War

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I don't see a black/white resolution here,I hate to admit it but Russia does have legit claims concerning Crimea,they DID cede it to Ukraine during Soviet times,but it was a dog and pony show,Russia still used its access to the Black Sea and it's pop. is primarily Russian and pro Russia. You could say it's "Indian Giving" but no way Russia cedes this territory if it knows the Soviet Union is breaking up. Factor in it's strategic importance as losing it basically land locks Russia from the B. Sea and their is a good chance of it's loss prompting nuke use. The amount of loose nuke talk concerning nuking the US in Russian media off the charts and careless and alarming at the same time. It's not fair but nuclear states receive dif. treatment. Look at N. Korea,would we put up w/the BS they cause if they didn't have nukes or for that matter I guarantee Nato would be giving Ukraine air cover at the very least if the Russian's weren't a nuclear state. There are no easy answers in this and the West is very careful in what we provide in weaponry for this exact reason. For instance F-16's, Don't you think Joe has nightmares of US provided fighters flying supersonic at tree top level to bomb Moscow for the symbolic statement it would provide the Ukranians,once they have that capability you never know and then you never know how a country w/over 1700 deployed strategic nukes reacts to having their capitol hit by a capability provided by uncle Sam. It's a word wide shit sandwhich w/so many uneasy questions,hell I'm hearing that Putin;s replacement will in all likelyhood be WORSE if that can be comprehended.I don't even know who could negotiate a end game to this tangled mess.Who can deal w/ Russia,who can rebuild Ukraine,how can the war crimes be prosecuted,what kind of status does Ukraine have post war NATO/EU,what kind of hair trigger border situations will exist post war,and on and on the questions go.I just have a hard time seeing the Russians not getting crazy responding to a total defeat there is a good chance they will react w/a we don't win no one wins response. Putin surely wishes he never launched this in retrospect but he's in too deep and pride/survival have him in a corner were he can't back down. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or Western backing to rout the Russians either,and the Chinese are starting to sniff around,it's all forboding as a MF.
The very simple answer to the bolded is that they did cede it back in the day, and kept the boundaries intact during the breakup. “On second thought” is not legitimate. Crimea is properly a Ukrainian possession, and I hope they take it back.

As for routing the Russians, things might get surprising after another season’s attrition. The one thing it ain’t is boring.

(add) Russia is promoting “the nuke talk” because it is a cheap and effective tactic of intimidation. If we cave to it, I foresee a century of bad foreign policies worldwide.

The one thing making nuclear deterrence work in this era following the one of mutual assured destruction is the promise of a massive response should anyone ignore or defy the global handshake agreement to keep war conventional.

It may come to an object lesson that Nato is well-positioned to deliver. I counsel against appeasement; it has led to bad results in living memory.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Ukraine war will last 'at least' another year, says Defence Secretary | LBC

