War

printer said:

Strange, there seems to be no more news about the mutiny. Not even a day old and now old news.

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Airbrushed from history.

printer said:

Bio-Dome?

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he’s a dead ringer for Pauly Shore. Any second I expected some edgy ‘90s slang coming from him in that actor’s signature halting delivery.

He is also interested in the movement of Russian troops from Ukraine to back around Moscow and waiting for the effect on the Russian troops on the front to sink in. The Russians lost a lot of aircraft over this, and it is causing division and confusion in the Russian forces, the FBS will want to know who cooperated with Wagner and will investigate people in the army. All this is great for the Ukrainians and comes at the perfect time, too bad they settled it temporarily.

As Stalin said, "no man no problem", for Vlad it will be no Prigo, no problem, it might be wise for him to buy a Geiger counter watch for teatime and to stay away from high windows, also buy some Novichok antidote and keep it handy along with your own poison expert.

Russian "military blogger", supporter of war in Ukraine Voenkor Kotenok:

"It's time to summarize.

1. Of course, this is not a show. Aircraft were shot down. Pilots have been killed. Sure, we have "plenty" of airplanes in the country with helicopters. An armed military unit almost made it to the capital within 8 hours. The question arises - where is the Minister of Defense? We used to be shown a colonel general commanding a rifle platoon with shouts, "Forward, for the Motherland!" And may I ask, what prevented such a picture from being filmed now? Where is the CHOD (Chief of General Staff) with the operational directorates? Where is an address to his servicemen?

The President spoke, clearly stating this was a military rebellion. And where was the leadership of the Defense Ministry at the time of the armed unit's approach to Moscow? The patrols approached Kashira. Or is it the function of the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the National Guard to stop military units near the capital? But they have light weapons. The most they can do is to protect themselves in their buildings. In this case, very little can be demanded of them.

A question to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense: not only did you allow all this to happen - because if you had behaved normally, perhaps this would not have happened - but where were you on the day this was happening? Or are you only allowed to film clips when there is no threat so you can demonstrate a show to the President the show? Come to your senses, this is not a show. The country has been at war for a year.

2. The history of the events of 1991-1993 was repeated when the phones in the offices of high-ranking officials, who had to make the decisions, went silent. Is it okay that even an operational headquarters for suppressing the rebellion was not created?

No one knows what the negotiations were. Something was brewing internally, something was agreed upon. Thanks to Lukashenko and whoever it was. To the man who saved the country from the disgrace of taking the capital, God bless him.

3. They walked for 8 hours at average speed of a regular bus. It is a question of the loyalty of the elites to current state power. Do we really have to stop a military unit advancing on Moscow with road equipment and road works?

Wagner Group shot down the planes that attacked them. But the authorities have already reached an agreement with them, so there are minimal questions for them now. The question for us is, why give an order to aviation to assault a civilian road? Couldn't we make obstructions? Wasn't there a single tank from Moscow to Rostov to put on the road? Or organize a normal checkpoint and start talking? Not shoot, but negotiate to stop the convoy. Once again, where is military leadership? This is its direct function.

There are a lot of complaints against Wagner: armed, they went to Moscow. You can't behave like that when the country is at war. But besides them, there are a couple of other particularly talented figures. The command to raise helicopters and planes and to attacks a mixed convoy, in which, among other things, civilians are riding about their business, is "genius."

4. By the way, what will we do if the enemy comes like this tomorrow? They will go into the forest in Sumy region and will come out as a sub-unit near Kaluga and go to Moscow. Will it be the same? We will run like chickens without heads around the henhouse and try to flee the capital as far away as as we can? Scary scenarios. I don't even want to imagine.

5. To what level has the most respected and authoritative agency - the Ministry of Defense - been brought? Under martial law, it is not the head of the FSSD (Federal Security Service Directorate) that becomes the chief, but the senior military commander. They have introduced the counterterrorism operation regime, but where is the work of the COR HQ? Who was preparing the defense of Moscow? The government of Moscow and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Who will pay Prigozhin now?

Prigozhin's private army existed thanks to Putin's dirty money.

For the money from selling oil, gas, timber, metals, gold and other resources of Russia to the West and to the East.

Yesterday, Russian media reported that during searches in the offices of the PMCs, colossal amounts of cash were found - 4 billion rubles, (about $50 million).

Prigozhin immediately admitted that this was money of the PMC and that it was intended for paying the so-called "coffin" money - payments to the relatives of killed mercenaries.

