War

[DIY-HP-LED]

No Money for War In 2024 Russia: Social Payments Will Be Decreased

Since the figure in the Russian budget for 'military expenses' is quite unrealistic, the money for waging aggressive and hybrid wars will be taken from social payment funds and other civilian expenses provided for in the Russian economy for 2024. Who will suffer the most from it?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Another day, another trainload of dead Russians, somedays it's two trainloads. The vast majority of them killed by missiles, artillery, mortars, FPV drones and grenades dropped from drones. I think relatively few are killed and wounded by small arms fire in direct combat, advances day and night are spotted with drones, and nothing moves without being seen and often dealt with before they reach Ukrainian positions. Low ammo, interdicted logistics, drones and Ukrainian radar directed counterbattery fire have stripped away a lot of the Russian artillery support. They are making unsupported infantry attacks, and their armor has to stay well back from the front because of drones spotting for artillery or FPV drones attacking them directly. It is the same for the Russian supply trucks, a favorite FPV drone target and they can hit them on the move too. I've noticed they are using tracking or just directional antennas on poles in some cases to greatly extend the range of their attacks with better line of sight for the signals.

They might be short of shells but are trying to make up for it with small drones, like they will make up the difference in missiles with long range suicide drones. I see lots of footage where artillery or even a Javelin might be employed to destroy tanks and APCs, but a drone was used instead. I dunno how many tanks, APC, trucks and light vehicles the Russians lost to FPV drones, but it must be in the thousands by now and total up to billions in terms of dollars. The pilots need training to fly them but not too much and many can learn in a couple of months with the help of a good simulator program to train muscle memory. You don't need to be an expert pilot to fly into a tank, just good enough to hit a small barn door!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1726875720973197321

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

20 Nov: NICE. Ukrainians SET UP PONTOON BRIDGES FOR OFFENSIVE OPERATION | War in Ukraine Explained

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

A longer reach than an FPV quadcopter and probably just as cheap, only one motor and prop are required, and it is GPS guided to stationary targets. It can reach most targets in about 10 to 20 minutes from launch and can loiter for a long time too. A substitute for artillery and they can be domestically made in large numbers from imported parts.

Ukraine tests new EW-resistant combat drone

Ukrainian combat UAV Backfire, resistant to electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures, has been successfully tested on the battlefield and will enter mass production pending approval from the Defense Ministry, Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in a Telegram post on...

news.yahoo.com

Ukrainian Defence Ministry's commission approves Backfire drone resistant to Russian electronic warfare
Backfire, a Ukrainian-made attack drone that is highly resistant to Russian electronic warfare efforts, has passed the Ukrainian Defence Ministry's commission and is awaiting an order to be approved for operation.

Quote: "Backfire is an attack drone designed by Ukrainian developers who are part of the Brave1 defence cluster. The UAV can fly up to 35 kilometres behind enemy lines and helps to hit Russian artillery, logistics hubs, enemy storage points and command posts.


Ukraine is thinking more like Silicon Valley to defend itself against Russia's electronic warfare

Ukraine is thinking more like Silicon Valley to defend itself against Russia's electronic warfare

The Ukrainian government has hosted hackathons to develop new warfare tech while Ukrainian companies work on drones that are resistant to Russian jamming technology.

news.yahoo.com

• Russian jamming is a major source of frustration for Ukraine as it impacts comms and weapons.
• As a countermeasure, Ukraine has taken several steps to develop new warfare tech.
• This summer, the country hosted a hackathon to seek out technology that can fight Iranian-made drones.

To combat Russia's increasing supply of Iranian-made suicide drones that have wreaked havoc on cities in Ukraine, the Ukrainian government devised a plan: Host a hackathon.
The competition, which took place in June, offered a $1 million contract to companies that could create "alternative systems" to counter the Iranian-made Shahed drones, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Transformation.
...

 

[BudmanTX]

guessing the music wasn't that good, she got a visit....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1727086420924547240

 

[cannabineer]

I figure they will run out of equipment and logistics before troops. America could end this war quickly with a different mix of weapons, long range ATACMs and permission to hit targets in Russia, or even just in Ukraine. Winning the war next summer will deplete the Russians further and it is an election year in America and a victory will be good for Joe. Cynical perhaps, but everybody from Ben Hodges to every other pundit is casting about for a reason for American reticence and just in time delivery of arms and munitions, and that is my explanation for most of it, in the past year at least. By the time Ukraine gets F-16s in the field, next spring I figure, The Russian AA defenses should be whittled down considerably, and it will be safer for them to operate. If the Russian's aren't gone by the time they arrive, they should be the final blow to drive them out of the country.

