War

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
So ultimately the question of the war resides in Putin. If he is in power it most likely will be fought for some time. From all indications Putin is not going anywhere, especially since he is calling the special operation as necessary to save Russia.
congress is set to approve another 40 billion in aid to Ukraine...they're going to have the equipment they need, they'll have plenty of medical supplies, they're receiving training on all the systems we and the E.U. members are giving them...putin can drag this out, but i don't think he can win. russia is a big country with a long border, and a lot of enemies. they have to maintain border guards. they have to maintain a presence in Armenia, Belarus, Azerbijan, Georgia, Khazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Syria, Tajikistan...they're already short of the number of men they would need as an occupying force to just keep what they hold in Ukraine. putin might be able to stretch this out for another year, possibly two...if his own people don't openly revolt. some of them have to be catching on that something isn't right, that someone has been lying to them. i realize that many of them have bought into his shit whole heartedly, but have all of them? if so, who has been setting all those fires? sabotaging rail lines?
after about another year, during which he will conscript as many appropriately aged men as he can, he will have an army of poorly trained, poorly motivated, poorly equipped people who will die quickly. they'll take a fair number of Ukrainians with them, but i doubt it will be more than a small fraction of what they would need to kill to even be able to claim a weak, Pyrrhic victory. all putin is doing is wasting more Ukrainian and russian lives in a war he has already lost, while continuing to damage russia's economy and world reputation.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
These days young engineers in smaller countries can sell domestic drones to their military and internationally and many do. A lot of it is from off the shelf parts like engines, electronics and servos, airframes can be made domestically for much lower costs than manned aircraft. The can use 3D printers for many parts and buy what they need abroad much from China if they wish, they make RC planes in volume that take engines like the one this thing uses, if they wanna go on the cheap. It uses critical components from larger scale RC planes that are mass produced. If you aren't under sanctions, you can get and adapt a lot with engineering talent and not too much capital.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
If ya look at the old fossils behind Vlad at the victory day parade, you can see why they are losing the war! I think retired people still wear the uniform there though, at least I would hope so, cause if these old farts are giving orders they won't adapt their military to modern methods! It's not just the technology that puts them at a disadvantage, it's their entire system and organization. Without his vast stock piles of munitions and equipment he wouldn't have much and that is being depleted at an alarming rate, the way the Russians are using it in Ukraine. He using or losing everything from men to missiles, small arms, tanks, BMPs, drones planes, helicopters, missiles, ships and especially trucks. Much of it he can't replace at all and more will take a long time to make, even then it's all obsolete.
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The War Is ‘Ukraine’s To Win’ Says Fmr. Zelenskyy Advisor

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Looks like a sign the Russians are cracking and it is about to get much worse for them with the Ukrainians use of modern weapons and unrelenting guerilla warfare. Though I don't know if the Ukrainians will be relying on guerilla warfare as much as expected, since they are winning at lower costs with conventional war, or will. I haven't seen too many asymmetrical warfare tactics used by the Ukrainians, probably because the war is not asymmetrical, though IEDs are on the table for sure.

The Russians are having a Helluva time in Ukraine and I figure it is about to get much worse for them, to the point where they either retreat, or break and run, or are overwhelmed in some areas. Panic in armies can spread like wildfire and if the senior officers are dead, or can't get near the front without getting snuffed, who will stop the panic? Who will drive the herd of savages when the whip holders are dead?

It will end like Lord of the Rings, when Sauron was slain the orcs lost their will to fight and the battle was won, as the mighty host descended into chaos and confusion.
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printer

