NY is currently expecting 140,000 hospitalizations over the next month. From my understanding about 15%-20% infected need hospitalization. Assuming 20% , does this mean ny authorities think there are roughly 700,000 ny’ers with the virus currently? This seems very low. Consider ny metro area has 20 million people. 8 million ride the public transit weekly. according to Dr Birx the virus has been active and spreading around NY for several weeks. If thats the case , dont their current estimates seem low?
Now consider the numbers from new york . 3,805 hospitalizations, 285 deaths. Thats a mortality rate of nearly 7.5% for those hospitalized. This is with ny having all the resources it needs to meet the current influx. As ny resources begin to stretch thin over coming weeks the mortality rate for those hospitalized will certainly rise. So assuming NY recieves needed resources the current projections , 140,000 beds, 40,000 icu’s. Currently they have only 50,000 beds. Lets just assume they get all the resources they need for their current projection, there would still be over 10,000 fatalities in NY in the coming weeks.
20 million in the ny metro area , with heavily used public transit system, serving as hub for transmission to 8 million riders a week, where the virus was active for weeks before the “lockdown”. Now lets assume instead of about 700,000/million out of the 20 million people currently having it, the real number is twice the current estimate. Lets assume its 2 million out of 20 million. That would require 200,000 beds. If its actually 5 out of the 20 million that are positive. Ny would need a million beds. And we would see very large number of people die before finding a hospital bed. Fatalities would reach hundreds of thousands just for NY. Please understand im not saying this is the case. Just pointing out the potential depending on how many were infected before the “lockdown”.
Couple days ago there were many people saying 50-75 % would get it. If that were the case we would lose nyc in the coming weeks and 1-2 million people would die in the state in the coming months. BUT, Dr.Birx pointed out at the conference couple days ago that 50-75 % sould not be infected till the virus runs through the population in multiple cycles. That would be 12 to 18months? Reading between the lines, Is she saying that would be the case if we kept up quarantine and social distancing till the vaccine?
Am i misunderstanding something? Please fee freel to correct.