Bagginski
Well-Known Member
I seriously doubt that *anyone* in RFKJ’s ‘base’ will vote for Harris, now or ever, above the microfractional level - there are indeed nuts on both sides, but pseudo-conservatism has magnetized almost all of the nuts available
The people “truly” in the middle are supposed to be ‘the independents’; the way their balancing act plays out, they predictably come down harder on Dems & softer on Pugs. Their actions don’t herald fundamental shifts in the electorate, just the winds as they blow
There is a third, unacknowledged ‘force’ in play which I call the old-line, or principled, conservatives; they include people like Liz Cheney, of the paleo-con sort, as well as David Frum, a definite neo-con; they also include folks like Adam Kinzinger & Joe Walsh with no strong links to the conservative past & a need to acknowledge their failure as a party-like thing & move beyond who/what they have been
In modern times, they’ve only shown themselves once: following the fall of Richard Nixon, when they sat out in ‘74, ‘76, & ‘78. Only a 5% drop in participation, but that gave Dems an effective 10% boost @ the polls, which let them dominate the next 3 elections
The reason they don’t show themselves is due to the nature of true conservatism itself: they are uninclined to rock the boat once enough of a consensus is reached, despite their regard for their freedom of speech. To do so in the Reagan era in particular is to jeopardize family ties, friendships, work relationships - including job status: to risk personal ruin, IOW. The on-steroids nature of life in MAGAdonia makes it even more dangerous to (try to) jump ship…and it accelerates as things get darker
In the post-Chump era, though, we see an entirely different set of dynamics in action: the effing *awsome* repudiation of the *party leader and candidate* that was Nikki Haley’s primary run, for just one - she consistently pulled 20% in multiple states.
Add to that the *old* old-liners like Judge Luttig, & the elevation of John McCain & Dwight Eisenhower to a Lincolnesque status; the rate of retirement/resignation/refusal to re-seek office in protest; and the man’s unstoppable devolution into the kind of toxic asshole that made laws necessary in the first place.
Every day a few thousand Chump voters are reaching their limit of tolerance for his nasty bullying, his stupid horseshit, his lies so obvious that even the most indoctrinated are seeing through him.
This is unheard of in US politics. I know of no precedent where GOP political actors have generated an electoral pullback against themselves, other than the turning-away in the aftermath of the Senate Watergate hearings. The only data I have on that, is a 5% drop in turnout. From the current moment, we have Haley consistently hitting 20% - and in case you missed it, when Haley told her primary voters to vote for Trump, she got the middle finger down to the elbow.
my conclusion is that, if a 5% pullback led to a 10% gain for Dems, a 20% pullback would effectively be a 40% gain - even with none of her 20% voting for Harris; if even 10% *do* vote for Harris, it could leave Chump and his ex-party with a monumental defeat: 60/40 - or worse (for them)
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