Well-Known Member
congress is set to approve another 40 billion in aid to Ukraine...they're going to have the equipment they need, they'll have plenty of medical supplies, they're receiving training on all the systems we and the E.U. members are giving them...putin can drag this out, but i don't think he can win. russia is a big country with a long border, and a lot of enemies. they have to maintain border guards. they have to maintain a presence in Armenia, Belarus, Azerbijan, Georgia, Khazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Syria, Tajikistan...they're already short of the number of men they would need as an occupying force to just keep what they hold in Ukraine. putin might be able to stretch this out for another year, possibly two...if his own people don't openly revolt. some of them have to be catching on that something isn't right, that someone has been lying to them. i realize that many of them have bought into his shit whole heartedly, but have all of them? if so, who has been setting all those fires? sabotaging rail lines?
after about another year, during which he will conscript as many appropriately aged men as he can, he will have an army of poorly trained, poorly motivated, poorly equipped people who will die quickly. they'll take a fair number of Ukrainians with them, but i doubt it will be more than a small fraction of what they would need to kill to even be able to claim a weak, Pyrrhic victory. all putin is doing is wasting more Ukrainian and russian lives in a war he has already lost, while continuing to damage russia's economy and world reputation.
I agree with it possibly going another year or two. I do not believe it will be over soon. For the Ukrainians to push them out of the country would put the Ukrainians on the offence like the Russians at the start of the war. They are going to have to sweep the cities where the Russians would have had plenty of time to mine the place. Russia has no problem hitting civilian places. They will try to maximize the hurt to have something to bargan with. Russia's reputation? They are showing the reputation they want to have so others do not follow in the Ukrainian's footsteps.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

In his speech preceding the Victory Day celebrations across Russia on Sunday, President Vladimir Putin continued to promote the idea that his troops in Ukraine are fighting “to liberate their native land from the Nazi filth with confidence that, as in 1945, victory will be ours.” His portrayal of Ukrainians as Nazis rings so hollow that propagandists on state television have been struggling to justify the so-called “special military operation.” The description itself was meant to portray a nearly painless blitzkrieg, akin to the annexation of Crimea. Instead, it has turned into an ongoing bloody massacre and a slew of crippling sanctions.

Russia was so unprepared for this turn of events, both militarily and economically, that even the most pro-Kremlin propagandists have been forced to acknowledge the grim reality of a pariah state fighting a war of aggression.
 

HGCC

Well-Known Member
We should probably find some insurgent groups to fund. Let's destabilize that shit like it's Latin America or the Middle East. Spread some democracy around and stop those commies.

*terrible idea and its horrible we did that so often for so long.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
We should probably find some insurgent groups to fund. Let's destabilize that shit like it's Latin America or the Middle East. Spread some democracy around and stop those commies.

*terrible idea and its horrible we did that so often for so long.
Support motivated people who want to be free and will fight for it, support people not strong men. The current battle is against strongmen and authoritarians, not a long discredited ideology. It is very much for liberal democracy, we don't need to spread it, as much as support it when it arises. It is also against corruption, in Ukraine too and that's why they elected Zelenskiy and his party, to try and deal with it by moving closer to the EU with it's regulations and checks on corruption.

Ukraine is the best bet Uncle Sam has had for a long time, it will change the face of Europe, end Russia as a super power, other than using nukes to commit suicide with for the most part. It will also greatly promote the cause of freedom, because courage is contagious, Russia will be weak and was an empire of conquest by ethnic Russians for the most part. Belarus might be next and Georgia has a score to settle too, much depends on how badly Vlad's army is destroyed in Ukraine and what he has left afterwards. All former Republics will be against them and perhaps will form a defensive military alliance against them to ensure their future independence. A few years could see Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and perhaps others in a defensive alliance against Russian aggression.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I dunno if cold war 2 is the right term to use for this struggle, the cold war was an economic ideological struggle on the surface, but it was actually a struggle between liberal democracy and authoritarians. The economics was more of a cover for it and to dupe the gullible. Stalin dug communism's grave and China's experience of 40 years of both, buried it for good. This episode in history resembles the crushing of a cockroach being stomped into the pavement by most of the world. His other authoritarian buddies are looking on in horror, helplessly as Vlad goes down in flames and humiliation. Most of the developed world (the ones with arms and money) has united against them, outside the framework of the UN. Xi in China is thinking twice about Taiwan and more about the possibilities in central Asia with Russia's decline, that is where the oil and resources China needs are, that is it's natural hinterland. The fat little fuck in North Korea is worried too, South Korea's NATO like army could go to the northern border pretty quick and through his demoralized half starved slave army. They could launch precision missiles and suicide drone strikes to take out all of his artillery and nukes in minutes along with him and the leadership. So he had best STFU and stay in his corner or they might do him, nukes or not, if they figure they can get away with it.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Ukraine mocked Russia's 'Victory Day' by holding a 'parade' of captured Russian tanks

