Is the End Near? For fossil fuels?

[canndo]

Ummmm, what's your point? I never said that there wouldn't be problems with crude supply or volatility in the markets..........did I? I firmly believe that we will find a replacement or replacements for petroleum. There wasn't infrastructure at the beginning of WWII to produce tanks, ships and planes on a mass scale. We solved that problem. There wasn't infrastructure in place for the enrichment of Uranium and Plutonium production at the beginning of WWII. This is a pretty big undertaking and we solved this problem. Nobody knows what the future holds. We, as a society, are addicted to petroleum and it's many byproducts. Addicts always freak the fuck out whenever they go off of whatever it is they are hooked on. I expect this to be not much different (on a mass scale). The war for control of the last drops of this amazing substance is being fought as we speak. Could it have been managed better? Hindsight is always 20/20. Mankind is capable of amazing things when pressed. Don't count us out just yet.

What is your solution to this problem?

Small scale. All of what you are talking about is small scale compared to this. There are 251 million cars in the U.S. There are 115,000 gas stations. In a wartime effort we managed to manufacture TWO, only TWO bombs and it took thousands of people to do that. Mankind is indeed capapble of large endeavors but rarely in the face of an emergency of its own making. We don't do well under that sort of pressure. Want proof? We are told over and over again not to worry about our fuel situation. The correct thing to be doing (if you and I agree that there is a looming problem) is to begin now, to change over to something more dependable but instead we are told that there is nothing to worry about. It will take 20 years or more to convert our infrastructure to something new. I have been in this buisiness in one capapcity or another for more than 15 years now. Here is the straight dope - virutally nothing is being done and we are already out of time. Confidence in man's inginuity and resourcefulness is hindering our abilty to transition and nothing will save us save a realization that we have work to do now. The more we put it off thinking that someone somewhere has a magic pill the more rude our final awakening.

My solution? A tax on all fossil fuels (perhaps with the exception of natural gas), a large one with increments furthering that tax every year. I am talking about a huge tax, 50 cents a gallon increased every year and every penny going toward the most innovative new ideas. Huge tax breaks for solar and wind, implementation of nuclear. All energy hogs that have alternatives made illegal, no more incandescent lights, efficiency being rewarded and inefficiency driven out of the picture. THe right won't like any of this but if the right has their way we will simply run into a wall - the same wall that they will say that none of us could have seen coming.

 

[doc111]

Small scale. All of what you are talking about is small scale compared to this. There are 251 million cars in the U.S. There are 115,000 gas stations. In a wartime effort we managed to manufacture TWO, only TWO bombs and it took thousands of people to do that. Mankind is indeed capapble of large endeavors but rarely in the face of an emergency of its own making. We don't do well under that sort of pressure. Want proof? We are told over and over again not to worry about our fuel situation. The correct thing to be doing (if you and I agree that there is a looming problem) is to begin now, to change over to something more dependable but instead we are told that there is nothing to worry about. It will take 20 years or more to convert our infrastructure to something new. I have been in this buisiness in one capapcity or another for more than 15 years now. Here is the straight dope - virutally nothing is being done and we are already out of time. Confidence in man's inginuity and resourcefulness is hindering our abilty to transition and nothing will save us save a realization that we have work to do now. The more we put it off thinking that someone somewhere has a magic pill the more rude our final awakening.

My solution? A tax on all fossil fuels (perhaps with the exception of natural gas), a large one with increments furthering that tax every year. I am talking about a huge tax, 50 cents a gallon increased every year and every penny going toward the most innovative new ideas. Huge tax breaks for solar and wind, implementation of nuclear. All energy hogs that have alternatives made illegal, no more incandescent lights, efficiency being rewarded and inefficiency driven out of the picture. THe right won't like any of this but if the right has their way we will simply run into a wall - the same wall that they will say that none of us could have seen coming.

