Is the End Near? For fossil fuels?
- Thread starter Ernst
- Start date
canndo
Well-Known Member
Let us look at FACTS.
Not wishful thinking not an imaginary cavalry coming to our rescue in our time of need.
1. The Gwhar field is the largest on earth, it covers some 2,000 square miles. It was discovered in 1948. It is nearly impossible for another such find to be left undiscovered anywhere on earth.
2. The last "super giant" field is the Cantarell in Mexico. That field was discovered in 1975, it is the very last field outside of Saudi Arabia to have EVER been found which would yield over a million brls a day. Production peaked in that field in 2003.
3. Very very few finds throughout history have been super large or bigger fields.
Now let us talk about the profiles of the last discoverd super giant fields in the world - that is, fields that produced more than a million brls a day for any length of time.
Oseberg, online 1988, peak 1994 current production less than 200,000 brls per day
Brent, online 1977, peak 1983, current production 50,000 brls
Gullfaks, online 1986, peak 1994, current production 150,000 brls a day
Prudhoe, online 1976, peak 1981, currenpt production 400,000 brls a day
Slaughter, online 1940, peak 1975, current production 45,000 brls a day
Romanshkino, online, 1952, peak 1970 current production 200,000 brls a day
Forties, online 1975, peak 1980, current production 55,000 brls a day
Samotior, online 1970, peak 1979, current production 600,000 brls a day
See the pattern here? These are the largest fields discovered outside of Saudi Arabia. Sure, we will continue to find oil deposits but they are tiny in comparison to the big wells and we need 4 to 7 Ghwar fields, the largest field BY FAR in the world. Even if we are very very lucky and find one more, we still need at least 3 beyond that. We have not found a field that is capable of immediately producing over a million brls a day in 30 years. That is not for lack of looking.
Now look at U.S. crude prodcuction. It was 4.5 million brls a day in 1945. It peaked (as Hubert predicted) in about 1970. We had a secondary spike when Pruhdoe bay came online in 1985. We now produce less than 6 million brls a day in the U.S. The government has nothing to do with the fact that there isn't any more, if there were large depsits we would know where they are. Hell We've known about Bakken for a long time..
There is a whole lot of oil left in the fields I mentioned but they will never and can never produce over a million brls a day no matter what technology is employed. As I said, the point is not how much oil but how much can be produced at any moment in time. We are running out.
Not wishful thinking not an imaginary cavalry coming to our rescue in our time of need.
1. The Gwhar field is the largest on earth, it covers some 2,000 square miles. It was discovered in 1948. It is nearly impossible for another such find to be left undiscovered anywhere on earth.
2. The last "super giant" field is the Cantarell in Mexico. That field was discovered in 1975, it is the very last field outside of Saudi Arabia to have EVER been found which would yield over a million brls a day. Production peaked in that field in 2003.
3. Very very few finds throughout history have been super large or bigger fields.
Now let us talk about the profiles of the last discoverd super giant fields in the world - that is, fields that produced more than a million brls a day for any length of time.
Oseberg, online 1988, peak 1994 current production less than 200,000 brls per day
Brent, online 1977, peak 1983, current production 50,000 brls
Gullfaks, online 1986, peak 1994, current production 150,000 brls a day
Prudhoe, online 1976, peak 1981, currenpt production 400,000 brls a day
Slaughter, online 1940, peak 1975, current production 45,000 brls a day
Romanshkino, online, 1952, peak 1970 current production 200,000 brls a day
Forties, online 1975, peak 1980, current production 55,000 brls a day
Samotior, online 1970, peak 1979, current production 600,000 brls a day
See the pattern here? These are the largest fields discovered outside of Saudi Arabia. Sure, we will continue to find oil deposits but they are tiny in comparison to the big wells and we need 4 to 7 Ghwar fields, the largest field BY FAR in the world. Even if we are very very lucky and find one more, we still need at least 3 beyond that. We have not found a field that is capable of immediately producing over a million brls a day in 30 years. That is not for lack of looking.
Now look at U.S. crude prodcuction. It was 4.5 million brls a day in 1945. It peaked (as Hubert predicted) in about 1970. We had a secondary spike when Pruhdoe bay came online in 1985. We now produce less than 6 million brls a day in the U.S. The government has nothing to do with the fact that there isn't any more, if there were large depsits we would know where they are. Hell We've known about Bakken for a long time..
There is a whole lot of oil left in the fields I mentioned but they will never and can never produce over a million brls a day no matter what technology is employed. As I said, the point is not how much oil but how much can be produced at any moment in time. We are running out.
Ok so we go back to my point which was all the easy to find oil is gone and now we have to figure out how to make smaller depisits work.
So even if all the large deposits have been found which I doubt, the smaller one and thats a realtive term, will have to supply us.
The world is a big place I doubt we have found the 1/2 of whats avaible.
So even if all the large deposits have been found which I doubt, the smaller one and thats a realtive term, will have to supply us.
The world is a big place I doubt we have found the 1/2 of whats avaible.
Boonierat
Well-Known Member
There was a figure that we were in the nineties percentile range of the possible total oil fields we have found. I'll see if I can find it again. On top of that, nobody is arguing with you that we are going to COMPLETELY run out of oil. We have just been saying we CANNOT keep up with the demand for energy at the current rate.
And guy, the world is no longer such a big place. We have satellites that have mapped the entire earth. We have had survey teams looking for oil for over a century. Come on now, get real.
