Lockdowns don't work.

So this German peer-reviewed study, dated April 6, concluded that only an average of 6% of cases worldwide were actually detected:

Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) – two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.
In sharp contrast to this, South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections. On the same day the Johns Hopkins University reported that globally there were less than 900,000 confirmed cases, meaning that the vast majority of infections were undetected.

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So if Italy had 9,172 confirmed cases on March 9, they would have had more than 260,000 actual infections at that time. The study estimates that Italy then had "around 3 million" (1 in 20 Italians infected) on March 31, three weeks ago. Sixteen days later, Italy eased its lockdown. On that day, April 15, there were 162,488 confirmed cases. This, according to the study indicates that about 4.6 million (more than 1 in 15) had been infected by then, which is consistent. This is more than a seventeen-fold increase during the lockdown. From this, a doubling rate can be extrapolated and then applied to the overall population to estimate how long until the entire country will have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Instead of doing that, I'm simply going to state what is less obvious. As the "one out of every ___" gets to be closer to 100% infection, the R0 naturally diminishes simply due to each person having fewer uninfected hosts to infect. Also, it goes from 50% infected to 100% infected just as fast as it has been doubling when the numbers were far smaller. Today, 1 in 12 Italians have been infected by the coronavirus, according to this estimate.

abandonconflict said:

No I actually posted the current data from worldmeters.info. Believe it or not, it's 2020 and the world is connected. China's lying for sure and some stuff well we just might have to go with data from a few hours ago, but it's at your fingertips.

I used the peer reviewed German study to extrapolate those estimates. I'll post again if you're having trouble understanding it. I underlined a few parts to help you out.

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So how are they testing all these dead people when we can't test all of our alive people?

I am not quite sure what point you are trying to make pointing at all that information. Because it is about if you are healthy, minimize your contact to outside sources of infection. By staying home you do this. Sure if people are sick, they are hacking it all over themselves nonstop, and mostly people will be ok, but the ones that don't, die, and go horribly efficiently (virus-wise). And it is very taxing for everyone of the people that come in with this, because it puts the people in contact with them to catch it.

Not that we don't need to figure out a way around this, and life will continue.

hanimmal said:

I am not quite sure what point you are trying to make pointing at all that information.

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God fucking forbid you absorb some info.

abandonconflict said:

God fucking forbid you absorb some info.

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I can absorb information just fine. But pretending that this information is somehow uniform and complete is not really the point you are trying to make right it seems.

doublejj said:

View attachment 4539926

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You are gonna see a lot of that, the dead can rest in peace, for as long as they or the words they leave behind, don't take anybody else with them. If you post on facebook, your obituary might end up there too. Someone is probably doing a bit of work on automatically matching posts with profiles against obituaries and death notices, it's an effective way to make a point and can be largely automated.

abandonconflict said:

So this German peer-reviewed study, dated April 6, concluded that only an average of 6% of cases worldwide were actually detected:

Information for the Media - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

Website of the Georg-August-University Göttingen

www.uni-goettingen.de

So if Italy had 9,172 confirmed cases on March 9, they would have had more than 260,000 actual infections at that time. The study estimates that Italy then had "around 3 million" (1 in 20 Italians infected) on March 31, three weeks ago. Sixteen days later, Italy eased its lockdown. On that day, April 15, there were 162,488 confirmed cases. This, according to the study indicates that about 4.6 million (more than 1 in 15) had been infected by then, which is consistent. This is more than a seventeen-fold increase during the lockdown. From this, a doubling rate can be extrapolated and then applied to the overall population to estimate how long until the entire country will have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Instead of doing that, I'm simply going to state what is less obvious. As the "one out of every ___" gets to be closer to 100% infection, the R0 naturally diminishes simply due to each person having fewer uninfected hosts to infect. Also, it goes from 50% infected to 100% infected just as fast as it has been doubling when the numbers were far smaller. Today, 1 in 12 Italians have been infected by the coronavirus, according to this estimate.

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abandonconflict said:

No. Don't ever fucking do that shit again. You show your work. Besides, you're just pulling numbers from your ass. Each of those numbers in my post are from the study and from today's stats on worldmeters.info. Don't be fuckin sloppy. Conservative math is one thing, that shit you did is a fucking insult.

