Lockdowns don't work.

Fogdog · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
We're using isolation differently. When I have mentioned isolating a city, I'm referring to travel restrictions in and out as opposed to closing businesses. However, I do understand that lockdowns have been implemented in places that have restricted travel.

yeah, travel restrictions are part of containment strategies but the US is already past our ability to contain the virus. It's already spread too far for that to work. Obviously, if a foreign city has a high rate of people who are contagious, travel restrictions will be necessary if we have containment in the US.

But I'm talking as if we have a rational, science driven and socially conscious government. Trump isn't doing anything I'm talking about. He's driving us toward an uncontrolled plague.

tangerinegreen555 · Apr 13, 2020

mustbetribbin said:
Why did doctor Fauci first say it had a transmission rate of 0.9 when this first began, but now they're saying 3.9 is the latest number, sounds like a BIG LIE (think Hitler mein kampf) to me.

Thanks Bill Gates for our C.ertificates o.f V.acinnation ID's we love our C.o.V.ID's such great certificates to have and hold. Yay

What you think hardly counts though, you've been proving that for years.

abandonconflict · Apr 13, 2020

Fogdog said:
But I'm talking as if we have a rational, science driven and socially conscious government

There are actually quite a few in the US.

mustbetribbin · Apr 13, 2020

tangerinegreen555 said:
What you think hardly counts though, you've been proving that for years.

"This is my Certificate. There are many like it, but this one is mine. My Certificate is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as I must master my life. Without me, my Certificate is useless. Without my Certificate, I am useless."

Yay vote for Bill Gates Pres in 2024 this is a big win for Vaccination Certificates across the Globe, we're winning! Hooray for CoV ID's wooooo!!! I love viruses when they don't have scientific names don't you? No scientific basis at all, the I isn't the I in v'I'rus , the D is not for disease, get it? It's a vaccination certificate ID bruh, just get it.

zeddd · Apr 13, 2020

Unclebaldrick said:
Yep. From early on in this mess, public health officials have been screaming about the need for action. But we did little to nothing.

Thanks Obama.

You put Jared on the case.

zeddd · Apr 13, 2020

Fogdog said:
So, I'm outraged and stunned by the way Trump and Republicans behaved in January and early Feb. There is no good reason why we didn't learn from South Korea and implement their strategy. The main mistake the Republican administration made was to decide against using the test already available through WHO. Instead, the US developed its own tests then botched the roll out. We STILL have not put in place anything like what S Korea did.

Lockdowns weren't meant to be permanent, they were necessary to damp down the rate at which the number of people that were being hospitalized so that hospitals could continue to function. Without a containment strategy in place, ending lockdowns or avoiding them where they haven't been needed yet, just sets us up for a new wave of sick people heading to ICUs. The only way we can come out of lockdown and avoid mass die-offs, is if we have good response teams to isolate each and every new case, then trace who has been exposed and isolate them. I don't know what else we can do without a tested, safe, reliable and available vaccine.

Oh, and fuck antivaxxers.

Good luck waiting out for that vaccine. Sars1 was 17 years ago and still no vaccine as the developmental Vaxs caused pulmonary immunopathology. The time frame of a year is absurd

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
But it's not. I honestly can't see any benefit for me. I would very much rather catch it, be sick as fuck for a few weeks and not see anyone, and then have antibodies. Same for my infant son. Same for my wife. I have work to do environmentally. It's important and I'm not saying people can't lock themselves in. Forcing everyone in because they don't know how to keep from spreading is killing the global economy.

That is what is motivating this thread, your personal concerns. It's the end of tourism and the end of your job and probably the end of your time in the philippines and life there. This is a dangerous and stupid idea and is essentially the same one republican idiots were spouting, throw grandma under the bus, throw your own dad under the fucking bus. Fear can distort our thinking and this is the case here with this irrational notion, there is a note of desperation in all this. You are not an expert in public health and you might as well be hawking colloidal silver as this idea as far as being a danger to the public goes. If you want to stand behind this immoral and unethical fear driven bullshit, I'll make you sweat for it.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
reported as spam

He mounts a better argument than you do, try addressing it.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
There's a nuance to what I'm saying.

Exploding case numbers correlate with two things and neither is about whether or not cities have implemented house arrest orders. The exploding case numbers correlate first with how many people were going in and out of those cities and from where and from when and secondly, with testing.

Lockdowns have a very slight effect on the R0 of SARS-CoV-2 that is extremely difficult to prove. The cost of that very slight R0 adjustment is too high. It's starvation, a loss of other medical services and unsustainable social unrest and economic apocalypse. To say that lockdowns are saving lives is completely wrong, especially since you can still isolate yourself with no lockdown.