Obviously, Ukraine thinks Russian oil in retaliation is more important than hitting their grid and has fewer international law complications. They know what will hurt the Russian's most and can obviously reach and touch it. Their economy is not doing well, and oil revenue is about all they have left, attacking oil and gas infrastructure would cut export revenues and military fuel supplies.

For the attrition model to be effective, Ukraine must be wiping out more than three units of personnel and matériel for each one unit of its own.

Printer has provided two credible counterdata: the large stock of long-range ground-attack missiles still in Russian inventory, and the suggestion that Ukrainian casualties are 170 thousand against the Russians’ perhaps 320 thousand. Ratio less than 2:1.

One thing that gives me pause is that while the Kyiv Independent is maintaining a tally of Russian losses in personnel and equipment, I know of no such open-intelligence tally disclosing and tracking Ukraine’s losses.

So I must evaluate your five-to-one speculation as wishful. It’s hard to get reliable information on who did what to whom, and imo such empty guesses do not advance the discourse.

So far, Ukraine has waged an inspired defense. I hope they continue to do so, but talk about Russians running out of key resources Any Day Now has not been realized.

Bringing my guesses into play, the uncertain supply of weapons and other resources from the West and especially US places Ukraine in considerable jeopardy. Our fraught politics are having a direct effect on the prosecution of the war. The Ru’publicans are pulling hard for Russian interests. It is unlikely that they will be broken any time soon, say by having their overlord convicted and sentenced in one of his several upcoming trials.

So I admit I’m not optimistic— going on the sparse data I have seen.

One thing I’d personally like to see is more losses in the planes/helicopters category. But I think the gifts of capable air defense remain well below the effective threshold. If Russia starts to use its multiengine heavies to start tossing Kinzhal etc. while Ukraine’s air force is still somewhere in the future, it could have strategic consequences imo.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

For the attrition model to be effective, Ukraine must be wiping out more than three units of personnel and matériel for each one unit of its own.

Printer has provided two credible counterdata: the large stock of long-range ground-attack missiles still in Russian inventory, and the suggestion that Ukrainian casualties are 170 thousand against the Russians’ perhaps 320 thousand. Ratio less than 2:1.

One thing that gives me pause is that while the Kyiv Independent is maintaining a tally of Russian losses in personnel and equipment, I know of no such open-intelligence tally disclosing and tracking Ukraine’s losses.

So I must evaluate your five-to-one speculation as wishful. It’s hard to get reliable information on who did what to whom, and imo such empty guesses do not advance the discourse.

So far, Ukraine has waged an inspired defense. I hope they continue to do so, but talk about Russians running out of key resources Any Day Now has not been realized.

Bringing my guesses into play, the uncertain supply of weapons and other resources from the West and especially US places Ukraine in considerable jeopardy. Our fraught politics are having a direct effect on the prosecution of the war. The Ru’publicans are pulling hard for Russian interests. It is unlikely that they will be broken any time soon, say by having their overlord convicted and sentenced in one of his several upcoming trials.

So I admit I’m not optimistic— going on the sparse data I have seen.

One thing I’d personally like to see is more losses in the planes/helicopters category. But I think the gifts of capable air defense remain well below the effective threshold. If Russia starts to use its multiengine heavies to start tossing Kinzhal etc. while Ukraine’s air force is still somewhere in the future, it could have strategic consequences imo.

I'm basing my opinion on the nature of the fighting and the inequalities in weapons, tactics, morale, training, leadership and medical care. Many more wounded Russians don't get any medical help and if they do it is late and inadequate. It is a Ukrainian offensive, but the Russians are attacking and most of the killing is done at long range and not in personal combat.

It was worse for the Ukrainians earlier in the war when the Russians had lots of artillery and ammo, much of which they wasted knocking down Ukrainian cities. Now they don't have much artillery or ammo and the Ukrainians have stripped away their artillery and logistical support with drones and radar directed counter battery fire with longer range accurate guns. Drones are making a difference, and the Russians are learning, but IMO can't adapt, and corruption will see a lot of the funds for it stolen. Drones are saving a lot of artillery shells, and the Ukrainians are short for now. I think by spring the Russians will be in pretty desperate shape in Ukraine, just as the F16s arrive in time for the spring offensive. I think Joe wants a victory before the election and it would be good for Ukraine if he and the democrats got one. No matter what happens with the election the Europeans will finish the job in Ukraine now that they have the Russians on the ropes and know it.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

For the attrition model to be effective, Ukraine must be wiping out more than three units of personnel and matériel for each one unit of its own.