lol! Because a tax like that wouldn't absolutely cripple our already frail economy? Rotlfmfao!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm not advocating sitting on our hands either! You seem to be drawing conclusions from my posts which simply aren't there. We DO have a lot of work to do and I agree that time is almost out. We are in for a rude awakening, I thought my addict metaphor would've clued you in. Nuclear power is currently undergoing its worst crisis to date. The public is going to be resistant to it for the forseeable future. Your precious CFL's have issues of their own, like Mercury, making disposal a problem. Wind and solar are dependent on resources that can be unreliable and are geographically limited. As technology improves, however, we may see either or both of these become more viable. I'm not advocating a "let's bury our heads in the sand and see" approach. This is a HUGE problem, I don't think anybody is arguing that, but the "fixes" seem to be nearly as painful as the problem you're trying to solve! Just over a century ago, man lived without cars and electricity. Sure, life was tougher then, but people survived. Have we de-evolved to the point of being totally dependent on fossil fuels and the many creature comforts they provide? Everything has consequences and all those consequences need to be weighed first. I really don't think another hefty tax would solve anything either. Necessity is the mother of invention.

 

[canndo]

lol! Because a tax like that wouldn't absolutely cripple our already frail economy? Rotlfmfao!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm not advocating sitting on our hands either! You seem to be drawing conclusions from my posts which simply aren't there. We DO have a lot of work to do and I agree that time is almost out. We are in for a rude awakening, I thought my addict metaphor would've clued you in. Nuclear power is currently undergoing its worst crisis to date. The public is going to be resistant to it for the forseeable future. Your precious CFL's have issues of their own, like Mercury, making disposal a problem. Wind and solar are dependent on resources that can be unreliable and are geographically limited. As technology improves, however, we may see either or both of these become more viable. I'm not advocating a "let's bury our heads in the sand and see" approach. This is a HUGE problem, I don't think anybody is arguing that, but the "fixes" seem to be nearly as painful as the problem you're trying to solve! Just over a century ago, man lived without cars and electricity. Sure, life was tougher then, but people survived. Have we de-evolved to the point of being totally dependent on fossil fuels and the many creature comforts they provide? Everything has consequences and all those consequences need to be weighed first. I really don't think another hefty tax would solve anything either. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Too late to worry about mercury, too late to worry about nuclear dangers. Had we started earlier then fine. Do you actually think an uncontroled energy price spiral would be better than a hefty tax? Sure, a tax will be unfortunate for the economy. Imagine what 11 dollar a gallon, when you can get it fuel will do to it? I think you think that fossil fuels are simply so that we can live more luxuriously - not even close, we are now to the point that abundant energy is as essential for life as food and air and water. Imagine fuel shortages in the winter for those in the east in the U.S. Do you really think they are going to tromp out to their nearest forest and chop wood (with an ax by the way, no chain saws)? Imagine any urban environment without adequate energy. What do you think uncontroled fuel costs will do to our food production? We are a far flung civilization and we depend upon each man being, in one way or another able to do the work of 10 through the use of cheap (well, aparently cheap) energy. Necessity is indeed the mother of invention but if that mother has trouble giving birth in a right timely fashion we, quite frankly, are screwed - and I don't see anything close to labor pains right now. do you?

 

[doc111]

Too late to worry about mercury, too late to worry about nuclear dangers. Had we started earlier then fine. Do you actually think an uncontroled energy price spiral would be better than a hefty tax? Sure, a tax will be unfortunate for the economy. Imagine what 11 dollar a gallon, when you can get it fuel will do to it? I think you think that fossil fuels are simply so that we can live more luxuriously - not even close, we are now to the point that abundant energy is as essential for life as food and air and water. Imagine fuel shortages in the winter for those in the east in the U.S. Do you really think they are going to tromp out to their nearest forest and chop wood (with an ax by the way, no chain saws)? Imagine any urban environment without adequate energy. What do you think uncontroled fuel costs will do to our food production? We are a far flung civilization and we depend upon each man being, in one way or another able to do the work of 10 through the use of cheap (well, aparently cheap) energy. Necessity is indeed the mother of invention but if that mother has trouble giving birth in a right timely fashion we, quite frankly, are screwed - and I don't see anything close to labor pains right now. do you?

