Is the End Near? For fossil fuels?

[londonfog]

how about we all get lots and lots and lots of hamsters to keep running on their wheel thingy to create energy for homes...

 

[The Ruiner]

how about we all get lots and lots and lots of hamsters to keep running on their wheel thingy to create energy for homes...

We would need a lot of hamsters, that's for sure.

 

[The Ruiner]

Thanks FDD...

 

[canndo]

Wow...a smart ass without a sense of humor. Anyway, its a joke if you are too stoned to notice humor when it bites you in the ass... Here is a post of mine from a thread asking why Obama went to Brazil and gave them some money to start drilling...

Did they ever acknowlege your explaination on that thread or are they still doing what conservative types do best - compartmentalize and hate Obama for the way he combs his hair.

 

[NoDrama]

He combs his hair? What hair? Its like 1/8 inch long, it needs no combing.

 

[Hemlock]

8 billion brls is not a super field. looks like it is yeilding about 100,000 brls per day. Not even as much as some of the tertiary fields in Arabia. As I said, no super fields have been found in decades. What I find ever so fascinating is how so many people cling only to hope - forget facts, forget logic. This is the way things have always been and someone somewhere will come to our rescue and keep things... the way they have always been. I imagine it was like this at the end of every civilization of man. No no, the hords will be beaten back, they always have. No no, more trees will grow, we didn't cut them ALL down putting up our statues.

It is so sad and frankly, I can't see anything that any individual can do to prepare.

well hell lets all get the rope and chair..whata grim world you live in my friend.

I'm just a dumb conservative but I think the word you are looking for is Cognitive dissonance.
An I have faith in American ingenunity. We'll come up with something. And again I don't agree that all the big finds are found we have yet to properly drill off the west coast, NE coast.

 

[canndo]

You see there is unwarranted optimism and there is reality. Reality says that for something as valuable as oil we search everwhere all the time. "properly" drilling includes test wells in regions where we think there is oil. As I have said, the large fields are hundreds of square miles, they are not minute targets and we can do much to find correct formations without drilling at all. So far as coming up with an alternative, i have been heavily involved in the alternative fuel industry for a number of years. Hydrogen is a joke and many of us laughed when Bush pointed to it as our salvation. We have 50 years at the very least. Solar? it is wonderful, but all advances are incremental. Wind? great as well but the intersections of windy places with short runs to cities are few. Some of the ocean technologies are great but have decades before they can come online and will provide only a fraction of what we need. Bio fuels can play a very pivotal role but HEY - conservativeslook down their collective noses at such measures preferring to do as you are doing "I just have faith that we will find those 6 Ghawar fields, in the 5 percent of the planet that has not been surveyed" Having faith that someone will come save us as we go careening toward that final drop off is sweet, but that isn't the way the world really works.

 

[The Ruiner]

Did they ever acknowlege your explaination on that thread or are they still doing what conservative types do best - compartmentalize and hate Obama for the way he combs his hair.

There was reconcillation...It's all good in my hood.

 

[Boonierat]

HEY - conservativeslook down their collective noses at such measures preferring to do as you are doing "I just have faith that we will find those 6 Ghawar fields, in the 5 percent of the planet that has not been surveyed" Having faith that someone will come save us as we go careening toward that final drop off is sweet, but that isn't the way the world really works.

That is exactly right. It's the definition of apathy! The majority of people in America have become so comfortable with their lifestyles, either they are just apathetic, or in denial. Example, was talking to some close friends about this exact subject. The going idea around here is that, oh well, I'm just gonna ride it out and see what happens, THEY'll figure something out. That's the problem though. Who's THEY? Those scientists that have been working on alternative energy for years and STILL cannot figure out how we are going to replace our current demand for energy without light crude oil? Those guys? lol. It's like getting into a car with an obviously drunk man. You KNOW you may all wreck and die, but oh well, we'll see what happens. Why not take the wheel?

And by this, I mean at least recognize there is a very large problem here. I find it hard to believe there is a very large amount of untapped oil waiting anywhere. What are we going to do about it? No clue. I have my own opinion that our current lifestyles are going to dramatically change.

 

[Hemlock]

I think everyone knows theres a problem. But no one really knows what to do. IMO one of the things you can do it decentralize and relocalize. Learn to grow food and barter with others close to you have a plan. But I wouldn't kill us all off just yet we have been at times very good at adapting and overcoming. Theres that blind faith in American ingenuity!