"Wagner PMC has existed for 10 years using cash only. When we were working in Africa, in Ukraine and in other countries, when America was a nightmare, everyone was satisfied with cash. And now they came with searches," Prigozhing commented.

Let's talk about the dirty economy of Wagner PMC.

Using simple arithmetic calculations, multiplying the declared number of mercenaries in the PMC - 50,000 people, by their average payment for a bloody contract - RUB 240,000, we get the amount of $150 million a month. And this amount does not include any other costs for the maintenance of Prigogzhin's private army.

According to my rough estimates, maintaining a private Wagner army cost Putin between $250 million and $350 million in cash per month.

It is possible that one of the reasons that prompted Prigozhin to revolt against Putin was the conflict over the verification of how he spent more than $2 billion received from Putin and his oligarchs during the 15 months of war.

We still do not know the reasons why Prigozhin stopped his march on Moscow by his mercenaries. Neither he, nor Putin, nor Lukashenko made a single public statement after the talks.

But I have several questions:

1. Will Putin, after Prigozhin's rebellion, finance his PMC in the same way as before? I highly doubt it! And if not, then where will Prigozhin get $250 million per month to maintain PMCs?

2. Will Prigozhin now be provided with shells, cartridges, missiles - after his mercenaries shot down helicopters and a Russian plane yesterday with the same missiles? I don't think so!

3. Will the Russian military, who until this moment idolized Prigozhin as a real military leader, forgive him the Russian pilots and officers killed by him? I think that he lost their trust, both after the murders and after a cheap provocation about the alleged shelling of the rear camp of the PMC, staged by Prigozhin himself as a pretext for rebellion.

4. How will Prigozhin withstand the powerful blow of Kremlin propaganda? Already last night it was clearly visible how quickly and clearly the position of Kremlin propaganda in relation to the Wagner PMC has changed. From yesterday's heroes, they quickly began to turn into traitors, rebels, and murderers of valiant pilots. A few more weeks and instead of Prigozhin and his accomplices, instead of the Wagnerites "heroes of Russia", propaganda will show them as a bunch of scoundrels, rebels and murderers - which, in fact, they are.

Therefore, future events look obvious to me - yesterday Prigozhin lost his chance to seize power in Russia.

There will most likely not be a second campaign against Moscow, since Wagner PMC will slowly collapse through a gradual reduction in funding for salaries to mercenaries, through contradictions between those who are 100% loyal to Prigozhin and who feel deceived and thrown into the furnace of the ambitions of the bloody Bakhmut butcher.

And Ukraine only benefited from this failed rebellion, as fascist Russia became even weaker - and that's good news!

printer said:

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"Ukraine Matters" guy gives a very good summary and a well grounded speculation about what is happening to the Wagner group and Russia. His speculation is that Wagner is no more and quite rightly observes that Prigozhin has not surfaced on the internet since his announcement to stand down. As was said by others, those who did not participate in the march on Moscow will be "allowed" to sign a contract with the Russia state-sponsored military. Those who participated "will not be prosecuted" (wink, wink).

Anyway, Printer, props for posting this, That guy gave a refreshingly well doe explanation of what he thinks is going on inside Russia and how he thinks this whole thing is very damaging for Russia.

His observation that Wagner group's action reveals how weak the Russian internal security system is makes me wonder how long before distant territories and Russia-puppet states will secede or break away from Russian control.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Who will pay Prigozhin now?

Prigozhin's private army existed thanks to Putin's dirty money.

For the money from selling oil, gas, timber, metals, gold and other resources of Russia to the West and to the East.

Yesterday, Russian media reported that during searches in the offices of the PMCs, colossal amounts of cash were found - 4 billion rubles, (about $50 million).

Prigozhin immediately admitted that this was money of the PMC and that it was intended for paying the so-called "coffin" money - payments to the relatives of killed mercenaries.

"Wagner PMC has existed for 10 years using cash only. When we were working in Africa, in Ukraine and in other countries, when America was a nightmare, everyone was satisfied with cash. And now they came with searches," Prigozhing commented.

Let's talk about the dirty economy of Wagner PMC.

Using simple arithmetic calculations, multiplying the declared number of mercenaries in the PMC - 50,000 people, by their average payment for a bloody contract - RUB 240,000, we get the amount of $150 million a month. And this amount does not include any other costs for the maintenance of Prigogzhin's private army.