The public perception of nuclear is a problem though. Getting anybody to agree to having a new nuke plant built in their town or nearby ain't gonna happen without a fight. A very lengthy, very expensive fight. This is exactly what killed nuclear in this country in the late 70's and 80's. Remember the 3 mile Island 'roundhouse'? How about the good ol' 'haymaker', Chernobyl? That was the one, two punch that prevented the expansion and damn near killed the nuclear power industry in this country. Too late to worry about Mercury? I'm not sure what you mean. I realize that some people wouldn't survive. I feel really bad about that but this is why I try to lead a more self sufficient existence. I assure you, me and my family would be just fine in such an event (provided we weren't overrun by hoardes of lawless Road Warrior types. lol!). I imagine these scenarios quite frequently. Although I'm not a hardcore survivalist, I am very well trained in the art of living off the land and I live in a bountiful region for harvesting all that nature has to offer. IMO, everyone should be prepared to live without electricity and cars. There's no guarantees just because we've had it all of our lives that we will continue to have it in the future. I totally agree that something needs to be done and I think we are doing more than you realize. The government is already giving incentives to companies investing in renewable/sustainable energies. There are so many working on the problem, in fact, that a quick internet search will give you an idea just how many there are. I disagree with your assertion that a hefty tax would solve this crisis. Nothing short of a miracle is going to solve this issue so you better get yourself and your family prepared if you haven't already done so.

 

[canndo]

The public perception of nuclear is a problem though. Getting anybody to agree to having a new nuke plant built in their town or nearby ain't gonna happen without a fight. A very lengthy, very expensive fight. This is exactly what killed nuclear in this country in the late 70's and 80's. Remember the 3 mile Island 'roundhouse'? How about the good ol' 'haymaker', Chernobyl? That was the one, two punch that prevented the expansion and damn near killed the nuclear power industry in this country. Too late to worry about Mercury? I'm not sure what you mean. I realize that some people wouldn't survive. I feel really bad about that but this is why I try to lead a more self sufficient existence. I assure you, me and my family would be just fine in such an event (provided we weren't overrun by hoardes of lawless Road Warrior types. lol!). I imagine these scenarios quite frequently. Although I'm not a hardcore survivalist, I am very well trained in the art of living off the land and I live in a bountiful region for harvesting all that nature has to offer. IMO, everyone should be prepared to live without electricity and cars. There's no guarantees just because we've had it all of our lives that we will continue to have it in the future. I totally agree that something needs to be done and I think we are doing more than you realize. The government is already giving incentives to companies investing in renewable/sustainable energies. There are so many working on the problem, in fact, that a quick internet search will give you an idea just how many there are. I disagree with your assertion that a hefty tax would solve this crisis. Nothing short of a miracle is going to solve this issue so you better get yourself and your family prepared if you haven't already done so.

Where I live, what I do and how I do it precludes my being as prepared as I could be. I also am somewhat proficient at living off the land, in fact my garden went in yesterday but a quarter acre won't take me through the year. My water is dependent on electricity and the house can get mighty cold with just the wood fireplace. I have enough resources to last a few months because I live on top of two major faults but I am not prepared for a global disaster and I'll wager you may not be either. Try as I might I cannot come up with a fix for all of those variables and it dosn't just include keeping a few drums of gas in my back yard. I made Bio for a living for a while and am capable of doing so again but unless they came up with that catalyst screen they were talking about, my 10 gallons of methanol won't last long. I don't much savor going back into the dark ages and I hate the thought that the right might just take us there out of its own stupidity, greed and absence of forethought.

What you are suggesting is each man for himself. What I am suggesting is enforced, gradual controlled hardship rather than chaos.

