Is the End Near? For fossil fuels?

canndo

canndo

Well-Known Member
Hemlock said:
canndo said:
No, they can't but all in all total global rigs are one third higher than they were 10 years ago and we are producing less than we did before. Oil companies have lots and lots of leased land. Why is it that they want more and claim that there is oil under the land they don't lease?

Because there global rigs are producing less? could that why they want to try other places...come on now
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Unless the U.S. is somehow hiding all of the major oil finds for some strange purpose, the fact that global oil production is not increasing even though rigs are would indicate that we have found about all of the major fields there are. Unless you are claiming that ALL governments are forbidding drilling in new places.

The only conspiracy is the one that has oil companies and the right telling us that it is the government, rather than the more obvious - reduction of this resource.
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H

Hemlock

Well-Known Member
canndo said:
Hemlock said:
Unless the U.S. is somehow hiding all of the major oil finds for some strange purpose, the fact that global oil production is not increasing even though rigs are would indicate that we have found about all of the major fields there are. Unless you are claiming that ALL governments are forbidding drilling in new places.

The only conspiracy is the one that has oil companies and the right telling us that it is the government, rather than the more obvious - reduction of this resource.
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i never said the Gov was hiding anything. What I said was the Goverment is NOT allowing oil compaines to drill in places they think oil might be. Also I am talking about USA oil only, whether offshore or on land.
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Ernst

Ernst

Well-Known Member
Are we all in agreement that resources are finite?

If so then all wars are resource wars. Too bad any one can make a nuclear bomb.

Poor Earth.. One small nuclear flash for Man one giant blast for the Earth.

Thanks for the excellent posts.
 
canndo

canndo

Well-Known Member
Let us look at FACTS.

Not wishful thinking not an imaginary cavalry coming to our rescue in our time of need.

1. The Gwhar field is the largest on earth, it covers some 2,000 square miles. It was discovered in 1948. It is nearly impossible for another such find to be left undiscovered anywhere on earth.
2. The last "super giant" field is the Cantarell in Mexico. That field was discovered in 1975, it is the very last field outside of Saudi Arabia to have EVER been found which would yield over a million brls a day. Production peaked in that field in 2003.
3. Very very few finds throughout history have been super large or bigger fields.

Now let us talk about the profiles of the last discoverd super giant fields in the world - that is, fields that produced more than a million brls a day for any length of time.

Oseberg, online 1988, peak 1994 current production less than 200,000 brls per day
Brent, online 1977, peak 1983, current production 50,000 brls
Gullfaks, online 1986, peak 1994, current production 150,000 brls a day
Prudhoe, online 1976, peak 1981, currenpt production 400,000 brls a day
Slaughter, online 1940, peak 1975, current production 45,000 brls a day
Romanshkino, online, 1952, peak 1970 current production 200,000 brls a day
Forties, online 1975, peak 1980, current production 55,000 brls a day
Samotior, online 1970, peak 1979, current production 600,000 brls a day


See the pattern here? These are the largest fields discovered outside of Saudi Arabia. Sure, we will continue to find oil deposits but they are tiny in comparison to the big wells and we need 4 to 7 Ghwar fields, the largest field BY FAR in the world. Even if we are very very lucky and find one more, we still need at least 3 beyond that. We have not found a field that is capable of immediately producing over a million brls a day in 30 years. That is not for lack of looking.

Now look at U.S. crude prodcuction. It was 4.5 million brls a day in 1945. It peaked (as Hubert predicted) in about 1970. We had a secondary spike when Pruhdoe bay came online in 1985. We now produce less than 6 million brls a day in the U.S. The government has nothing to do with the fact that there isn't any more, if there were large depsits we would know where they are. Hell We've known about Bakken for a long time..

There is a whole lot of oil left in the fields I mentioned but they will never and can never produce over a million brls a day no matter what technology is employed. As I said, the point is not how much oil but how much can be produced at any moment in time. We are running out.
 