Printer has provided two credible counterdata: the large stock of long-range ground-attack missiles still in Russian inventory, and the suggestion that Ukrainian casualties are 170 thousand against the Russians’ perhaps 320 thousand. Ratio less than 2:1.

One thing that gives me pause is that while the Kyiv Independent is maintaining a tally of Russian losses in personnel and equipment, I know of no such open-intelligence tally disclosing and tracking Ukraine’s losses.

So I must evaluate your five-to-one speculation as wishful. It’s hard to get reliable information on who did what to whom, and imo such empty guesses do not advance the discourse.

So far, Ukraine has waged an inspired defense. I hope they continue to do so, but talk about Russians running out of key resources Any Day Now has not been realized.

Bringing my guesses into play, the uncertain supply of weapons and other resources from the West and especially US places Ukraine in considerable jeopardy. Our fraught politics are having a direct effect on the prosecution of the war. The Ru’publicans are pulling hard for Russian interests. It is unlikely that they will be broken any time soon, say by having their overlord convicted and sentenced in one of his several upcoming trials.

So I admit I’m not optimistic— going on the sparse data I have seen.

One thing I’d personally like to see is more losses in the planes/helicopters category. But I think the gifts of capable air defense remain well below the effective threshold. If Russia starts to use its multiengine heavies to start tossing Kinzhal etc. while Ukraine’s air force is still somewhere in the future, it could have strategic consequences imo.

Speaking of ground attack missiles, have the Russians interdicted a single train carrying arms from the west? They can hit fixed targets, but are useless on the battlefield, attacking cities and civilians won't help them on the battlefield. This time Ukraine promises retaliation for winter grid attacks by going after their oil, not their power grid. The Ukrainians can spot a target on the battlefield and have a HIMARS or ATACMS in the air in minutes, not so the Russians.

IMO the stockpile of missiles is irrelevant if they are of no use on the battlefield, I'm more concerned with the glide bombs.

 

[cannabineer]

I'm basing my opinion on the nature of the fighting and the inequalities in weapons, tactics, morale, training, leadership and medical care. Many more wounded Russians don't get any medical help and if they do it is late and inadequate. It is a Ukrainian offensive, but the Russians are attacking and most of the killing is done at long range and not in personal combat.

It was worse for the Ukrainians earlier in the war when the Russians had lots of artillery and ammo, much of which they wasted knocking down Ukrainian cities. Now they don't have much artillery or ammo and the Ukrainians have stripped away their artillery and logistical support with drones and radar directed counter battery fire with longer range accurate guns. Drones are making a difference, and the Russians are learning, but IMO can't adapt, and corruption will see a lot of the funds for it stolen. Drones are saving a lot of artillery shells, and the Ukrainians are short for now. I think by spring the Russians will be in pretty desperate shape in Ukraine, just as the F16s arrive in time for the spring offensive. I think Joe wants a victory before the election and it would be good for Ukraine if he and the democrats got one. No matter what happens with the election the Europeans will finish the job in Ukraine now that they have the Russians on the ropes and know it.

Without a mirror to the Russian loss estimates, there’s no way to calculate, even approximately, the weight coefficients needed to factor the bolded in in a convincing manner.

I still get the impression that your numbers are arbitrary.

I suspect that the winter will be interesting. If Printer’s missile inventory graphic is close to correct, Russia can put considerable hurt on Ukraine from a fairly safe distance.

It’s possible Ukraine will pull a rabbit out of the hat and wage a precision strike of its own on the usual suspects: rail bridges, power nexi, airfields and pumping stations. And the odd trainful of tanks and fuel trucks …

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

For the attrition model to be effective, Ukraine must be wiping out more than three units of personnel and matériel for each one unit of its own.

Printer has provided two credible counterdata: the large stock of long-range ground-attack missiles still in Russian inventory, and the suggestion that Ukrainian casualties are 170 thousand against the Russians’ perhaps 320 thousand. Ratio less than 2:1.

One thing that gives me pause is that while the Kyiv Independent is maintaining a tally of Russian losses in personnel and equipment, I know of no such open-intelligence tally disclosing and tracking Ukraine’s losses.

So I must evaluate your five-to-one speculation as wishful. It’s hard to get reliable information on who did what to whom, and imo such empty guesses do not advance the discourse.

So far, Ukraine has waged an inspired defense. I hope they continue to do so, but talk about Russians running out of key resources Any Day Now has not been realized.

Bringing my guesses into play, the uncertain supply of weapons and other resources from the West and especially US places Ukraine in considerable jeopardy. Our fraught politics are having a direct effect on the prosecution of the war. The Ru’publicans are pulling hard for Russian interests. It is unlikely that they will be broken any time soon, say by having their overlord convicted and sentenced in one of his several upcoming trials.

