War

DIY-HP-LED said:

This must be a blow for Vlad, she was one of his fans and apologists. If he didn't invade Ukraine she might have stood a better chance, like Trump, she got thrown under the bus.
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Emmanuel Macron wins France's presidential election | CNN

Emmanuel Macron has won France's presidential election, fending off a historic challenge from far-right candidate Marine Le Pen during Sunday's runoff vote.

www.cnn.com

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I was actually worried for a bit, I'll admit. Hopefully that's her out the game for good now.

JamieThePainter said:

I was actually worried for a bit, I'll admit. Hopefully that's her out the game for good now.

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Vlad kinda got cut off from the internet and social media about 60 days before the election. Many of his hackers and trolls probably left or are creating shit for internal consumption and not screwing around in the west as much. The last time France got invaded, the far right had a lot to do with impairing readiness and became collaborationist during the Nazi occupation.

Having a knife stuck in NATO and the EUs back during a war would be very bad. This war will change the political map of Europe and relegate Russia to a third rate economic power and military threat. Belarus could be the next domino to fall, they get lot's of western and Ukrainian TV and radio and it is under de facto Russian occupation.

I was kind of hoping Belarus would take this opportunity to overthrow their puppet seeing as Putin's gang are otherwise, uh, occupied.

JamieThePainter said:

I was actually worried for a bit, I'll admit. Hopefully that's her out the game for good now.

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What she represents is not out of the game and it is largely fueled by immigration and migration. This is more intensely felt in countries with smaller cultures and linguistic bases. So the level of global migration must be controlled or we will get reactionary governments everywhere, not just in America or Europe. Also people must be lead up and not down, it's easier to go down than up.

JamieThePainter said:

I was kind of hoping Belarus would take this opportunity to overthrow their puppet seeing as Putin's gang are otherwise, uh, occupied.

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It might happen and would most likely involve a coup, but right now it's wait and see how it goes in Ukraine. If Vlad's army is destroyed there and there is trouble in other places, it could happen, there are Belarussian fighters training and fighting in Ukraine for this purpose. Lukashenko lost two elections there and cheated his head off, he is deeply unpopular and jails all opposition, rail workers were recently disrupting railway service because of the war.

If Finland joins NATO and Belarus goes along with with Ukraine in a defensive alliance, then Europe will be neighbors with 80% of the Russian population and their two major cites, St. Petersburg and Moscow are in TV and radio broadcast range. Most young people know the truth and are connected or were in these countries, they do the fighting, protesting, resisting and eventually voting. An economically thriving liberal democratic Ukraine next door to Russia would be a bitter pill to swallow, especially when Russians live like shit and know it. It would be worse for Vlad and his ilk, if Belarus went the same way as Ukraine, with their help.

Office of the President of Ukraine: we invited the Russians to hold a special round of negotiations at the walls of Azovstal
Aleksey Arestovich, an adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, said that Kyiv had offered to hold a special round of negotiations with the Russian delegation near the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. The purpose of the talks will be to establish an immediate ceasefire in Mariupol, many days of humanitarian corridors, as well as the release or exchange of Ukrainian soldiers blocked on the territory of the plant, Reuters cites an excerpt from Mr. Arestovich's video message.

Let's talk about defense companies, money, and Ukraine....

Could this be a move in the south? It would cut off those forces east of them, north of the Dnieper River, if they held it to the river. These fellows usually are ahead of the media a bit, though they quote Ukrainian military sources. Chopping the Russians up into smaller pockets would be logical.
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Kherson: Russian Forces REPULSED By Armed Forces of Ukraine

JamieThePainter said:

I was actually worried for a bit, I'll admit. Hopefully that's her out the game for good now.

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Instead of "Whack-A-Mole" we have "Whack-The-Nazi" They pop up everywhere.
Nice to read she failed!
I was worried.

This could make the May 9th military parade in Moscow interesting, with a mix of thermobaric and cluster fragmentation warheads. Red square would look like a scene from Bucha, with dead soldiers and burned out tanks and vehicles. Vlad and his cronies would be hiding in Lenin's tomb when the last one came into trough the door... It might be a response, if Vlad uses nukes before then. The fighting in the east is in open country with armor and dug in positions, tactical nukes might not be effective since troops are pretty spread out.
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US to give Ukraine M142 HIMARS systems with a range of up to 500 kilometers.