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dude you are pulling number out of your arse in just as bad a way to support your confirmation bias that somehow your the stoner genius that knows more about whats going on than the lead epidemiologists who are dealing with this shitstorm we're currently living in

even if your BoE calculations are correct and 1 in 12 italians have caught corona then there still is nowhere near heard immunity (60%+). there is a long LONG slog before full lockdown can be released

now you posted another thread about everything that can go wrong will go wrong

just wait till you guys have to swallow a 2 trillion dollar stimulus bill to fight corona (shut down economy long enough to drop number sufficiently for testing and tracing to occur) and yeah you are gonna be swallowing that big tax payout for big business...

but then genius internet warriors decide they know more than the experts and their stoned calculations trump the models run by the top universities and scientists (this is a global rush to try to fix it)

anyway these geniuses are gonna be enough to push back enough that your lockdown will drop and you will have all the losses of the 2 trillion stimulus for big business. and absolutely none of the benefits of having a sufficient lockdown to drop numbers enough for tracing to happen





just a quick question how much has your portfolio been hit by this crisis?

hanimmal said:

I am not sure why you feel it is necessary to tell me to not do that, but I will go one step even further and say we don't necessarily have enough information to think we have good enough data to know what is going on just yet.

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But, but, the curve, Man, the curve ...

it's flattening!

doublejj said:

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Like the Beatles said,
.
Instant Karma's gonna get you
Gonna knock you right on the head
You better get yourself together
Pretty soon you're gonna be dead

Fauci said his message to the protesters is that “this is something that is hurting from the standpoint of economics” but that re-opening too soon could cause even more harm. His comments on ABC’s “Good Morning America” contrasted with remarks made by President Donald Trump, who has encouraged the protests.

doublejj said:

Fauci said his message to the protesters is that “this is something that is hurting from the standpoint of economics” but that re-opening too soon could cause even more harm. His comments on ABC’s “Good Morning America” contrasted with remarks made by President Donald Trump, who has encouraged the protests.

Fauci tells protesters no recovery if virus not 'under control'

Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the White House coronavirus task...

www.sfgate.com

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Dr Fauci operates on a near genius level, and Trump on that of a moron. Just 8% of the public think Fauci is full of shit, so that must include 30% of Donald's own base. The trumpers are showing signs of disunity over this, some of those 60+ guys must be thinking twice, potential death is a powerful bitch slap back to reality. When ya see your peers in the obit all the time, it makes a fellow think a bit more.

ginjawarrior said:

even if your BoE calculations are correct and 1 in 12 italians have caught corona then there still is nowhere near heard immunity (60%+). there is a long LONG slog before full lockdown can be released

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1) it's not "mine". I followed the estimate in the German study.
2) at this rate it's two weeks away
3)they lifted the lock down a week ago.

rollitup said:

But, but, the curve, Man, the curve ...

it's flattening!

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Which one?

abandonconflict said:

1) it's not "mine". I followed the estimate in the German study.
2) at this rate it's two weeks away
3)they lifted the lock down a week ago.

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define "lockdown"

are you claiming italy is back to normal now?

ginjawarrior said:

define "lockdown"

are you claiming italy is back to normal now?

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The fact here is that the flattening of the logarithmic curve on Italy's new cases per day graph coincided with the easing of the measures. Cases grew seventeen fold during the lockdown. The number of new cases per day continued to rise dramatically and did not begin to inflect until 20+ days after the lockdowns, much longer than the average incubation period. They did not flatten until the 15th, when people were largely allowed to go back to work. No of course Italy is not back to "normal", maybe never will be. What I'm saying is that the lockdowns had no appreciable effect on the curve. Arguably, they have not flattened at all, seeing as how a logarithmic curve tends to flatten due to the points higher on the graph representing larger numbers. It's actually rigged to flatten.

Compare:

These curves have remarkably similar trajectories. One of these countries decided not to force people to stay indoors.

The reason it is so important to open the economies, especially in the US and Europe, is that those are the world's net exporters of food.

abandonconflict said:

The fact here is that the flattening of the logarithmic curve on Italy's new cases per day graph coincided with the easing of the measures. Cases grew seventeen fold during the lockdown. The number of new cases per day continued to rise dramatically and did not begin to inflect until 20+ days after the lockdowns, much longer than the average incubation period

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what the fuck do you mean italy's new cases per day kept rising dramatically for 20+ days??