4,955 views Feb 27, 2023 #NickFerrari #Ukraine #Russia
As the Ukraine war ticks into its second year, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace sits down with Nick Ferrari to discuss NATO leadership, training troops and Prince Harry's "boasting".
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
Keep them poor and isolated until there is liberal democratic reform and make it a pattern with such governments, once they start shit the only way for it to end is with liberal democratic reform on their part.
that's simply not true...most russians don't like the west and don't want to be a part of it, have you not watched any of the "man in the street' interviews people have been posting? They like the goodies, but they're happy being blindly led, even if they're being blindly led into an abyss.
They've NEVER had to face responsibility for their choice, they've never actually had a real choice, and not only wouldn't know what to do with one, they wouldn't appreciate the responsibility it forces upon them.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
I don't see a black/white resolution here,I hate to admit it but Russia does have legit claims concerning Crimea,they DID cede it to Ukraine during Soviet times,but it was a dog and pony show,Russia still used its access to the Black Sea and it's pop. is primarily Russian and pro Russia. You could say it's "Indian Giving" but no way Russia cedes this territory if it knows the Soviet Union is breaking up. Factor in it's strategic importance as losing it basically land locks Russia from the B. Sea and their is a good chance of it's loss prompting nuke use. The amount of loose nuke talk concerning nuking the US in Russian media off the charts and careless and alarming at the same time. It's not fair but nuclear states receive dif. treatment. Look at N. Korea,would we put up w/the BS they cause if they didn't have nukes or for that matter I guarantee Nato would be giving Ukraine air cover at the very least if the Russian's weren't a nuclear state. There are no easy answers in this and the West is very careful in what we provide in weaponry for this exact reason. For instance F-16's, Don't you think Joe has nightmares of US provided fighters flying supersonic at tree top level to bomb Moscow for the symbolic statement it would provide the Ukranians,once they have that capability you never know and then you never know how a country w/over 1700 deployed strategic nukes reacts to having their capitol hit by a capability provided by uncle Sam. It's a word wide shit sandwhich w/so many uneasy questions,hell I'm hearing that Putin;s replacement will in all likelyhood be WORSE if that can be comprehended.I don't even know who could negotiate a end game to this tangled mess.Who can deal w/ Russia,who can rebuild Ukraine,how can the war crimes be prosecuted,what kind of status does Ukraine have post war NATO/EU,what kind of hair trigger border situations will exist post war,and on and on the questions go.I just have a hard time seeing the Russians not getting crazy responding to a total defeat there is a good chance they will react w/a we don't win no one wins response. Putin surely wishes he never launched this in retrospect but he's in too deep and pride/survival have him in a corner were he can't back down. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or Western backing to rout the Russians either,and the Chinese are starting to sniff around,it's all forboding as a MF.
then we need to get the fuck out of the US and give it all back to the indigenous people, most of europe would belong to England, Spain, Portugal, and russia...EVERYONE HAS OWNED ALMOST EVERYTHING AT ONE TIME...that gives their claims of ownership ZERO credibility in the present.
russia doesn't own any part of Ukraine, Ukraine doesn't want them in their country...simple as that, this isn't the playground with give backs...They gave up the land, that negates all future claim they might think they have to it, and they know it, or they would have pursued legal means.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I don't see a black/white resolution here,I hate to admit it but Russia does have legit claims concerning Crimea,they DID cede it to Ukraine during Soviet times,but it was a dog and pony show,Russia still used its access to the Black Sea and it's pop. is primarily Russian and pro Russia. You could say it's "Indian Giving" but no way Russia cedes this territory if it knows the Soviet Union is breaking up. Factor in it's strategic importance as losing it basically land locks Russia from the B. Sea and their is a good chance of it's loss prompting nuke use. The amount of loose nuke talk concerning nuking the US in Russian media off the charts and careless and alarming at the same time. It's not fair but nuclear states receive dif. treatment. Look at N. Korea,would we put up w/the BS they cause if they didn't have nukes or for that matter I guarantee Nato would be giving Ukraine air cover at the very least if the Russian's weren't a nuclear state. There are no easy answers in this and the West is very careful in what we provide in weaponry for this exact reason. For instance F-16's, Don't you think Joe has nightmares of US provided fighters flying supersonic at tree top level to bomb Moscow for the symbolic statement it would provide the Ukranians,once they have that capability you never know and then you never know how a country w/over 1700 deployed strategic nukes reacts to having their capitol hit by a capability provided by uncle Sam. It's a word wide shit sandwhich w/so many uneasy questions,hell I'm hearing that Putin;s replacement will in all likelyhood be WORSE if that can be comprehended.I don't even know who could negotiate a end game to this tangled mess.Who can deal w/ Russia,who can rebuild Ukraine,how can the war crimes be prosecuted,what kind of status does Ukraine have post war NATO/EU,what kind of hair trigger border situations will exist post war,and on and on the questions go.I just have a hard time seeing the Russians not getting crazy responding to a total defeat there is a good chance they will react w/a we don't win no one wins response. Putin surely wishes he never launched this in retrospect but he's in too deep and pride/survival have him in a corner were he can't back down. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or Western backing to rout the Russians either,and the Chinese are starting to sniff around,it's all forboding as a MF.
The Russians agreed to the borders when the USSR broke up and in subsequent agreements guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial integrity, in one of those agreements Ukraine gave up its nukes and America and the UK gave security assurances too. According to the UN charter the Russians broke the law and the international system of peace and prosperity. Russia has no claim on Crimea or any of the other republics they occupy, soon it will be the same rationalization when they try to occupy and absorb Belarus. The Russians even lost the referendum in Crimea, it was 57% there to join Ukraine and by the time the Ukrainians are done starving them out, many of the Russians who moved there will leave and are leaving in droves now. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 the same way the invaded Georgia before and the same way they took over other places and the same way they are threating to take over Moldova. It's imperialism plain and simple, the people living in a place make the call and they did when the USSR broke up, not Putin and a gang of criminals in Moscow.