H

Hemlock

Well-Known Member
Ok so we go back to my point which was all the easy to find oil is gone and now we have to figure out how to make smaller depisits work.
So even if all the large deposits have been found which I doubt, the smaller one and thats a realtive term, will have to supply us.
The world is a big place I doubt we have found the 1/2 of whats avaible.
 
Boonierat

Boonierat

Well-Known Member
There was a figure that we were in the nineties percentile range of the possible total oil fields we have found. I'll see if I can find it again. On top of that, nobody is arguing with you that we are going to COMPLETELY run out of oil. We have just been saying we CANNOT keep up with the demand for energy at the current rate.

And guy, the world is no longer such a big place. We have satellites that have mapped the entire earth. We have had survey teams looking for oil for over a century. Come on now, get real.
 
canndo

canndo

Well-Known Member
Hemlock said:
Ok so we go back to my point which was all the easy to find oil is gone and now we have to figure out how to make smaller depisits work.
So even if all the large deposits have been found which I doubt, the smaller one and thats a realtive term, will have to supply us.
The world is a big place I doubt we have found the 1/2 of whats avaible.
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Hemlock, as I said, we have not found a super field in 35 years or more. Some point to a find of 2 or 3 billion brls recoverable and say this is what we have been waiting for but we in this country alone use 20 million brls A DAY. The world is a big place but not so big that we blindly drill until we find a field, engineers know what they are doing and it's hard to miss a field 2,000 square miles in size. It is hard to miss a 200 square mile field. Now, consider how many fields we have to find that each yield 500,000 brls a day in order to match global demand. The saudis still supply between 5 and 8 million brls a day, and their time is running short, Ghawar is already pumping water cuts of over 30 percent, some say 50 percent. We alone will need to find FOURTY half million brls a day in order to keep us going and we only use a quarter of all the oil in the world. After that, consider that these smaller fields only yield maximum production for a few years. As I said before it isn't how much oil in the ground, it is how much that can safely be produced. No manager will risk future production of his field in order to pump at full capacity- they all saw what happened in Russia.

There is no winning this and the sooner the average person begins to understand it the better off we will all be. When Ghawar goes off peak, 5 to 7 percent of all the oil production in the world goes with it. No amount of wishing we could find that next super field will make it happen unless we get fabulsously lucky at the poles or find some wonderfield in deep water. Yet everyone who claims that there are no oil problems is hoping presuming the ball falls on green double zero. That is a piss poor way to manage an economy and a civilization.
 
canndo

canndo

Well-Known Member
Boonierat said:
There was a figure that we were in the nineties percentile range of the possible total oil fields we have found. I'll see if I can find it again. On top of that, nobody is arguing with you that we are going to COMPLETELY run out of oil. We have just been saying we CANNOT keep up with the demand for energy at the current rate.

And guy, the world is no longer such a big place. We have satellites that have mapped the entire earth. We have had survey teams looking for oil for over a century. Come on now, get real.
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As my figures on the big fields show, no, we won't run out of oil. All we have to do is fall consistantly short by a million or so brls a day - that is all it will take. Current held reserves are about that - of poor grade thick oil, that is about all the buffer we have.
 
Boonierat

Boonierat

Well-Known Member
Of course, to get lucky at the poles you would have to figure out how to bore through a couple miles of MOVING ice....

Like we have been saying. Running out of oil is not what is going to break everything. It is the shortages. That is when the crisis will start.

Now, the following is my personal opinion: The shortages are closer than we think. Gods, I hope I'm wrong, though I believe no matter what one day it will happen.
 
Boonierat

Boonierat

Well-Known Member
Really? That oil field supposedly would meet oil demand, globally, for three months. Nice try on the sound effects though. Almost lends credibility to your statement, almost.
 
The Ruiner

The Ruiner

Well-Known Member
Boonierat said:
Of course not. I was speaking to the other person posting sound effects at the end of their posts... :roll:
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Wow...a smart ass without a sense of humor. Anyway, its a joke if you are too stoned to notice humor when it bites you in the ass... Here is a post of mine from a thread asking why Obama went to Brazil and gave them some money to start drilling...