Vlad is screwed and the visit by top state department and pentagon officials today put the seal on the deal. Uncle Sam is all in and Ukraine has been given a shopping list and credit card. Other allies are helping too, but not nearly as much as Uncle Sam can. Winning this war and kicking Vlad out of Ukraine will change the map of Europe, bleed Russia white and get rid of Vlad. It also opens up many geopolitical possibilities in central Asia too, including the break away of Russian republics. Vlad showed the way to do this by installing friendly governments and toppling unfriendly ones, the difference is this time popular democratic movements will topple them.

If he loses over half of his equipment in Ukraine and expends most of his advanced weapons, he won't be able to replace them and will be weak in the future. Strong men need to be strong and perceived that way, people need to believe they have a chance to win and Russia has been proven far from invincible when outside help is provided. I don't think America will stop with Ukraine, Joe might just let them loose on Russia and it's neighbors. There is plenty of opportunity there for the CIA and western intelligence agencies these days and into the future.
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Ukraine War: Heavy weapons heading to Ukraine?

Let's say Vlad is ejected from Ukraine by summer, before he can even muster his second army and half of his equipment is gone along with most of his precision munitions. Next there is trouble in Belarus and that is a lot closer to Moscow than Donbass! He has to fight another war in Belarus against a coup and popular uprising supported by Ukraine, say he loses that one too. Now his army is very weak after two wars and Georgia decides it wants it's territory that was stolen back. Perhaps one of the federation republics or more want to break away. Perhaps China takes an interest in central Asia and a break away Russian Republic on the Pacific coast?

This and subsequent wars around and inside Russia could lead to it's dissolution, like the Soviet Union, it is still an empire of conquered peoples in many places. Russia is actually a multi national and multicultural country, with other cultures either suppressed or not supported by the government, it was always held together by violence and intimidation and Russia always dominated the others.

DIY-HP-LED said:

This could make the May 9th military parade in Moscow interesting, with a mix of thermobaric and cluster fragmentation warheads. Red square would look like a scene from Bucha, with dead soldiers and burned out tanks and vehicles. Vlad and his cronies would be hiding in Lenin's tomb when the last one came into trough the door... It might be a response, if Vlad uses nukes before then. The fighting in the east is in open country with armor and dug in positions, tactical nukes might not be effective since troops are pretty spread out.
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US to give Ukraine M142 HIMARS systems with a range of up to 500 kilometers.

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Actually, I think it would be much more poetic justice if a swarm of Switchblade 300's took out every piece in the parade.

"Oops. I did not realize those nuclear missiles in the parade were really loaded."

Looks like Vlad finally realized it will be weapons without end for Ukraine and they will be going to eager and skilled hands. The Pentagon is also trying to get old Soviet era munitions factories up and running in eastern Europe, for artillery munitions I would suppose. The flood gates have opened and Uncle Sam is back in business with the embassy in Kyiv, the secretaries of defense and state even came for a visit yesterday to make the point. Now it's becoming a manufacturing challenge, to make enough munitions and to gather stockpiles from allies. I think lend lease might work like the name implies this time, America will actually loan the Ukrainians some equipment for a year and then get it back. Things like bridging equipment to cross rivers and things like that, much of it stored in Europe.

Once the Russians exhaust themselves and are worn down by repeated failed attacks in the east. The Ukrainians will counterattack and I suspect if they put enough heat on that, the Russians might collapse and it will be a rout to the border in the east. They could also be looking to cut off and isolate the Russians north of the Dnieper river in the south and recently made some attacks there.

Vlad must know at this point the plan is to destroy as much as he wants to throw in and so far he has most of his army committed there. Troops can be replaced in a year or two, his tanks and equipment cannot and anything with electronics in it like drones, communication equipment and precision munitions is out of his reach with sanctions. Once his army is spent it will be weaker for the next war, as other people under Russia's domination rise up. Any future army he does raise will be largely infantry and would be devastated by modern arms. More importantly they need to change the very structure of their army, but I doubt they can do this for several reasons.
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Russia failing in its war aims, Antony Blinken says after Ukraine visit - BBC News

Bryansk: Russian Oil Depot BLAZING For Unknown Reasons

Ukraine: The hardware each country is sending


The delivery of military aid to Ukraine is continuing, as Russia's invasion of the country goes on.

Simon Newton has been looking at the latest kit being sent from the West.

The Afghanistan debacle contributed to the break up of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had 14,453 dead in nine years of Afghanistan. Now, after surpassing that death toll in weeks, Putin has committed to a guerilla war with Ukrainians that are far better armed and very, very determined.

Over 30 countries are shipping supplies/weapons to Ukraine. One low flying plane in Ukraine ran into a utility pole. I think Putin has a long problem brewing. Now that Ukraine is hitting Russian turf it will get interesting. They threatened the us again about shipping weapons.