Lockdowns don't work.

doublejj · Apr 18, 2020

Italy sees sharp decline in ICU patients amid coronavirus lockdown
Italy's coronavirus lockdown has led to a sharp decrease in the number of ICU patients in medical facilities, going from over more than hospitalizations per day to 2,812 as of Friday.

Italy sees sharp decline in ICU patients amid coronavirus lockdown

Italy’s coronavirus lockdown has led to a sharp decrease in the number of ICU patients in medical facilities, going from more than 4,000 hospitalizations per day to 2,812 as of Friday.

thehill.com

abandonconflict · Apr 18, 2020

doublejj said:
Italy sees sharp decline in ICU patients amid coronavirus lockdown
Italy's coronavirus lockdown has led to a sharp decrease in the number of ICU patients in medical facilities, going from over more than hospitalizations per day to 2,812 as of Friday.

Italy sees sharp decline in ICU patients amid coronavirus lockdown

Italy’s coronavirus lockdown has led to a sharp decrease in the number of ICU patients in medical facilities, going from more than 4,000 hospitalizations per day to 2,812 as of Friday.

thehill.com

Italy eased its lockdowns over a week ago and is continuing to ease them even more. Also, it's not a decline, it's a decline in the rate of new admissions. There are still more ICU patients each day than the day prior.

Graphing it as a change in rate of growth makes it appear sharp. It's not so sharp if one is being more vigorously honest, but I will admit, it's a positive change. They're already above the apex and yet they have still begun to open the economy, because they have to.

doublejj · Apr 18, 2020

abandonconflict said:
Italy eased its lockdowns over a week ago and is continuing to ease them even more.

yes because their lockdown worked....

abandonconflict · Apr 18, 2020

doublejj said:
yes because their lockdown worked....

Their lockdown worked to flatten the curve like cyanide saves you from cancer. That's why they are abandoning the strategy despite still having new patients everyday and no vaccine any time soon.

abandonconflict · Apr 18, 2020

All those Italians who died at home should have stayed home and been safe, that way they wouldn't have been added to ICU admissions stats...

Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

Italy is undercounting thousands of deaths caused by the virus in the areas worst hit by the pandemic, a WSJ analysis shows, indicating the human toll may end up being much greater than official data indicate.

www.wsj.com

doublejj · Apr 18, 2020

abandonconflict said:
Their lockdown worked to flatten the curve like cyanide saves you from cancer. That's why they are abandoning the strategy despite still having new patients everyday and no vaccine any time soon.

if only people had listened to me 3 years ago when I began telling everyone to dig-in and start preparing for a trump disaster, they wouldn't be caught off guard by this little lockdown inconvenience.

abandonconflict · Apr 18, 2020

doublejj said:
if only people had listened to me 3 years ago when I began telling everyone to dig-in and start preparing for a trump disaster, they wouldn't be caught off guard by this little lockdown inconvenience.

Nah. They'd still be relying on global supply chains.

Fact is, you tried to ply an article that used ICU admissions as a metric for a curve flattening when that has never been the way it works. That's why that rag is regularly reamed by fact checkers and gets a "mostly factual, right-center" rating.

The Hill - Bias and Credibility

LEAST BIASED These sources have minimal bias and use very few loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or

mediabiasfactcheck.com

The lockdowns did not noticeably slow infection rates in Italy. If they slowed ICU admissions, it's only because they forced people to just die at home.

abandonconflict · Apr 18, 2020

Italy implemeted its lockdown on March 9. There were 9,172 cases. 17 days later, which is widely accepted as an above average incubation period length, there were more than 80k cases and the number of new cases per day was still increasing. By the very virtue of it being a logarithmic graph, it should have flattened even if new cases per day were the same, day after day. You don't have to be a math major to grasp this but some math majors don't. So the curve overcame house odds to not flatten.