We will destroy their army and ability to project force, they can only operate about 50km from their wide gauge railheads anyway and this rail gauge is used in their former empire. By destroying critical rail bridges on the half dozen rail routes leading into Ukraine up to 100km inside Russia, they can be cut off and trapped in Russia. Rail tracks can be rapidly repaired, rail bridges take a lot of time, especially for Russia and especially when the repair crews and equipment are destroyed periodically by drone and missile attacks. The Russian military and economy are heavily dependent on the rail network, and they also have weak rail links crossing many bridges to the east of their country, Siberia and the eastern pacific coast. IMHO rail bridges are their weak link and destroying a few critical ones would see the Russians in a lot of trouble, many are in isolated locations in the middle of nowhere and very hard to defend.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
that's simply not true...most russians don't like the west and don't want to be a part of it, have you not watched any of the "man in the street' interviews people have been posting? They like the goodies, but they're happy being blindly led, even if they're being blindly led into an abyss.
They've NEVER had to face responsibility for their choice, they've never actually had a real choice, and not only wouldn't know what to do with one, they wouldn't appreciate the responsibility it forces upon them.
Then they can stay in the fucking dark ages until they figure it out, it's time for liberal democracies to realize that while they might coexist with some authoritarian regimes that have divided power structures, they can't do business with despots and need to stick together on this. China and Russia have attacked our democratic processes in every liberal democracy, Russia even has a fifth column in America FFS, MTG and the magats are root'en for Putin.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Then they can stay in the fucking dark ages until they figure it out, it's time for liberal democracies to realize that while they might coexist with some authoritarian regimes that have divided power structures, they can't do business with despots and need to stick together on this. China and Russia have attacked our democratic processes in every liberal democracy, Russia even has a fifth column in America FFS, MTG and the magats are root'en for Putin.
before we can effectively pursue a coherent long-term policy, there is the teenytiny matter of getting our own houses into order. Another process I do not expect to see done in my lifetime.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
Then they can stay in the fucking dark ages until they figure it out, it's time for liberal democracies to realize that while they might coexist with some authoritarian regimes that have divided power structures, they can't do business with despots and need to stick together on this. China and Russia have attacked our democratic processes in every liberal democracy, Russia even has a fifth column in America FFS, MTG and the magats are root'en for Putin.
not gonna happen...russia sits on top of a lot of very needed chemicals, fertilizers, and ores, not to mention the oil and gas...they're still selling all of it to someone, while under the steepest sanctions we can muster unless we actually start blockading ports and declaring no fly zones over russia...
Which NATO and the US do not seem to have the balls to do. So they'll continue to do business their way, and they'll continue to have buyers, because many countries don't give one fuck about russia, china, the US, or the fututre of Ukraine, as long as they have fuel and fertilizer.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
not gonna happen...russia sits on top of a lot of very needed chemicals, fertilizers, and ores, not to mention the oil and gas...they're still selling all of it to someone, while under the steepest sanctions we can muster unless we actually start blockading ports and declaring no fly zones over russia...
Which NATO and the US do not seem to have the balls to do. So they'll continue to do business their way, and they'll continue to have buyers, because many countries don't give one fuck about russia, china, the US, or the fututre of Ukraine, as long as they have fuel and fertilizer.
If you look closely, you'll see that many of those things like fertilizer and critical metals are not sanctioned, not much coming out except for oil and gas is. Just technology going in is sanctioned for the most part. At the rate Europe are converting to solar, wind, heat pumps and EVs, how much of a market will there be for NG and especially gasoline in a decade, by 2033 say? Their wealth depends on oil and gas for the most part and their military power depends on their wealth. Increasingly being cut off from technology and the international system damages a country's military in of itself, technology is advancing so rapidly that being cut off will lead to military weakness. Even America sources many components and weapons systems from allies these days and all allied militaries are interdependent on trade and technology among them.