And guy, the world is no longer such a big place. We have satellites that have mapped the entire earth. We have had survey teams looking for oil for over a century. Come on now, get real.
canndo
Well-Known Member
Hemlock, as I said, we have not found a super field in 35 years or more. Some point to a find of 2 or 3 billion brls recoverable and say this is what we have been waiting for but we in this country alone use 20 million brls A DAY. The world is a big place but not so big that we blindly drill until we find a field, engineers know what they are doing and it's hard to miss a field 2,000 square miles in size. It is hard to miss a 200 square mile field. Now, consider how many fields we have to find that each yield 500,000 brls a day in order to match global demand. The saudis still supply between 5 and 8 million brls a day, and their time is running short, Ghawar is already pumping water cuts of over 30 percent, some say 50 percent. We alone will need to find FOURTY half million brls a day in order to keep us going and we only use a quarter of all the oil in the world. After that, consider that these smaller fields only yield maximum production for a few years. As I said before it isn't how much oil in the ground, it is how much that can safely be produced. No manager will risk future production of his field in order to pump at full capacity- they all saw what happened in Russia.
There is no winning this and the sooner the average person begins to understand it the better off we will all be. When Ghawar goes off peak, 5 to 7 percent of all the oil production in the world goes with it. No amount of wishing we could find that next super field will make it happen unless we get fabulsously lucky at the poles or find some wonderfield in deep water. Yet everyone who claims that there are no oil problems is hoping presuming the ball falls on green double zero. That is a piss poor way to manage an economy and a civilization.
canndo
Well-Known Member
As my figures on the big fields show, no, we won't run out of oil. All we have to do is fall consistantly short by a million or so brls a day - that is all it will take. Current held reserves are about that - of poor grade thick oil, that is about all the buffer we have.
Boonierat
Well-Known Member
Of course, to get lucky at the poles you would have to figure out how to bore through a couple miles of MOVING ice....
Like we have been saying. Running out of oil is not what is going to break everything. It is the shortages. That is when the crisis will start.
Now, the following is my personal opinion: The shortages are closer than we think. Gods, I hope I'm wrong, though I believe no matter what one day it will happen.
Like we have been saying. Running out of oil is not what is going to break everything. It is the shortages. That is when the crisis will start.
Now, the following is my personal opinion: The shortages are closer than we think. Gods, I hope I'm wrong, though I believe no matter what one day it will happen.
The Ruiner
Well-Known Member
What about the "Tupi" field.... [video=youtube;K7yOzw4zAOI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7yOzw4zAOI[/video]
The Ruiner
Well-Known Member
Is that directed towards me?
The Ruiner
Well-Known Member
Of course not. I was speaking to the other person posting sound effects at the end of their posts...
Wow...a smart ass without a sense of humor. Anyway, its a joke if you are too stoned to notice humor when it bites you in the ass... Here is a post of mine from a thread asking why Obama went to Brazil and gave them some money to start drilling...
The Ruiner
Well-Known Member
Its all good...I dont expect anyone to be an encyclopedia rollitupica.
canndo
Well-Known Member
8 billion brls is not a super field. looks like it is yeilding about 100,000 brls per day. Not even as much as some of the tertiary fields in Arabia. As I said, no super fields have been found in decades. What I find ever so fascinating is how so many people cling only to hope - forget facts, forget logic. This is the way things have always been and someone somewhere will come to our rescue and keep things... the way they have always been. I imagine it was like this at the end of every civilization of man. No no, the hords will be beaten back, they always have. No no, more trees will grow, we didn't cut them ALL down putting up our statues.
It is so sad and frankly, I can't see anything that any individual can do to prepare.
It is so sad and frankly, I can't see anything that any individual can do to prepare.
The Ruiner
Well-Known Member
I can’t agree with you more about this point. I put the emphasis on "individual" because overcoming this obstacle will take solidified effort on behalf of just about EVERYONE. Personally, to me, that means a good place for people to start is to one, educate themselves with raw data and facts (skip the rhetoric, it will save us all valuable time), then secondly begin to understand and actually appreciate the efforts that are essentially being made on OUR behalf by that of our government to preserve what immense freedom and luxury we actually have here in the States. You can skip step one if the idea of finite resources seems reasonable, but step two is definitely harder to do, and likewise accept.
I spent over a decade of my life failing to realize what exactly the work of government was...For years I called out every last little fucking perceived wrong-doing with passion. To be honest, that continued up until March 11. Something happened that day that affected me deeper than 9/11 did (sorry, it’s true). I realized that things were about to change, dramatically.
We have a great thing going here, folks. I want to keep it that way. I can tell you with all certainty and sincerity that nobody, not anyone person out there, has an answer that will satisfy us all. I have been merely pleading with people to acquiesce with the notion that yes, while many things seem "wrong," there are a whole lot more things that are "right" happening in regards to our governments' foreign and domestic policy. I am not saying that they are all saints, and I am definitely not saying that there aren't some that deserve a severe ass-whooping, but as a whole, I stand to support my Country in its decisions.
It is undeniable that we are all products of our privilege as Americans. We support a standard of living for so many people that it would be unthinkable to consider such luxury for so many 100 years ago. I would say that means our government is doing something RIGHT. It took me a long time to see that, because I am an improver (though my name doesn’t necessarily reflect that) - I always want things to be better...but sometimes everything that can be done (realistically speaking) is being done.
The third step is cooperation, organization. We will have to drop the differences that divide us and focus on how to persevere as a People, as a Country.