So I admit I’m not optimistic— going on the sparse data I have seen.

One thing I’d personally like to see is more losses in the planes/helicopters category. But I think the gifts of capable air defense remain well below the effective threshold. If Russia starts to use its multiengine heavies to start tossing Kinzhal etc. while Ukraine’s air force is still somewhere in the future, it could have strategic consequences imo.

A lot of what you get in war is opinion, the Ukrainians are maintaining excellent OPSEC and not much is leaking out. The Russians on the other hand leak like a sieve with cellphones, texts and telegram posts with anger, complaints and general discontent. The array of obsolete junk they are fielding and buying artillery shells from North Korea and drones from Iran says the most though. I think China is giving the Russians the cold shoulder and I saw they were bitching about it trade is important to Xi and his economy is in bad shape.

 

[cannabineer]

Speaking of ground attack missiles, have the Russians interdicted a single train carrying arms from the west? They can hit fixed targets, but are useless on the battlefield, attacking cities and civilians won't help them on the battlefield. This time Ukraine promises retaliation for winter grid attacks by going after their oil, not their power grid. The Ukrainians can spot a target on the battlefield and have a HIMARS or ATACMS in the air in minutes, not so the Russians.

IMO the stockpile of missiles is irrelevant if they are of no use on the battlefield, I'm more concerned with the glide bombs.

For all their unhinged bluster, perhaps the Russians are capable of reason in certain matters. I can imagine that this is a political calculation.

If they did destroy such a train, the West might react unfavorably, in a fainter echo of Pearl Harbor.

*If this is the case, they’ll also be less likely to use nuclear weapons, since they, you, I and the chickens all know that their invoking the current Ukraine situation as “existential” is all hat and no cattle.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Without a mirror to the Russian loss estimates, there’s no way to calculate, even approximately, the weight coefficients needed to factor the bolded in in a convincing manner.

I still get the impression that your numbers are arbitrary.

I suspect that the winter will be interesting. If Printer’s missile inventory graphic is close to correct, Russia can put considerable hurt on Ukraine from a fairly safe distance.

It’s possible Ukraine will pull a rabbit out of the hat and wage a precision strike of its own on the usual suspects: rail bridges, power nexi, airfields and pumping stations. And the odd trainful of tanks and fuel trucks …

I've posted links to the many advantages Ukraine has, the most fundamental being the shift in perspective to western military culture and responsibility for taking objectives distributed to those doing the job. The valuing of human life and unit cohesion when soldiers care for one another. This is reflected in the tactics used, they don't use unsupported human wave meat attacks with blocking troops at their backs. In terms to casualty ratios, it makes all the difference, as does medical care to avoid most of them being KIA.

I have reasons for the numbers, but earlier in the war when the Russians had lots of artillery and got their shit together somewhat it was different in the early days of Bakhmut, then the dug in Ukrainians took lots of hits. However, since the Russian ran out of shells and are now using junk equipment that is afraid to come near the front, their unsupported meat attacks are mowed down by artillery, mortars, drones and machine guns.

These are the reasons for my personal estimates, since there is not much published on Ukrainian loses, but the Russian dead are easier to count, often using public records in Russia and on the battlefield, since they tend to leave their dead and wounded.

 

[cannabineer]

A lot of what you get in war is opinion, the Ukrainians are maintaining excellent OPSEC and not much is leaking out. The Russians on the other hand leak like a sieve with cellphones, texts and telegram posts with anger, complaints and general discontent. The array of obsolete junk they are fielding and buying artillery shells from North Korea and drones from Iran says the most though. I think China is giving the Russians the cold shoulder and I saw they were bitching about it trade is important to Xi and his economy is in bad shape.

So we are left with one equation in two variables, with a large solution space. So long as we acknowledge that we’re taking long shots.

As for all the obsolete junk etc., that does not exclude the hypothesis that they may be holding a considerable reserve of the good stuff.

In fact, I find it plausible that intelligence about such stores might be inhibiting a revolt in the former Islamic SSRs. Vladolf is probably keenly aware of the danger if a credible capability to put down rebellions in the Caucasus is not held separate. Such rebellions would cook the Russian goose in both Ukraine and Moldova, where Russians are holding annexed territory.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

For all their unhinged bluster, perhaps the Russians are capable of reason in certain matters. I can imagine that this is a political calculation.

If they did destroy such a train, the West might react unfavorably, in a fainter echo of Pearl Harbor.

*If this is the case, they’ll also be less likely to use nuclear weapons, since they, you, I and the chickens all know that their invoking the current Ukraine situation as “existential” is all hat and no cattle.