They can sell metals, chemicals and fertilizer etc, but not much oil and NG where the big bucks are, in fact it will encourage them to sell these commodities and anything they can for cash. Even India is going solar and making batteries for EVs, China is adopting EVs at a pretty good rate now too, so in a decade the market for gasoline should be showing a few cracks. Solar, wind and heat pumps will continue to eat into the NG market over the next decade too. By the time Russia comes around they won't have a pot to piss in much less a mighty army that Europe fears.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
before we can effectively pursue a coherent long-term policy, there is the teenytiny matter of getting our own houses into order. Another process I do not expect to see done in my lifetime.
You don't need everybody to agree, just a majority and it is an issue that will serve to crack the GOP wide open from top to bottom, they are more divided over Ukraine than Trump. The magats are the outliers in the GOP on this issue with most of the base, just as the establishment ones are the outliers when it comes to Trump. Joe and congress took care of Ukraine for a while, when they took the car keys away from Kevin until fall, perhaps by then a few magats in congress will be indicted over J6. Foreign affairs don't usually count for much in elections, especially when no American troops are being lost and compared to other recent wars America has fought, this one is CHEAP, a real bargain if there ever was one, plenty of bang for the buck when in Ukrainian hands.

Defeating Russia will be a blow to fascism in America and worldwide, it will make China think twice about Taiwan and perhaps prevent a more serious and damaging war. It should also present China with plenty of opportunities in central Asia and even more in a disintegrating Russian federation. This war has allowed us to spot many weaknesses in our military logistics system and ramping up defense production will help make the calculation too painful for China. With their advanced microprocessor industry, defending Taiwan is not optional, all allied countries and even China are dependent on them and will be for years to come.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Zelensky fires top military commander