The Ruiner said:
For the OP:

Obama is encouraging Brazil to drill off shore to try and exploit the supposed super-field the "Tupi"... The problem is that they can barely even reach the oil they have already placed massive bets on drilling, I mean MASSIVE like say 80% of the worlds offshore drilling fleet...and they cant even reach the damn stuff. The US is trying to offer help in exchange for access which puts directly at odds with the "C" of the BRIC countries. But, it puts Brazil in a sensitive situation diplomatically since they have pretty much hedged their entire economic success on the Tupi project and are losing money hand over fist. But they really should have planned it out a lot better, I mean, leasing 80% of the worlds drilling fleet before you have the technology to even reach the oil? What the hell were they thinking? Also, what the hell is happening in Costa Rica? I digress...
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Boonierat

Boonierat

Well-Known Member
lol. My bad. Sorry that I didn't link those two posts together... Forgive me but I didn't even remember you posting that.
 
canndo

canndo

Well-Known Member
8 billion brls is not a super field. looks like it is yeilding about 100,000 brls per day. Not even as much as some of the tertiary fields in Arabia. As I said, no super fields have been found in decades. What I find ever so fascinating is how so many people cling only to hope - forget facts, forget logic. This is the way things have always been and someone somewhere will come to our rescue and keep things... the way they have always been. I imagine it was like this at the end of every civilization of man. No no, the hords will be beaten back, they always have. No no, more trees will grow, we didn't cut them ALL down putting up our statues.

It is so sad and frankly, I can't see anything that any individual can do to prepare.
 
The Ruiner

The Ruiner

Well-Known Member
canndo said:
8 billion brls is not a super field. looks like it is yeilding about 100,000 brls per day. Not even as much as some of the tertiary fields in Arabia. As I said, no super fields have been found in decades. What I find ever so fascinating is how so many people cling only to hope - forget facts, forget logic. This is the way things have always been and someone somewhere will come to our rescue and keep things... the way they have always been. I imagine it was like this at the end of every civilization of man. No no, the hords will be beaten back, they always have. No no, more trees will grow, we didn't cut them ALL down putting up our statues.

It is so sad and frankly, I can't see anything that any individual can do to prepare.
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I can’t agree with you more about this point. I put the emphasis on "individual" because overcoming this obstacle will take solidified effort on behalf of just about EVERYONE. Personally, to me, that means a good place for people to start is to one, educate themselves with raw data and facts (skip the rhetoric, it will save us all valuable time), then secondly begin to understand and actually appreciate the efforts that are essentially being made on OUR behalf by that of our government to preserve what immense freedom and luxury we actually have here in the States. You can skip step one if the idea of finite resources seems reasonable, but step two is definitely harder to do, and likewise accept.

I spent over a decade of my life failing to realize what exactly the work of government was...For years I called out every last little fucking perceived wrong-doing with passion. To be honest, that continued up until March 11. Something happened that day that affected me deeper than 9/11 did (sorry, it’s true). I realized that things were about to change, dramatically.

We have a great thing going here, folks. I want to keep it that way. I can tell you with all certainty and sincerity that nobody, not anyone person out there, has an answer that will satisfy us all. I have been merely pleading with people to acquiesce with the notion that yes, while many things seem "wrong," there are a whole lot more things that are "right" happening in regards to our governments' foreign and domestic policy. I am not saying that they are all saints, and I am definitely not saying that there aren't some that deserve a severe ass-whooping, but as a whole, I stand to support my Country in its decisions.

It is undeniable that we are all products of our privilege as Americans. We support a standard of living for so many people that it would be unthinkable to consider such luxury for so many 100 years ago. I would say that means our government is doing something RIGHT. It took me a long time to see that, because I am an improver (though my name doesn’t necessarily reflect that) - I always want things to be better...but sometimes everything that can be done (realistically speaking) is being done.

The third step is cooperation, organization. We will have to drop the differences that divide us and focus on how to persevere as a People, as a Country.
 
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