War

DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
View attachment 5095090

I've heard some GQP types talk as if the sanctions carve-out for energy imports from Russia is a scandal and a shame. I don't think those critics understand what sanctions are supposed to do. Objectives are many but the main one is to degrade Russia's ability to wage war in the 21st century. Constraints on sanctions are also many but two stand out: keep economic recovery from the pandemic on track and don't hurt the little guys in Russia.

So, this bit about sanctions carve-outs for Russian energy imports into the US and EU. Doing that reduces immediate effects of trade sanctions on the Russian economy. Basically, 70% of Russian exports will proceed. A large fraction of the remaining exports are wiped out but not a devastating blow to either Russia or the West. Europe continues get the energy supplies they need and the US gets the benefit of diversification that the relatively small amount of energy from Russia provides. For now.

The Biden administration and EU can do more later. This gives leverage in negotiation. If Vlaldimir Putin becomes more like Vlad the Impaler then stiffer sanctions can be applied. This is how to conduct negotiation with a psychopath. Never bargain from weakness. Take action and hold options in reserve to let them know there will be consequences for their actions.
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I'm sure it has all been mapped out, the objective now is to destroy Vlad and his circle, not Russia, we will just have to pick up the pieces afterwards. Military pressure must also be carefully applied for more immediate effect and to drain the treasury.

I'm hearing reports of operational Russian vehicles abandoned by Russian conscripts on a large scale basis. If this keeps up the Russians will provide the Ukrainians with all the equipment they need! Moral is poor among a conscript army that just suffered a massive pay cut in an unpopular war. Vlad's entire army grew up with the internet and cellphones, many are very connected 19 year old's who don't get news from state TV.
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
We can say it is a humanitarian effort to save the lives of these kids who the Ukrainians capture, they are pissed and can't feed prisoners, going to the west would involve signing a parole contract and perhaps living in Germany or France for a spell. They would be happy and free, on European TV news too! Why they even get paid...
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my first instinct would be to use them as human shields against the russians, but 1., putin would give a fuck less and order them mown down.
2., a lot of them seem to be kids who were lied to, and are trying to do the right thing when they find out whats really going on,
and 3., that would make us, the Ukrainians, everyone involved,...not as bad as putin, but worse than we are now....
fucking morals and empathy suck...
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Roger A. Shrubber said:
my first instinct would be to use them as human shields against the russians, but 1., putin would give a fuck less and order them mown down.
2., a lot of them seem to be kids who were lied to, and are trying to do the right thing when they find out whats really going on,
and 3., that would make us, the Ukrainians, everyone involved,...not as bad as putin, but worse than we are now....
fucking morals and empathy suck...
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Right now they are disarming them and I believe releasing them, it is very good PR and they are waging an epic information warfare effort and have gained massive public support. Staking kids to rubble would ruin the whole image!
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Roger A. Shrubber said:
my first instinct would be to use them as human shields against the russians, but 1., putin would give a fuck less and order them mown down.
2., a lot of them seem to be kids who were lied to, and are trying to do the right thing when they find out whats really going on,
and 3., that would make us, the Ukrainians, everyone involved,...not as bad as putin, but worse than we are now....
fucking morals and empathy suck...
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Zelenskiy ran a highly successful TV production company in Russia and was a celebrity there for years, he is well known. He gave it all up and moved back home with the rise of Putin. He is most likely behind the truly masterful PR and information campaign with himself in the leading role. It has completely blown the Russian propaganda campaign out of the water and rendered their cyber efforts useless. Courage is highly contagious and never goes out of fashion, people admire and respect it and want to emulate it, his people and even European leaders. Even a guy like joe looks at this an says if he can say fuck you Vlad staring down tanks, then I can do the same in the SOTU, though using nice language. Shit it is even fantastically popular with the MAGA base, white Christians with guns and guts fighting for freedom, you could not design a better image to give them woodies.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
captainmorgan said:
Global free trade is dead if anyone noticed, and the changes that will result, this will get ugly, just not sure how fast.
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Not dead yet and as soon as the bad man mad Vlad goes away it will be back. I figure Vlad's days are numbered, he won't survive what is about to happen to Russia, but it might happen in Belarus first.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I'm sure it has all been mapped out, the objective now is to destroy Vlad and his circle, not Russia, we will just have to pick up the pieces afterwards. Military pressure must also be carefully applied for more immediate effect and to drain the treasury.