9th of march italy went into lockdown with 1797 new cases that day

italy peaked at new cases per day 12 days later on the 21st of march with 6557 new cases per day completley inline with when the lockdown started

your premise is wrong from the start

ginjawarrior said:

what the fuck do you mean italy's new cases per day kept rising dramatically for 20+ days??

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

9th of march italy went into lockdown with 1797 new cases that day

italy peaked at new cases per day 12 days later on the 21st of march with 6557 new cases per day completley inline with when the lockdown started

your premise is wrong from the start

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On day was slightly higher. It's not an appreciable inflection. Cases per day continued to be recorded above 5.5k for another two weeks. One day beign an outlier is not a graphical inflection. It's an increase of tests. The fact is that total cases increased 17 fold during the lockdown.

abandonconflict said:

On day was slightly higher. It's not an appreciable inflection. Cases per day continued to be recorded above 5.5k for another two weeks.

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no they didnt

march 21st cases per day peaked

march 29th dropped to 5217 cases per day and hasnt come close since

Daily COVID-19 tests per 1,000 people

7-day rolling average. Comparisons across countries are affected by differences in testing policies and reporting methods.

ourworldindata.org

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that doesnt support your bullshit either

ginjawarrior said:

no they didnt

march 21st cases per day peaked

march 29th dropped to 5217 cases per day and hasnt come close since


that doesnt support your bullshit either

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It shows clearly why that one day was an outlier. That's why the graph didn't inflect. The fact is, cases skyrocketted, seventeen-fold during the lockdown. The graphs look the same in many other countries with lockdowns and one without.

3 countries implemented no such lockdowns and got it under control much faster. Those were South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

You're also completely ignoring the very reason for the lockdowns in the first place, which was to reduce the fatality rate by keeping the number of new cases (curve apex) below the threshold (healthcare capacity) which particularly in Italy, it did not. By zooming in on one outlier record of number of cases to the point of myopic nit-picking, you've avoided the entire argument. The curve did not flatten sufficiently to reduce the fatality rate and people died, alone, at home.

I have already stated, many times that the lockdown might have reduced cases, very slightly, but definitely not sufficiently and in fact, you can't even prove they did. Other factors may account for that very slight decrease in viral reproduction which doesn't even coincide well with the lockdown.

abandonconflict said:

It shows clearly why that one day was an outlier. That's why the graph didn't inflect. The fact is, cases skyrocketted, seventeen-fold during the lockdown. The graphs look the same in many other countries with lockdowns and one without.

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so your just going to pretend that you didnt just cliam that itally had rate over 5.5k daily new cases for weeks even though you were clearly and demonstrably wrong??????

why the fuck should i pay attention to anything you have to say if you cannot get basics like that right?

3 countries implemented no such lockdowns and got it under control much faster. Those were South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

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those countries went heavy on the contact tracing and testing early on while they still were able to

numbers in the usa are way way to high to do that now you missed your chance unless you can get the numbers way back down again

You're also completely ignoring the very reason for the lockdowns in the first place, which was to reduce the fatality rate by keeping the number of new cases (curve apex) below the threshold (healthcare capacity) which particularly in Italy, it did not.

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yeah unfortunatley they initiated their lockdown a week or so too late..

By zooming in on one outlier record of number of cases to the point of myopic nit-picking, you've avoided the entire argument.

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you want to have a sensible disscusion about then then it up to you to not fall flat on your face at the first hurdle with bullshit numbers that you plainly made up to support your bullshit

The curve did not flatten sufficiently to reduce the fatality rate and people died, alone, at home.

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they jumped in with the lockdowns a week to late

I have already stated, many times that the lockdown might have reduced cases, very slightly, but definitely not sufficiently and in fact, you can't even prove they did.

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i dont need to prove a fucking thing i just need to sit back and watch the lockdowns have the same result everywhere they are implemented which is a drop in new cases in about 10 - 12 days after lockdown starts

exactly the same as what happened in italy contrary to your bullshit numbers


and you never did answer my fucking question....

how hard has your portfoio been ht by this crisis???