NASA predicts irreversible collapse of civilization

[SirGreenThumb]

Rome is such a great example. The west, in ignorance or arrogance, says that Rome ended in 476 or something like that. But in reality 477 was not much different than 475. Never mind the fact that in the east people went on calling them selves roman, and serving under a roman emperor for nearly one thousand years, they went on in the west also.

All that really happened in 476 was the last person in the west to be crowned emperor and have at least nominal control over the western half was deposed. There were local roman governors who went on for decades in Iberia, Gaul, northern Africa while the goths invaded Italy, but were then kicked out by the other remaining Romans under Justinian in the 6th century.

When Rome pulled out of the British isles, they did so gradually. They were there for 3 or 400 years. The people felt roman, and the Romans sent there felt British. It took some centuries, and an invasion for civilization to really crumble there.

But with the light speed communication we have now, we will have panic and mayhem. Back then the normal person said "fuck it, I gotta pick these grains."

I'm Greek.

My dad came from Athens. However, I'm a mut mixed with Cherokee Indian.

 

[BigNBushy]

I'm Greek.

My dad came from Athens. However, I'm a mut mixed with Cherokee Indian.

Ae you familiar with the melungeons?

Some folks say they were an ancient group of folks from Europe or somewhere that came to the new world and settled around the southern apalachian mountains.

Anyway, they are strange looking, supposedly green colored people.

They are true mutts. Recent genetic testing revealed they are likely part native American, African, European, and Jewish. All admixed together into almost even mix between all members of the group.

The melungeons, their civilization must have collapsed. (needed to tie it to the tread somehow)

Personally I'm a mutt also. I'm about 1/8 black, 1/8 Cherokee, and the rest is French, German, and British.

 

[vostok]

http://crisisofcivilization.com/
This documentary is one of the best I've seen for a long time. It takes a very considered and sober look at some of our planet's most pressing problems - not in isolation but together, and extrapolates some conclusions which should give us all great cause for concern. The human race is locked into a number of systems of behaviour, commerce, politics and economics which serve certain vested interests ... to the long term detriment of our planet, and therefore ourselves. But these systems and belief structures are so entrenched (and reinforced by those vested interests - who influence our governments) that breaking out of them (necessary for human survival) is going to be very challenging, and probably very painful. The sooner people WAKE UP to these truths, and start taking individual action based on these truths, the better off we will all be.

There is a PAIN-TRAIN coming for human civilization as we know it, one way or another. How are you going to prepare for it?

 

[canndo]

Why are you trying to start an argument? They "discovered" nothing new. Civilizations have risen and fallen throughout history over the scarcity of resources. "Tomorrow will be much like yesterday" is hardly worth shouting from the headlines

When it happens to you, it seems for all the world like something new. The point is that it IS happening to you, so for you, it is new. "what? I have cancer? well, everyone gets it, oh well"

 

[canndo]

Why are you trying to start an argument? They "discovered" nothing new. Civilizations have risen and fallen throughout history over the scarcity of resources. "Tomorrow will be much like yesterday" is hardly worth shouting from the headlines

You didn't read it and are gleaning information not from the article, not from the study but from the lead paragraph, the headline and what people are saying about it.

 

[robert 14617]

soilent green is people

 

[SirGreenThumb]

Ae you familiar with the melungeons?

Some folks say they were an ancient group of folks from Europe or somewhere that came to the new world and settled around the southern apalachian mountains.

Anyway, they are strange looking, supposedly green colored people.

They are true mutts. Recent genetic testing revealed they are likely part native American, African, European, and Jewish. All admixed together into almost even mix between all members of the group.

The melungeons, their civilization must have collapsed. (needed to tie it to the tread somehow)

Personally I'm a mutt also. I'm about 1/8 black, 1/8 Cherokee, and the rest is French, German, and British.

I didn't know the name, but I know I seen them in a movie once.

Its kinda funny, if I let my hair grow out I would look like I should have been in the movie Troy. You can see it in me, and the changing of my last name makes it look Hispanic. If if it is pronounced properly you can definitely tell. An I and an E changed places. Why does that happen when people come over from another country? Or at least it used too, my fiancees parents last name was adjusted also.