They could not stop the spread. Sadly, they failed utterly and the apex correlated with easing. I don't believe easing the lockdowns caused the line to slightly inflect horizontally, they just got as sick as they were going to get. The infection of SARS-CoV-2 spread until so many people had it that the R0 decreased by virtue of there not being enough new hosts though the overwhelming majority were asymptomatic or extremely mild.

zeddd · Apr 19, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
More bullshit zeddd? Ya got something against realistic optimism? Changing quoted text around here is a low move, something Trumpers do zeddd. If you have a point, perhaps you should articulate it and then try to defend it. If not, you're just being a asshole for no reason.

Don't you think new treatment options can change the situation? We don't know for sure about them yet, but will know more in a week, preliminary data does look promising and that's all I'm really saying. This conversation on lockdowns can change with new treatment options.

I have reasonable point of view, your post was idiotic zeddd, perhaps you should man up and apologize. Prove your point, ad hominem attacks make you look like an idiot.

I didn’t change anything, isn’t it time for your nap?

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 19, 2020

zeddd said:
I didn’t change anything, isn’t it time for your nap?

Ya changed the quoted text in the original message and it was a malicious act without justification. If you don't like an idea mount a counter argument.

zeddd · Apr 19, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
Ya changed the quoted text in the original message and it was a malicious act without justification. If you don't like an idea mount a counter argument.

No I didn’t

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 19, 2020

Here is my quoted text that you changed, I know who and what I am, it does not bother me too much to be called names. Do you know who and what you are? I bolded and underlined your changes for you as a memory aid. I'm more disappointed than angry and wish to forget it.

[IMG alt="zeddd"]https://www.rollitup.org/data/avatars/m/722/722065.jpg?1575397134[/IMG]
zeddd
Well-Known Member
Yesterday at 6:18 PM

DIY-HP-LED said:
Yep, PCR and serological tests, I do believe though that treatments will mitigate this disaster and change the dynamic. We will know more within a week about two approaches, a very promising drug and convalescent plasma transfusions, all of these NPI discussions are not taking the dynamic nature of the problem into account. After next week I expect the nature of the conversation will change, depending of the results of a drug trial that will be released soon. I'm locked down anyway, so what's another week while waiting for hope. Remove the terror with effective treatments to lower the mortality rate and dramatically reduce hospital resource requirements, then the rules can change, more so with proper testing.

I'm an idiot, but I have no good cause for optimism, even dumb Donald will be all over a fantasy that seems to work and will drive it forward ASAP.

abandonconflict · Apr 19, 2020

zeddd said:
No I didn’t

He just wants to bury the posts with strong arguments so less people see them.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 19, 2020

abandonconflict said:
Italy implemeted its lockdown on March 9. There were 9,172 cases. 17 days later, which is widely accepted as an above average incubation period length, there were more than 80k cases and the number of new cases per day was still increasing. By the very virtue of it being a logarithmic graph, it should have flattened even if new cases per day were the same, day after day. You don't have to be a math major to grasp this but some math majors don't. So the curve overcame house odds to not flatten.

They could not stop the spread. Sadly, they failed utterly and the apex correlated with easing. I don't believe easing the lockdowns caused the line to slightly inflect horizontally, they just got as sick as they were going to get. The infection of SARS-CoV-2 spread until so many people had it that the R0 decreased by virtue of there not being enough new hosts though the overwhelming majority were asymptomatic or extremely mild.

We are about to see what will happen when social distancing rules are removed, because of deliberate government inaction to support the shutdown, this will lead to disaster. People are desperate and the republicans are responsible for it, the elites have faith in therapies, they will get access to the drug and plasma and know it, fuck everybody else.

Nightly News Full Broadcast (April 18th)

abandonconflict · Apr 19, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
We are about to see what will happen when social distancing rules are removed, because of deliberate government inaction to support the shutdown, this will lead to disaster.