I'm hearing reports of operational Russian vehicles abandoned by Russian conscripts on a large scale basis. If this keeps up the Russians will provide the Ukrainians with all the equipment they need! Moral is poor among a conscript army that just suffered a massive pay cut in an unpopular war. Vlad's entire army grew up with the internet and cellphones, many are very connected 19 year old's who don't get news from state TV.
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It's a bit early to start chest bumping.
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I'm sure it has all been mapped out, the objective now is to destroy Vlad and his circle, not Russia, we will just have to pick up the pieces afterwards. Military pressure must also be carefully applied for more immediate effect and to drain the treasury.

I'm hearing reports of operational Russian vehicles abandoned by Russian conscripts on a large scale basis. If this keeps up the Russians will provide the Ukrainians with all the equipment they need! Moral is poor among a conscript army that just suffered a massive pay cut in an unpopular war. Vlad's entire army grew up with the internet and cellphones, many are very connected 19 year old's who don't get news from state TV.
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russians are people, just like everyone else, some of them aren't going to want to die for putie's pocketbook, or his fantasy about bringing back an empire most of them never lived in...but just like the white nationalist here, they will have some members who are happy to kill who ever they're allowed to kill...i hope the enlightened youth far outnumber the wolves looking for blood, but i wouldn't count on it for long.
there have been about 150 thousand russian troops sent to Ukraine so far, out of about 1 million on active duty, or slightly less than 1/6th of his available forces. if he divides his remaining forces into thirds, two thirds for homeland defense, one third for Ukraine, that would be another 280 thousand troops...
this is still going to be very ugly, unless it ends very quickly
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
It's a bit early to start chest bumping.
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It's fun to speculate about Joe and NATOs rapidly expanding options and Vlad's diminishing ones. After what the fucker did and is doing, I'm sad to say his rapid demise has delighted me, though I am concerned about nukes. An object lesson that wars have unintended consequences, especially when fueled by hubris and lust for power. Everybody likes to see the little guy surprise the bully and kick the shit out of him Foggy, movies are made about it all the time, it is a major theme! :lol: Movies will be made about this too, I hope they have happy endings, but not for all I fear, Vlad among them.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Roger A. Shrubber said:
russians are people, just like everyone else, some of them aren't going to want to die for putie's pocketbook, or his fantasy about bringing back an empire most of them never lived in...but just like the white nationalist here, they will have some members who are happy to kill who ever they're allowed to kill...i hope the enlightened youth far outnumber the wolves looking for blood, but i wouldn't count on it for long.
there have been about 150 thousand russian troops sent to Ukraine so far, out of about 1 million on active duty, or slightly less than 1/6th of his available forces. if he divides his remaining forces into thirds, two thirds for homeland defense, one third for Ukraine, that would be another 280 thousand troops...
this is still going to be very ugly, unless it ends very quickly
Click to expand...
I never said it was going to be easy, it will be long hard and cruel, or it could end with a single Bullet in Moscow and the longer it goes on the probability of that happening increases. There could be trouble in Belarus, it's ripe for it with sanctions applied, Vlad's major axis of advance on the capitol is from Belarus a Russian speaking country that had to be pacified by Russian Troops weeks ago. It could all fall apart very quickly. The people in Belarus know what is going on in Ukraine and courage is very contagious.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
Roger A. Shrubber said:
my first instinct would be to use them as human shields against the russians, but 1., putin would give a fuck less and order them mown down.
2., a lot of them seem to be kids who were lied to, and are trying to do the right thing when they find out whats really going on,
and 3., that would make us, the Ukrainians, everyone involved,...not as bad as putin, but worse than we are now....
fucking morals and empathy suck...
Click to expand...
Putin - "They looked like Ukrainians."
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/russian-pows-say-they-were-used-like-a-meat-shield-they-sent-us-to-death/

do you suppose there is a golden mean type of principal that controls the universe? for order to be maintained, the far extremes are allowed to ossify, and disintegrate, so that the center can achieve balance? that no matter how far we evolve, there will always be evil people who will oppose those who work to make our global society a better place? are we doomed to do these kinds of things over and over forever, times of prosperity, followed by balancing waves of death and destruction? metaphysics makes my head hurt.
i wonder what putin expected his soldiers to do when they encountered resistance, after being told that they were expected, and would be welcomed?
soldiers have a duty to follow orders, legal orders. they have a duty to question obviously illegal orders, as well.
 
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