According to my rough estimates, maintaining a private Wagner army cost Putin between $250 million and $350 million in cash per month.

It is possible that one of the reasons that prompted Prigozhin to revolt against Putin was the conflict over the verification of how he spent more than $2 billion received from Putin and his oligarchs during the 15 months of war.

We still do not know the reasons why Prigozhin stopped his march on Moscow by his mercenaries. Neither he, nor Putin, nor Lukashenko made a single public statement after the talks.

But I have several questions:

1. Will Putin, after Prigozhin's rebellion, finance his PMC in the same way as before? I highly doubt it! And if not, then where will Prigozhin get $250 million per month to maintain PMCs?

2. Will Prigozhin now be provided with shells, cartridges, missiles - after his mercenaries shot down helicopters and a Russian plane yesterday with the same missiles? I don't think so!

3. Will the Russian military, who until this moment idolized Prigozhin as a real military leader, forgive him the Russian pilots and officers killed by him? I think that he lost their trust, both after the murders and after a cheap provocation about the alleged shelling of the rear camp of the PMC, staged by Prigozhin himself as a pretext for rebellion.

4. How will Prigozhin withstand the powerful blow of Kremlin propaganda? Already last night it was clearly visible how quickly and clearly the position of Kremlin propaganda in relation to the Wagner PMC has changed. From yesterday's heroes, they quickly began to turn into traitors, rebels, and murderers of valiant pilots. A few more weeks and instead of Prigozhin and his accomplices, instead of the Wagnerites "heroes of Russia", propaganda will show them as a bunch of scoundrels, rebels and murderers - which, in fact, they are.

Therefore, future events look obvious to me - yesterday Prigozhin lost his chance to seize power in Russia.

There will most likely not be a second campaign against Moscow, since Wagner PMC will slowly collapse through a gradual reduction in funding for salaries to mercenaries, through contradictions between those who are 100% loyal to Prigozhin and who feel deceived and thrown into the furnace of the ambitions of the bloody Bakhmut butcher.

And Ukraine only benefited from this failed rebellion, as fascist Russia became even weaker - and that's good news!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673051994251034626

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Wagner group is making billions in its operations in Africa. If I were a leader of a failed coup or whatever it was that Prigozhin thought he was doing, I'd have already set in motion an escape to Africa. I've given up guessing what Putin will do. But I think a thousand miles or more between Prigo and Russia would be a relief to the Russian government. I'm still guessing that is what the secret deal was.

Fogdog said:

"Ukraine Matters" guy gives a very good summary and a well grounded speculation about what is happening to the Wagner group and Russia. His speculation is that Wagner is no more and quite rightly observes that Prigozhin has not surfaced on the internet since his announcement to stand down. As was said by others, those who did not participate in the march on Moscow will be "allowed" to sign a contract with the Russia state-sponsored military. Those who participated "will not be prosecuted" (wink, wink).

Anyway, Printer, props for posting this, That guy gave a refreshingly well explained explanation of what he thinks is going on inside Russia and how he thinks this whole think if a very damaging thing for Russia.

His observation that Wagner group's action reveals how weak the Russian internal security system is makes me wonder how long before distant territories and Russia-puppet states will secede or break away from Russian control.

Click to expand...

Ukraine Matters and ATP Geopolitics give some good thoughts on what is happening in Ukraine from day to day. It was interesting when they had a live chat together, they had me for an hour and a half.

I dont understand why they would stop where they did and not continue on with the march if it was a legit coup/revolt. Peirogi or whatever his name is had to know some terrible fate would come to him if he failed...he then just sorta failed on purpose. It just seems very strange and not what a hardened military dude would do.

The explanation of moving them out of a losing situation and over to redeploy in Africa makes quite a bit more sense than mine of moving them to nuke the place.

Russian soldiers executing one of their own paratroopers that showed support for Prigozen's coop. Warning this one is hard to watch and worse to listen too....
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14iucg4

doublejj said:

Russian soldiers executing one of their own paratroopers that showed support for Prigozen's coop. Warning this one is hard to watch and worse to listen too....
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14iucg4

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Many in the army will see it as a stab in the back in time of war with them on the ropes, a betrayal, blood has been spilled. If those Wagner guys are going into the regular army, broken up and assigned as replacements, they might not last long. I can't see this ending well for Progo or his minions, he is useful in Africa though, or at least his company and troops are. It works out for the Ukrainians though and the timing was perfect for fucking up the Russian morale. Vlad will need to keep several BTGs of loyal troops around Moscow now and perhaps convert some of his security police to heavy weapons, it all adds up.