  • Ukraine's military mocked Russia's "Victory Day" by holding what it said was a "parade" of "trophy" tanks.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Ministry tweeted that its forces were "ruining the holiday for the occupiers."
  • Every year, Russia celebrates Victory Day with a grand military parade in Moscow's Red Square.
Ukraine's government mocked Russia's celebration of "Victory Day" by holding what it said was a "parade" of tanks that Ukrainian forces captured from Russian troops amid Moscow's war with the eastern European country.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a tweet on Wednesday that the Ukrainian military's 93rd Mechanized Brigade "held a parade of trophy Russian tanks, ruining the holiday for the occupiers," in reference to Victory Day.

"Maybe aggressors think that by arming #UAarmy with Russian trophy equipment, it will affect the turn of NATO-style armament? New clever plan," the Ukrainian Defense Ministry taunted in the tweet.

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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Reports are that Russians left Syria in a hurry as Vlad scrambles for replacements of men and units, some BTGs have been completely destroyed and almost all of them severely mauled. That's with western defensive weapons like stingers, Javelins and NLAWs, along with old Soviet stuff for tanks and artillery, wait till the western big iron shows, up along with all the modern arms like drones and electronics. The Russians are an artillery army and the Ukrainians will be able to out range them, out shoot them and knock them out with more accurate fire and faster mobility to avoid counter battery fire. Without artillery the Russians are naked and if they won't move now, they won't when their artillery support is stripped away, they will die in place or run for the border, on foot, because they won't have fuel either.
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Pentagon: Russian military continues to struggle with poor morale, refusal to obey orders
Russian forces have not made any significant progress in Moscow’s new offensive in eastern Ukraine, a situation partly due to poor morale and some troops “refusing to obey orders,” a senior U.S. defense official said Monday.

“We still see anecdotal reports of poor morale of troops, indeed officers, refusing to obey orders and move and not really sound command and control from a leadership perspective,” the official told reporters.

The official later said “midgrade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level” either have refused to obey orders “or are not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey.”

Russian forces have struggled to make major gains in the Donbas region of Ukraine since beginning a new offensive in the area last month.

On top of dealing with morale issues that have lingered since the start of the war on Feb. 24, the Kremlin also is struggling to resupply its troops and move its weapons and equipment in muddy spring weather, the official said.

Still, Moscow continues to send operational battalion tactical groups (BTGs) into Ukraine, with 97 such groups in the country, up from 92 late last month, according to the official. Each BTG typically consists of about 700 to 800 soldiers.

“It’s not unusual for them to move a BTG or two out of the Donbas back into Russia for refit or resupply and then move them back in. That’s normal,” the official said.

However, Russia has added about five BTGs to Ukraine in a little more than a week, all sent to either the east or the south of Ukraine, they added.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
I agree with it possibly going another year or two. I do not believe it will be over soon. For the Ukrainians to push them out of the country would put the Ukrainians on the offence like the Russians at the start of the war. They are going to have to sweep the cities where the Russians would have had plenty of time to mine the place. Russia has no problem hitting civilian places. They will try to maximize the hurt to have something to bargan with. Russia's reputation? They are showing the reputation they want to have so others do not follow in the Ukrainian's footsteps.
that myopia is going to haunt them for a long time. at least half of the companies that left russia at the start of their invasion of Ukraine will never return, and a lot of the other half will only return provisionally, slowly, it will take years before they have their former presence.
how do you think the airlines are going to react to russia after they seized 515 airbus and boeing jets, and refuse to return them? would you start doing business with a country that had stolen billions of dollars worth of assets from you? or one of your competitors? do you think any non communist country will ever allow one of those stolen jets to land at their airports?
their biggest source of income before the war was gas sales to Europe, a source of income they won't have to fall back on after hostilities cease, as the Europeans scramble for alternate sources of energy. they won't go back to putin's dirty gas once it is available again. if and when sanctions are lifted, it will take decades for the russian economy to recover from putin's insane war.
The russians have lost already, they are now doing as much harm to their own people and economy as they are to Ukraine.
 
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