 

[doc111]

That is exactly right. It's the definition of apathy! The majority of people in America have become so comfortable with their lifestyles, either they are just apathetic, or in denial. Example, was talking to some close friends about this exact subject. The going idea around here is that, oh well, I'm just gonna ride it out and see what happens, THEY'll figure something out. That's the problem though. Who's THEY? Those scientists that have been working on alternative energy for years and STILL cannot figure out how we are going to replace our current demand for energy without light crude oil? Those guys? lol. It's like getting into a car with an obviously drunk man. You KNOW you may all wreck and die, but oh well, we'll see what happens. Why not take the wheel?

And by this, I mean at least recognize there is a very large problem here. I find it hard to believe there is a very large amount of untapped oil waiting anywhere. What are we going to do about it? No clue. I have my own opinion that our current lifestyles are going to dramatically change.

Oh, don't worry. They have a replacement for crude. They actually have a few. Biodiesel being one of the many. The problem is that it is still cheaper to produce a gallon of gas than it is to produce a gallon of (insert alternative fuel source here). Once it becomes more expensive to refine crude into gas/diesel then you will see us switching over. It won't happen before that.

 

[Boonierat]

I don't disagree with you that other alternative energies will be used, and I also agree that they will get cheaper as oil products rise in price. I just don't believe that we can put out the same amount of energy that we are consuming now. One way or the other, the basic lifestyle of the American citizen is going to change whether we like it or not.

 

[canndo]

I think everyone knows theres a problem. But no one really knows what to do. IMO one of the things you can do it decentralize and relocalize. Learn to grow food and barter with others close to you have a plan. But I wouldn't kill us all off just yet we have been at times very good at adapting and overcoming. Theres that blind faith in American ingenuity!

No, actually there are a hell of a lot of people who don't know there is a problem. Any "drill here drill now" teaparty person actually thinks that their government is the problem and that there is an endless supply if only the bad old gubmint would let big oil do as it pleases. These are the people that are going to sink us - the ones that think freedom consists of being able to buy any kind of lightbulb they want.

Imagine you and I and the rest of us are on a cruise ship. There is a certain amount of fresh water on that ship and we are pretty sure we know how much there is. There is a large contingent of passengers who are dead certain that somewhere aboard there is more but they don't know where and they know that most of the ship has already been searched. That contingent believes that rationing is not the American way and insists that everyone can have as much as they can afford - to hell with those who are in the interior rooms - and the crew for that matter. There is also a contingent who is quite certain that before we all drop dead of thirst someone who may or may not actually be on board will figure out how to desalinize enough water for everyone to drink - using only the components and energy that can be gotten from the ship.

And of course there is a contingent, a small one who insists that there might be more, someone might be able to rescue us but until then it would be wise to ration what we have.

 

[canndo]

Oh, don't worry. They have a replacement for crude. They actually have a few. Biodiesel being one of the many. The problem is that it is still cheaper to produce a gallon of gas than it is to produce a gallon of (insert alternative fuel source here). Once it becomes more expensive to refine crude into gas/diesel then you will see us switching over. It won't happen before that.

Are you familiar with bioD Doc? firstly, a major component of Bio happens to be methanol, now where do you suppose we get methanol currently? Secondy the majority of feedstock for bio currently is soy - if I recall my figures correctly we can get about 60 gallons per acre from soy. I'll not do the math for you - we use 20 million brls a day. That's a lot of acres. Now, most of the bioD today is a 10, 20 or even 30 percent mix. 100 percent is an invitation to all sorts of problems because you see BioD solidifies in the filters and lines starting below about 55 degrees. It's good stuff, no doubt but it is only part of an answer even if we were to use a more socialy acceptable feed stock. Tell that to Big Ag who would never dream of working with something that doesn't make them a ton of money.

 

[Boonierat]

Not to mention, for mass scale farming of anything it requires lots of oil. As an example, ethanol falls flat on it's face, at a 1 to 1 energy input to energy gain ratio. Has anyone ever seen the rows of very large tractors running off of diesel harvesting corn? Or any idea how much fertilizer and pesticides (both made from oil products) it takes to even make modern growing viable?