Then you add in the element of herd immunity arising from recoveries. It's a nuanced argument, try to follow.

The nuisance involves the death of hundreds of thousands, how do you plan on staying below hospital and ventilator capacity? Got a master plan?

abandonconflict · Apr 13, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
He mounts a better argument than you do, try addressing it.

You didn't address the argument in the OP and I'm not going to watch the youtube spam. All you did here was single out the one poast where I did air my personal concerns and ignore all of the other arguments. In fact, that's exactly your forte and it's annoying as fuck. You shit post multiple comments into a thread, burying pertinent posts under your spam while ignoring the topic entirely. So no, I'm not addressing the stupid fucking youtube video or your personal attacks.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
We have to find the right balance of continuing to have a civil society and social distancing. By all means, cancel big events like concerts and parades, close locations where masses gather and only allow a certain number of people into buildings at a time. Not letting peopel sunbath on the fucking beach is making things worse, not better. What should have happened was early travel bans. Remarkably, that's what the administration tried to do, but nobody wanted to listen because that's what he's always wanted to do and peopel are just automatically inclined to disregard Trump.

How about this idea, we draft all 18 to 40 year olds and put them behind wire for a big measles party and only let them out if they pas an antibody test. Sure a lot will die, but sacrifices have to be made...

abandonconflict · Apr 13, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
The nuisance involves the death of hundreds of thousands, how do you plan on staying below hospital and ventilator capacity? Got a master plan?

Even for the cities with more critical cases than ventilators, it can't be proven that lockdowns actually worked for shit. All of the improvements could easily be explained by the other factors.

abandonconflict · Apr 13, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
How about this idea, we draft all 18 to 40 year olds and put them behind wire for a big measles party and only let them out if they pas an antibody test. Sure a lot will die, but sacrifices have to be made...

Read the thread before you shitpost in it. There are a lot of arguments. Pay specific attention to my exchange with @Fogdog. He patiently argued in defense of the lockdowns point by point and I retorted to them. Obviously, you aren't going to agree, but you'll see that there is substance to my side of the debate that has nothing to do with the reactionary politics you wish to attack.

abandonconflict · Apr 13, 2020

If you want a youtube video, try this one.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
You didn't address the argument in the OP and I'm not going to watch the youtube spam. All you did here was single out the one poast where I did air my personal concerns and ignore all of the other arguments. In fact, that's exactly your forte and it's annoying as fuck. You shit post multiple comments into a thread, burying pertinent posts under your spam while ignoring the topic entirely. So no, I'm not addressing the stupid fucking youtube video or your personal attacks.

Any such plan to reopen the economy must be carefully implemented, countries who have done so have had lockdowns to reset and testing for the virus and antibodies, the more Trump fucks up the more it will hurt. The fact is no person can reopen the economy with a magic, people have to feel confident enough to get on planes and go to place to shop. 70% of the population will shelter in place with subsequent economic impacts. Sweden is a disaster in the making and I'm watching it and have been.

We are going to experience a great depression and there is nothing anybody can do about, it will be life changing for everybody, yourself included. Times are going to be hard, get your ass and your family back to the states ASAP, your job and life are over there and it will get a lot worse there than in America.

Our emotions affect our thinking and we use our intellectual powers to build convincing rationalizations. If your argument had any scientific validity I would argue it with you, but this is more of a moral and ethical debate than a scientific one. Boris Johnson had similar ideas of herd immunity that he was recently disabused of. If you think I was annoying as fuck before, keep this line of fear driven irrationality up.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
Read the thread before you shitpost in it. There are a lot of arguments. Pay specific attention to my exchange with @Fogdog. He patiently argued in defense of the lockdowns point by point and I retorted to them. Obviously, you aren't going to agree, but you'll see that there is substance to my side of the debate that has nothing to do with the reactionary politics you wish to attack.

I'm working my way through this thread and what I've seen thus far is not good, tell ya what, I'll work through it to the end and see what additional pearls of wisdom you have to drop.

Kassiopeija · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
I donated all my O2 to Cebu city and have dedicated my life to cultivating coral.

hey thats great! so you got a few fields right down your doorstep, is that why you live there? can you already observe the corals are withdrawing from increased water temp?

abandonconflict said:
The real problem sticking out, to me, is that we are not quite seeing the apex in New York, but it's been completely locked down since early March. The average incubation period is 8 days (2-14 days) and from that one can only deduce that it continued spreading very rapidly after the lockdown was implemented.