 

[desert dude]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

Now, here is what I find interesting:

A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.
Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."
The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.
It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation:

"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."
​

By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, andEnergy.
These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five thousand years."
Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to overconsumption of resources, with "Elites" based largely in industrialised countries responsible for both:

"... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels."









​

NASA has been kinda pissy ever since the space shuttle stopped flying.

 

[robert 14617]

is there a list anywhere that tells us how the space station has improved our lives here on earth

 

[Milovan]

 

[Canna Sylvan]

" unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution."

If the unsustainable resource exploitation is done through equal wealth distribution, then it becomes sustainable? Seriously?

 

[UncleBuck]

is there a list anywhere that tells us how the space station has improved our lives here on earth

a lot of the technology you see in hospitals was courtesy of NASA. they didn't set out to make devices for health care, but the stuff they did make ended up having medical uses.

 

[cannabineer]

If its cyclical, how is it irreversible?

My opinion? This time the difference is the global village. Previously, collapsing empires were surrounded by vigorous, if less developed, societies. Now we have very sophisticated groups of people spreading the strain so evenly that every component of the vast and interlocked planetwide socioeconomic machine is being strained to a high percentage of its capacity. This sets us up for a local failure to be very quickly turned into a global cascade. The folks distributing the strain are good, but it is a proven maxim of catastrophe theory that every nonequilibriun system, such as a nation or market, actively explores its failure modes. Students of the LTCM (who here remembers Long term Capital Management with its modelers who rigged against all but the one-in-a-billion eventuality? And what happened to them? Why would less-motivated wardens of an even bigger, hairier system do any better, given a little time and mounting performance requirements?)
When you take out the whole shebang at once, we will quickly become acquainted with the oft-quoted but little-appreciated maxim (I searched for but can't find the exact quote) that we're three days away from total savagery should the food trucks stop rolling. I don't think being a "prepper" would help me, since as one such I'd simply be a target for sufficiently-motivated pirates. I don't think I have the right mindset to out-badass them.

 

[BigNBushy]

a lot of the technology you see in hospitals was courtesy of NASA. they didn't set out to make devices for health care, but the stuff they did make ended up having medical uses.

For once something we agree on.

Every dime we spend in NASA has historically had a very good return in terms of useful technology for everyday life. I'm not so sure about NASA getting into this type of study. But in general, NASA has always been a great place to spend money.

 

[greentrip]

I haven't been following NASA lately . I do find some of its new missions fascinating.
My understanding from an ABC article is the "foremost" of the 3 things the president has designated NASA to undertake is Muslim outreach.
I wonder how that is going? Can any NASA followers comment.

The article is readily available if needed.
Update link to articlehttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2010/07/white-house-nasa-defend-comments-about-nasa-outreach-to-muslim-world-criticized-by-conservatives/

 

[Canna Sylvan]

It's how we make sure this time no child is ever left behind, otherwise they might become that guy who NASA who mixed different weights and measures without sticking to a standard. Let's just say, bad things tend to happen when you do that and it wasted nearly as much money as no child left behind.

 

[SirGreenThumb]

Did anyone consider going to Mars?

 

[Red1966]

Not for my self, but there's a few I wouldn't mind sending there.

 

[Red1966]

" unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution." If the unsustainable resource exploitation is done through equal wealth distribution, then it becomes sustainable? Seriously?

You just don't understand how liberals think.

 

[Rob Roy]

It is fascinating how so many actually believe that they are not a part of the picture here. They all think that this will be no big deal. Rob thinks that everything will be fine because he lives in a tree somewhere. Everyone figures that they will just have to do a little less driving or light candles.

It's a hobbit hole dammit!

You might enjoy adding to your end of the world misery by reading this book - The Long Emergency - by James H. Kunstler. He gets into end of oil stuff and writes pretty entertaining whether you agree with the ideas or not.

I live off the grid and love it. Cheers.