The Feds Decision
- Thread starter Balzac89
- Start date
heckler73
Well-Known Member
Are they re-balancing their portfolio?
Isn't Twist still in effect?
It could also be that primary dealers (or perhaps foreign holders) are getting out of some fixed assets? After all, if indeed the market-economy is doing "well" (whatever that means) then it makes sense to assign more weight to more liquid or dynamic assets.
The recent economic reports have been less than satisfactory to take away Fed intervention in the form of bond purchases. Only when the unemployment rate drops a few more fractions of a percentage point and gdp growth is a tinge higher will we see the Fed withdraw its temporary assistance. The markets are like babies coddled by ever attentive parents to be good and not destructive . Take away all this coaxing and cajoling right now and the baby will throw a tantrum. In the form of acting like a spoiled child that will look for any chance they can to be surly and non cooperative.
ChesusRice
Well-Known Member
Yes the Republicans are hoping the economy crashes. They have been doing everything in their power to make it happen for the last 5 years
Balzac89
Undercover Mod
The worst part is there is nothing you can do about it.
This is a cyclical bull market in a secular bear. All the news is "good" and the bull is now running on fumes, with the bear ready to resume. When the Fed floated its news trial balloon about "tapering", the market had an immediate convulsion. THAT is why the tapering idea got shitcanned. Fact is, they don't know what the fuck they are doing and perception is reality, as always, on Wall Street. Bernanke is trying to fill an ever-growing sinkhole but he isn't shoveling fast enough, nor can he or his soon-to-be-announced replacement ever do so. They are way out on a limb as it is.
That being said, I have no idea how long they can keep the illusion going. That the can kicking has gone on for five years is mind-boggling.
Rob Roy
Well-Known Member
Probably nothing will change the fact that the currency is fucked with, but you can barter in alternative methods of exchange and try to expand those channels and relationships.
Also helping to increase people's knowledge of how a real free market works might be another avenue. But, yeah...damn Nacho chips shrinking, man next it will be salsa.
Fungus Gnat
Well-Known Member
Unemployment and labor force precipitation is still low. Inflation is below the Feds target at 2%.
Too bad the Fed can't send stacks of cash to people in the mail. That might actually spur demand rather than giving 0% loans to people that don't need it and gamble it on commodities.
Too bad the Fed can't send stacks of cash to people in the mail. That might actually spur demand rather than giving 0% loans to people that don't need it and gamble it on commodities.
This is a common idea and it is wrong for a very simple reason. Say the Fed sends you $10,000. You spend it. Those factories still here go on overtime for a couple of weeks. What happens after that? You have $10,000 worth of crap that you probably didn't need in the first place and now it is likely those goods will be liquidated at a lower price than they cost as you need more money due to suddenly inflated prices of basic necessities. Now the factories go on layoff.
The virtue of capitalism is that it creates wealth. No government or central banker can create wealth. They are in the Wizard of Oz business and that ends the same, regardless of which direction they attempt to move demand in. If printing money worked, then Argentina and Zimbabwe would be the wealthiest countries on Earth. To the contrary, the only reason Argentina has experienced an illusory and temporary success is because they have COUNTRIES LIKE THE USA TO ABSORB THEIR EXPORTS. Absent that they would be (and will be), completely fucked.
Oh, and those loans you mention are being gambled primarily on equities and real estate. The only commodity that is abnormally high is oil and that has everything to do with supply/demand issues rather than speculation. That and oil producers are becoming increasingly uneasy with the Bernanke printing press.
Balzac89
Undercover Mod
Balzac89
Undercover Mod
Loans to create small businesses would be better.
NLXSK1
Well-Known Member
LOL!!!
Offer a little carrot to start a small business and then hit them with the Obamacare stick...
Real economic growth will not happen under this economically clueless president.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
Home prices continue to climb
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/09/03/home-prices-july/2756633/
S&P 500, Dow close at record highs
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/09/18/stocks-sp500-record-high/2830409/
Deficit Already Cut In Half
http://www.ohio.com/blogs/mass-destruction/blog-of-mass-destruction-1.298992/deficit-already-cut-in-half-1.389063
Jobless Rate Edges Down to Its Lowest Level in 4 Years
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/business/economy/us-creates-146000-new-jobs-as-unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-7.html?_r=0
The Fed knows its "economic stimulus" program is irrelevant. The economy does not actually revolve around data but sentiment. The Fed does not believe that quantitative easing makes anything better, objectively; they only believe that quantitative easing makes the tens of millions of economic actors that comprise the economy feel better.
Bull markets end on good news, bear markets end on bad news. Furthermore, there is technical evidence to suggest that the stock market has topped and that the mini-echo housing bubble has also topped. Unemployment figures can change rapidly when markets roll over. As for deficits, the total debt to GDP ratio is at historically unprecedented levels: there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that this is sustainable. I repeat: not a chance.
That being said, the president has nothing whatsoever to do with any of it. Presidents are controlled by events. The economic events occurring are cyclical and have been building for decades.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
the annual debt to GDP ratio is normal. it has been much worse.
we'll see about your predictions of a second housing bubble, to me it sounds kinda retarded. no offense.*
a lot of the other stuff you said is true enough, but tell japan that our debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable. they'll laugh while they continue to enjoy their high standard of living and their very sustainable, efficient, universal healthcare program.
Comparing Japans econ to our is retarted you dolt Buck. Apples and Oranges there Obamathe annual debt to GDP ratio is normal. it has been much worse.
we'll see about your predictions of a second housing bubble, to me it sounds kinda retarded. no offense.*
a lot of the other stuff you said is true enough, but tell japan that our debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable. they'll laugh while they continue to enjoy their high standard of living and their very sustainable, efficient, universal healthcare program.