 

[doc111]

Where I live, what I do and how I do it precludes my being as prepared as I could be. I also am somewhat proficient at living off the land, in fact my garden went in yesterday but a quarter acre won't take me through the year. My water is dependent on electricity and the house can get mighty cold with just the wood fireplace. I have enough resources to last a few months because I live on top of two major faults but I am not prepared for a global disaster and I'll wager you may not be either. Try as I might I cannot come up with a fix for all of those variables and it dosn't just include keeping a few drums of gas in my back yard. I made Bio for a living for a while and am capable of doing so again but unless they came up with that catalyst screen they were talking about, my 10 gallons of methanol won't last long. I don't much savor going back into the dark ages and I hate the thought that the right might just take us there out of its own stupidity, greed and absence of forethought.

What you are suggesting is each man for himself. What I am suggesting is enforced, gradual controlled hardship rather than chaos.

I am a Libertarian so I guess I kind of am suggesting each person take care of themselves and their families. Of course not all can do this. Nobody can be prepared for every eventuality but I'm far more prepared than you might imagine. I certainly don't want to see a return to the dark ages, I hope you didn't get that from my posts, but we don't have a lot of options if we run out of fossil fuels and there is no replacement.............do we? I disagree with "enforced, gradual controlled hardship". What is that anyways? It doesn't sound too good to me. You act as if conservatives are out to destroy the planet or your way of life. That seems like an awfully narrow minded view to me. Conservatives have families and livelihoods just like the rest of us. I highly doubt they want to see our way of life destroyed. If the fix was as clear cut as you are portraying it to be, it would be a no-brainer. I'm fairly well educated and of at least average intelligence and I don't see how "forced hardship" and crippling taxes will solve anything but I'm not a member of Mensa so I really can't say. That's the whole problem with the left vs. right thingy......there is virtually no way to prove which ideology is the correct one, even in hindsight. Stop worrying about things that you have little power to change and just try to live your life in the most efficient manner you can. Fuck anybody else who thinks you aren't doing enough. What do they know anyways? lol!

 

[canndo]

I am a Libertarian so I guess I kind of am suggesting each person take care of themselves and their families. ...

I disagree with "enforced, gradual controlled hardship". What is that anyways? It doesn't sound too good to me......

You act as if conservatives are out to destroy the planet or your way of life. That seems like an awfully narrow minded view to me. Conservatives have families and livelihoods just like the rest of us. I highly doubt they want to see our way of life destroyed....

If the fix was as clear cut as you are portraying it to be, it would be a no-brainer. I'm fairly well educated and of at least average intelligence and I don't see how "forced hardship" and crippling taxes will solve anything but I'm not a member of Mensa so I really can't say. That's the whole problem with the left vs. right thingy......there is virtually no way to prove which ideology is the correct one, even in hindsight....

Stop worrying about things that you have little power to change and just try to live your life in the most efficient manner you can. Fuck anybody else who thinks you aren't doing enough. What do they know anyways? lol!

Enforced gradual hardship. I wonder how libertarians felt during world war II when there were sugar rations, gas rations and enforced hardship for everyone on the home front? Did they think it was all foolishness and the war effort was a government scam to take away their rights? There really isn't much difference between that and a war footing of that nature.

Conservatives aren't out to do anything to me, they are simply incorrect about most of their presumptions about the natural world - there is a way for us to view things, through science and logic and facts. The science, logic and facts are that we are running out of cheap oil. Anyone (I refer you to that cruise ship analogy) who claims that there is all the water anyone can drink and then goes ahead and drinks is drinking my share as well. That is a threat to my way of life.


The fix is indeed that clear but the right will see everything in terms of what is being taken from them personaly. One side would let things take their course, the other would attempt to manage chaos.