123,269 views Feb 27, 2023 #CNN #News
Ukraine’s commander of joint forces operation has been dismissed from his post, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced. Major Gen. Eduard Mykhailovich Moskalov had been appointed to the position last March when Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk was appointed head of the Kyiv regional military administration.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
I don't see a black/white resolution here,I hate to admit it but Russia does have legit claims concerning Crimea,they DID cede it to Ukraine during Soviet times,but it was a dog and pony show,Russia still used its access to the Black Sea and it's pop. is primarily Russian and pro Russia. You could say it's "Indian Giving" but no way Russia cedes this territory if it knows the Soviet Union is breaking up. Factor in it's strategic importance as losing it basically land locks Russia from the B. Sea and their is a good chance of it's loss prompting nuke use. The amount of loose nuke talk concerning nuking the US in Russian media off the charts and careless and alarming at the same time. It's not fair but nuclear states receive dif. treatment. Look at N. Korea,would we put up w/the BS they cause if they didn't have nukes or for that matter I guarantee Nato would be giving Ukraine air cover at the very least if the Russian's weren't a nuclear state. There are no easy answers in this and the West is very careful in what we provide in weaponry for this exact reason. For instance F-16's, Don't you think Joe has nightmares of US provided fighters flying supersonic at tree top level to bomb Moscow for the symbolic statement it would provide the Ukranians,once they have that capability you never know and then you never know how a country w/over 1700 deployed strategic nukes reacts to having their capitol hit by a capability provided by uncle Sam. It's a word wide shit sandwhich w/so many uneasy questions,hell I'm hearing that Putin;s replacement will in all likelyhood be WORSE if that can be comprehended.I don't even know who could negotiate a end game to this tangled mess.Who can deal w/ Russia,who can rebuild Ukraine,how can the war crimes be prosecuted,what kind of status does Ukraine have post war NATO/EU,what kind of hair trigger border situations will exist post war,and on and on the questions go.I just have a hard time seeing the Russians not getting crazy responding to a total defeat there is a good chance they will react w/a we don't win no one wins response. Putin surely wishes he never launched this in retrospect but he's in too deep and pride/survival have him in a corner were he can't back down. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or Western backing to rout the Russians either,and the Chinese are starting to sniff around,it's all forboding as a MF.
The USA signed an agreement with Ukraine to defend them if they gave up 1000's of nukes they had when the USSR split up in the 90's. If the USA hadn't signed that Ukraine would have nukes today and F16's would be moot and Russia would never have invaded.. The USA enabled Russia to bully Ukraine like this. The USA is as much responsible as Russia and they need to stick to the agreement and defend Ukraine.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The USA signed an agreement with Ukraine to defend them if they gave up 1000's of nukes they had when the USSR split up in the 90's. If the USA hadn't signed that Ukraine would have nukes today and F16's would be moot and Russia would never had invaded.. The USA enabled Russia to bully Ukraine like this. The USA is as much responsible as Russia and they need to stick to the agreement and defend Ukraine.
The EU and Germany helped too by looking the other way when Putin invaded multiple countries, not just Ukraine, they appeased aggression for oil and money. It worked out for them until they tried to grab all of Ukraine, got an ass kicking and Ukraine got fanatical support from former Soviet/Russian puppet states close to Russia's borders. These countries are EU and NATO members and make no secret about how the feel about this war and Germany had better take heed, so should France. The Ukrainian's eastern European allies are almost as fanatical about this war as the Ukrainians themselves, they know they would be next. Now it is becoming clear that Russia will be defeated by little Ukraine with lots of outside help. nobody is afraid of the big bad bear anymore or won't be soon enough. The Ukrainians won't just defeat the Russian army, they will destroy them, and they won't be able to recover from the obsolete equipment they lose, or the ammo reserves they expend. Their officer corps has been far more than decimated and the remaining alcoholics are not enthusiastic about the war.

Wait until spring, if you think the Russians are in trouble now, by summer they should be facing a military catastrophe in Ukraine. One of the reasons why I think they are trying to annihilate the Russian army completely is the fact they have not attacked the vital rail bridges inside Russia at Ukraine's borders. The Ukrainians didn't have the means and it might explain Uncle Sam's reluctance to provide weapons with reach. If they did this the burden would be on the Ukrainians to explain why they did not use them against the rail bridges in a timely manner. Once the offensive starts and they suck even more in, then a dozen rail bridges inside Russia could be destroyed cutting off the Russian army in Ukraine. The Russians are heavily dependent on the railways and it is the only reason I can think of as to why it has not been already done. The Russians cannot operate more the 50km max from their rail supply heads. Blowing up a few rail bridges with those 130km range rocket mounted guided glide bombs they are getting now kinda makes sense, once the Russians are driven to the borders or surrounded in Ukraine. The Russian dependency on the railways must have been noted in the Pentagon and elsewhere, it is a vulnerability, and it would be stupid not to exploit it. Tracks can be repaired easily, rail bridges not so much and it is easier to drop a bridge when there is a train passing over it, the pileup causes a real mess.
 