Anatoly Nesmiyan, analytical blogger, analyzes yesterday's situation with Prigozhin.

These are his thoughts:

Russian regime, having exhaled from yesterday's horror, will now pretend that everything is going according to plan and not much has happened. There is not much it can do about it because the conclusions, of course, are extremely disappointing for the regime.

Yesterday we saw almost an agony, but it went through a stage of brief clinical death, after which the dying regime did wake up and returned to its former "vegetable" existence.

It seems Prigozhin was quite lucky he did not make it to Moscow on time because he would have captured it for sure. All those pompous roadblocks and checkpoints, hastily built on his way, turned out to be a problem only for civilians who got stuck on the roads; not only did they not stop the Wagner convoys, but Wagner did not even notice them.

In general, if Prigozhin had reached Moscow, he would have taken it, after which the situation would have been completely different - what do and why he needs it at all. At the same time, not the entire Wagner PMC went to Moscow, but about 4-5 thousand people. The Russian army, which a year ago was second best in the world, quickly became the second best army in Ukraine, and now it has also won an honorable second place in the Russian Federation, forfeiting the first place in points to the Wagner Group.

I am surprised that Prigozhin was not awarded a second Hero's Star by Putin's decree yesterday - that would have been the logical conclusion of all the events. No one has ever managed to go from patriot to terrorist and back to patriot so quickly in one day.

In general, the agony of the regime goes quite in line with the plot, there are no particular deviations. The regime is incapable of anything, not even facing terror. As soon as it faces real terrorists skilled in violence, it immediately falls apart and scatters. It only has the capacity and ability to deal with the unarmed and defenseless.

HGCC said:

I dont understand why they would stop where they did and not continue on with the march if it was a legit coup/revolt. Peirogi or whatever his name is had to know some terrible fate would come to him if he failed...he then just sorta failed on purpose. It just seems very strange and not what a hardened military dude would do.

The explanation of moving them out of a losing situation and over to redeploy in Africa makes quite a bit more sense than mine of moving them to nuke the place.

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Peirogi's (lol) motivation was clear. PMC Wagner troops and officers including himself were required to sign a contract that put them under the leadership of the commanders that Prigo had been excoriating online. It was a demotion and probably the first step toward Prigo being sent on a suicide mission. Signing a contract that made him a subordinate of people he despised and disrespected was not going to happen. What he planned to accomplish by the revolt and march on Moscow is not clear to me at all. Maybe somebody could fill me in on that. I find it difficult to believe that Prigo could have just marched into Moscow over the dead bodies of Russian servicemen and be accepted as the new leader of Russia. Coups don't succeed unless the cooperation of the military and other arms of the government are secured before the coup begins. Shooting his way into the city, killing the militia trying to guard it and driving tanks to the doors where the seats of power reside was only going to drive people away.

Putin made it clear in his public address on Saturday that whatever Prigo intended when he reached Moscow was not going to happen. In true gangster style, Putin made an offer that Prigo could not refuse and Prigo immediately did a complete 180 turn. The best description of the situation I've heard came from a source that Printer posted, Ukraine Matters. According to him, Prigo violated social norms in Russia when he up and left the scene. When Prigozhin made the snap decision to leave, a lot of people who joined or supported him were left twisting in the wind. His actions were viewed as betraying people's trust and not acting on his words. According to Ukraine Matters, this is not how a national leader or even local strong man is expected to act and draws a strong reaction from people in Russian society. So, Prigozhin is now dead politically, both with the government elites and the people of Russia. Paramilitary Organization Wagner is in the same boat. Ukraine Matters believes Wagner is over and dead. He points out that nobody has heard from Pirozhin since he turned back to Ukraine. Maybe he made it alive to Belarus but all lines communication from him have gone silent.

I'd get the hell out of Dodge and head to where the Billions are being made in Africa if I were tangled up in that mess. I don't know how feasible that is. Some say it's not. But still, if Putin offered that to Prigo and his men, that would be an offer they could not refuse. But then again, the curtain has fallen. The show is over and we didn't get to see how it all ended. Like an old time movie, the damsel in distress is hanging onto a root and looked likely to fall off the cliff when the movie stopped with a "to be continued" notice.

To be continued