 

[jeff f]

Small scale. All of what you are talking about is small scale compared to this. There are 251 million cars in the U.S. There are 115,000 gas stations. In a wartime effort we managed to manufacture TWO, only TWO bombs and it took thousands of people to do that. Mankind is indeed capapble of large endeavors but rarely in the face of an emergency of its own making. We don't do well under that sort of pressure. Want proof? We are told over and over again not to worry about our fuel situation. The correct thing to be doing (if you and I agree that there is a looming problem) is to begin now, to change over to something more dependable but instead we are told that there is nothing to worry about. It will take 20 years or more to convert our infrastructure to something new. I have been in this buisiness in one capapcity or another for more than 15 years now. Here is the straight dope - virutally nothing is being done and we are already out of time. Confidence in man's inginuity and resourcefulness is hindering our abilty to transition and nothing will save us save a realization that we have work to do now. The more we put it off thinking that someone somewhere has a magic pill the more rude our final awakening.

My solution? A tax on all fossil fuels (perhaps with the exception of natural gas), a large one with increments furthering that tax every year. I am talking about a huge tax, 50 cents a gallon increased every year and every penny going toward the most innovative new ideas. Huge tax breaks for solar and wind, implementation of nuclear. All energy hogs that have alternatives made illegal, no more incandescent lights, efficiency being rewarded and inefficiency driven out of the picture. THe right won't like any of this but if the right has their way we will simply run into a wall - the same wall that they will say that none of us could have seen coming.

you couldnt be more wrong. it is because we have free flowing oil that we will find a replacement.

do you think there arent millions of people out there looking, researching, egineering, for alternative fuels? you cut off the oil, you just killed a lot of the ability to engineer anything.

lets look at the current situation. the price of transportation just doubled in about a year. food is going through the roof. how is that freeing things up for engineering purposes. and now it looks like inflation is going to kick in even more. and its all directly attached to oil.

thats not making the search for alternative fuel easier to attain

and your solution ideas makes you a tyrannical fascist. no really it does, look it up.

 

[newatit2010]

Well I still don't think anyone on this site will have a problem with not having gas. You might have to pay high price, but there will be gas for every one.

 

[canndo]

you couldnt be more wrong. it is because we have free flowing oil that we will find a replacement.

do you think there arent millions of people out there looking, researching, egineering, for alternative fuels? you cut off the oil, you just killed a lot of the ability to engineer anything.

lets look at the current situation. the price of transportation just doubled in about a year. food is going through the roof. how is that freeing things up for engineering purposes. and now it looks like inflation is going to kick in even more. and its all directly attached to oil.

thats not making the search for alternative fuel easier to attain

and your solution ideas makes you a tyrannical fascist. no really it does, look it up.

so you actually believe that people are going to work on alternatives without a pricepoint. Here is the truth. The price of oil fluctuates so much that no one is working on a replacement intended for mass production. Engineers don't need to "free things up" or they would have sound something when oil was at 40 bucks a brl - an that is the point. When it is cheap no one needs look for an alternative, and you say when it is expensive no one is able to.

 

[canndo]

Well I still don't think anyone on this site will have a problem with not having gas. You might have to pay high price, but there will be gas for every one.

And there you have it. If gas is 14 dollars a gallon, yes, everyone can get it, but lots can't have it. That is pretty much what I mentioned in the cruise ship analogy.

 

[jeff f]

so you actually believe that people are going to work on alternatives without a pricepoint. Here is the truth. The price of oil fluctuates so much that no one is working on a replacement intended for mass production. Engineers don't need to "free things up" or they would have sound something when oil was at 40 bucks a brl - an that is the point. When it is cheap no one needs look for an alternative, and you say when it is expensive no one is able to.

yes cuz when oil was 40 bucks a barrel the technology was exactly the same as it is now.....you really arent a 157 are you?

but you are definitely a tyrant fascist and nobody here could have pointed that out better than you with your "solution".

 

[jeff f]

And there you have it. If gas is 14 dollars a gallon, yes, everyone can get it, but lots can't have it. That is pretty much what I mentioned in the cruise ship analogy.

and thats what you want. you want my gramma and grandpa to pay 14 bucks a gallon. that would be great for the poor and elderly....fool

but all the elitist like yourself and al gore will be assured of having it

 

[The Ruiner]

and thats what you want. you want my gramma and grandpa to pay 14 bucks a gallon. that would be great for the poor and elderly....fool

but all the elitist like yourself and al gore will be assured of having it

And yet, you are resistant to understand Obama & Brazil, or Libya...What more incentive do you need?