ANC

Well-Known Member
that's simply not true...most russians don't like the west and don't want to be a part of it, have you not watched any of the "man in the street' interviews people have been posting? They like the goodies, but they're happy being blindly led, even if they're being blindly led into an abyss.
They've NEVER had to face responsibility for their choice, they've never actually had a real choice, and not only wouldn't know what to do with one, they wouldn't appreciate the responsibility it forces upon them.
indeed I read today that Putin's support fell from 80 to 74%. They are pretty much all rotten
 

printer

Well-Known Member
indeed I read today that Putin's support fell from 80 to 74%. They are pretty much all rotten
Peskov boasted of high support for Putin among Russians
The vast majority of Russians fully support Russian President Vladimir Putin and the goals of the special operation in Ukraine. This was stated by the press secretary of the Russian leader Dmitry Peskov.

“The vast majority of Russian society fully supports the president. And he fully supports the goals declared by the SVO, ”Peskov said in an interview with Izvestia . Also, according to him, the majority of the population of the Russian Federation supports the economic course of development based on their own strengths.

According to the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), the majority of Russians (67%) expressed a positive impression of the rally-concert in Luzhniki on February 22, where Putin delivered a speech. The event was timed to coincide with the Defender of the Fatherland Day.

Peskov revealed why at this stage it is impossible to stop the NWO
The termination of the special military operation is currently impossible due to the position of the Ukrainian authorities. This was announced by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.

“The current state of affairs, primarily, of course, in Kyiv, does not yet give us the opportunity to count on the fact that there will be an environment for discussing the nuances. Therefore, the SVO continues until the goal is achieved, ”said Dmitry Peskov in an interview with Izvestia .

Earlier, URA.RU said that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called on Ukraine to make peace with Russia. In his opinion, now is the right moment for this.

Pushilin announced the control of the Russian Federation over all routes to Bakhmut
Almost all the roads to Artemovsk (Bakhmut) are currently controlled by the fire weapons of the Russian troops. This was announced by the acting head of the DPR Denis Pushilin.

“Practically all roads to Artemovsk (Bakhmut) are under the fire control of Russian forces. <...> In a year, only high-precision expensive Himars MLRS missiles were fired 239 pieces, more than 15 thousand 155-mm caliber ammunition, ”Pushilin said on the air of the Big Game program on Channel One .

The Kremlin explained why it is impossible to stop the special operation
The state of affairs in Kiev makes it impossible to count on the discussion of the nuances for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, the special operation continues, said Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the President of Russia.

"The current state of affairs, first of all, of course, in Kiev, does not yet give us the opportunity to count on the fact that there will be an environment for discussing the nuances (settlement - ed.). Therefore, the NWO continues until the goal is achieved," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
There are forces in Ukraine that do not like the current Kiev regime, Peskov said, recalling Viktor Medvedchuk and his supporters. "Another thing is that those who are in Ukraine are simply scared and physically dangerous to somehow raise their heads. They will be destroyed immediately, they will be killed," the spokesman said.

When asked whether Moscow would be able to start negotiations with these forces after achieving the goals of the special operation, the Kremlin spokesman answered in the affirmative.

The overwhelming majority of Russians, Peskov also said, fully support Putin, the goals of the special operation and the course of development based on their own strength.

Speaking about the Chinese plan for resolving the situation in Ukraine, the presidential press secretary noted that in terms of ensuring security, it correlates with Russia's approach.

"China is a country whose voice is heard one way or another in all international affairs and problems. Of course, this voice should have been heard in terms of identifying their approaches to Ukrainian affairs. It happened. China voiced its voice. Any attempt to formulate Theses for reaching a peaceful settlement of the problem are welcome, but, of course, the nuances are important," Peskov added.

At the same time, the mediating potential of the Western countries is leveled due to its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, the presidential press secretary noted.

The West, as Peskov noted, could long ago sit down at the negotiating table on the topic of security if it so desired, and although the negotiations would be very difficult, sometimes irreconcilable, they would go on. "But they (Western countries - ed.) refused," the spokesman stated.
 
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