No. It will change nothing. People who are militant house arrest morons will isolate themselves all the same. You can still go lock yourself in even if the government doesn't say you have to. People who have no choice but to go and take part in society will either avoid contamination or they won't.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 19, 2020

abandonconflict said:
No. It will change nothing. People who are militant house arrest morons will isolate themselves all the same. You can still go lock yourself in even if the government doesn't say you have to. People who have no choice but to go and take part in society will either avoid contamination or they won't.

It will dramatically increase the infection rate, overwhelm the hospital system and lead to high mortality rates. You have a point about antisocial elements, but it counters your argument about lockdowns not working, they work if they are vigorously enforced and the population is supported. If the population is unsupported, misinformed and controlled by tribalism, they do stupid shit and we see it on the news. This is just another example of the failed American response, the death toll will go into the hundreds of thousands, it's gonna be a tragedy of epic proportions.

abandonconflict · Apr 19, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
It will dramatically increase the infection rate, overwhelm the hospital system and lead to high mortality rates.

The infection rate is already overwhelming hospitals. It took a national effort to keep enough beds available in New York and people are still dying at home. Even if the infection spreads faster, which you can't prove, the doubling rate in the US is already 6 days which is less than the WHO estimated R0 says it should be (6.4 days). With 700k confirmed cases even if you were to accept that is the total number of infected which, some studies say it could be 50 times higher than that, even if you accept 700k, the entire country will be infected in about a month and a half at that rate. Do the math, double the number until it's above the US population, see how many times you had to double it and multiply that number by six. the product is the number of days until the entire US population is infected and that's with the current measures in place.

We're already in a fucking freefall. The overwhelming majority of people don't even get symptoms and want to go back to work. Just lock your own ass up and stop insisting people with antibodies do so as well.

abandonconflict · Apr 19, 2020

Look at when I said this:

zeddd · Apr 19, 2020

DIY-HP-LED said:
Here is my quoted text that you changed, I know who and what I am, it does not bother me too much to be called names. Do you know who and what you are? I bolded and underlined your changes for you as a memory aid. I'm more disappointed than angry and wish to forget it.

[IMG alt="zeddd"]https://www.rollitup.org/data/avatars/m/722/722065.jpg?1575397134[/IMG]
zeddd
Well-Known Member
Yesterday at 6:18 PM

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#742

Liar. I didn’t change anything, you edited your post. No need to be dishonest just cos your are losing the argument.

DIY-HP-LED · Apr 19, 2020

abandonconflict said:
The infection rate is already overwhelming hospitals. It took a national effort to keep enough beds available in New York and people are still dying at home. Even if the infection spreads faster, which you can't prove, the doubling rate in the US is already 6 days which is less than the WHO estimated R0 says it should be (6.4 days). With 700k confirmed cases even if you were to accept that is the total number of infected which, some studies say it could be 50 times higher than that, even if you accept 700k, the entire country will be infected in about a month and a half at that rate. Do the math, double the number until it's above the US population, see how many times you had to double it and multiply that number by six. the product is the number of days until the entire US population is infected and that's with the current measures in place.

We're already in a fucking freefall. The overwhelming majority of people don't even get symptoms and want to go back to work. Just lock your own ass up and stop insisting people with antibodies do so as well.

Like I said the experiment is about to begin and the numbers of undetected infections are probably higher the 50 x, herd immunity might becoming a factor in some cases. America fucked this up from the get go and cannot wait for treatments to be deployed in any meaningful way and will suffer the consequences of this. The doubling rate going from 6 days to 3 (or lower) will prove this in those places that are stupid, national statistics for America are almost meaningless because there is no national policy or even response. No testing means no meaningful data, both for America and for Sweden.

Where you are, I don't know why they are even bothering with a lockdown, except for public education and banning mass events, there's not much to be done. Many places are copying the response of developed countries, America is copying this response too, but it has the social support infrastructure of a third world country and the real result is gonna be the same one as where you live, along with the mortality rate.