Problem here is there's no way of telling how the situation would be now w/o the lockdown.

zeddd said:
Good luck waiting out for that vaccine. Sars1 was 17 years ago and still no vaccine as the developmental Vaxs caused pulmonary immunopathology. The time frame of a year is absurd

the development of a vaccine against Sars-1 has been discontinued after the virus was eradicated by other measures.
however, theres no guarantee if and when we'll have one against Sars2

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
No. That's not it at all. In fact, death rates in general are not decreasing as a result of the lockdowns. Also, that comment was kinda racist.

That is false, the data indicates otherwise and there is expert consensus, still working my way through

hanimmal · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
We have to find the right balance of continuing to have a civil society and social distancing. By all means, cancel big events like concerts and parades, close locations where masses gather and only allow a certain number of people into buildings at a time. Not letting peopel sunbath on the fucking beach is making things worse, not better. What should have happened was early travel bans. Remarkably, that's what the administration tried to do, but nobody wanted to listen because that's what he's always wanted to do and peopel are just automatically inclined to disregard Trump.

The only problem with this is Trump takes every position on every issue, so after the fact he has something he can point to and say 'see'. Even broken clocks are right 2x a day.

But he wasn't talking about shutting anything down to UK or anywhere else until it was already too late.

Fogdog said:
So, I'm outraged and stunned by the way Trump and Republicans behaved in January and early Feb. There is no good reason why we didn't learn from South Korea and implement their strategy. The main mistake the Republican administration made was to decide against using the test already available through WHO. Instead, the US developed its own tests then botched the roll out. We STILL have not put in place anything like what S Korea did.

Lockdowns weren't meant to be permanent, they were necessary to damp down the rate at which the number of people that were being hospitalized so that hospitals could continue to function. Without a containment strategy in place, ending lockdowns or avoiding them where they haven't been needed yet, just sets us up for a new wave of sick people heading to ICUs. The only way we can come out of lockdown and avoid mass die-offs, is if we have good response teams to isolate each and every new case, then trace who has been exposed and isolate them. I don't know what else we can do without a tested, safe, reliable and available vaccine.

Oh, and fuck antivaxxers.

The State of the Union address would have been a perfect time to pivot and really come out strong against this. Feb 5th, Trump already got his wish of no witnesses and was going to be let off by the Senate the next day, he could have come out like a hero fighting it then. But he instead had to use it as a political rally.

abandonconflict said:
I understand what lockdowns were intended for. I simply dispute that they have done so. Any case where lockdowns have been argued to flatten the curve, there have also been other measures taken, in particular travel bans. However, better results have been achieved where no such lockdowns have occurred and it's not anecdotal when all of the of these following factors are cited along with those cases (Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong) which clearly demonstrate excellent result and no such lockdowns.

1) results can be explained another way

2) it can not be proven numerically that lockdowns have had any real effect

3) overall death rates have not been favorable because other medical needs are largely ignored

4) The economic impact threatens the very healthcare system that the lockdowns were intended to save

5) it's simply unsustainable and people are going to get sick of it.

If I'm sunbathing on the beach, a hundred feet from anyone, I am safer than I am indoors. Sunlight kills germs too. If I am at the one grocery store that is allowed to operate within a kilometer of my residence, even with a mask on, I could come into contact with billions of fomites and bring the contagion back to my residence.

If there are no cases in my city and people can't visit my city, there will be no cases in my city. Any possible spread through regular supply lines could be traced and investigated. Any visitors who simply must visit my city can isolate for two weeks.

The real problem sticking out, to me, is that we are not quite seeing the apex in New York, but it's been completely locked down since early March. The average incubation period is 8 days (2-14 days) and from that one can only deduce that it continued spreading very rapidly after the lockdown was implemented.

It is not as bad in the states, people can still get out and move without assholes with sticks hitting us, so I feel for you man.

But unfortunately we don't have the same testing that those 3 countries have, nor the ability to track, and worse of all, we had those idiots at spring break and people throwing corona virus parties, people licking deodorant, and 30% of the population buying Trump's kook-aide thinking they are invulnerable. So we unfortunately are not at the tail end, we are just about a week out from those people's contacts when they got home to show signs.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 13, 2020

abandonconflict said:
I didn't watch the youtube video.

You didn't read the Japantimes article.

Do you think that this might me worth waiting for before beginning a Darwinian solution?

This treatment has the potential to lower the mortality rate down to that of the flu, if it did, then perhaps it might shake up the equation a bit and make reopening quicker and easier. Production is under way by now and they are hiring like crazy in Winnipeg and have been for awhile. You might already be familiar with it, sorry, but they aren't letting too much out at this point, so no public data.

Coronavirus: Winnipeg biotech company says COVID-19 treatment nearing production - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca

A biotech company is hoping their experimental COVID-19 treatment could begin production in Winnipeg by the start of the summer.

globalnews.ca

Lockdowns don't work.

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