god, which are in fact quite serious issues. When parents withhold medical treatment for their child to instead pray for them I think that is pretty serious. When scam artists charge you big money to facilitate talking to your dead loved ones, that is pretty serious. When entire groups of people are oppressed and abused simply because they don't believe in a certain god, that is often deadly serious.
 
tardis

tardis

Well-Known Member
sleeperls93 said:
The things i have experienced are not random... and I have experienced proof.... it's not religion, it's faith... but I'm done, I'm not going to get into a debate with you so called "scholars" lmao.... your to wise lol
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No, you had a human animal phenomena of seeing patterns. Of associating say a prayer with a reaction. Because you probably prayed all the time, then one of your prayers came true, thus that is the one you recall and use to justify your belief in an illogical concept. Take for example if five times a day I fart in my hand then throw the coins in the air hopeing for all heads. after a month i'm sure a few times all heads would wind up and I would equally logically believe that farting in my hand and throwing coins up in the air brings all heads more often then not because i'll remember the chemical reactions in my brain from the times when it did happen thus intensifying my reaction and making it more memorable and easier to recall. But then agian as your minister siad i'm just the devil tryign to throw you off the path to heaven right? LOL! I love christians, they are self hypnotized and have no idea that they are hiding from the truth, all the while treating people they believe act like they actually do like shit feeling superior.

That said some of my best friends are christian ministers... but then again everyone is flawed somehow.
 
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