 

[doc111]

Are you familiar with bioD Doc? firstly, a major component of Bio happens to be methanol, now where do you suppose we get methanol currently? Secondy the majority of feedstock for bio currently is soy - if I recall my figures correctly we can get about 60 gallons per acre from soy. I'll not do the math for you - we use 20 million brls a day. That's a lot of acres. Now, most of the bioD today is a 10, 20 or even 30 percent mix. 100 percent is an invitation to all sorts of problems because you see BioD solidifies in the filters and lines starting below about 55 degrees. It's good stuff, no doubt but it is only part of an answer even if we were to use a more socialy acceptable feed stock. Tell that to Big Ag who would never dream of working with something that doesn't make them a ton of money.

lol! I'm VERY familiar with BioD. Apparently my whole point was lost on you. Of course there's nothing that can replace crude............at the moment. We have numerous other alternative energy sources though. The technology isn't there yet to produce most of them as cheaply and as plentifully as we'd like but as the cost of fossil fuels rise and the cost of alternative fuel sources falls (and the technology improves) you will start to see the transition off of fossil fuels.

 

[jeff f]

Hey canndo, the sky is falling? Are you sure you aren't carl sagon? Or that nutcase that sang about ddt killing all animal life?

 

[canndo]

lol! I'm VERY familiar with BioD. Apparently my whole point was lost on you. Of course there's nothing that can replace crude............at the moment. We have numerous other alternative energy sources though. The technology isn't there yet to produce most of them as cheaply and as plentifully as we'd like but as the cost of fossil fuels rise and the cost of alternative fuel sources falls (and the technology improves) you will start to see the transition off of fossil fuels.

My point Doc is that there never will be. We got lucky, we found that millions of years of energy was stored a little bit at a time under the ground. That is over, that time is past, I think we could have done better with what we have but hey, that is the way man works, man will always be a plunderer. You are familiar with BioD so you know my numbers are correct, we could talk about algae, a shining potential but even that would take the size of several states - sunny states I might add, in order to provide our country's current oil needs. This, contrary to what so many "the market will provide" types believe, is not an economic matter. These fuels will not rush in to fill an economic niche when the price of fuel goes high enough.

Why? Because there is no infrastructure, there is no gradual slope where other "ideas" smoothly take over. We see the price of fuel soar to $4.50 a gallon in months. Imagine it going to $9.00 in under a year. Now what Doc? What happens in your scenario? People just go out and get diesel cars and switch fuel at their local 7-11? Airlines just start putting Av grade Bio in their turbines and jets?

 

[canndo]

Hey canndo, the sky is falling? Are you sure you aren't carl sagon? Or that nutcase that sang about ddt killing all animal life?

This isn't DDT, this is a way of life for a civilization. Jeff? Do you think that other civilizations rose AND fell? I think that there must have been some who had the same rosey picture of life you do.
Who are you on that cruise ship I mentioned?

 

[doc111]

My point Doc is that there never will be. We got lucky, we found that millions of years of energy was stored a little bit at a time under the ground. That is over, that time is past, I think we could have done better with what we have but hey, that is the way man works, man will always be a plunderer. You are familiar with BioD so you know my numbers are correct, we could talk about algae, a shining potential but even that would take the size of several states - sunny states I might add, in order to provide our country's current oil needs. This, contrary to what so many "the market will provide" types believe, is not an economic matter. These fuels will not rush in to fill an economic niche when the price of fuel goes high enough.

Why? Because there is no infrastructure, there is no gradual slope where other "ideas" smoothly take over. We see the price of fuel soar to $4.50 a gallon in months. Imagine it going to $9.00 in under a year. Now what Doc? What happens in your scenario? People just go out and get diesel cars and switch fuel at their local 7-11? Airlines just start putting Av grade Bio in their turbines and jets?

Ummmm, what's your point? I never said that there wouldn't be problems with crude supply or volatility in the markets..........did I? I firmly believe that we will find a replacement or replacements for petroleum. There wasn't infrastructure at the beginning of WWII to produce tanks, ships and planes on a mass scale. We solved that problem. There wasn't infrastructure in place for the enrichment of Uranium and Plutonium production at the beginning of WWII. This is a pretty big undertaking and we solved this problem. Nobody knows what the future holds. We, as a society, are addicted to petroleum and it's many byproducts. Addicts always freak the fuck out whenever they go off of whatever it is they are hooked on. I expect this to be not much different (on a mass scale). The war for control of the last drops of this amazing substance is being fought as we speak. Could it have been managed better? Hindsight is always 20/20. Mankind is capable of amazing things when pressed. Don't count us out just yet.

What is your solution to this problem?