I'm speaking of a train in Ukraine on the 1000km journey from the Polish border to near the front.

 

[cannabineer]

I've posted links to the many advantages Ukraine has, the most fundamental being the shift in perspective to western military culture and responsibility for taking objectives distributed to those doing the job. The valuing of human life and unit cohesion when soldiers care for one another. This is reflected in the tactics used, they don't use unsupported human wave meat attacks with blocking troops at their backs. In terms to casualty ratios, it makes all the difference, as does medical care to avoid most of them being KIA.

I have reasons for the numbers, but earlier in the war when the Russians had lots of artillery and got their shit together somewhat it was different in the early days of Bakhmut, then the dug in Ukrainians took lots of hits. However, since the Russian ran out of shells and are now using junk equipment that is afraid to come near the front, their unsupported meat attacks are mowed down by artillery, mortars, drones and machine guns.

These are the reasons for my personal estimates, since there is not much published on Ukrainian loses, but the Russian dead are easier to count, often using public records in Russia and on the battlefield, since they tend to leave their dead and wounded.

So, discounting the human-wave attacks, the casualty ratio might be more like 1:1?

 

[cannabineer]

I'm speaking of a train in Ukraine on the 1000km journey from the Polish border to near the front.

I think that’s a rough equivalent to an embassy bombing.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

So we are left with one equation in two variables, with a large solution space. So long as we acknowledge that we’re taking long shots.

As for all the obsolete junk etc., that does not exclude the hypothesis that they may be holding a considerable reserve of the good stuff.

In fact, I find it plausible that intelligence about such stores might be inhibiting a revolt in the former Islamic SSRs. Vladolf is probably keenly aware of the danger if a credible capability to put down rebellions in the Caucasus is not held separate. Such rebellions would cook the Russian goose in both Ukraine and Moldova, where Russians are holding annexed territory.

I think Uncle Sam is keeping the most careful count of all and he isn't saying much... I tend to believe the Ukrainian estimates on Russian losses and so do many others. As I said before though, it is about the attrition of equipment not troops that counts and I think those numbers are the most accurate of all. The Russians had a much bigger advantage in equipment and munitions than in manpower, but mostly pissed it away doing stupid shit.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

So, discounting the human-wave attacks, the casualty ratio might be more like 1:1?

It is a dynamic situation and I think it varied, when the Ukrainians were trying to hold in the east a year ago when the Russians were firing lots of shells it has high for them. Now with new weapons and the Russians diminished a lot it is in the Ukrainian's favor I figure and will stay that way.

 

[cannabineer]

I think Uncle Sam is keeping the most careful count of all and he isn't saying much... I tend to believe the Ukrainian estimates on Russian losses and so do many others. As I said before though, it is about the attrition of equipment not troops that counts and I think those numbers are the most accurate of all. The Russians had a much bigger advantage in equipment and munitions than in manpower, but mostly pissed it away doing stupid shit.

The Russians are masters of maskirovka, operational deception. I consider the absence of unrest in regions that have a mortal hatred of their Russian occupiers to be a big datum leaning in the direction of large equipment reserves held apart from the Ukraine war.

The operational uncertainty has different effects on you and me. I am disinclined to be optimistic.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

The Russians are masters of maskirovka, operational deception. I consider the absence of unrest in regions that have a mortal hatred of their Russian occupiers to be a big datum leaning in the direction of large equipment reserves held apart from the Ukraine war.

The operational uncertainty has different effects on you and me. I am disinclined to be optimistic.

I war realism and caution are the order of the day, but so is optimism and good morale. War is a struggle and that is what is happening here. I've been trying to explain Joe's reticence in providing certain arms to Ukraine that could end the war and what I've come up with is they want to attrite away the Russian equipment, particularly the modern hard or impossible to replace stuff. Call me cynical, but a victory next summer with the Russians on the run from Ukraine would be good for Joe in the election and if he didn't win, he would make sure Vlad was screwed before he left.

Pentagon planners knew about the Russian absolute dependence on their rail network since the cold war and about the difficulty of repairing rail bridges. I'm pretty sure other than tactical nukes, cutting those rail bridges was part of the plan and would stop the Russian hoards in their tracks, if they invaded NATO. It could do the same in Ukraine too, but a longer war is desirable for long term Ukrainian security and driving the bastards out after they are destroyed. If the Russian's don't sign a peace and keep lobbing missiles after being driven out, Ukraine can reciprocate, and Russia's can remain under sanctions. Now that they have Vald on the ropes they are not gonna let him off without beating the living shit out of him.