It's hard to pin where Fury is at. He sat out a large chunk of his prime with mental health issues and hasn't fought many of his contemporaries. I think he's on the downswing from all of his wars and fighting light footed with so much extra weight. Usyk is past his physical prime, but the technique and Ukrainian boxing pedigree he brings to heavyweight, as a naturally smaller fighter, will give him longevity, until it doesn't.
I think Fury can win, but I like Usyks odds. If either man has meaningfully slowed or lost their chin, this is where we find out.