Still clinging to the Alex Jones/Lindsey Williams dream of Alaskan Oil saving our collective ass? It's not going to happen dude. Some people are actually trying to help, and its the same people you rail against here, constantly.

Why don't you just try to say "thank you"?

 

[Hemlock]

Look people have been the predicting doom about fossil fuel for long time, and nothing happened. We shall overcome if it does come to what you say. I can tell that canndo and ruiner feel that Americans are fat and stupid. Thats sad. I believe in America, we have always lead the world and will continue to do so. Why don't we allow the oil compainies to refine the shale here in America, cause oil s to cheap, so when the end is truely in site they come up with a way to do it, canndo you think so inside the box you can't see it but the rest of us can. We know that when faced with a challenge we rise to the occasion, and we always will.

 

[The Ruiner]

Look people have been the predicting doom about fossil fuel for long time, and nothing happened. We shall overcome if it does come to what you say. I can tell that canndo and ruiner feel that Americans are fat and stupid. Thats sad. I believe in America, we have always lead the world and will continue to do so. Why don't we allow the oil compainies to refine the shale here in America, cause oil s to cheap, so when the end is truely in site they come up with a way to do it, canndo you think so inside the box you can't see it but the rest of us can. We know that when faced with a challenge we rise to the occasion, and we always will.

Wow...damn dude...that's quite a leap to make. Thanks for speaking for us, and trying to make us look bad. If we really thought that "Americans are fat & stupid" why would we be doing what we could to bring actual clarity to these issues? Essentially, why would we put the time into our posts? I think that's quite an inflammatory conjecture to draw about two people that you dont even know, or care to actually even pay attention to what they are saying.

We have already covered shale, and if you cared to research it, you would realize that it's unfeasible, and horribly destructive. I don't really think that you have done as much research into energy as you think you have...I spend literally, years of time researching energy shortages and its effects. From what I have learned, what the general (professional) consensus is, and what the actions of governments all around the world tends to be, is that oil is running out, and there is no alternative on the horizon to replace it. It's a harsh fucking reality to face, but it is reality.

 

[Hemlock]

Wow...damn dude...that's quite a leap to make. Thanks for speaking for us, and trying to make us look bad. If we really thought that "Americans are fat & stupid" why would we be doing what we could to bring actual clarity to these issues? Essentially, why would we put the time into our posts? I think that's quite an inflammatory conjecture to draw about two people that you dont even know, or care to actually even pay attention to what they are saying.

We have already covered shale, and if you cared to research it, you would realize that it's unfeasible, and horribly destructive. I don't really think that you have done as much research into energy as you think you have...I spend literally, years of time researching energy shortages and its effects. From what I have learned, what the general (professional) consensus is, and what the actions of governments all around the world tends to be, is that oil is running out, and there is no alternative on the horizon to replace it. It's a harsh fucking reality to face, but it is reality.

your and canndo reality, not mine, thinking inside the box is what will doom us. and btw I have up with this thread and think you are wrong about the shale and the tar sands, no one cares about some equation that makes you believe its unfeasible. when there is no more oil you'll be singing a different tune about shale and sand, suddenly it will become feasible. Drill here drill now, the quicker we get start3ed the quicker we will know for sure, right now you or i don't really know shit.
BTW you and canndo didn't come out and say it but you did imply that americans can't cope with your reality.

 

[Hemlock]

its easy to complain about it its harder to think of a way to solve it. just because you can measure something doesn't mean you know how much there really is it just means you can measure it.

 

[The Ruiner]

You can measure ERoEI...and it doesnt work for shale...

 

[Boonierat]

Shhhh, you can't insult their intelligence anymore with facts. Hell, might as well start saying ethanol is the way to go if it will make them feel better!